I am no economical expert, just want to hear /biz/'s opinion

>>1615397
they said they are going to raise rates in December im pretty sure.

>>1615401
They need to raise rates. Inflation expectation is most definitely trending higher, and the fed would love to have more options to combat the next recession.

>the second they increase them in any significant way won't the market all fucking crash?

I dont think that it necessarily has to be that dramatic. The fed is only going to raise rates by a quater point or so, and the sell off would indicate theres a better spot to park your money. I think we will see it come off the high's, but not an all out crash that some posters are calling for.

>>1615417
>The fed is only going to raise rates by a quarter point or so

So from my understanding, they are still keeping money cheap as fuck which will eventually still all ignite and make it worse?
Is the economy such shit that they can't keep interest rates at normal levels like we had before without impaling the entire economy?
So they lied for at minimum a year about raising rates and then raise them only a quarter of a percent? They sound scared as fuck.

I don't see how a quarter of a point in interest will do anything to the serious inflation that is already here and going to get worse.

To me it seems like there HAS to be a bubble in the economy (and USD?). One way bigger than before. I hope i'm wrong but if i'm not I'd rather have it now than later.
Or are we going to keep doubling our deficit every 8 years until Chinese stop buying our bullshit lies.

even the experts disagree on policy and people like to advocate for things which will cause their own personal interests to flourish. things just aren't growing like they need to and even with low unemployment % there are problems because the jobs aren't that good.

>>1615401
I'm betting only reason they didn't do it earlier is to prop Hillary up.

Trump is going to change the fed, took way too fucking long hope he gets it done.

A sustained rise in interest rates from these levels has never happened before.

Banking computers are all saying one thing the world over: sell bonds, and all it takes is the push of a button to execute billions of dollars with of trades.

My point is that we're just getting started. The ten year will blow past 3% by the end of the month.

>>1615441
Average American keeps doing worse and worse, saves less money, and at the same time cost of living continues to grow.

Automation is ice on the cake. Correction is coming very soon I think.

here's an inteesting article about the great bond massacre of 1994

I think this one will be 10x worse.

http://fortune.com/2013/02/03/the-great-bond-massacre-fortune-1994/

>>1615397
It really depends.

In my honest opinion, no. There are opportunities for growth abroad, and with a full republican congress regulations will be thrown aside left and right.

Recessions happen when an economy reaches a standstill and cannot expand. Because of how financial models work, a change in expected growth can make stock markets collapse.

So basically, expect there to be less taxation & regulation in the next 4 years which would lead to an expansion in the economy.

However, shit will hit the fan soon enough, I think we are okay for the next 2 years or so though. Valuations haven't gotten out of hand.

>>1615594
> I think we are okay for the next 2 years or so though

I hate that this is the way of thinking. Fed should RAISE RATES NOW. Why do they always fucking lie and delay?
The more the recession is delayed, the bigger the bubble and the bigger the catastrophe.

Millennials are so economically fucked beyond belief i'm surprised the panic hasn't already started.
We never even had a real recovery. I seriously think we are fucked but I want nothing more than it to happen right now.

No recession coming for a while, easily 5 yrs, and probably 7-10. I know that sounds ridiculous from a historical perspective...but the US has never had a demographic event like what we're now seeing.

BAby boomers are retiring in droves, and will continue to do so. So much of their savings is tied to investments. It would be an absolute fucking distaster if their nest eggs were decimated for the 2nd time in 10yrs. The govt won't allow it because they'll have to intervene with more social nets.

The best investment is ALWAYS in govt bailouts. This time it's going to a much larger bailout to prop up the entire market

>>1615697
I would be amazed if it took 5 years.
How much cheap money does it take?
Inflation will be ridiculous.

File: boss.jpg (6KB, 259x194px) Image search: [Google]

6KB, 259x194px

You know what to do

>>1615428
Remember when the stock market almost collapsed earlier this year because the fed raised the rates

The coming collapse will be at least 3 times bigger than 2008
And that is in a very optimistic scenario

The systemic risk of deutsche bank is still there and they have not improved, only their stock has gone up because of a false rumor

>>1615814
Buy gold? I'm seriously considering it.
New Zealand dollar? help me bros.

>>1615397
Until the government starts running much bigger deficits, there's unlikely to be enough inflation to justify raising interest rates. And when they do raise rates, they don't have to raise them enough to cause a recession. Recessions are without exception the result of policy failure.

>>1615877
Gold silver bitcoin and (and i'm not joking) a bit in ether
But mostly gold and silver

>>1615697
How does that make sense? Surely the Boomers are going to start liquidating their positions to fund retirement. On to your first point, it's already been 7 years since the last recession ended. I can't see it being another 7-10 years until the next one.

>>1615581
>http://fortune.com/2013/02/03/the-great-bond-massacre-fortune-1994/

Thank you anon

>>1616239
Seriously considering between Gold and Silver.

How do they differ in the economic climate?

>>1615581
Good read

>>1615581
Good stuff anon. Nice find.

>>1617552
Well soros and rothschild's etf are moving into gold
But the silver to gold price ratio is very low at the moment meaning silver should gain compared to gold

I have bought both in equal parts

>>1617552
>>1617911
And don't buy some certificates
If you decide to buy buy physical metals

If you can't touch it you don't own it (at least in a crisis)

>>1617916
Is this true?

Do people really have their hard assets stolen like this? Did this happen in 2008?

>>1618016
if shit got that fucked up , you would probably rather have the paper, to make a fire to warm yourself and your urine soup.

Pleb here, if they raise interest rates in December, is that good or bad for junior gold miner stocks?

>>1618034
Bad for them and everyone else!

>>1618051

As in the stock prices will go down immediately after, or the whole economy/world collapses and everyone is fucked anyways?

>>1618055
Certainly the first, though with Trump becoming president I can't completely rule out the second.

>>1615397
>The fed has kept rates way too low for way too long, the second they increase them in any significant way won't the market all fucking crash?
It's counter-intuitive but I hypothesise inflation will rise as a consequence of raising rates less than 1.5% per year. There is no chance the Fed will raise rates faster than 1.5% and at that rate the rate hikes won't be the reason for a crash. The federal government issued monetary leverage and ended up in a low-rate trap. The Fed's back is up against the wall, the only way out is inflation.
>1. Keep low rates for longer, suffer more inflation and make inevitable recession worse 2. Raise them and let the recession come while the market stabilizes to where it belongs.
Low rates won't cause inflation at this point because it's all relative to rates in other countries. What causes inflation is sustained high federal deficits.
>feel free to guess the magnitude and roughly when it will start.
If the great depression was a 8 at its' worst and the great recession was an 7 at its' worst then I guess it'll be a 7.2 and it'll start within 5 years.

>>1615397
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7fRPTAO8c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v9PjG5TThA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4iuwK4DL0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbIGUS5hfho

Inflation is relative; it's tough to achieve if every other fed in the developed world wants inflation as well. Both Europe and Japan have been chasing inflation using the same monetary policies as the US, and failed miserably. Partially because printing money to drive inflation doesn't work if the entire worlds money supply is increasing tandem. All it's accomplished is asset bubbles

>>1618031
Technology and infrastructure don't just dissapear into thin air

>>1618229
Inflation relative to other countries is devaluation of a currency
The whole world can very well experience inflation

>>1619414
>>1619674

>>1619414
Inflation is relative to the price of goods and services. It's always quite easy to achieve.

"inflation of a currency" is an oxymoronic phrase used by Austrian School economists to paper over one of the enormous holesmin the theoretical basis of their arguments.