sup /biz/ my stepfather insists that the oil price will rise

>>1115629
From a technical perspective it's about to go up

I have no input about international shenanigans, however

>>1115636
>I have no input about international shenanigans, however

shame, but could you explain what you mean by technical perspective?

he might profit from a bump here or there but thats about it.

theyre phasing out carbon based fuels, anon. theyll discourage their use via carbon taxes price hikes. its never going back to where it was. ever.

read warren buffetts letter to shareholders release the other day or G20 statements. theyre going to reboot the global economy with renewables and whats now considered meme tech

>>1115642
It's the perspective of his ass, which is where he pulled that out of. But it's true though, believe me. I wouldn't lie.

>>1115645
thanks for the input, can't say i wouldn't enjoy the fucker loose his cash, even if my mom would become homeless.
>>1115646
I see. yeah, who on the internet would tell lies, amirite?

>>1115629
If he has it in oil futures etfs he's going to get fucked hard. Especially if it's some shit like uwti

If he's not holding oil stocks id say gtfo ASAP.

>>1115642
Google technical analysis, it is mostly just shit though and only works if big players have very similar TA to you cuz then you get pulled along with their money

>>1115646
Pretty much

>>1115654
nah. no futures, it's all in stocks

im waiting for it to jump ~10%, then short it two days later.

The EIA is showing inventory builds week after week. Cushing storage is at serious risk of maxing out over the next couple of months. Oil tankers are being told to take long delivery routes. No one knows exactly how much storage is left, only that we are approaching tank tops and will probably be finding out soon. This is a battle for market share and it's far from over IMO. Look for WTI prices closer to $20 bbl before even thinking of going long.

>>1115636
How is it about to go up from a technical perspective you shill? Learn your fucking shit first

Lol, there are a whole lot of ignorant posters ITT. Oil prices are going to increase in the summer. More power plants are going to have to operate generators using traditional fossil fuels such as oil coal & natural gas to meet demand

>>1115703
how much of an increase are we talking?

>>1115703
>snarky, condescending, sage knaaawledge type douche bag

listen friendo, theres a fight going on in my state right now with the power company and their competitors. do you know why? the incumbent utility is raising rates to offset their REQUIRED diversification into renewables going forward and they want preferential treatment from regulators, and theyre going to get it. theres even commercials on my local tv stations about it. this is happening all over the country. do you know why? its being dictated at the federal level via the threat of funding losses (obambo bux) down to states and the states are complying.

its one thing if its just pure speculation based on nothing. its another if its in your fucking mailbox in the form of a bill.

tell me, is the insert in my electricity bill informing me of their intention to raise rates as they shift to renewable sources of energy a figment of my imagination?

and what kind of fag capitalizes Lol anyway?

>>1115730
>>1115703
Oil has little to nothing to do with electrcity generation. What are you autists on about?

oil is going to 50-60 in the long run but all the western companies are either overvalued(exxon) or fairly valued based on current crude prices(shell,chevron,bp). The only oil plays with value are russia (gazprom, lukoil) and offshore (seadrill,transocean) and people are afraid of both which is why there so cheap but monkeys have a tendency to under price assets and this creates opportunity for the rational investors. Seadrill is retarded cheap and could sell it rigs to exxon at rock bottom prices and would still raise enough cash in a liquidation to give to shareholders and right now at least according to accountants estimates in the form of book value is far greater than the current share price. Russia is far more opaque because I can envision a scenario where gazprom will liquidate mainly because its such a strong company fundamentally. This makes the current valuation on it even more autistic because it is mainly based on fear of putin and what he will do. In my opinion he isnt going to do anything and just wants his dividend to get paid and is not going to pull a yukos on a company that is already under state control and that he has a stake in personally. The risk is mainly corruption in the form of excessive capex spending that is being used to siphon money out of the company. That being said the dividend is being paid on time and the cash balance has increased over time. And if it were valued at its book value like royal dutch and chevron are it would have a higher market cap than both of them.

