I'm 100% certain that Theresa May will win the UK Election

>>1967391
create a TMAY coin ;)

>>1967391
>I'm 100% certain that Theresa May will win the UK Election this June
>>1967391
>All the betting sites have already priced in high probabilities of her winning, so the payout return is very low...
No shit, that's how betting works you mongoloid.

>>1967391
>But how can I profit big out of this?
short the pound lmao

>>1967399
>No shit, that's how betting works you mongoloid.

They're not always right. They were wrong about Brexit and Trump by a huge margin - payout returns were 600% if you got in on the final day

>>1967391
Just watch what GBP/(euro and usd) do as the results come out and join the trend.

>>1967400
>>1967404

When you mean short the pound, do you mean the pound going down relative to the dollar i.e. 1.25 to 1.20 ?

>>1967403
Yeah except this time it looks like they're right -- so what can you expect to gain from it?

>>1967408
(Currency pairs are given as how much of the first currency it takes to by 1 unit of the second currency)

Yes, using your example, if GBP/USD decreases from 1.25 to 1.20, you'll want to short.

1.086 on bet365.. yeah true value there

>>1967415
nothing from betting sites by the looks of it.

I'll try looking into shorting GBPUSD.

Though I don't understand why exactly the pound would drop making UK exports cheaper compared to other countries?

>>1967408
>i.e. 1.25 to 1.20

i.e 1.25 to <1.00

You can see that due to the Brexit drop that already happened. The market has already revealed its true reaction to the whole Brexit stuff and it's obvious that it will be repeated once she wins the re-election and solidifies the anti-EU position. Coupled with that comes the anticipation of capital and labor flight to the EU which makes it more than obvious what the panic will result into.

And since we're speaking about the GBP/USD pair specifically, yes, the wars the US is about to get itself into if all the geopolitical predictions and rumors come true will skyrocket the dollar against any pair, so that's even more incentive to short the GBP/USD pair. I'd diversify with EUR/USD and long on Gold as well

>>1967425
>The market has already revealed its true reaction to the whole Brexit stuff and it's obvious that it will be repeated once she wins the re-election and solidifies the anti-EU position.

Wait I don't get why investors want to short the pound making UK exports cheaper which will give a boost to the FTSE 100. Looks like a win-win or am I missing something?

>>1967418
correction here: currency pairs are read as how much of the second currency you could buy with one dollar of the first currency.

>>1967433
It doesn't work that way. While the pound will technically make them cheaper, the export towards the EU and the imports from EU will become more expensive after the exit (there might even be tariffs depending on how hard will the EU sperg out) and the UK is currently exporting about 35-40% towards the EU if I'm not mistaken. Additionally, if there are no further complications and if the EU is merciful towards the UK, the issue of volume throughput of the ports exists as well (since it's a literal island with no land connections) which means that supply chains coming and going towards the UK will be (significantly) slower due to the mandatory customs offices checking all EU trucks, which means that those chains will flee to the EU so they can be fully based around the Schengen Area (which the UK isn't a part of nor will ever be). The point of the EU was to specifically remove those borders so the trucks aren't slowed down when traveling between members, which would otherwise damage a supply chain and make it highly uncompetitive when compared to the unified US interstate for an example. Slower transport of input/output goods => higher price => lower inventory emptying speed => far lower profitability => bad business.

That's just a few of the important issues and there are many more, such as geopolitical issues like the uncertainty of Scotland or the growing isolationism of the US which means that the UK is about to be left alone, but I cba writing 5 posts explaining them. The tl;dr is "there's way too much uncertainty regarding this whole Brexit stuff and it's not of the optimistic kind".

Maycoin incoming.

>>1967391

she is 1/10. 10% ROI

why are you being greedy?

>>1967472
>That's just a few of the important issues and there are many more, such as geopolitical issues like the uncertainty of Scotland or the growing isolationism of the US which means that the UK is about to be left alone, but I cba writing 5 posts explaining them. The tl;dr is "there's way too much uncertainty regarding this whole Brexit stuff and it's not of the optimistic kind".

But Trump's u-turned to being full neo-con in the last month.

>>1967508
Yes, which is why I told you to go long on USD (i.e short GBP/USD or EUR/USD). The Fed will never allow economic instability during a war and will inject the economy (the military-industrial complex rather) with as much dollars as it's needed. When the war ends and the inflation becomes apparent, however..

>>1967391
is it just me or does she have nice legs