It's that time again faggots. I'll even help you out

Always swap doors

Statistics 101. What's next, OP, the birthday paradox?

>>729244910
Look at this faggot trying to act superior rather than enjoying the retards screeching about how right they are even though they're wrong

Do you feel better now anon?
Nobody thinks you are any smarter for saying that

>implying winning a goat isn't just a good

>>729244836
>Keep door #3
Fuck the taxes on that car

>>729245295
You seem upset. There's no need to be upset.

>>729244836
INB4
> I want the goat
> 2nd door is a goat's ass
> I'm Muslim
> too drunk to remember 4th inb4

>>729244910

wich one is the birthday paradox?

Stay

>>729245576
wow anon, you're drunk? you are just the quirkiest character ive ever met. being drunk alone always means you are just a generally fun guy.

>>729245538
No, You acted like a pretentious faggot and got called out on it.
As smart as you attempted to appear, you're only response to that is "you mad bro".
That's just sad and embarrassing.

>>729245674
Pretty sure he means the one referring to the odds of having a boy after 2 girls or something like that.

It has nothing to do with birthdays nor is it called that.
He just wants to impress everyone with how clever he is on a Mongolian monkey tickling forum.

>>729244836
Always switch when you find out the goat is behind the first door. This is a dead fucking horse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>729245782
>you're only response to that is "you mad bro".
You mean "your"

>>729245721
When I oull a 50 hour week and come in on one of my.off days to make sure everythings good at work after a $75,000 days trade from good Friday, you get your ass I'm having drinks after.

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>>729246109
No, I meant exactly what I typed.
>pic related

>>729246121
Markets are closed on Good Friday.

Lol.

t. Someone who actually trades (me)

>>729246121
Clearly upset if you feel you need to make up a busy successful life for yourself. you're bottom of the barrel m8. it doesnt get much worse than this

>>729246482
I meant the Thursday trade, which is because of being closed good Friday and many people going away having 3-4 days off.

It's the second busiest day of the year for most liquor stores

>>729246685
Oh, liquor store. Kek.

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>>729246494
Sure thing Timmy.
A manager if a liquor store would have such an easy day after good Friday that they just have to make up stories.

Just because you're life is shit, don't assume everyone elses is anything like yours.
You are the minority

>>729246845
Ausfag where we actually get paid well though.
Plus the job is pretty entertaining most if the time

>>729244836
switch, because its then a 75:25 chance but i'm too drunk o writ the reasoning out

>>729247412
66:33, but you got the right idea

>>729245909
I think he means the fact that it is a 50% chance that two people will share a birthday in a group of 23 people.

>>729247557
Possibly.
I doubt he knows to be honest.
I think he just heard that term and repeated it to appear smart

If I get the goat can I keep him? Because who the fuck would want a car when you can have a goatbro.

I was sperging until i got to the simple explanation

The behavior of the host is key to the
2
/
3
solution. Ambiguities in the "Parade" version do not explicitly define the protocol of the host. However, Marilyn vos Savant's solution (vos Savant 1990a) printed alongside Whitaker's question implies, and both Selvin (1975a) and vos Savant (1991a) explicitly define, the role of the host as follows:

>The host must always open a door that was not picked by the contestant (Mueser and Granberg 1999).
>The host must always open a door to reveal a goat and never the car.
>The host must always offer the chance to switch between the originally chosen door and the remaining closed door.
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>729248105
You can, but you have to pay the vet bills and goat registration fee

>>729248219
Thats Not simple.
The si.oke explanation is that if your first choice is wrong, switching wins.
Your first choice has 66% chance of being wrong.

I don't understand how it's not 50%. Not tryna troll. One is a goat and the other is a car
How does switching increase your chances of getting it right? You don't know if you're wrong yet

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Statistically you should always change, but in reality the bet is always 50/50, you are never given the option to cash in the 1 in 3 bet that is posited at the start.
If you have chosen the car at the start then, change you lose, stay you win.
If you chosen the goat at the start then, change you win, stay you lose.

These are the 2 bets that should be compared, not the pseudo 1 in 3 bet and the real 50/50 bet.

>>729247103
no man i make $100k a year oiling up hot sluts and have a different hot girl to bang every night. complete truth. you and i, we are such winners arent we

>>729248401
Then it has only a 50% chance of being wrong after the goat is revealed?

I started this thread too early.
I forgot these never take off until USAsians are awake

>>729248494
No, if your first choice was 66% chance of being wrong, and if you chose wrong and switch you win, switching wins 66% of the time

>>729248603
I feel like an idiot. I still don't get it. There are now only 2 options, isn't there? A goat or a car? I'm actually good at maths it's just this problem I've never been able to work my mind around.

>>729248796
What is the odds of choosing a goat in your first pick?

>>729248603
Not so, there really only 2 different options, goat or car, choosing "wrong" doesn't matter because you are always still in the game at the end, where the real bet is made.
It's a logical fallacy that I'm not sure if the super intelligent are trolling us with or if they really believe it.

>>729249120
2/3

>>729249226

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Its quite difficult.

>>729249238
And if you chose a goat first pick, switching wins.

>>729249226
It's not a logical fallacy, it's a mathematical fact.
Switching wins 2/3

>>729249590
>>729249238
>>729249120
Ah I think I get it now. Thanks guys

>>729249590
Props to this anon for simplifying it so dramatically. Respect.

>>729249238
Lol, don't be bamboozled.

Imagine to game shows with the same premise, one had 2 goats/1 car, the other 99 goats/1 car, then statistically the savvy contestant on the 99 goat show should win WAY more often than 2 goat guy, after all he's swapping a 99/1 bet for a 50/50 bet, but again in reality both contestants win the car exactly 50% of the time#

>100 doors
>pick a door
>host eliminates all but your door and another door
>lol it's a 50/50 chance I got the right one.

