I have every confidence in the future of humanity. The reasons are best explained in this manifesto, which I highly recommend you read.
Key reasons; - increasing development leads to less environmental dependence, and therefore impact, per capita - the world has reached 'peak child', where global fertility rate is a stable ~2.6 children per woman. Result; better education and opportunities for children resulting in rapid development. - projected global population at end of century is easily fed by farming current farmland more efficiently (inefficiency in developing world is staggering due to poor access to modern agricultural technology)
>>7783020 I think the 21st century is going to see either a malthusian collapse or at the least totalitarian despotic governments rising on the basis everything built over the last century, all modern infrastructure and agricultural practices require cheap oil. As we approach 8 billion people we will see oil prices oscillate wildly with demand destruction lows and shock highs, there is no sign of anything even coming remotely close to replacing easy cheap oil. Good times!
The cyanobacteria poisoned themselves with oxygen, and we're poisoning ourselves with radionuclides. Just like oxygen, radionuclides are high-energy, but they wouldn't have to be consumed to serve as molecular catalysts.
Everything we know will change or die. No state is sustainable forever. Our trash is tomorrow's treasure.
There are a number of key elements needed for modern industry and food production could be exhausted on Earth within 50–60 years. These include phosphorus, antimony, zinc, tin, lead, indium, silver, gold and copper.
>>7783137 >trend extrapolated from a change over the last 5 years
absolutely disgusting. I think that oil production will decay over time, but it's a matter of alternative energy sources, not ability to drill. there are enough oil sands in the world right now to support the world for centuries.
> Sometime in the last 3 years > on the train to university > two young parents and their child > probably around 5 years old > child asks how many people are on Earth > father says he doesn't know and looks to wife > father then guesses > "about 1 million" > mfw I have no face
>>7783147 They are not my predictions, my opinions are just an amalgamation of everything I've read and I don;t even do scifi. Oil doesn't pour into barrels under its own pressure by just sticking tubes in the ground anymore, in fact takes a barrel of oil equivalent energy just to get 2 out in most shale-tar goo operations. All I am saying is human population is exploding exponentially, the energy used to make that happen is plateauing and probably going to decline soon even with a major recession, especially with conventional resource wars as modern war machines are extremely energy intensive. You have to be extremely optimistic or ignorant of the facts to think things are going to get better down the road.
>>7783982 Maybe but realize the price of that extraction and refining will cost a lot of energy meaning prices will go high when those operations fire up. Alternative energy sources won't replace much of the source we used to build everything to being with, you can't build modern society or maintain it with wind generators and solar panels, or even with coal for that matter. We are just talking energy here, let alone clean fresh water and all the other resources used to make modern life work. I don't like to sound too Machiavellian but the best thing that could happen would be a major biological check on human population, a new Black Death and mass famine.
Most future population predictions are wrong because they can't predict future human action. Africa is actually showing signs of slowing birth rates, thanks to western intervention and contraceptives. East Africa's birth rate has fallen significantly thanks to intensive efforts by GMOs like the bill and melinda gates foundations
>>7782920 0 confidence. Humans generate entropy more rapidly than any other organism yet to evolve.
It's true that all organisms generate entropy, but to do so sustainably requires that the energy used doesn't exceed what comes from the sun. Humans have strayed too far off that path to recover with any dignity.
Take /pol/ for example. They currently have a huge hunting thread in which they're posting pics and competing to see who has the best kill.
Humans have a deeply ingrained need to compete, they have hardly evolved from the pack mentality days of burning witches/hitler, and the vast majority (99%, including, no especially, our glorious leaders) have almost no understanding of these facts and no control over their primal instincts. Add in the fact that we're exceedingly arrogant because we all use technology built by the brightest minds through history and a system that relies on exponential growth to sustain itself, and a Malthusian crash comparable only to that caused by a comet impact or super volcano is inevitable, although likely somewhat more drawn out so the vast majority will experience a much more prolonged demise. Just beware of the /pol/ people, who will delude themselves into thinking whatever they have to to justify their consumption. They're mobilizing, and soon they'll come and show no mercy in their need to consume. The only hope is that they'll go after eachother first and the meek/knowledgeable can stand aside and then mop up whatevers left afterwards, but unfortunately I think we'll all be drawn into their madness.
