Uh g-guys, anyone else have a really bad feeling about the crypto

>>2497768
you can't time the market friend. you can try with a high enough degree of probability but you can never be certain.

I'm feeling the same way about Digibyte. It's been going sideways for a while and while it has the potential to be the top crypto, that is still a few months to a year out.

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>>2497781
>it has the potential to be the top crypto

>>2497781
It was fun 8 months ago at 50 sat or some shit but come on.

>top crypto

>>2497768
Yes there is much uncertainty right now but if you stick to some solid holds you'll make it through

>>2497768
Bitcoin is crashing hard and bringing everything else with it. The only good time to invest is when the prices are stable.

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>>2497768
It's not going to just pump forever. We are in a bubble now and it's a part of a natural cycle for it to reverse over time. Im expecting bitcoin will suffer a significant drop in price due to current investors pulling their money out and a lack of new buyers in the coming weeks. Combine that with the possible fork in august, the smaller profit margins to be made, the higher risks people have to take, and the lack of new exciting projects will decrease the ammount of money coming in and cause the market to reverse. Especially since this whole bubble was built up on speculation of coins and people trying to get rich quick. I mean the level of absurdity this thing has reached is hilarious when you see coins like bitbean mooning.

Well I just cashed out my initial investment for USDT. Gives me some peace of mind and I have still lots of money to play around with in crypto. Might cash out some more as August 1 approaches.

>>2498006

This analysis is an attempt to guage BTC based on its function as value transfer vs. its daily Tx volume.

In other words, it is overvalued if its price exceeds the normal functional utility (of transfers). Its traded many times this ratio in the past and so the conclusion was that it is not in a bubble at all at its current price.

Personally, speaking as someone who does natural science and dealing exponential yield curves, any point in the logarithmic phase of a sigmoid growth curve will appear steep. Crypto is justifiably in the logarithmic growth phase. From a linear perspective a top will always seem near when in fact each new "top" reveals another "top" and this is exactly what you see in the price history.

But I encourage you, if you feel you need further education, cash out, and then watch prices rise.

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>>2498228
>Crypto is justifiably in the logarithmic growth phase. From a linear perspective a top will always seem near when in fact each new "top" reveals another "top" and this is exactly what you see in the price history.

You're wrong and maybe you should re-evaluate the price history. People use to buy bitcoin to use now the whole thing is a speculative bubble with pepole using it as a pyramid scheme hoping more people will buy it to sell at a higher price. They don't give a shit about the technology. 90% of the people investing probably don't even know what a blockchain is. You're delusional is and when this thing crashes like everything that follows the basic laws of economics you will get your own educational lesson in the form of an actual monetary loss.

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>>2498228
From a linear perspective a top will always seem near when in fact each new "top" reveals another "top" and this is exactly what you see in the price history.

>>2498424

Bitcoins market share is falling, that is different from price or even market cap.

For example, CocaCola produced incredible growth and YoY profits for decades despite having a shrinking market share and growing market cap.

Anyone who thought, oh, Coke's market share is falling and sold early left a lot of money on the table.

>>2498397
>You're wrong and maybe you should re-evaluate the price history. People use to buy bitcoin to use now the whole thing is a speculative bubble with pepole using it as a pyramid scheme hoping more people will buy it to sell at a higher price. They don't give a shit about the technology. 90% of the people investing probably don't even know what a blockchain is. You're delusional is and when this thing crashes like everything that follows the basic laws of economics you will get your own educational lesson in the form of an actual monetary loss.

The model is an attempt to create some sort of metric for evaluating the proposition that "BTC is in a 'bubble'. "

That is a viable alternative, in my opinion, to the general proposition that "what goes up must come down" and "prices that rise eventually fall" and other sayings and truisms that people use to guide their decision making. These are merely shortcuts leading you to end up exactly where you are.

Its psychologically comforting to construct a narrative to justify choices in the face of uncertainty. The challenge is precisely to avoid doctrinaire thinking in terms of strategy going forward, though. If your judgement is that you will lose money, then test that hypothesis by selling short.