No. The equation isn't simply choosing between two doors, since you already made that choice out of 100 doors. So your chance is still 1 out of a hundred. The odds the second door are the correct door go up the more doors there are to start with.

Always. Switch. Doors.

>>729249575
I know, but try to wrap your head around the reality of it, in the real Monty Hall show contestants won the car 50% of the time.

>>729249805
Was OP.
havent made a month hall thread for a fair while now, been too busy lately to have time to sit out a thread.

That is the simplest easiest way to see it's true, and once you know it's true understanding it becomes much easier.

I enjoy these threads for the relentless arguing they instigate, but sadly that hasnt happened this time.

>>729250093
But thats completely wrong and you havent understood anything

>>729250305
No they didnt.
Stop making shit up you faggot

>>729250305
Yeah, but in the real Making up Statistics show they won 99% of the time.

Explain that

>>729248438
You picked door 1 with 33 percent odds. Once door 3 was shown, door 2 now has a 50/50 chance, but door 1 still retains the original 33%.

>>729250930
You just said 50%+33%=100%
Im sure you see why that is not correct

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>>729244836
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBusters_(2011_season)#Pick_a_Door

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>>729244836
Here’s the key points to understanding the Monty Hall puzzle: Two choices are 50-50 when you know nothing about them
Monty helps us by “filtering” the bad choices on the other side. It’s a choice of a random guess and the “Champ door” that’s the best on the other side.
In general, more information means you re-evaluate your choices.
The fatal flaw in the Monty Hall paradox is not taking Monty’s filtering into account, thinking the chances are the same before and after. But the goal isn’t to understand this puzzle, it’s to realize how subsequent actions & information challenge previous decisions.

>>729251122
The 17% chance is still stuck to door three of that makes sense

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>>729251749
Is cropping really that hard?
Heres your pic back in less cancerous form

>>729250093
If anything, the 100 doors problem makes it even more clear you need to switch. Imagine you pick door one, and the host now MUST open 98 false doors and leave you with one door that is either a car and only a goat IF you happened to pick the car the first round.

The chance you picked the right door is only 1/100. The host left the door with a car unopened in 99/100 cases. You obviously want to switch, if the host asks you whether you want to, although it's still just 2 unopened doors if you ignore the game history.

The problem is that your first decision is totally irrelevant, you always go through to the next round, so there is NO bet, NO risk. NO chance taken, therefore nothing to compare with the 50/50 bet made at the end.

>>729252247
Now your saying one door out of three has 17% odds.
33%=17%???

You choose a door, it has 33% to win, every other door combined has 66% to win.
Opening one of those doors doesn't change thise odds, becasue there's still a 66% chance the winning door is one of the doors you didn't choose.

Showing you what's behind one of them still means theres a 66% chance ine if the doors you didn't choose is the prize, but now you know one is not the car, so the only other door is 66% to be the car.

>>729252388
He won't understand.
His logic says winning lotto is 50/50 becauwe you either win or you don't, but hes not millionaire is he?

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>>729252277
thanx for having my back anon, Ta!

>>729252605
Except the second choice of switching is entirely dependant on the first choice.

First choose car, switch=lose
First choose goat, switch=win

What are the odds of first choosing the goat or car?

>>729252605
Your first decision just pins down one door as one the host is now allowed to open. This is a car in 1/3 cases and a goat in 2/3 cases.

The host now must open one out of two doors, that has a goat. In 1/3 cases both of them have a goat (since you chose the car) so he opens one randomly. In 2/3 cases only one has a goat, the other the car, so he must leave the door with the car closed.

Again: In 2/3 cases the host has no option other than to leave a car, only in 1/3 cases, the unopened door will have a goat behind. You should always switch.

>>729248796
>only 2 options, isn't there?

You win lottery or you don't. 2 options. 50% kek

>>729252813
Yeah, me no understand, me just pawn in game of life.

>>729251749
the only real issue is the retarded way the question is always set-up, to appear as if the choice of the door opened to reveal a goat was random, when it is in fact ALWAYS set to reveal a goat, but it's always written vaguely to confuse people into thinking it was a random act, which would mean that switching doors would have no affect on the outcome

tl;dr it's a superiority faggots wet dream because the original problem is badly worded/explained to being with

>>729253280
Youte insulting someone that admitted he didn't understand and asked for a better explanation, then acyually understood when one was given.

Your a fucking douchbag faggot.

>>729253280

Top kek, odds of winning lotto about 1 in 14,000,000, of course if you change your numbers it goes down to 2 in 3.

Millionaires are you both?

>>729253762
It's not worded vaguely at all.
It clearly says the door opened WILL be a goat.

How is that vague?

you also should switch in the case of 100 doors, 1 with a car and 99 goats. if the host reveals 98 doors to have a goat, and you switch, you then have a 99% chance of winning the car.

This is confusing because on shows like deal or no deal, this does NOT apply. when there are 2 cases left on that show, each remaining amount is 50% to be in either case. This is because the cases were randomly revealed throughout - the host wasn't revealing only the low ones/goats.

>>729254020
it's the monty hall problem where the actions/intentions of the host are not explicitly stated

if the act of opening another door was random as most people assume, then the there is no advantage to switching

it is only when it is explicitly stated that the door to be opened will and always be a goat does it become advantageous to switch doors

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>>729253762
If you find this wording vague, it's your brain that's fucked up, not the question.

If you disagree, attemot to explain how that wording is vague, and what it could mean

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>>729253762
>the only real issue is...

>>729254205
But it is explicitly stated.
See the OP pic, see this post >>729254313

Youre arguing a point that doesn't exist.
The rules are clear.

