Why shouldnt I be buying crude right now? It's at its bottom

>>1045186
People have been saying that for the last 15 months. But go ahead.

Also, stop making these threads.

That might be a good idea, but plan for more than a year for the oil to skyrocket again.

>>1045186
Screenshot this shit.
Oil is going to keep falling and it'll bottom out around $10.00 per barrel.

OPEC can't do shit and American companies are going to drastically increase supply up until 2025. The EIA predicts that demand will meet supply around 2017, but I think they're wrong. This is all a hunch, but I believe that oil companies feel bullish for the future demand for oil, but they're going to be wrong as fuck.

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>>1045365
None of you assholes must be in the oil producing business. % years a go a shitload of drilling took place onshore and offshore. Producers were smart engineeringly and found oil offshore and onshore in the tight oil strata.

Guess what?

All those projects are coming online now as sellers compete with each other to sell oil as fast as possible. This will happen for at least another 5 years.

The producers want the fucking money they borrowed to drill themselves to death back in their wallets. When oil was near 100 they drank the investment bank kool-aid and "leveraged " their assholes open to be exploited for 5 to 10 years from now.

Just because you find an oilfield doesn't make you a trader or a speculator. Just like finding a huge oilfield doesn't make you a instant fucking A380 pilot.

Here comes $5/bbl. Prepare your financial anus.

>>1045186
Yes, fuck yes. Not only should you buy you should get the max cash advance on your credit cards and buy with that money too. Pawn anything you have of value for cash. Don't worry about having to get your shit back out of hock or paying off those credit cards, you'll be laughing all the way to the bank when oil fucking skyrockets to $40 next week

>>1045467
Actually it's not that big of a deal to shutdown relatively inefficient shale and tar goo operations compared to say the Saudi sea water injection programs of 10 million barrel a day because if they do they rick fouling the fields.

Not to mention the increasing year on year risk of a major conflagration in the middle east, throw in an unstable Russia and shit could go sideways any day and you can kiss cheap oil goodbye. I foresee many shocks and demand destruction cycles, an oscillation if you will into some dark ages. Betting against the very substance that built the modern world and the goo it relies on to function is not a good one.

>>1045349
Stealing this precious meme

>>1045198
We're blowing up a balloon. People have been calling it to burst since it was the size of a basketball.

It still hasn't burst.

It is now the size of a large watermelon. We are still inflating it.

Is it MORE or LESS likely to burst now then at any point in the past?

More.

But by that logic it is always more likely to burst then before we inflated it. We must measure it with something external to the ball and the rate of inflating.

Saudi oil cost of production. Cost of production is estimated at $10USD. They need $40 USD to maintain their government expenditure. Right now they are losing money.

I would say yes. Buy oil. Don't expect it to go skyrocketing up, don't expect to pick the bottom. But slowly at this time dump whatever you have to spare from your savings and weekly income slowly into oil. Buy in all the way down to $25 ish.

>>1045467
Cost of production exists.

At some point it's more expensive to for you to extract and sell the oil then it is to let it sit in the ground.

At that point why would you extract and sell it to pay off the loans instead of writting the project off or putting it on an indefinite hold and looking for other ways to pay the money bank.

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>calling crude oil "crude"
>calling headphones "cans"
>calling a computer "rig"

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>>1046147
>enough
>its not

>>1045186
everyone is long oil right now, though looking at the pattern movement last months a bounce is possible but this does not feel like a bottom, it most likely wont be V shaped like it was in 2009 iran entering the market also

>>1045823
>At that point why would you extract and sell it to pay off the loans instead of writting the project off or putting it on an indefinite hold

That is exactly what companies like Exxon Mobil and Shell will do. The issue is the hundreds of small E&P companies that don't have the cash to service their debt without selling from the wellhead. They have to sell at a loss to generate cash to pay back the banks. A lot of these guys will go under in the next 2-3 years if oil stays below 50.

>looking for other ways to pay the money bank.

This discounts how hard it is for companies, even small ones, to venture into other areas of business. Not a lot of oil producers will open restaurants to cover cash burn. They'll just go bankrupt.

>>1045349
Brava

>>1046191

Tfw I work for a small oil company that operates in the black and is still drilling on cash flow :^)

Still probably going to get laid off at the end of the year when they do budgeting for 2017 though.

>>1045365
Oil is going to be $200/barrel by Dec 2016

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>>1046221
I'll sell you some for $100/bbl now. Just hold it to $200 and think of all the money you've made. While you'll be $70/bbl "underwater to start, remember what they say here on /biz/......"It's not a loss until you take it..."

This has killed me over the past few months. I bought a coule of grands worth of shares in BP and RDSB and lost ~20%. So I'm waiting for the jump.

