>chance of success is 0.0000001% >main character and

>>155180328
Easy. The estimate was wrong. Overly pessimistic.

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>Impossible to defeat/overcome
>Power of friendship/love/etc wins against that impossibility

>>155180328
Empire Strikes Back really is the worst.

>>155180328
Try enough times and eventually the odds will give way if it's not 0. Maybe there were gorllions of attempts by others and Simon's was the one that finally got through.

If you think of it in a parallel timeline sense, then there has to be at least one universe where it was possible. There are probably billions of timelines where they failed and everything was destroyed though

>have a 95% chance of success
>lose

>>155180561
So we just happen tone watching the universe where it succeeds.

I like this theory.

>>155180580
Good luck commander!

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>>155180615

>chance of success is 0.0000001%
>main character and team fail with heavy casualties

This is such a dumb thing to complain about.

>>155180328

What if they have luck manipulation powers, like Scarlet Witch?

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>>155180328
A measure of the soul is the strength of ones conviction.

especially for robots.

>pleb OP is salty because he can't use narrativium

>>155180536
It's a metaphor anyway.

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>>155180328
>Not realizing that statistics guarantee nothing about individual attempts/events
>Instead they just give a picture of if the event was repeated many, many times... how many times would you get x result

Never tell me the odds

>>155180328
>character uses a forbidden techniques that is sure to kill them
>character never dies

>>155181538
That's maybe what you are told about statistics in highschool but basically all physical formulas depend on that something with a low probability doesn't actually happen. Entire statistical physics wouldn't work if you don't accept this simplification.

>>155181618
You are looking at the cart and thinking it should pull the horse.

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>Characters are somehow able to estimate the odds of achieving something despite the fact that it involves thousands of variables that can't be quantified.

>>155180536
the beginning kind of was an example of an attempt

>>155180580
you should play some fire emblem my dude

>>155181716
Do you know what "estimate" means?

>>155180328
>>155180536
LordGenome said that destroying the spiral absorbing machine had 0% of probablity to succeed actually. just 0%.

>>155180328
>robot id clearly just pulling numbers out of its ass to come up with said chance of success

>>155180328
If there is a chance greater than 0%, always do exactly what you need to get that indefinitely small percent and you can't go wrong. There's only success and failure, either 100% success or 100% failure. If you've failed, it doesn't matter how likely you were to fail, and if you succeed, it doesn't matter how likely you were to succeed. Percent chance is just the level of precision you need to achieve success.

>>155181618
Someday all that shit is going to fuck up and physics will fly out the window. Maybe it already happened once and this universe is the horrible aftermath.

>>155180328
Just need to roll a 20 and then laugh to oblivion.

>>155181559
>character uses a forbidden techniques that reduces their lifespan each time it's used.
>ends up spamming it and the consequences are never demonstrated or brought up again

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>>155180328
Wow, we've never had this thread before.

>>155181559
>character uses a machine powered by his life force
>dies after using it once

>>155180328
>the model makes grossly inadequate predictions
>it's not the model's fault, but the reality's

>>155181933
If the machine's job is to predict reality and reality doesn't match up with its model, then the machine is at fault.

>Both sides staked everything
>It's a draw

>>155181875
>character uses a forbidden techniques that reduces their lifespan each time it's used.
>dies at 18
I was so used to the opposite being so often thrown to create false stakes, I didn't see Chrono Crusade's ending coming

>>155181738
something that becomes more and more unreliable as more variables are introduced

>>155182910
Correct. It's something that you do when you don't know all the variables and you don't know the correct answer.
There is nothing wrong with estimating a probability of winning a war to be 0.0001% without knowing every general or ever single type of tank in use. It's an estimate.
You can recalculate the odds as you gain more information.

>>155180328
A 10% chance is pretty unlikely, but everyone knows that a one-in-a-million chance is a sure thing!

>>155183699
Crops up 9 times out of 10, it does.

>>155180328
>>155183699
Japanese math.
Have you ever played a JRPG where something with a low percent chance of happening is more likely to succeed than something with a higher percent?
See >>155181737

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>>155180328
Sometimes I hate that bullshit

>>155180328
What part of "do the impossible" do you not understand?

>>155181009
Seeing that they literally have probability altering missiles, that's probably the case.

>>155180580
Thanks for reminding me Final Fantasy Tactics was a great game

>>155180328
This thread is another proof of how humans fail to comprehend the exponential function.
Spiral power by definition amplifies any chance, no matter how minute into absolute victory.
Only death is absolute and thus it was not shown to be overcome by spiral energy.

>>155180328
This guy >>155185168 gets it.
I'd also add that this show wasn't created to show that statistics are awesome, but to send the message that no matter how small the chance is, if you feel like it's there, then you should go for it and ignore the odds even when they're against you. It's all a matter of perceptions and the model you use anyways >>155180354
. Estimates only exist to guide your judgement, they don't predict the future.

>>155180328
that's what you get for using a linear probability model

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>>155180328
>villain has (near) unbeatable, game breaking power/special ability
>protagonist's power just so happens to be the perfect hard counter for it

>>155185817
The only time I saw that handled well was in the Skypiea arc in One Piece.
>villain freaks out the MC has the perfect counter
>adapt and think of new strategies to use his power and wreck the MC
>still give one hell of a hardtime to the MC

>>155183699
>0.0000001%
>one in a million
Counting zeroes isn't your forte, is it?

>>155180580
I'm being reminded of all the times it was a 99% success rate and I have failed.

>>155188071
A 99% success rate for you is a 1% success rate for someone else. You didn't stand a chance.

>>155180328
TTGL can overwrite probability allowing him to do anything.

>>155188292
When you can overwrite probability, you don't need to do anything.
Just set the probability for all the atoms in your enemy's body falling apart to 1, and the fight is over.

>>155188347
This is the third time this has been posted.
Just pointing it out, in case you want to avoid a ban.

>>155188347
>filename not XCOM2
Where you even trying?

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>10% chance of success or he will die
>does it successfully
>does it again
>does it again against a trash furry enemy
>does it again just to show off
!?!?!???!??

>>155188639
It's a filler transformation, what did you expect.

>>155187382
>muh Mathematics
I was quoting TVTropes and didn't even bother counting the zeroes. Like being one in a billion or whatever would actually matter. One in a million is just the common phrase in this context.
>>155183814
I like you.

>>155189075
>I was quoting TVTropes
You were quoting Terry Pratchett.

>>155189104
>http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MillionToOneChance
Nope.
For Terry Pratchett's one, see >>155183814
That's why I liked him.

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>>155180328
>watches Gurren Lagann
>thinking they won't do the impossible see the invisible

>>155188232
FUCKING NEWFOUNDLAND

>>155184571
This
In fire emblem, 20% chance of crit might as well be 100%

>>155189182
row row fight the power

>I don't understand what probability means.

Under that logic, winning the lottery would be impossible.

Winning the lottery is not impossible, ergo your reasoning is shit.

NEXT

>>155191461
>Winning the lottery is not impossible,
It is practically impossible. Thinking a lottery ticket is a good investment is stupid.
Buying a lottery ticket and using the money you haven't won yet to buy a house and a German car is insane.

>>155191461
Go win the lottery then
You're not going to win it just because I told you so but a shitty MC with the power of friendship will

>>155182951
It is wrong when you have nothing to back up that number and you just pull it from your ass.

>>155192771
A Fermi estimate can be much closer to the truth than many people think.