>>729254313
>>729254362
>>729254462

this pointless question is only ever bandied about by superiority faggots such as yourselves because it is worded vaguely

"then the host will open a door you did not select to reveal a goat"

it is NOT EXPLICITY STATED THAT THE HOST KNEW WHERE THE GOAT WAS which is what confuses people, and this is the entire root of what superiority faggots get off on

File: 180px-Monty_open_door_chances.svg.png (5KB, 180x183px) Image search: [Google]

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For visual people, such as myself, I didn't understand how the solution could be correct until I saw this pic.

>>729254822
you win!

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>>729254822
>>729255009

>>729254762
It doesn't say to maybe reveal a goat.
It says he WILL reveal a goat.

You are dumb

Explain how it is vague or shut the fuck up.

>>729255078
>Not folding the $5 note to reveal a cocksucking whale

>>729244836
>You are on a gameshow

No I'm not.
Kill yourself faggot.

Problem solved.
Never bother anyone or their sons ever again.

>>729255615
your son has a feminine penis tho, can't resist that

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>>729254822
Maybe this "visual" will help

>>729255615
You only want us to leave your son alone so you dont have to take your cock out of his mouth

>>729255450
it doesn't establish the intentions of the host, it says he will open a door, which reveals a goat

you cannot infer that the action was intentional which determines if the switch is advantageous or not

the entire problem is already written out as a narrative that has already happened, YOU WILL RANDOMLY SELECT A DOOR, THE HOST WILL THEN OPEN A DOOR THAT SHOWS A GOAT

it is not established that he will do it intentionally, only that this was a course of events THAT happened and we still do not know if he did it intentionally or not, changing the outcome of switching

>You are dumb

sure kid

>>729255913
You are literally retarded.

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>>729255545
very nice anon... hi-5!

>>729256045
nope, you just want to get off on feeling superior to a badly written problem

once you grow-up a a little and understand that you make an assumption on the actions of what the host has done, and that's your entire basis for feeling 'smart' you can join the real world

>>729255913
>the entire problem is already written out as a narrative that has already happened, YOU WILL RANDOMLY SELECT A DOOR, THE HOST WILL THEN OPEN A DOOR THAT SHOWS A GOAT

Intentionally or not, this is what will happen as you said yourself, so obviously that is what you would base your choice on.

>>729256188
Just keep digging that hole deeper anon

>>729256285
WRONG

if the host INTENTIONALLY REVEALS THE GOAT THEN THE ODDS OF SWITCHING CHANGE

if the host DID NOT intentionally reveal the goat then the odds of switching DO NOT CHANGE

>>729256404
But he opens a door to reveal a goat, so it's obviously intentional.

How can you not understand this?

>>729256518
WRONG

IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY STATED THAT THE INTENTIONS OF THE HOST ARE TO ALWAYS REVEAL THE GOAT

jesus fuck this is all explained on the wikipedia page for retards such as yourself, you make an ASSUMPTION on what the intentions of the host are and that is what you base all future probabilities on, one assumption that is NEVER EXPLICITLY explained in this repeated 'problem'

it's a dumb question with incomplete information that is always repeated by smug shitlords desperate to appear smarter than other people

>>729256701
Fuck sake anon.

Let's pretend it's not intentional.
It still states he WILL reveal a goat, and we know there is 2 goat's and one car.

So even if it's not intentional, the fact that the door revealed WILL be a goat makes intention irrelevant.

The door revealed WILL 100% be a goat door, that makes what you're ranting about irrelevant.

>>729256943
if it was NOT intentional THE THE ODDS OF SWITCHING HAVE NO BENEFIT

holy fuck you don't even understand the 'problem' yourself

the odds ONLY EVER CHANGE because the reveal is 100% INTENTIONAL

if the host RANDOMLY selects a door and it shows a goat there is NO BENEFIT TO SWITCHING

you are NEVER told if the host is a random or intentional reveal, only that he will do it, in this past tense narrative, but we do not know what their intentions were

>>729244836
Switch the doors.
Get the car.
Fuck the goat. Meeeeeeh!
Kill this godammit host who turn myself out of my fucking mind with this fucking door game.
Jump into the car.
Smash some pedestrians on my way.
Post the dashcam movies on 4chan.

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Is this a thread of 99% troll occupancy is there really this many stupid people here?

>>729257160
But it's not random if he opens a door you did not select to reveal a goat.

That's not random at all, that's revealing a goat door.

It's stated this will occur in the OP image.

You are correct that if he randomly opens a door the result will average to 50/50, but he doesn't randomly reveal a door.

It clearly undeniably irrefutably states there will be a goat behind the door he opens.

You're arguing something that is entirely irrelevant to this thread.

>>729257595
nope, you're just told about a series of actions THAT happened

you are not told that the host will ALWAYS reveal a goat and he intends to ALWAYS reveal a goat

like you are told you WILL pick a door, you are told the host WILL pick a door

you are NEVER told if his pick was made randomly or with the knowledge

and that is the entire basis of this shitty shitty shitty 'problem' that is so beloved of smug ass shitlords to try and make themselves look smart in front of others

i have known of this paradox since I was a child, only marginally longer than I have known of it being used as fodder for self-satisfied cranks.

fuck the world feels old

>>729257770
You are told the door he picks will be a goat.
That is all that is relevant to this question.

I really can't tell if youre trolling now or just ignorantly stupid.

What you are trying to justify, is if I explicitly state this...
>Joe walks down the street to the nearest intersection
>Joe turns left and stops at the store and buys a drink
And you are saying...(with far too many caps)
We don't know that Joe intentionally turned left so maybe he turned right and stayed thirsty...

Exceot he DID turn left, because it was written that he did.
This isn't a choose your own adventure story anon, the actions are clearly outlined.

