Level with me, /biz/, could the United States win a trade

>>1653027
The Chinese are too economically in bed with us to win (http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/34733/why-china-wont-dump-us-debt) and either way, we could probably just curb our agriculture exports and watch things fall apart.

Just because only 2% of Americans work in agriculture doesn't mean that we don't export the most corn in the world. Plus, China is a powder keg, they wouldn't risk a trade war. As soon as people stop buying Chinese steel, they have to close factories and people lose jobs and when people lose jobs and can't do anything about it (since China is authoritarian), they get pissed.

China itself already has massive demographic problems to deal with.

>>1653027

I should have added this in the OP but I personally think we maybe might have a chance in the long run but since China is an authoritarian government and the US is democratically elected we will lose since China just needs to wait at max 2 years for the next election and whichever party is in control dictating the trade war will be voted out of office since the US population really won't stand for increased prices of goods and other hardships resulting from the trade war.

>>1653030
>we could probably just curb our agriculture exports and watch things fall apart

True, but China mines and produces ~80-90% of all rare earth elements which are critical in many electronics and heavy industry. They've threatened cutting supplies in the past and in an actual trade war they would no doubt do so.

I don't know, there's a lot of ways each of us could fuck the other up.

>>1653036
If China were a normal market economy, they would've curbed their manufacturing sector's output a long time ago. That's why there's so much pressure in steel markets, because the Chinese have kept producing even in an unprofitable environment. Why?

Because, the government needs to keep people employed. As soon as people lose their jobs in China, they're going to revolt. The whole justification for post-Deng authoritarian rule in China has been the promise of economic prosperity, which at the most basic level means comfy jobs. Take away those jobs and the people are going to go out and revolt since they can't vote out their leaders (>>1653034 said this).

That doesn't even get into the ethnic tensions that we could utilize. China may deny rare earth metals to us, but how would they fare with a Vietnam 2.0 in Tibet with American-armed revolutionaries?

>>1653094

Tibets really the tip of the iceberg... we should be sending all of our ISIS boys to East Turkestan and see what happens

>>1653030
America needs to keep dumping its agricultural products on foreign markets to keep its agricultural sector in business and profitable.
America cutting off its agricultural exports would just benefit other nations to step in.

>>1653094
China isn't a normal market economy. They can and will do things which seem crazy

>>1653027

Well you got to take a couple of things in consideration.

1. Mutual dependance:
US sends quite a lot to China. And it's the biggest growing market in the world. Most companies want to invest in China.
China is depended for jobs from US companies (although not exclusively).

The US relies for a shit ton. Steel, food, Electronics, rare steels, investements, etcetera. Far more than China on US

2. Fragility of economy

The US has a quite robust economy. But the US taxes all it's citizens wherever they might live. On the order hand te US relies heavely on import from goods of US companies. Think ford in Mexico. US companies would see their margins plunder. Prices would need to rise only to keep some margin. Inflation would be synonymous with the US economy.

China has a fragile economy. It has a growing bubble just waiting to burst. On the other side a trade war could lead to actual war. So steel and other things might be in high demand.

3. People

Americans are extremely patriotic. But aren't used to what Chinese are. They know what hunger and war are. The Chinese culture is all about community. They will rally around the common enemy "the Orange Menace".

Western culture is all about individuality. Most probably a lot of protest. The US would split itself between against China and the Thanks, Trump! (a play on Thanks Obama!)

Who would win? No one. At least not China or the US. I would argue Europe or Africa.

>>1653164
>Chinese are going to rally around the common enemy

Have you ever heard of Tianamen Square? The whole post-Deng Chinese authoritarian policy has been trading in your freedoms for economic prosperity/stability. You take the jobs out of the equations (say the US boycotts Chinese steel) and China has massive layoffs. There will be YUGE social instability, unlike anything seen before- worse than America and Europe during 2008. The worst thing that's happened in the United States recently has been the populist uprising in 2016 on the left and right. In China, there isn't a democracy that can capture that populism, so it naturally turns to revolution.

You think the Chinese government builds ghost cities and Eiffel tower replicas because they want to? They do it because they need to keep people working. And eventually, the whole thing is going to fall apart. America, for all its problems, at least (as you noted) has a robust economy. China is a bubble (again, as you stated) and it's even worse than that, their shadow banking should keep whoever runs the People's Bank of China up at night. China is a ticking time bomb economically, not to mention its demographics (there are 30 million+ more Chinese men than women- they aren't going to shitpost about >tfw no gf all day either) and its regional ties (Japan is re-arming and the US can easily unite the region against the Chinese).

America might have "thanks Trump" on the coasts, but what about Middle America? They voted in Trump when they lost their jobs, I'd imagine they'd vote in some Trump/Bush hybrid when they can't afford basic necessities because of the trade war.

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>>1653030
This.

Mutherfuckers know not to war with MERICA. not even a meme war.

Wow this thread is full of China myths. To be expected though.

OP, no one wins a trade war. No one benefits from world trade collapsing.

>>1654231
>no one wins a trade war. No one benefits from world trade collapsing.
Can you forward that to Trump? He didn't get the memo.

>>1653027

No but we could certainly renegotiate the trade deals so we don't get raped like we are.

>>1654237
But muh merica first meme

>>1653027
Yes, the US imports ~5x more than we export to them which translates rather literally to a trade war being 5x worse for China.

Besides, you can push upwards of even 30% tariffs without most consumers noticing. That $10 thing become, *gasp,* $13; a whole $3 more. The, "it adds up" argument is invalid because consumers don't meticulously calculate how much they're spending in aggregate over a period of time and buying things in piecemeal (read: you don't buy everything you're going to need for a year all at once) makes prices less noticeable.

>>1654231
THANK YOU!

>>1654237
What Trump says and what Trump does in the interest of financial self-preservation aren't necessarily the same.

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>>1653027
Trade War?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/23/inside-china-official-china-stock-crash-is-us-econ/

Sound familiar? Information warfare is as old as economic warfare. This past election taught me to stay out of conversations like this as I'm clueless on the topic, but:

We're in a trade war with China and always will be. -my $0.02