I started following the NFL this season, and one of the thing that interests me the most is the draft system, since it's so different from the world of assoc. football.
After reading up about some of the franchises that had really bad season this year I'm wondering how it would take for a very competent front office to rebuild a very bad franchise? So if hypothetically the 49ers front office did everything right, how long would it take before 49ers were competative at the highest level again?
Are there any good examples of your team turning their success around in a very short amount of time in history?
The Seahawks starting roster in Super Bowl XLVIII was almost completely assembled from 2010 to 2012, whether by trade, draft or signing. The hardest part of rebuilding is getting good front office people that can identify the right talent and getting said talent in the right order. There's a reason some teams are perpetually shit and others can stay good for over a decade.
The 49ers are actually one of the best examples. In the 2011 season Jim Harbaugh became the coach of the rebuilding team and led them to a 13-3 record and a nfc championship game. The next year to a super bowl loss and a year later to another nfc championship game. He was then fired after going 8-8 in the next season because the front office is full of shitheads. You know how the next season turned out I'm sure.
Also the 49ers have a massive talent vacuum. Almost every good player on the team retired, got traded, or regressed to garbage. Expect more than two seasons of struggles, maybe even three.
Also Chip Kelly is a very polarizing figure and the jury is still out on whether he is an autistic mastermind or lucky retard.
It can be done in 3 years if you really hit on your drafts and do well in FA... but generally 4 is what you need.
year 1 - draft a QB and hit... he develops and is ready for your year 3 run. Also getting a good young CB and LB is good
year 2 - draft a top LT and and a good WR. Also pick up a solid DT
year 3 - draft a DE and RB and LB as they can be instant impact positions.
Also hit in FA.
So 3 years minimum from suck to contender but you need to get super lucky... really 4 is ideal for the fewest years you can do it..
The 49ers in 2010 were in a division where the winner went 7-9 and they managed only 6 wins. A lucky draft pick in Colin Kaepernick helped his last three seasons. The team had latent talent, but it took Harbaugh to bring it out.
I see. Are there any good examples of teams that managed a really short successful rebuild in the modern era (except for the seahawks who were brought up earlier)? Really looking forward to following my first draft later. In many ways it's exceptionally more exciting than following european soccer transfer season
Panthers rebuild was a very impressive one.
2010 we were 2-14.
2011 We got Cam Newton and a new Head coach Ron Rivera. Went 6-10
2012 We got Luke Kuechly the best linebacker in the NFL. Went 7-9
2013 We went 12-4
2015 Record 15-1 one of the best regular seasons ever
Yep. Pats from 2000 to 2001.
In 2000 they drafted Tom Brady and he started playing in 2001 and they won the Owl that year.
Like most bad teams they had some talent but bad QB play and lack of 1 or 2 peices kept from from breaking out.
in 2000 they got Brady & in 2001 they got Matt Light and Seymour (A LT and DE/DT) who both had huge impacts particularly late in the year.
They had WR talent that was not being used well cause their QB Bledsoe was merely okay but sometimes bad. On D they had talent but their bad O dragged it down mostly and the additions of Seymour with FA guys like Antowain Smith, Vrabel, David Patten, Mike Compton, Roman Phifer all worked out really well.
Basically they hit the lottery in the draft and FA and BB found ways to maximize talent (also they did get lucky and play over their heads).
Thanks, this helps my searching alot. Searching for good rebuilds brought up really bad slideshows from shitty sportpages, and with sites contradicting each other. Reading about specific teams drafting much better articles comes up
3-4 years is a good estimate for football. That's around half the career of an above-average nfl player, so if it takes you longer than that you're wasting the careers of the players you drafted when you were terrible.
And like somebody said, all of the challenge in rebuilding is getting the right front office personnel. Bad teams are bad because their ownership is terrible at hiring coaches and GMs. The Lions are a laughingstock because their owners kept the worst GM in NFL history for eight years. They only fired him halfway through a winless season and had the fucking gall to just promote his assistant instead of bringing in someone new. Jed York, of the 49ers, basically forced out a AAA quality coach because he didn't agree with his football philosophy, now he's hired another coach who doesn't get along with management. Some owners are just too stupid to win.