I'd you're trolling, you fail because you can't troll a month hall thread.
If you are serious, you have a severe mental incapability to grasp anything outsdie of your preconceived notion even when it is blatantly clear.

Joe turned left, because how doesn't exist.
It's a story, question, problem, math equation.

Intention has no relevance to a predetermined outcome, in this case opening a door to reveal a goat.

>>729258695
WRONG

you are told he will pick a door that reveals a goat, you are not told if he did it intentionally or randomly which as you admitted earlier, CHANGES THE OUTCOME FOR SWITCHING

>That is all that is relevant to this question.

>>729258975
I never admitted what you're ranting.
Your are the dumb fuck that got his dick caught in the ceiling fan because you found the instructions unclear.

Your inability to comprehend something so basic makes further interaction with you pointless.

You win anon, you are a genius and know more than everybody else.
Yiu are as special as mother tells you every night she tucks you in and don't let anybody ever tell you otherwise.

Niw That we've established your genius superiority can you please fuck off and cancer up some other thread

>>729259605
WRONG

go and talk to someone you don't think you're smarter than, and explain how "i cannot get passed the fact i make the assumption that i know what the intention of the host was, even though it is never clearly stated if the reveal was random or not" and have them explain it to your delicate sensibilities

>>729259767
It's clearly stated it is not random.

>Joe rolls a die, it rolls a 6...
YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT MIGHT NOT ACTUALLY BE A 6 BECAUSE YOU NEVER SAID THE ROLL WAS RANDOM OR NOT SO THE ROLL COULD BE ANYTHING EVEN THOUGH IT'S CLEARLY STATED THAT A 6 WAS ROLLED

That's how retarded you are.
Please go you stupid fuck.

>>729260343
except it isn't

you're told about a series of actions that occurred

you have NO IDEA if the hosts choice was made with knowledge or without, only that they did pick and that it did reveal a goat, like you are told you WILL pick, they WILL pick, but no instruction if it was randomly done to reveal a goat or intentionally done to reveal a goat

AND THAT is where the entire 'problem' lies, because if you're an ass hat wannabe smart smug shitlord you make the assumption that supports your statistical theory and you parade around like you're something smart to be taken notice of

File: 4eafbd15c1b7a9004d0b84cda8431b9f.png (24KB, 631x905px) Image search: [Google]

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Decided to make a small program to show why you choose to switch

>>729260642
It's not a recount of past actions you dumb fuck.
It's outcome guidelines of future attempts at the problem.

What age did you leave school or stop taking math classes anon?

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>>729260882
here's the percentage of times you would win if you switch

>>729260882
THAT PRGRAM CANT HAVE INTENTUON IT HAS TO BE RANDOM AND RANDOM AND IM SO ANGRY AND CINFUSED RAAAARRGGHHHHH

WHY CAN'T I JUST HAVE TENDIES EVERY MEAL FUCK YOU MOM!!!!!!!

>>729260908
>it's not a recount of past actions but here you are being told what has already happened and you're now at this point

yeah okay dumb fuck

anyway, since these things haven't happened yet, even though the narrative tells us that they have, they still haven't said that the hosts pick was intentional or not, which changes the outcome

thanks

>>729244836
Swap, because the probability shows that if you switch, you're more likely to get the prize. I learned this shit in middle school.

>>729261114
WHY are you fixated that it's past occurances?

It's step by step follow along instructions that a kid could follow.

>1
Choose a door
>2
Goat door you didn't pick is opened
>3
Stay or switch

You are the most retarded cunt I've come across on here in quite a while, and that's saying something considering the levels of retardation these days.

There is something legitimately wrong with you

>>729261748
you make an assumption about step 2 which is never explicitly stated will always happen

and that is where you ALWAYS WILL BE wrong as i reveal your wrong answer

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>>729254762
of course the host is gonna choose a door with a goat, if the host chooses the door with the car then GAME OVER!

>>729262383
that is your assumption to make, but from the point of view of the probability, it makes all the difference, if you want to go through life making assumptions on that and basing your math on it, well good luck with that

>>729262545
>>729260882
>>729261008
In this simulation of the scenario the host knew where the car was when opening the door but switching still had a greater than 50% chance of winning

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>>729262545

>>729262781
it is not explicitly stated that this is the case in this scenario so you can only assume that

also in most cases where this question is put forward it is never explicitly implied that the host's choice will always be a goat, only that they pick and it is a goat, if you assume that they know then you get one set of probabilities if you don't go around making unfounded assumptions despite how obvious sperglords want them to be, then the probabilities change

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>>729262145
Is explicitly stated
Factually stated
Undeniably stated in a way even the average retard couldn't get confused by.
>pic related
Congrats faggot, you are more retarded than the average retard.

Now can you please leave this thread and spread your cancer elsewhere.

>>729263121
yes, we established that in this scenario of events that happen that the host opened a door and a goat was revealed, we get that and nobody is disputing that

but what you still fail to understand is that if they the host can have made that choice to open a door that WILL reveal a goat either randomly or intentionally, which changes the probabilities for switching your choice

>>729262973
I could change the code to reflect a scenario where the host does not know where the car is if you want to see the probability of winning

>>729262973
>it is not explicitly stated that this is the case in this scenario
Yes it is.
This has been explained to you numerous times, even with pic evidence, the OP pic at the top of this thread proves you wrong.

