Hi /biz/, I have a question for the economists and economy nerds:

Also because we are in /biz/, how do we (the little shrimp in the ocean) profit from these changes?

>>2036389
I dunno if the effects of clean energy will be that noticeable for at least a decade. Also remember that OPEC still is a cartel so they can offset any reduction in demand by drastically reducing output, now if the US become less dependent on oil they probably will produce less domestically which is good for OPEC because it means there are less producers outside of the cartel.

> Is the gradual push around the world for renewable and environmentally friendly energy going to radically reshape the value of the American dollar, and is that why that sector is being supported (as a safety net)?
Not sure what you mean. By that, ohrase question another way?

Personally i'd buy into rare earth metal miners and derivatives if I had the knowledge and money.

>>2036406
What I mean is: the US and Saudia Arabia's petrodollar is becoming more obsolete when we shift away from oil. Is this why the US has a considerable stake in making sure they lead the clean energy sector? I understand it isn't very linear thinking because just because clean energy offsets the petrol dollar doesn't mean it has anything to do with USD.

But I suppose the first question I should have asked is will this destroy the USD's non backed system? I guess not right?

>>2036406
Also, you mean they can hold their stock to calibrate with demand, but isn't this just borrowed time (assuming eventually we do go green)? Won't OPEC fade away as well?

>>2036419
I'm having a hard time discerning what you're thinking but that's probably just a vocabulary thing so sorry if my response isn't what you want:

Firstly I think you're looking at the US as a monolithic player, not as a complicated marketplace with lots of different players. For example, Car Manufactuerers know they have to build EVs (Electric Vehicles) eventually, but they are reluctant to do it on a short timeframe because they want to spread out their R&D costs over time.

Meanwhile overall a good policy for the US is to reduce oil dependence to prevent inflation and keep control of their economy, but a swift change is being thwarted by Car Manufactures, people with indirect Petroleum interests like the Koch Brothers, and a whole multiplicity of actors

On the other hand you have Elon Musk and a whole bunch of newcomers to the energy field who can see that eventually -- because oil is finite, and we hit Peak Oil in the 70's -- that if they can get their foot-in-the-door o the energy market there is a huge return for them.

China is another actor you haven't mentioned, China doesn't have much domestic oil reserves, unlike the US...that's why they are leading clean energy, they don't give a fuck about the environment, it's all about self-reliance.

As for Saudi Arabia, that's an interesting one, the new generation of Sheiks want to diversify and liberalize the economy (and to an extent the religious laws) but there's a lot of headwind to doing that.

TL;DR - Don't short oil just yet. Carefully pick long term clean energy investments for mad games. Watch GM, FCA, and Ford very carefully.

>>2036389
Ok, understand that economics is just human ecology.

next understand that ALL 'sustainable' energy is produced using petroleum products- whether it's the machines used to mine and transport uranium or the factories building solar cells and electric cars- they all use petroleum products. So ALL 'alternative' energy relies on petroleum to exist. None of the are self-sustaining and none of them ever will be.

Next understand that fossil fuels are the CHEAPEST and most common fuel we know of and probably will be for the next 200-500 years.

Finally realize that fossil fuels feed ONE HALF of the world's human population directly by the Haber-Bosch process for making fertilizer from natural gas.

Once you know these things you realize petroleum is CHEAP, and our society will collapse without it. No matter what alternative sources we find. Because all the alternatives are actually powered and produced by petroleum. There is literally no question of petroleum being replaced in whole or part. Even if we find ways to use it more efficiently that will just mean more people will be born, supporting the demand and thus the price.

This isn't a real question, when we stop using fossil fuels 3/4ths of humanity or more will die. At that point currency won't have any value. None of it will.

>>2036452
Thank you anon. That was informative.

>>2036474
This is very eye opening, thank you.

>>2036389
>can I profit from oil
Only if you are a big player and you know what you are doing.
Many PhDs in my business school agree that commodities are almost always manipulated by big producers, example:
Enel selling options, which is why if you take a position against Enel you most likely will lose money because they can manipulate the market. The only way to profit here is to 'get' info from insiders and mirror the position of commodity producers capable of price manipulation.

>what are the consequences of renewable
Renewable energy, together with newfound efficiency in production will most likely drive governments to act on market inefficiencies such as over supply. People are already getting that the march to renewable MUST be planned out correctly if that's the macro objective, which goes against the market himself.

>my dollar
The strength of the dollar mirrors American sovereign debt solvency. You can start to be concerned when banks will sell dollars because of negative expectations in exchange rates.

>>2036493
You're welcome.

to put it in some perspective-
there were ~3/4ths of a million electric vehicles sold worldwide in 2016
The same year there were ~3/4ths of a million people born IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS of the same year.

Even if we ramped up electric car sales by 182 TIMES current rates we'd only be keeping up with populations. This isn't sustainable. For one thing we don't have enough petroleum to build, transport, and produce electricity for that many cars.
And we never will.

>>2036389
This guy >>2036406 is sort of wrong. OPEC has lost a lot of it's power due to advances in horizontal drilling and development in Shale. The US and Russia are produce more Oil and Natural gas than they know what to do with it. The Saudis tried to keep pumping out oil to bankrupt US operations but this hurt other OPEC countries so they slowed down.

>>2036452
>We hit peak oil in the 70's
What are they teaching kids in school, oil production is higher than it's ever been, we haven't hit a "peak oil" when you consider only about 10 - 15 % of oil is recovered from conventional horizontal wells. This also ignores areas that are known to have oil deposits, but countries refuse to drill in the areas, like the Eastern Seaboard of the US.

>>2036389
Middle East involvement isn't solely due to resources. It also has to do with political strategy. Israel has nukes and a massive lobby in the US, and Saudi Arabi has the Islamic holy cities, which makes them our "allies". The US navy also has to be active in the region to combat piracy due to the high volume of trade that goes through the strait of Hormuz. The military industrial complex is a buzzword that's overused and describes virtually every other industry that relies on government contracted work.

>>2036533
>The US and Russia are produce more Oil and Natural gas than they know what to do with
this in a nutshell.

and even if the price goes through the roof we'll just start tapping the more expensive sources. Because even at 10 times its current price it's still the cheapest major source of energy we know of.

>>2036505
>>2036518
>>2036533


You guys are all expanding the ways I think about these things. I have not studied the subject but am now interested in doing so.