what is the quick formula to check if you're going to be

>>1577188
What the fuck?

Yeah dude just do whatever you're doing

>>1577188
it's actually just a product of normal statistical distributions and how you define "success."

for example take the "1%er" meme.
Obviously only one percent of earners or owners fall in the top one percent. However that doesn't mean your odds of being in the top 1% of earners or owners is only 1%.

Because there is both upward and (more often) downward mobility, you'll find that about 3% of earners and owners will at some point reach the top 1%. From this you may surmise that at least 66.6% of those that achieve this summit won't stay there.

but as long as you measurably define "success" it's just a matter of calculating how many people are in that group, how many were born there, and how many will stay there. Pretty simple stuff.

that doesn't imply however that because there's a 3% chance a random person may become a multimillionaire that any individual person has a 3% chance. In reality the fraction that succeed are often near the top percentile in other qualities such as intelligence or testosterone levels or looks. There are specific factors that prevent the remaining 97% of people from achieving at the edges of the bell curve, and none of the factors is by itself predictive.

>>1577207
thanks for the answer

>>1577237
sorry if it's not what you wanted, but unless you're calculating the success of a trading algorithm you're going to run into human variables. Over time those human factors will dominate the equation.

even with automated trading you'll run into human variables though, since the market responds to humans at almost every level.

>>1577250
i agree. theres always going to be a significant margin of error for anything trade related. that being said, you can still get a pretty solid idea of where you're heading if your probabilities and reward/risk are based off of large enough sample size. i think its important for every trader to be honest with himself and look at this.

anyways i figured out the answer. i thought it was too simple for a while, but i was just overthinking and confusing myself.

multiply the ratio of probability of success:prob of fail by ratio of reward:risk
if its over 1, you'll continue to win
if its below 1, you'll continue to lose

>>1577332

Please put your equation to semi-practical use.

So far all i'm seeing is gibberish

>>1577188
total autismo-net expenses*faggotry

Did you make a profit after expenses?

yes?

then congrats, you suceeded

>>1577188
Honestly, take an IQ test.

>>1579160
Yeah i think op is talking out hes ass...
The probability of staying within the "1%er" is rarely heard of not because it is never achieved but because there is no limit to the success rate if your thinking in a wealth(currency) format wich you'll need to rearrange you prioritys and variables such as food, rent, gas if you have a personal transportation or pay to get around all of this needs to be thoroughly thought through to cut any unwanted bumps you'll only need to account for risk×Time×risk= probability of success. But i think somehow you already knew that op and im jus a dum stoopid niigar