>Jed York, of the 49ers, basically forced out a AAA quality coach because he didn't agree with his football philosophy
Will read up on this, 49ers caught my eye when I went through the latest years super bowl participants since I had watched them a few times this season and seen that they were in bad shape as a team
You forgot a very important parte
2014: The team sucked dicks and finished 7-9
Yet they didn't fire anyone, you need to be patient somethings a fluke year will happen in the middle of that process
Bledsoe was a good QB who got the Pats to an Owl back in '96. Take away Parcells and replace him with an idiot like Carrol and you've got 4-12 seasons all over your shit. Yeah, he made some really bad decisions under center, but he was a massive step forward for a perennial dumpster fire franchise, and let's not forget that his O line was never spectacular
if you want more actual examples how to rebuild in a good way, look into the jaguars and raiders situations. still work in progress, but both feel like they are on the brink to turn it around completely 3 years into the process.
Rebuilding starts with the owners and the front office. There are two shining examples in the NFL right now of teams that have been buttfucked by the incompetence of their FO: Detroit and Cleveland. If you want to understand how to do everything wrong, look at the recent history of those two teams.
It all depends on the QB, if you can draft a legit one, your team is automatically competitive. The rest is doing a solid job drafting other positions hopefully with an all star here and there but you HAVE to ace the qb pick.
There are many counter examples (Cleveland Browns for example) that have done a pretty solid job at drafting other positions (Joe Thomas possible Hall of Fame LT, Joe Haden pro bowl CB, overall decent defense assemble talent wise) but have been AWFUL at QB and are considered a joke overrall in the NFL. For better or for worse it comes down to the QB first and foremost.
Colts are a polar opposite. Drafted an awesome QB in Luck and have assembled a pretty terrible team around him otherwise and overrall its been positive still despite all that. If they do a better job in the latter it could very well get them over the hump.
>you need to be patient sometimes a fluke year will happen in the middle of that process
this. the reason the browns are so shit is that they fire their coach every other year. mike pettine was turning the team around last year. then he got stuck with johny manziel.
op go look at the raiders the past 10 years and see how drafting bust after bust really fucks your franchise up.
Carolina is a perfect example. One of the best GMs in the business, great drafts, and an above average coach. FA is missing a big signing but if they're being successful I guess it's not a big deal.
I'm optimistic, but I was with Seattle since before this twelve fucking nonsense. This was my team since the kingdome and since, ever man.
Forget Lynch, build your defense, build the line. We can make it happen. Are the fair-weather fans gone yet?
If literally everything goes right, an above average team can go to contender in an offseason, like the Broncos when they got Manning. From worst to first takes a little more time, maybe two to three years, again if everything goes perfectly.
If everything goes poorly you're looking at a Cleveland-esque time table.
I have a question which is somewhat related.
When NFL teams draft some young lad from college in the draft (they are usually what 21-22 years old?), are the top picks so talented they are starters in the first team and make an instant impact or does it take a few years for them to settle in and get good? Are a player's best years when he is still in his early twenties or does he peak like in soccer in his late twenties-early thirties?
I was speaking more to what the Broncos to with constantly having talent on both sides of the ball at pretty much all costs. Two years ago they had fucking Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Eric Decker. All of those guys are gone, but despite losing them all they're still contending. No more Manning maymays pls.
They go to a training camp where they get grilled by very experienced players. It's a whole different experience. It's like being an adult, and being thrown into a college dorm for a couple months.
It's to take you out of your comfort zone.
A players hypothetical peak is the same as soccer generally I'd say, but like in soccer you have some positions that deteriorate more quickly (running backs seem to age quicker than other positions similar to strikers.)
The Panthers in the early 2000s went from 1-15 to nearly winning the super bowl (lel John kasay) in just 2 years. They drafted great defensive payers, delhomme got good, and they had great rbs.
it really depends why you are bad. If your whole defense is shit (the Giants) or if you have a terrible O-line, you have to get a number of players to become confident, which can take a while. You generally have to build through the draft and rely on a few stable veterans.
If you are missing a quarterback or need a dynamic skill player, but you have solid oline/dline (for example the jets) or if your coach is leading you astray, the change can be very quick.