"As long as we can still travel to the other side of the globe four times a year, we will do it. As long as we can still buy a SUV, we will buy it. This is reality."- Pentti Linkola
We will consume as much as possible and breed as much as the environment will support. If you don't do it, someone else will. In the end we will have a husk of a planet. Only an innovation in our ethics and philosophy, not our technology will facilitate any sort of change to make life sustainable.
The only reason I'm confident that we'll rise to meet these challenges is because we've been having doomsayers talking about the population being unsustainable for a long time.
I remember reading a paper about some mathematician/statistician in the 1930s reporting that billions would be starving by the 1970s because we couldn't support that kind of population, and here we are 40 years later. Food is definitely a problem, but the world doesn't seem to be ending just yet.
>>7785217 They had to breed new crops and revolutionise farming to prevent that famine though. It almost came true.
If we discover a serious renewable source of energy we'll be able to grow food artificially in vertical farms. As far as I'm concerned this is the single thing which will allow us to turn the earth into a filthy human hive.
"Resources exist to be consumed. And consumed they will be, if not by this generation then by some future. By what right does this forgotten future seek to deny us our birthright? None I say! Let us take what is ours, chew and eat our fill." -Nwabudike Morgan
Hard to say, but only an idiot would use a static model to predict future outcomes. Attempting to use current oil production as a basis for predicting the state of the world in 2050 is pointless because there are far too many unpredictable variables and the prediction will undoubtedly be incorrect.
>>7784046 I take solace in the fact that one of two things will happen: 1. The kid will realize what bullshit his parents are and devote himself fully to truth 2. The kid will die an early death due to genetic and environmental stupidity.
The human population is not growing exponentially. It's an S curve, and right now we are at the centre of the S.
Oil may be more energetically difficult to extract and refine these days, but this is somewhat offset by the huge improvements in how efficiently oil is used now as compared to 30/40 years ago. And this is only getting better as technology improves.
>>7785907 And the African world is selling the resources. Blaming any problems solely on the Western world is far too naive and simplistic.
Besides billions are spent each year on development. in fact, my country spends more on helping developing countries than it does on its defense budget.
Scientific advances in the developed world have are helping developing countries. the developed world is taking in countless refugees out of sympathy. Do you think it is reasonable to expect more of Europe and the US?
>>7784290 tl;dr You are retarded, humans are as mean and destructive as any other animals. Other animals rape, kill, steal, lie, eat to the edge of resource depletion, destroy, and so on. The only difference is that we are smarter than other species and therefore are able to dominate all of them. Also, the Sun emits shitloads of energy, and the global energy consumption represents 1/10000 of it. The reason we release so much entropy is that we lack the technology to recycle our waste. Biological life has photosynthesis and other stuff to process its waste, we don't. However we are learning to, hopefully not too slowly.
I hate you faggots so fucking much, Indian farmers suicides go back to the 60's and are caused by lots of different factors, bt cotton uptake being an indirect factor but a better sentence would be
>Poor agricultural policy in India has left cotton farmers highly exposed, this includes costs of pesticides, fertilisers and gm cotton. (cf: Deconstructing Indian cotton: weather, yields, and suicides)
But desu I don't expect a "hurr Monsanto evil" retard like yourself to be able to have a reasoned opinion.
>>7787933 Basically poor agricultural policy in India has left certain Indian farmers massively exposed to environmental and market forces, so if they have one poor yield they go bankrupt and then kill themselves.
This is simply untrue. Indian subsistence farmer suicides were on the rise before the introduction of higher yield GM cotton. To claim otherwise is to peddle a lie cooked up by agricultural luddites like Vandana Shiva, who have a romanticised view of subsistence agriculture.
To be a subsistence farmer is to live a life of unending toil, stress and crippling poverty. With increasing development, mechanisation will replace subsistence farming, thereby freeing millions from a life of toil and increasing agricultural output to feed the planet's growing population.
>>7783137 Part of the problem with discovery/production charts like that is that anytime new technology/drilling expands the size of an existing field, those new reserves are back dated to when the field was first discovered, even if the original discoverers had no idea there was that much recoverable oil in the field.
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