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Warren Buffet insists that any diligent investor can beat the

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Warren Buffet insists that any diligent investor can beat the market. The Efficient Market Hypothesis says otherwise. Which is it, /biz/? Can any diligent investor beat the market, or are index funds the way to go?

>t. novice investor unsure which investment strategy to pursue
>>
>any diligent investor
>diligent investor
>diligent
>Efficient Market
>Market average
>average

There is no contradiction here. The standard for diligence is merely higher than most believe it to be.
>>
>>1144728
>Warren Buffet insists that any diligent investor can beat the market.

Warren Buffet is a diligent investor that beats the market. That statement is true.
>>
Depends if you think you're smarter than like 90% of mutual fund managers, almost all daytraders and commodity traders, etc. Well are you anon?

Also if you want to actually put some much work in, to at best slimly beat the market, and more likely not beat it or perhaps match it some years.
>>
Picking companies well and waiting a long time. Both are hard things to do. For example I bought exxon at the wrong time. If I would have waited 4 months I could be making 25% return instead of 10%. Notice the difference. I was guaranteed 10% with waiting, but if I would have been luckier I could be making more. You can't do that with index funds. However I still think 1/3 of your money should be in index funds.
>>
I plan to use a multitude of different methods. Some active funds, some passive funds and some alternative trading strategies.

There's no need to limit yourself to just 1 strategy.
>>
>>1144841
>If you know shit about what you want, you do it all

eggs in different baskets is a strategy for people not intelligent enough to come with a sane strategy but intelligent enough to know they are too stupid to make a good decision.
>>
>>1144805

>smarter than 90% of mutual fund managers

This is a meme perpetuated by the index funds.

Is it true that most fund managers underperform the market? Yes.

Is that because they can't pick stocks? No.

It's because they can't move the huge sums of money that mutual funds/ETFs hold in an efficient manner to generate above average returns.

Historically, the highest returns have been generated by small/microcap stocks or private equity investments in startup companies. Those are impossible to invest in when you're managing $10B.

So where does the fund money go? The only place it can go is into the same large cap stocks that make up the indexes. Then why do they underperform? Management fees.

Single investors with under $1m have an advantage over fund managers. They can invest in literally anything out there in the market without driving the price up or down.

If they invest the time, diligent individual investors can in fact beat the market.
>>
>>1144845

It's more about wanting exposure to lots of different things all over the world. For about 22 hours of each trading day my money is being worked through various different markets in various different ways. I'm making money, even while I sleep.

Helps you wake up with a smile.
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>>1144755
Good post.
>>
>>1144728
>Efficient Market Hypothesis
Assumes that people respond rationally to information in making buy/sell decisions. They do not.

>Investors, including the likes of Warren Buffett,[33] and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically. Behavioral economists attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of cognitive biases such as overconfidence, overreaction, representative bias, information bias, and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These have been researched by psychologists such as (((Daniel Kahneman))), (((Amos Tversky))), Richard Thaler, and Paul Slovic. These errors in reasoning lead most investors to avoid value stocks and buy growth stocks at expensive prices, which allow those who reason correctly to profit from bargains in neglected value stocks and the overreacted selling of growth stocks.
>>
>>1144728
Besides other ideas exposed in the thread, note that not all markets are equally efficient or transparent. In less developed countries, for example, information about local stocks is not instantly available at the click of a button. Also in many countries index funds don't even exist.
>>
Efficient market theory is bullshit. Cmon guys nobody believes that crap.
>>
>>1145112
You do.
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>>1145017
>... and the overreacted selling of growth stocks.
the best time of the year :-) can't wait for the new shemitahs
>>
the EMH is a meme spouted by academics. in the industry, where people actually do stuff and not just work on theories its laughed at.
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