It's like a real-time cringe thread watching you keep posting

>>729263351
>the host can have made that choice to open a door that WILL reveal a goat either randomly or intentionally

This is the retardation you chose

>>729263366
the probability remains unchanged if the host's choice of opening doors was random

if the host intentionally revealed the goat the probability increases for switching

the point is that the question is vague and purposefully sets out to confuse so that some can feel superior to others

it often goes along the lines of, "but OMG THE HOST WILL ALWAYS SHOW THE GOAT", but you never said that, "OMG BUT IT IS SO OBVIOUS IN THIS ONE GAME SHOW THAT IT HAPPENED ONE TIME IN ALL THE EPISODES THAT AIRED HE ALWAYS SHOWED A GOAT OMG MY LOGIC IS FLAWLESS I AM SUPERIOR THIS HAS MADE ME FEEL LIKE I AM WORTH SOMETHING"

or to that effect

>>729263351
Wait...
Ate you suggesting there is a way the host can choose a door randomly that WILL have a goat behind it?

>>729263749
you're making assumptions again, try to think about it

>>729263634
The probability changes drastically if the host choice was random.

If it was a random choice the outcome would average to 50% because the host will be opening the car door 33% of the time.

You don't even understand the basic concept of this yet you are ranting about the hosts choice being random even though the hosts choice is always a goat door.

>>729263924
Theres no assumptions.
The host ooens a door that reveals a goat.
This is pre determined.

Your confusion does not change this

>>729245295
Look at this faggot trying to act superior rather than enjoying the retards screeching about how right they are even though they are right .

Do you feel better now anon?
Nobody gives a shit about your point made and this thread is as gay as you sucking OPs dick

>>729244910
>statistics 101
LOL no it's not. 90% of first year statisticians would get this wrong. Well they would if it was still the 90's and this "riddle" wasn't beaten to death.

>>729244836
This is so EASY, only idiots miss it. Keep the same door and win a fucking goat!

>implying I wans some POS base model car

>>729246482
Rekt faggioooiooiittt!!

>>729264340
Redirecting after this long?
Did you finally grasp how ridiculous what you were arguing was?

>>729264079
the probabilities don't change in that you have a host making a 1/3 choice same as you, you ended with the mistake again of assuming the hosts choice is always a goat door, it isn't

>>729264229
it isn't per-determined, you've just assumed this

>>729264706
You got INB4'd faggot.
>couldnt even lurk 8 posts before spreading his sperg

Read algorithms to live by in you fucking niggers want some good 'ol enlightenment on unintuitive statistical predictions

>>729264909
If the host chooses randomly, the result becomes 50%.

It is pre determined in that it says the host opens a door you did not choose to reveal a goat.
That's scripted

You don't understand the math or the concept.
Why won't you just fucking leave?
Youre embarrassing yourself.

>>729257160
>when you're stupid and angry

LOL. You're one of those people who thinks they are smart, but just not living up to your potential, aren't you?


The MATHEMATICAL ODDS of guessing the correct door the first time are ALWAYS lower than switching. No matter if it's intentional goat showing or not. KYS, please.

>>729265047
>he thinks someone telling you not to post means you can't post
LOL, stay cucked my friend.

>>729265281
>>729265330

so what you're tying to say is there is no benefit to switching when the host's choice is random

thanks

>>729265192
tried to show them a shit implementation of that algorithm in ruby

>>729265281
>>729265330
>>729265507

also that it's not established if the host's choice is random or intentional, but you're assuming you know it is intentional

gotcha

>>729265507
I am saying literally the opposite..... Are you mentally slow?

>odds of getting the correct door THE FIRST TIME is 33.3%
It doesn't matter if the host does this 10000000 times. You ALWAYS have a lower chance of picking the right door the first time. It doesn't matter if he knows it or not. It's irrelevant. He can open YOUR DOOR every fucking time, and you still have a %33.3 chance of being right the first time. IT DOES NOT MATTER.

Dude, you are not smart. Just stop.

>>729265481
But I didn't tell him not to post.
I told him to lurk moar

You suggesting me telling him that is a bad thing is fucked up you cancerous piece of shit.

>>729265718
oh i see, you're getting caught up in the probability statistics and now you're desperately searching for something to cling to when the entire premise of your argument has been shown to be based upon an assumption you made

you really are the smart one

>>729265769
>someone said inb4
>so you should lurk more and not post what the inb4 said
Sure thing newfaggot. Stay cucked to the max.

>>729265634
If you read the words in the OP image it's clear the hosts choice is intentional.
Theres a single retard on some retard crusade to prove reality wrong.
Just ignore him

>>729265844
LOL
>I see, you're using math
>how stupid
>4chan is one person

Literally everything you are saying is wrong. inb5
>I was just pretending to be retarded
Stay average anon, stay average.

>>729265931
keep telling yourself that buddo

>>729265993
In your scenario where the host doesn't know where the car is, does the contestant lose if a car is revealed?

>>729265964
no i get it, you were wrong, you sat there making probability tables and now you're saying well hurrr durrr in this outcome it's actually point 2 this, i get it, you need something to cling to, but you got beat on all that matters, you make the assumption on the host's choice and you eventually realized you were wrong and changed your predictions to include when the host's choice was random, well done, you've made progress today, there is hope for you yet

>>729265863
No, you should lurk moar so you kniw what's going on and don't post stupid shit that just makes a fool of yourself.

Like you have thus entire thread mister Joe turned right

>>729265931
Intentional or not does not change the odds that you picked the correct door the first time. Period. End of story.

>I hide your favorite dildo up the ass of one of your three lovers
>I know which one has the dildo
>I tell you to pick
>you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right
>I show you one that doesn't have a dildo
>your odds of being right were still 1/3
>best option is to switch

>same problem
>I don't know which of your lovers has a dildo up his ass
>you have a 1/3 chance of being right
>I pick a random one
>even if you are correct, your odds were still 1/3 of being right

>same problem
>I still don't know which black lover has the dildo up his ass
>you have a 1/3 chance of picking the correct one
>I show a random one to you
>it doesn't have a dildo in it
>you still had a 1/3 chance of being right the first time

Fucking normies.