The danger is that this thinking leads you to "time the market" which is a fallacy which has a lot of support. You cannot reliably predict the outcome of a stochastic system but trends have their own interias. Which is why in my opinion and strategy is to rely on the fundamentals, and less so the technicals. You want to trade the trends not the day to day price moves. You are looking for value and price movements do not equal value.

Man have you seen the market cap chart for all the altcoins? It's crazy vertical recently. How much sexier can that chart get before people get nervous

>>2498397

Every chart looks like that if you include the entire scope.

AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, COKE... etc.

Doesn't prove its a bubble.

>>2498667

>Its psychologically comforting to construct a narrative to justify choices in the face of uncertainty.

This discribes you well.. and I'm sorry you bought the ATH. I already sold my bitcoins at $3000 so what do I have to lose motherfucker? Keep talking out your ass with with your pseudo intellectual bullshit. You clearly know jack shit about economics and sound like you just stumbled onto this board two weeks ago.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/speculativebubble.asp

Sounds like it's time to start buying

>>2498006

the problem with that graph is that it is a line and a bunch of psychological terms that invites the viewer to imagine a relationship between the two.

I am sure that human psychology and all the emotions are at work in all the decisions by everyone in the market. Fortunately for the markets, what one perceives as danger another sees as opportunity.

The fallacy is arguing from that general proposition to the specific prediction of a putative future mass panic sell-off. Good counterarguments can be found in prior episodes of BTC sell-offs where short decreases in price and increases in volume were followed by relatively rapid price recovery and continuance of the trend.

Sometimes there is a compelling "reason" or "source" given for such a prediction. As usual this doesn't mean much other than it may be somewhat more compelling than basic market mechanics or stochastic swing momentum. Yes, if a nuclear war breaks out or is immanent, maybe there is a reason to adjust a long-term position. But people predicting cryptos demise are arguing from a weak position. All they have to point out is cryptos relatively recent strength... not too compelling. But by all means sell your coins and see where prices go.

>>2498768

You sound butthurt.

>sold my bitcoins at $3000

This is your big move? Nice. So you bought back back in at the bottom? And then caught the LTC wave? Maybe no? Because you're clinging to your fantasy of a market crash and now butthurt from missing out on mad gains?

>>2498783
Tl;dr also it's already fallen another $75 since you've been blabbering on with your drivel.

>>2498776
You should buy now! It's only going up from here. $1,000,000 bitcoin by 2020. It will be the global currency. Everyone will bow down and all the NEETS and neckbeards will rule the world.

>>2498228
In english please poindexter

>>2497768
>muh feelings
nice woman tier logic faggot

trading on emotions makes you lose a lot of money, btw

>>2498817
>fallen another $75

Well within average daily swings, so? My whole point is price moves aren't useful in predicting trends but if it screams SELL SELL SELL to you, then by all means do so

>>2497768
I feel the same anon. Both BTC and ETH look overpriced af, too many ICOs, and too many new investors who can't even tell what a blockchain is. This shit is gonna burst hard.

>>2498570
bitcoin isn't a fucking company though

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Having a piss poor performance lately.

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>>2498228
>From a linear perspective a top will always seem near when in fact each new "top" reveals another "top" and this is exactly what you see in the price history.
aka the-increasingly-big-spoons model

>>2498898
Is there any hope of skipping the stagnant portion? I really, really needed the money this summer.

>>2498887
>>2498397
>too many new investors who can't even tell what a blockchain is
you're acting like this is a bad thing lol

>>2498893
>bitcoin isn't a fucking company though

The point is that a lot of things can contribute to a price, market cap being a metric that has limited importance.

>>2498946
>Is there any hope of skipping the stagnant portion? I really, really needed the money this summer.

No risk, no reward. A job can provide a lot of value with very little risk, you should consider doing anything.

>>2498898

Big Dipper and Little Dipper

>>2498998
>The point is that a lot of things can contribute to a price, market cap being a metric that has limited importance.
Oh then yes

BTC IS ABOUT TO CRASH EVERYONE LOOK AT POLONIEX QUICK.

SELL SELL SELL.

>>2499051
I actually just sold because of you fags hahahaha. It will be at 3000 tomorrow.

