If you answer this question by random,

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You are currently reading a thread in /sci/ - Science & Math

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Anonymous

If you answer this question by random, 2016-02-06 09:52:55 Post No. 7837823

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If you answer this question by random, 2016-02-06 09:52:55 Post No. 7837823

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what are you're chances to get it right?

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Depends on the probability distribution.

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>>7837823

50%

the actual chance of getting the question right is 25%, however 25% appears as an answer twice. therefore if i pick a choice at random, there is a 50% chance i will make the correct choice

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>>7837830

>50%

which appears only once, therefor 25%...

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>>7837823

If only one answer is correct, then it's 25%, which is either c or d but not both

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>>7837823

"60%" and "50%" are each chosen 25% of the time, neither of which would then be correct

"25%" is chosen 50% of the time, and would not then be correct

There is no answer on there whose written percentage is equal to the chance of it being picked randomly

The chance of getting the question right by picking randomly is 0

Am I missing something here?

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>>7837832

i didnt say b), i said 50%

this is why reading comprehension is important

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Another one of those 'This statement is false.' memes.

Anyway, to answer your question, 0% This faggot is right.>>7837839

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>>7837839

>>7837925

Checkmate.

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>>7837823

Isn't this an expected outcome question?

0.25 * 0.6 + 0.25 * 0.5 + 0.25 * 0.25 + 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.4 = 40%.

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>>7838000

>Isn't this an expected outcome question?

No.

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Protip: Its the far left one.

Can anyone tell me why?

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>>7838273

Because it has something in common with all others, while all others do not.

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>>7838277

Nope.

The others do have something in common with each other.

For example the red square is the same color as the red circle.

And it is the same shape as the other two.

Nice try though, keep thinking about it, and I'm sure you'll see it.

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>>7838280

Are you stupid? I said ALL others.

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>>7838273

It is the only one that has at least one common point with each other form.

The red square is the only one that is not circled in white; the circle is the only one that isn't a square, the green one is green, the little one is little.

The one on the far left has nothing special, which makes it special

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>>7838282

And I said all the others have something in common with each other, so this attribute is not unique to that choice.

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>>7838273

The other ones are either red or a square, the one on the left is both

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>>7838286

>It is the only one that has at least one common point with each other form.

Close enough.

It is different from the others in only one way, while all the others are different from each other in two ways.

The solution was hinted in the question.

Find the odd ONE out.

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>>7838287

Let me rephrase it then, if you are unwilling to understand what I mean.

Each one, except the far left one, could be the odd one out. This makes the far left one the odd one out.

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>>7838296

It is the odd one out because it differs from each of the other ones in one way.

While all the other ones are different from each other in two ways.

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>>7838299

Yes, we have been meaning the same thing all along.

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>>7838302

lol

Sorry about that. I didn't understand what you were saying.

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>>7837823

depends which letter is right. if it's a or b then 1/4, it it's c or d, 1/2. this question purposefully confuses people with the idea that it's a multiple choice question, so you must have a 1/4 of being right just from guessing. that's true of most multiple choice questions, but it's an error to apply that reasoning to this one.

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>>7837823

I'm 100% sure the the answer is 33% so the answer isn't there, so there is a 0% chance of getting it right.

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>>7837823

The answer is.

This question is a paradox.

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>>7838564

Odds of randomly guessing the correct answer from four possible answers. 1 in 4 or 25%

2 of the 4 are 25%, so the odds of getting that answer is 1 in 2, or 50%.

50% is an answer, but it only appears once, so odds of randomly getting that one are 1 in 4, or 25%.

Conclusion, the question is a paradox.

Where do you guys get 33%?

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>>7837823

i didnt even tried to calculate it lol

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>>7837823

Since this is bullshit, let me say this: we can assume the choices A, B, C, and D are unrelated to the question you asked, based simply on fucking around with english syntax.

Just to drive that point home, let's write a totally different question:

How much of OP is made of fag?

We can also eliminate D as an apparent choice, since it shares a value with C (and if either were correct, answering the other would also be correct, which is why we can always choose C if 25% is the answer to the question).

This lowers the number of possible correct answers to 3, being A, B, and C.

This gives you a 1/3 chance to answer correctly if you choose randomly between those three choices.

However, that is merely a way to increase your odds of answering correctly when guessing, that does not deal with the problem that D is there, and weights the answer probability towards answering 25% in a truly random case.

If this is the correct answer, then one has a 50% chance of answering correctly. However, if it isn't, then there's a 25% chance that you do pick the correct answer out of A and B.

So, based on what the answer to the question actually is, I would have a different probability of answering correctly if a random selection process did choose the answer.

However, I actually, thinking about it, realize that the answer may actually be 1/3 still... But, actually the probability of it answering the question "how much of OP is made of fag" is 0%, since 100% isn't an answer.

Problem solved.

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>>7838620

>We can also eliminate D as an apparent choice, since it shares a value with C (and if either were correct, answering the other would also be correct,

>....

>This gives you a 1/3 chance to answer correctly

No.

That's not how it works.

you would have a 2/4 chance or 50%

Because there are actually two 25% in four questions.

Not one in three.

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>>7838620

If you don't believe me test it out yourself.

Get 4 playing cards 2 being the same, and 2 others being different.

Randomly pic a card several times, and see how many times you get one of the same ones.

i.e. Get 2 aces a king, and a queen.

Have a friend mix em up, and you select a card.

Record the answer.

Keep doing this for a while, and see what percentage of aces you pic.

I bet its closer to 50% than 33%.

And the more you do it the closer to 50% it will be.

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>>7838633

>>7838656

Holy shit I addressed both of those literally 1 sentence after where you guys stopped reading to call me out on it.

"However, that is merely a way to increase your odds of answering correctly when guessing, that does not deal with the problem that D is there, and weights the answer probability towards answering 25% in a truly random case.

If this is the correct answer, then one has a 50% chance of answering correctly. However, if it isn't, then there's a 25% chance that you do pick the correct answer out of A and B."

Jesus christ.

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>>7838576

I'm not completely understanding the question. What do the percentages mean? Are they the chance of being correct?

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>>7838633

>>7838656

I understand that the number of times you select the answer 25% will outweigh the other times, but I'm convinced that you have a 1/3 chance to *get the answer correct* which is the key there.

I don't know, I've never been particularly good with statistics, so I'm going to think it over while I'm shopping today

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>>7838368

>>7838564

you can't answer the question unless you know which answer is right. you have no way of knowing which one is correct without first being told. why should it be 1/4? because you have a 1/4 chance of getting multiple choice right by guessing? that's not the case here, because two of the answers are the same. you do not have enough information to answer.

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>>7837830

Wouldn't it be 33.33%? There are three different answers therefore you have a 33.33% chance of getting it right?

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>>7837830

you're a fucking idiot, 1/3 does not equal 50% lol.

go back to /b/

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>>7839381

No, I fucking computed it myself and then simulated the results with 1000000 test cases. The answer is definiely 1/3

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>>7838273

One does not have withe border

One is not a square

One is not red

One is not as big as the rest

The only figure that is perfectly regular is the one in the left, thus being the odd one out

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25% + 25% = 50%

So c) and d)

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>>7839663

Too bad that logic transitions into b) being correct which now brings your probability back to 1/3.

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>>7839562

yes, this correct

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