>>729266157
THE HOST CAN'T REVEAL THE CAR IBVIOUSLY, BUT THE HOST CHOICE IS AKSOS RANDOM AND COUKD EAR A CAR OR BIRD CHICOKATE CHIMOANZEE

File: The+first+three+posts+on+b+ever_32875d_4307155.jpg (48KB, 617x768px) Image search: [Google]

48KB, 617x768px

>>729266204
How new are you.....

>>729266173
>he can't argue the math
>he can't post the math
>so he just babyrages
LOL

>>729266459
the math is that host cannot be proven to have made a random or intentional choice

therefore you acknowledged this and changed your prediction outcomes to acknowledge this fact

feel good about yourself, you've finally learned a little today

>>729266663
For the 100000000th what the host knows is IRRELEVANT. YOU MAKE THE FIRST CHOICE. A 33% chance to be right. Period. He can know you blow lazer beams into your husbands ass, it doesn't matter. You have a 33% chance of picking the correct thing the first time. Seriously, just die.

>>729244836
bait
%50
saged
faggot

>>729266802
it's okay kid i am proud of you, since the big deal is about switching or not, but the fact is the whole question is rigged on whether the host's choice was random or not

but you came through that, you adapted your autism to include that factor, you didn't fall for the basic statistics choice and accepted that the universe itself is random and we cannot make assumptions on the intention of others

feel good about yourself kid, there is hope for you yet

>>729266241
That youve now resorted to saying the hosts intention doesn't change the odds of the first choice is hilariously laughable.

An example of that ridiculousness is if I out 3 cards gave down on a table and told you to choose one.

Nothing I can do after that point can change the card you chose.

Why haven't you become an hero yet?
It's your only chance at becoming as special as you're trying to be

>>729266802
you are right that you have a 33.33% of being right the first time but you have a 66.66% of being right if you switch after a goat is reavealed

>>729267035
........................................................................................................................

There are people unironically this dumb on the earth.

>>729267109
only if the host was intentionally showing you

>>729267371
Stay simple pleb.

>>729267439
babby's name calling, bless

>>729266241
>I finally realized the first choice diesnt change the hosts choice
>maybe if I say the hosts choice doesn't change your first choice maybe I'll still appear clever..............

NO.
That made you infi Italy more retarded than anybody thought possible.

Fuck off or die you stupid piece of shit.
Youve spent hours trying to show how superior you are and have done nothing but embarrass yourself.

I actually feel embarrassed and sorry for you.
But you're dumb as fuck and think you're smart, and that always gives me many laughs.

Get fucked faggot

>>729267371
what is the alternative? does the contestant lose if the car is revealed instead of a goat?

>>729267724
you're worried about the gameshow consequences to a poorly worded question to begin with

i feel bad for you anon

>>729244836
switch doors to number 3.
I want that goat.

No rules were stated that i cannot choose an already open door.

>>729267813
in the scenario presented by op a goat was revealed so you do have a higher percentage change of winning if you switch doors

>>729266241
The difference is, in the gay scenario yiu dreamed up in which you don't know what ass holds the dildo, when you make your random choice you could choose the ass with the dildo in it.

I know you've beeen having a hard time underatsnding it all.

You got abusive and belligerent.
Even resirted to using too many CAPS..

You actually proved the pont though.
In your first scenario, I would have a 2/3 chance to find the dildo by switching.

Your second scenario there is no benefit to switching.

Not that it matter because you're going to suck and fuck them anyway.

Was this retardation just an elaborate scheme to fish for homos without admitting youre a fag?

>>729267813
the point was, if a car is revealed how does is this represented in the percentage of win/lose

>>729268238
only if the host intentionally intended to reveal a goat

>>729266364
>posting a screenshot of the first post AFTER moot fucked up and deleted the board...

But being an oldfag such as youself surely you knew that wasn't actually the first post.

>>729268382
i don't care about the actual exact statistics (which was some faganons massive big deal to feel superior about)

the point is the whole question is rigged, you don't know what the host's intentions are, and based off that you don't know if the switch is in your interests or not

>>729246236
ahah well done

>>729267019
Not rigged
Not random
You're just retarded

>>729267164
Indeed

Those that use the word unironically
And (You)

>>729268779
yeah, well, you know that's just like your assumption man

File: 266d1f6650be1c336baf3fd1a96969d9.png (25KB, 677x937px) Image search: [Google]

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>>729268606
>>729268389
re-ran the code where the the host does not know where the car is and counted the number of wins and loses if you switch when a goat is revealed and you are right the percentage is roughly 50%

do we have a day on 4chin when the monty hall problem isn't posted?
It's fun to see tards trying to solve it but that was like 100 of these threads ago

>>729267813
You can't keep claiming it's poorly worded without explaining why you think its poorly worded.

It's actually clearly worded, so attempting to explain that will only point out that you lack comprehension and reasoning skills.

Pretty sure theyre both symptoms of autism

>>729269011
but in the original monty hall problem it is stated that the host does know where the car is

>>729268382
Zero.
Host will reveal a goat.
This is clear to everyone it her than that one dumb fuck that won't go away

>>729269384
except... ding ding ding IT ISN'T, nor is it in this poorly worded example, which is the ENTIRE BASIS FOR WHY THIS SHITHOLE OF A 'PROBLEM' CONTINUES TO EXIST

>>729269539
no, the original problem presented in the tv show the host did know where the car was

>>729269736
"Most statements of the problem, notably the one in Parade Magazine, do not match the rules of the actual game show (Krauss and Wang, 2003:9) and do not fully specify the host's behavior or that the car's location is randomly selected (Granberg and Brown, 1995:712). Krauss and Wang (2003:10) conjecture that people[which?] make the standard assumptions even if they are not explicitly stated."