Run a Bitcoin full node with UASF SegWit signaling to save Bitcoin

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>>2497768

Yeah, back on Thursday/Friday we were finishing up the regular scheduled sell off, and the volume and price was picking up nicely, made a nice 25% gain buying on Friday and holding all through Saturday, and then on the night of Sunday, my stop loss gets set off. And the fucking thing keeps plunging which is unusual. The sell-off may deepen on Monday.

This is unusual lads. I've withdrawn everything to fiat right now.

Anyone care to speculate on this new trend?

https://bitcoin.org/en/full-node
http://www.uasf.co/

It's easy. Takes about 140 GB disk space.
Every node helps.
Unless you don't care about Bitcoin's demise.

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>>2498006

>I mean the level of absurdity this thing has reached is hilarious when you see coins like bitbean mooning.

Don't pick on Bitbean, at least it's mostly worthless.

Observe ETH for peak absurdity. Not ONE fucking use for it, or smart contracts, and its worth more than actual companies which employees, product, factories and cash flow.

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Almost 50%

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>>2497768
I haven't been on /biz/ lately because I was too busy with some irl stuff, so I don't know if there have been some developments or whatever that would make chart analysis be inaccurate for the short-term right now, but I've been minding the charts for BTC and ETH, and if you look at the current buttcoin chart but zoomed out to show at least the past two years, it looks DISTURBINGLY close to picrelated up to the "return to normal" phase. Obviously this is not good for altcoins either, since a lot of them are "pegged" to BTC when calculating their fiat value.

There's also the FUD about the fork to happen this August. Since the entire altcoin market is dependent on BTC working in order to function, the period when the fork is implemented and no BTC will be able to be traded is going to be a shitshow. People will probably be having "bank runs" on the exchanges during the week prior too, trying to get out of the altcoin market before the fork, and we all know how well that goes *cough* Coinbase *cough*

I'm more concerned about ETH though, both because it's the coin I have the most investment in right now, and also because I'm starting to hear about ETH from people who have zero involvement with cryptocurrency, or for that matter with investing in general. I remember someone on this board saying that the time to pull out is when normies catch wind of ETH, so looks like now is the time.

A lot of people are spending money on ETH right now because its dollar value on Coinbase is shown to be mooning. But if you check its BTC value chart on other exchanges, it's somewhat constant, with the usual ebbs and flows that we remember from when it was $50. I see this and think "Why is this?", then I go over to the BTC to normiebux chart and it looks almost exactly the same as the ETH to normiebux chart. People here used to say that ETH's fluctuations are independent of BTC, but as of right now, if BTC sinks then ETH will go down with it, at least in the short term.

>>2501009 (Cont.)
I think the fork might bring a lot of potential for the flippening to take place, bit it's not gonna be soon and this August is going to be too much of a mess because of the fork. Basically, the fork is causing the uncertainty, and the fact that you can't run from it except unless you pull the plug and convert everything back to fiat is causing the fear to go along with that uncertainty.

If anything I said here is incorrect, please correct me, I really want to be wrong with my pessimistic views of what's to come in the coming months.

>>2501009
>>2501086

The most disturbing thing to me is holding USDT.

I have no idea how this fucking scam is going to behave under stress when people run for the exits.

>>2501086
I'd say you're pretty spot on
as long as anon pulled out whatever they put in and then some, all will be well with the world
what worries me is the recent influx of inexperienced folks with expectations of incredible gains, which will spell tragedy to many of them irl
a festival can't be going on all the time

I expect crypto to turn into something more utility-oriented instead of shitcoin pnd shillfest which serves no purpose

>>2501191
People unironically hold Tether? Why?

>>2501233

Because Mt. Polo has ZERO fiat/crypto exchange pairs...

Honestly, Poloniex is going to fucking crash the entire crypto environment.

>>2501009
People spammed that stupid chart on May 26th because the real graph looked EXACTLY like it when overlayed on top. Surprise, nothing happened, because markets have no obligation to follow meme charts.

That said, I'm not saying you should be optimistic.

If normies are learning about crypto, that's the time when you should be IN crypto. But my impression is that a normie boom isn't happening (it happened and slowed down for the moment).

>>2497768
that's actually a healthy sign, When there is no fear, only greed, that is when you sell everything and watch it crash. As long as there is skepticism and uncertainty than this has more room to run.