I need some /adv/ There is a girl who I have known for years

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I need some /adv/

There is a girl who I have known for years who use to date a friend of mine. They have been broken up for a few years now and I have since moved one state away. Me and this girl just recently started talking again via facebook and snapchat.

She said she wanted to see me for my bday and sent me a bunch of risky photos. She also talked about how she thinks we have a bunch in common and could potentially be good for each-other and also that she finds me attractive.

So after talking for a few weeks I asked her if she wanted to fly down for my bday, she said "hell yes" and said she'd never been on a plane before but she'd totally be down..

I waited a couple days and asked her again if she was positive she wanted to fly out and see me, she said "yes absolutely", so she scheduled off and I bought the plane tickets.

The next day she said that her days off got declined, but she said it was no big deal because she could just talk to management. (The flight is a month away)

It seems she has stopped texting me as much and when I asked about getting the days off she said she would have to talk to her general manager, who she hadn't seen yet. (I saw a snapchat that said "When your manager buys you lunch") That same day.. maybe it wasn't the general manager??

Anyway, I have a feeling she won't end up coming, is this a rational thing to believe? I bought flight cancellation insurance because I was skeptical from the beginning.

Is there anything I can say to her to get her to just straight out tell me? I was thinking about waiting a week before the flight and if she hasn't 100% confirmed she's going I was going to cancel it.

Thanks in advance