>>1115755
i know. he brought up coal and natural gas as if they have anything to do with it in reddit speech and fashion. even that he was wrong about on top of it. it triggered me

>>1115761
>50 to 60/bbl
With capex being slashed to nothing across the board, crude is gonna be 200/bbl as soon as oversupply is burned off. A quick look at offshore backlogs and rig scrapping will tell you that theres about a year window to start tenders or just build a pipeline from Mecca cause that's where will be getting our oil from for the next 5 years

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37KB, 620x413px

Listen up Caucasians:

Oil will go up when 2.5 million bpd of production are taken off the market for whatever reason.

Until that time it will have little 15% trends up and down based on rumors about global production cutbacks ....or not.

The bottoming process won't start until 2017.

Did you read what Whiting Oil did the other day? They are the biggest in the Bakken and they just raised their fucking hands and said we're out for now. The Bakken is what started the collapse of oil prices globally. That is because engineers running oil companies don't know how to trade/hedge ....and....they listen to the wrong people for advice.

The bottom isn't in yet.

How does an individual invest in oil long-term without getting fucked by contango?

>>1115830
By not buying futures

What about 3rd party oil companies? Anyone invest in them? Haliburton, weatherford (in a bind right now), Nov just to name a few.

Elites love money so oil price will rise. Elites are just waiting for the right time.

>>1115822
>The bottoming process won't start until 2017.

No. It's at the bottom. Right now we are waiting for people to run out of capital and be forced to shut in wells, or for the lack of new wells and decreasing returns from aging ones to cut production. Producers have been losing money with each barrel for months now, they simply can't afford to keep doing that for another year.

>>1115859
these are not oil companies in any way, shape, or form. they are service companies, and when real oil companies like exxon, shell, chevron, etc. aren't drilling many new wells (like now), service companies lose a ton of money.

>>1115890
>drills for and extracts oil
>not an oil company

RIG, DO, NE, SPN these will make you rich. XOM, CHV, RDS, COP, these will make you some extra spending money. Either way, buy oil now

Oil will go back up, however not in the near future. Gas and Oil companies have a bi-annual credit line review done by the banks in April, and their assets have plummeted since Q4, some as much as 70%. Saudi Arabia knows this, the oil companies know this, and the banks know this. With a decrease in their credit line, they will have to start laying off workers, and start cutting spending to get rid of some of their debt. Some might just declare bankruptcy.

There in lies the timeline. April will show very low oil prices, however it's up to the gas and oil companies to figure themselves out. Oil should not push lower than $20, Saudi Arabia can technically handle that since they can just continue to sell foreign bonds til we go bankrupt, but sub-$20 oil would take the industry down with it.

My advice, which is utter horseshit, is to wait til April, and see where oil is at. If it's near $20, buy as much as you can. It can really only go up from here.

>>1115629
Only time will tell. They will probably go up eventually, but that might take a long time.

>>1116121
I thought those revolvers were pretty much set in stone. Wouldnt the company have to violate certain liquidity terms to have their credit lines decreased? Can anyone who knows more about revolving credit lines speak to this?

>>1116126
Well the thing is, these companies are not paying these lines back, and when their credit score gets downgraded, that might be enough to violate the terms of the credit line.

>>1116126
The revolving credit lines are set in stone, but are revalued bi-annually in April and October. This April, just like last October, the banks will most likely once again reduce the credit lines.

>>1116094
What the fuck happened to Transoceans stock price (RIG) from 2008-2009? Holy shit lol

>>1115629
Yeah it will 100% go up sometime in the near future.

Commodities are shitty short-term speculations, though. If he buys, he should be prepared to sit on it for a long ass time.

It's bound to go up eventually, question is when and how far before it drops.

I'd wait for now, since there doesn't seem to actually be an end in sight.

>>1116131
That would hardly be set in stone. I have to believe there is less leeway since its common practice to draw down on the way into bankruptcy court which Ive watched happen with a couple companies last year. Is there any source you have to read more about these bank reviews?

>>1116149
Are you joking m8?

Considering Saudi Arabia and alot of oil producing countries can't survive on price of oil this low, I'd say there's a good chance it'll go up. They'll pull some strings.