>>1045467
All those projects coming online that were feasible at $100 oil will quickly become insolvent at $30 oil.

When their resource assets lose 70% value and liabilities stay the same, they only survive through raising additional capital. Which is becoming difficult to impossible.

The producers that become underwater either get a Govt bail out or they go under.

Producers that hedged their production will last longer. Any that didn't or have negative cash flow will fail before long.

So in my opinion supply will drop off a cliff long before we see $5 oil. Frackers and offshore drillers will simply go bust and stop pumping oil.

>>1046277
Don't stress, this is a temporary situation. And BP and Shell are too big to fail.

Controlling your fear (and greed) will make you a better investor. In 20 years you will probably look back and wonder why you didn't take some risk and build on your position.

>>1046240
Alright, mail it to my address: 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20500, United States
I will have my people call your people

>>1046277
Same here (Brit?). Only Shell though. I hope the don't cut their dividends before oil goes back up again. I'd like to get more shares whilst they're cheap.

The market is very fear driven atm and even if oil were $5 lower I'd say that they're undervalued.

You fags keep talking about supply, but what about demand? China has slowed down tremendously. I suspect the 7% growth figure is "massaged". Look at BDI # still record low and falling. Without an increase of global growth the supply will continue to be a looming issue be it $20 or $40 oil.

>>1045186

What's the saying "wall street's graveyard is filled with guys who were right too soon."

We're probably going into another recession (see durable goods orders and inventory/sales ratios.) Oil will stay depressed for a long time if that's the case. Are you going to buy calls on oil? Be prepared for those contracts to expire worthless until we see another expansion. You could be buying calls for years before they start to pay off.

>>1046553
Global growth is forecast at around 3% for 2016, higher than 2.4% in 2015. Demand is increasing.

>>1046586
sell calls and buy futures dummy

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>>>1045186 (OP)

Noob here. How do I invest in Oil? Buy companies like BP and Exxon? Oil ETF? What is the best way?

>>1046887
Buy companies like BP and Exxon

Also look at PXD, ATW, and EOG.

>>1045186
i have 100 barrels sitting in my backyard waiting for prices to go up again

>>1045186
is that jim norton on the back?

What you would want to do is look at the gas prices at the gas station. When it goes over, let's say $2.00 per gallon (it's like 1.80 here) then buy oil stock. However, for now, we should wait and watch the news.

You can also wait until oil stock goes lower than 20 bucks. When it does, then buy it.

>>1047075
$1.49/gal for regular unleaded in Ft. Worth. Ft. Worth is where the west begins and the east peters out.

>>1045186
Crude has been on a surplus since last year, until they start having problems with shipping and/or use it up for other things.

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>conventional oil production peaked in 2005
>by 2008 a barrel was $140 due to limited supply
>new oil production from fracking financed by low interest rates comes online
>oh shit we drilled too much, prices collapse
>fracking requires constant new drilling because the wells deplete fast
>new drilling no longer possible, fracking companies will fail and oil will be in limited supply again

Eventually it has to go back up, pic related China will need shit tons of oil in the future

>>1047144

Man I just remembered reading about peak oil like it was yesterday. Then I studied engineering to get into the Alberta energy industry. Then the year I graduate, I get massively fucking cucked.

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>>1047150
Kek I live in Alberta too, graduated from a trade school engineering technologist course last year, pretty fucked job wise but managed to get a labour job at an oil company but I could get laid off at any moment

Feels bad man should have become an accountant or some shit

>>1047150

Peak oil is no longer worth considering. It's peak consumption that's the real boogie man. Consumption should rise in the medium term but we could hit a point where the world is industrialized to a certain point and oil consumption starts declining with efficiency. That's when it's time to actually abandon ship. Probably a century away though.

>>1047144

>new drilling no longer possible, fracking companies will fail and oil will be in limited supply again

It's worth noting that it doesn't matter if companies fail. Money will just pour in to new companies if oil prices come up. The wells will get drilled if it's economical.

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>>1045186
>It's at its bottom
>will be 2-3x in a few months

lol... did you see this in your crystal ball?

USO?

>>1047038
I visited with a former EOG petroleum engineer last week who is selling houses now in the Dallas area. He told me that he got laid off recently. Then he said that the 1,000 sq ft house near facing the feeder road to I-30 was "a fucking steal" at $198k.

>>1045186
geologist here. no it won't.
Iran just opened up it's oil markets to the west. now you have a ton of more, cheap, oil flowing into the west. It's going to crash even harder after this. expect it to drop below $20 a barrel. on top of that, everything will be going electric in a few years.
invest in lithium.

Can't buy enough SU rn
That price per share + those dividends