>>729267900
the only right answer.
goats can do more that cars. they can feed you, clothe you, and be ridden.

>>729269073
There hasn't been one posted in 3-6 months.
What drugs are you on?

>>729269539
You keep saying poorly worded, but you never back up that claim.
Is it really that hard for you to consider thst it is your understandiing that is flawed?
The wording is clear. It's your understanding that

>>729271259
it's my understanding what

>>729271259
>>729271325
i'll admit this, i have since been posting in this thread, consuming a large quantity of alcohol, and now i am thinking, oh wow, why doesn't this guy get it, we should just assume that whatever the host says is true, he is always on our side, we are not just bait for a tv audience, etc etc etc, we don't just film tv audiences and then not show the ones that are not good enough, like with all tv shows, wtf was i thinking, all media is true and honest, all shit is real, authority is to be trusted, i wish i was as dumb as all you dumb mathematic worshiping autistic fucks

the monty hall problem is more about RESPECT AND OBEY AUTHORITY IN ALL ITS FORMS YOU WORTHLESS FUCKS DO NOT QUESTION THOSE IN POWER AND THEIR INTENTIONS

>>729271325
That is flawed.

Is this the point where you claim it wasn't intentionally flawed so maybe it was correct after all?

Nah cunt.
You're a retard and everything you say or think is retarded cancer.

Fuck off...

You are wrong.
Everything you think about this is wrong.

Autist pls go.
Seriously, just fucking go.

>>729271822
Se all know thia post was you
You being the dumbfuck.of the thread.
Id say inb4 shopped shots, but youre to stupid for that.

>>729272230
idk what the fuck you are trying to say but the monty hall 'problem' is just an endemic of general society today that the word of those in authority must be trusted beyond question and all those who question it are WRONG WRONG WRONG

>>729272454
You fucked up now.
Definitely a trollfag.

Or a fag pretending to be retardfag

The problem is that post was worded in a why that was too concise for the retard that's been plaguing this thread.

You are trying to pretend to be the retard.
Why you do this?

>>729272897
no the monty hall 'problem' just illustrates your willingness to fall in behind the benevolent host that is always acting your best interests, just like government

>>729272454
Bullshit.
This threads pet retard wouldn't say this without using all caps...
>endemic of general society today

Get fucked you fakefag

>>729273135
Explain how Mr Notatroll

>>729273561
There's no assumption in the monty hall problem.
Break it down to the part you think is assumed.

>>729274132
If its the part where you think joe couldve turned right when he turned left just kill yourself now.

>>729274132
where you assume the host is acting in your favor

>>729274239
>>729266241
undisputed gods in this thread

>>729274302
Nothing remotely suggests anybody is acting in anybodies favor.

What gave you the idea the host is acting in your favor?

>>729275187
by ASSUMING he always shows you a GOAT, when he could reveal the car which for you is INSTANT LOSE, the difference is if they ALWAYS show you a goat then your chances significantly improve, if they don't then your chances are no better than 50/50

the point is math fags will gloat about how superior they are for saying you should switch when the real question is whether the host is on your side or not, which is NEVER explained in the question and the only question you should ever be asking yourself, only autistic mathfags get caught up in the mathmatics of a situation

>>729275545
But he couldn't reveal the car.
Clearly says 8n words everybody can read that he will open a door to reveal a goat.
A goat is not a car you silly anon.

There is no side to be on.
Look at the OP image you fucking retard.

>>729274302
Why have you not left or become an hero yet?

>>729275968
nope, you make the assumption that will open a door to reveal a goat will ALWAYS mean open a door to reveal a goat, a common mistake upon retards and math autistics

>>729276154
i am eternal anon, why doth thee question thee

>>729276155
You make the mistake that 1+1=2
And assume it will always equal 2.

What if 1 was random and decides to be 2, then the answer is 3

>>729276522
fool, 1.999... equals 2
>even though it doesn't ( don't tell the mathfag mortals, they have trouble with this one )

>>729276200
>thee question thee
You dumb fuck

The answer to that nonsense is I dont

>>729276728
hush mortal, your attempts at brilliance are noted and shall be cataloged in the wannabe section

>>729276662
Youre right, it doesn't.
But we're making fun Mr Random right now.

Hes really fucking dumb

>>729276967
i wish you really were someone that didn't accept the conjecture that 0.999... is not and never shall be equal to 1

but i despair and am prepared to live and die alone

>>729276842
Youre attemot at interaction shall be laughed at and ridiculed.
At least you tried

>>729277159
k

>>729277135
Does 1.888...=1.9
No

>>729277409
k

>>729277293
It really isn't
It's fucking cringe is what it is

>>729244836
Rather have the goat. Don't need another car that will suck up money, goat I can feed trash then butcher for gains.

>>729277535
woe is me, i shall forever live in this shame that your post exists for, which is about the longest you have mattered for

>>729244836
>double your chance to win
>inb4 learn to math
>2/10 bait

>>729276200
>doth
dost

>>729277518
k k k k k k l k k l k l ok k k k k k k k k k kk
Why not throw a few smileys in there too you cringefag

>>729277913
verb (used with object), present singular 1st person do, 2nd do or (Archaic) doest or dost, 3rd does or (Archaic) doeth or doth, present plural do; past singular 1st person did, 2nd did or (Archaic) didst, 3rd did, past plural did; past participle done; present participle doing.

>>729278146
because as l'oreal says, you're not worth it

>>729278163
Yes, exactly.
2nd person "why ____ thee?" calleth for dost, not doth.

>>729277679
Youre trying to ridicule me after claiming yourself to be a woe.