Depends on the position, but most defensive players peak around their mid to late 20s, while most RBs, WRs, TEs peak in their early to mid 20s.
A blue chip prospect out of the draft isn't that uncommon. The Carolina Panthers, for example, have drafted all Blue Chip prospects in the first round for their rebuild until this past year (Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly, Kelvin Benjamin, Star Lotuleilei all first year starters, Shaq Thompson sitting behind Luke and Thomas Davis)
Usually it takes them a while to get acclimated, learn the system of the team, get up to nfl speed, take the right drugs. Prime nfl careers are usually 26-29, excluding running backs.
Admittedly they were riding out the wazzoo
No one has been GOAT right away but among current QBs Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were really, really good their rookie seasons
Should add, 2 rookies this year came in and immediately showed flashes of being the best at their position right away: Marcus Peters and Todd Gurley. It's not uncommon at all.
In spite of how bad my seahawks did (I know I'm just riding on your post for no reason) it's amazing how russell wilson could make a play out of nothing.
I fucking love him for it. The guy is so respectable, and he's a goddamn warrior on every play. Hell, I'm four inches taller than him and he's a giant on that field.
The Rams will be SB contenders in two to three years. They just need to plug in a passing game. Young, elite front 7, capable secondary, future GOAT RB, elite special teams, and finally an owner not actively trying to dick them over/real fanbase who cares about the team.
Look at the raiders
Al Davis was a great owner that was so heavily involved in football compared to many owners that he would be alongside the team and staff for draft picks , combines , pratically everything.
Dementia kicks in and he makes the worst decisions ever , after he passes his son takes over . Mark takes control of the most horribly managed team that shockingly never had a winless season in al's final years, hires a GM that was well respected in the league and alongside Reggie fix the raiders.
First came cutting players that were chewing salary like gum
Then came cutting staff that didn't improve rookies or help the team
Lastly came drafting players that were scouted properly instead of following what ESPN or profootball called top prospects and going from there. 2012-now and the results
Good FA signings
Great-good draft picks in nearly every single round since 2011
5 probowlers this year , possibly 6 if Stewart from Carolina goes to the bowl.
Potential franchise QB in Carr(franchise QBs are extremely rare)
Potential GOAT Defensive player in Mack
Potential GOAT WR in cooper
Classic unexpected FA signings that preformed well(Crabtree)
Signing coaches that have extensive exprience in professional football instead of the hot new trend from college or good single year coordinators
There is a lot more but the raiders will be the staple of rebuilding a terrible franchise into a great franchise like their former selves.
If they win a bowl within 5 years starting this year they'll definitely be the staple that should embarrass the owners of the Browns , Titans , Texans , Jets , Falcons , Eagles ,etc..
I leave out lions because they just got a new owner and are looking like potential owl contenders for at least 3 years if they play their cards right
It starts with management yes which is why the browns and redskins have been so mediocre for so long (and why all 3 of the redskins owl wins were under the reins of the same GM). Ownership can play a big part too.
Then theres QB. You just need a good QB to complete a championship but that has been a pipe dream for so many.
The raiders are now turning into a good team again because of one draft where they got their QB and a defensive star
here in russia we have american cocksucking liberal journalists who make articles how european football needs draft, how usa saves football by arresting blatter, how good is NFL system(and in the same article he talking about lenght of avg career in NFL - 3-5 years)
and the same shills sometimes support this articles by 'this 'senseless sport'have more sense than whole russian football hurrrr'
and there is funny article 'how would european football look if Americans ruled it',
>Manchester Devils, isn;t it c-cool, g-guys?
>Madrid King's coll too, r-right?
>play-off system. g-guys if USA have it we MUST adopt it, right?!
and he doesn't even mention differendt geography, different money which evry city(club) get(e.g. Barcelona will get mre tha Wrozlaw anyway in any system)
and of course the conclusion: FOOTBALL WOULD BECOME RICH AND PROSPEROUS LONG LIVE USA USA USA
no, draft system is USA-only. Europe(Russia as well) don't have this culture, this college-sport system, Europe is completely different and I hope draft will die