You don't even know the words you use.
Say random some more...
It's worked well for you so far

>>729247557
>729247557
That is the one he's talking about. I was upset when I first saw that one but numbers don't lie (just like its better to swap doors in this Monty Hall problem)

>>729277845
It's true though.
0/10

>>729278422
just because i am eternal bitch doesn't mean i recall ancient languages like some autistic bitch, i mean really, learn to move on, have you ever been laid

>>729278310
>quoting some makeup or shampoo
Literal faggot

>>729248796
This about it this way. If there were 1 million doors and all of them had goats except one (that had a car).

Next you pick your door, and then they take away all of the doors except the one you picked, and one other door and they guarantee the car is either behind the door you picked or the other one they present to you.

Its a no-brainer you're going to switch because you had a 1 in a million odds of guessing the the right door the first time, but now it's 50/50

>>729279058
wtf is shampoo, faggot much? wtf are you talking about

>>729278944
>Shakespearian
>ancient
Thou art sure no eternal being. charlatan.
May ye be buggered until death lest thine lies pervade.

>>729276662
The hell you mean, 1.999... has to equal 2.

(1/3) = .3333... so
(1/3) + (1/3) + (1/3) = 0.999... = 1

>>729279610
WRONG

>>729279723
PROVE me wrong then kid

protip: you can't

>>729279294
You dirty fuck.
Do you know soap?
Crusty headed dirty fuck

>>729244836
>you double your chance to win by switching
why?

>>729280142
Because it's a troll image, dumbass.

the goat problem can even be solved by a retard and without any probability formula beside understanding that if the car is behind 1 door and there are 3 door, at random you can pick it 1/3 of the times:

ignore proababilities for a sec and consider the strategies:
>no change
you win only if you picked the car in the beginning
>change
you win if you picked a goat in the beginning

you get this?
now it is simpe, what were the probabilities?
you had 1/3 of picking a car at the first pick, so no change win 1/3.
while you had 2/3 of picking a goat at the first pick, so no change win 2/3.

>>729280142
Because you have a 66% chance of choosing a goat in your first pick.

IF your first pick is a goat, switching wins

>>729280058
i could prove you wrong quite easily but then you would have to question all that you hold dear and true and it's an ugly sight to see such primitive mortals such as yourselves lose hope in all you believe in, most of you are simply not ready for it, enjoy your last days

>>729280404
Dum dum dum dum dum
Do you know about Joseph Smith?

>>729244836
In the beginning, there are three possible combinations:
car, goat, goat
goat, car, goat
goat, goat, car

Since 3 is revealed to be a goat, the third set is ruled out. There are now two possible combinations:
goat, car, goat
car, goat, goat

Regardless of whether you initially picked door 1 or 2, or whether or not you switch to door 2 or 1, there are still only two possible positions for the car and you can only pick one.
Your chances are 1 out of 2 no matter whether you switch or not.
OP is a troll, but you already knew this.
unless you're *really* stupid, in which case he will convince you that this is the reason you don't understand why switching supposedly improves your odds.
2/10 troll, got me to reply

>>729280482
> you had 2/3 of picking a goat at the first pick, so no change win 2/3.
There's a flaw in your claim

>>729248603
Thank you for explaining this. It was really beginning to piss me off

>>729244836
I choose the goattower

>>729280623
Enjoy your 8th grade graduation coming up

>>729280807
Why did you completely ignore door 3?

>>729280675
>Do you know about Joseph Smith?
The Moron?

>>729281005
Because you know it's a goat.
It's in the OP pic.

>>729281011
No, your father

>>729281083
That's not how statistics work.
You can't just remove something

>>729281181
No, that's catholics. Mormon priests are either Bishop or Priest, not Father.

File: 82720caff4a9dec9eae07e9437c4c930.jpg (110KB, 1920x1082px) Image search: [Google]

110KB, 1920x1082px

>>729281337
>you know the third door is a goat
>but it still might be a car

>>729280822
i meant "so a change win 2/3"

>>729280967
the best part of this thread of is watching you faggots explain how traveling greater than 29mph will kill you and that 0.999... is equal to 1

>>729281508
You dumb cunt.

If you go strictly off the image, you still can't remove a possibility.

The entire oremise revolves around three possibke choices.
If you just remove one, the result will always be 50%, which is wrong.

>>729244836
a muslim would take the goat from the revealed door soooo...

>>729281420
Sorry, I meant your biological father because religion and child dick sucking.

>>729281584
That is correct

>>729257379
Why does the fish look depressed?

>>729281979
Your joke is old and shit and INB4'd >>729245576
soooo...

>>729281877
>The entire oremise revolves around
No, actually, it doesn't.
One event happens, and it happens the only way that it can. You are attempting to predict what will happen, and if you aren't updating that model as new information is revealed then you are a religious wacko.
There is only one reality, with only one car. You are trying to guess which door it is behind.
It could be behind any of the three doors, so you pick 1. They show that it *isn't* behind door 3, so there are only two remaining places for it to be.
1 or 2.

The only reason to still be considering 3 is to troll people into arguing with you which, I'm sorry to say, is working better than it should. I'm going to go randomly pick one of five tv dinners in my freezer, I'll be back to tell you which flavor it wasn't.

i was always fascinated by this and even wrote a little program to test it, it was cool to watch.

here's a way I like to explain to disbelievers

imagine there's 50,000 doors. you pick one. they show you 49,998 doors which all have goats. do you switch?

of course you do, you fucking moron, and with 3 doors it's no different. it's just that "all" the doors they show happens to equal one but it doesn't change anything

>>729282769
Poor Timmy.
What are the odds of your first choice being the car?
If your first choice was not the car, switching wins.

There is always 3 because you chise from 3.
You can't remove an outcome.
Even a guanranteed wrong outcome still exists as a possibility.

>>729248469
You are retarded