I am being 100 percent serious and my friends...

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You are currently reading a thread in /sci/ - Science & Math

You are currently reading a thread in /sci/ - Science & Math

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I am being 100 percent serious and my friends don't believe me, I believe that everything in the world is a 50/50 chance like there is a 50/50 chance i meet snoop dog or i dont tomorrow or It rains or doesnt rain tomorrow. someone try to prove me wrong with facts and evidence right now.

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>>7769127

Looks like my luck has run out. There's a 50/50 chance that you'll shitpost. Thanks a lot faggot

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>>7769127

Buy two Powerball tickets before Saturday.

If you're not a gorillionaire on Sunday, you're wrong.

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>>7769129

I am deadly serious prove me wrong

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>>7769127

assume you're right

there is a 50/50 chance that every single person who buys lottery tickets wins.

No one usually wins even though there are many participants.

Therefore you are wrong with a p-value of 0.000000000000000000000000000001

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>>7769139

You do know the probability principle right?

When there's more than 1 outcome it isn 50/50 anymore

Even on a sub-atomic level

>what is heisenberg's uncertainty principle?

Are u still in high school?

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>>7769132

i can flip a coin and have it land heads twice though

>iamafuckinggenius

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>>7769127

Bro, let's test this out, send your application to Harvard twice, they accept you, you win.

They don't accept you, you're full of shit

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>>7769127

I think I get what you mean

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still haven't been proven wrong

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>>7769127

m8, if you're actually serious (which I hope you're not because then you're retarded) you should read up on the history of probability theory

what you're talking about is not factual, science or mathematics, just naive pseudo-philosophy

in a mathematical sense we define probability as an even in a probability space and in that context you are simply wrong

however applying abstract probability spaces to the real world is difficult and the true nature of probability has been debated endlessly

the most common interpretation is bayesian probability for the simple reason that it's intuitive, makes sense and is easily applicable to the real world

your interpretation is "valid" in the same sense that asking a five year old's opinion is "valid" - the question doesn't have any strictly correct answer

that does not mean on the other hand that your view has any merit and in fact I'd wager the average five year old would have a more thought out view

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>>7769127

Okay. So everyday you lived you've had 50% chance of meeting snoop dog. So the chance of you not meeting him in every day you've lived so far is 0.5 to the power of few thousand (close to zero), and thats the chance you're right about this 50/50 thing

What a waste of time typing this out, you're probably high with your mates or very very underage

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>>7769722

Actually you've basically proved op wrong. If his idea is true, then the chances of it being true should be 50%. That's basically a contradiction right there, but since he hasn't met snoop dog yet he's definitely wrong. Qed.

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>prove me wrong

Said every religious person ever

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>>7769169

because it isn't sunday yet

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>>7769745

no, I personally couldn't care less. Allah has given you all possible signs, wether you choose to ignore them or accept them is your business, idc if you go to hell.

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I think this sort of 'binary' way of looking at the world is interesting, but probabilities have nothing to do with it.

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>>7769127

you should change your antipsychotic medication, friend. as a doctor, i'd recommend quetiapine.

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>>7769127

Sure you're not 50% serious?

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>>7769127

clearly you never studied probability...and there is 50% chance you are insane! and 50% chance you are mentally ill!

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>>7769762

Here come the pol memers and shills :^)

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If that were true, there's a 50% chance you'll die from getting your head cut off, a 50% chance you'll die from a plane crash, a 50% chance you'll die from suffocation, etc. Obviously, only one of these can happen, and obviously the chances sum up to way more than 100%

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>>7769127

If everything is a 50% chance then there's a 100% chance that something is a 50% chance. Therefore not everything is a 50% chance.

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>>7769815

GAHTEM

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>>7769149

>I failed statistics

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>>7769143

>Are u still in high school?

are u?

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>average /sci/ lurker

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>>7769878

If you are in university, all the shit you have learnt would have told you otherwise. Only hyper idealistic high schoolers would come up with such frivolous and unsound theories

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>>7769132

each ticket has it's own 50% chance.

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Either he meets snoop dog or he doesn't. That's only 2 possible outcomes. How could it possibly be less than a 50% chance? Someone prove him wrong. I see a bunch of angry nerds, but no one stepping up to the plate.

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Either severe autism or low quality bate

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>>7769916

Bait

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>>7769127

If Op had backstage passes to a snoop dog concert and posted a timestamped selfie with snoop tomorrow, this would be the best troll bait ever.

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Roll a fair 6-sided dice

What's the chance of you rolling a 1?

What's the chance of you NOT rolling a ?

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>every nano second is a 50% chance you will have a heart attack

>after 1 second -> (0.5)^(1 billion)x100% chance that you will still be alive

>i must be so lucky!!!1! xD

Like the other anon said, this is pseudo-philosophy at best.

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>>7769127

if you had a 50/50 chance to meet Snoop tomorrow, then the probability that you never meet snoop dog ever in your or his natural life converges to zero.

Meaning you can say with certainty you'll meet Snoop before you or he dies (assuming you or him dont die in say the next week).

So when you never ever meet Snoop Dog in your life, you'll realize that its not 50/50. Probability is more than just Boolean operations with equal probabilities.

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>>7769127

If you have 50% chance to meet snoop dogg tomorow so you had 50% chance to meet him every day of your life but you didn't. So every day, the probability of your theory is true multiplicated by 1/2. If you lived 1000days, your theory is true with à proba of 1,3E-302. So it's wrong. And you lived more than 1000days

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>>7769810

>thinking everything is a joke

your life must be boring

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>>7769127

If everyone has a 50/50 chance of meeting snoop dog then it stands to logic that half the world would have met him.

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>>7769895

Probability =/= 100%/number of outcomes

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>>7769127

You have no understanding whatsoever of probability.

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I'm starting to get the feeling that the bait is not the OP itself; the people telling OP that he's an idiot or asking "is this bait?" or saying "yes this is bait" or giving actual mathematical discussion on such a silly topic are the real baiters.

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>>7770085

No, it's funny.

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>>7769127

You've hit on the central problem with applying statistics to individuals.

Here's an example: Let's say the average depth of a lake is 1 foot. Does that mean that you can safely walk into the lake without drowning? Of course not -- it's entirely possible that you might happen to walk into a deep part of the lake and drown. The average lake depth is utterly meaningless when you try to apply it to any individual person -- the lake is simply as deep as it is wherever you happen to be.

If you look at the world at large, only a tiny percentage of people ever get to meet snoop dog. But that applies only to the world at large -- it says absolutely nothing about you as an individual. Perhaps you have special circumstances that could make it quite likely that you will meet snoop dog. Maybe you're determined as hell to meet him, and you won't give up until you do. We don't know any of that. But just because the probability is unknown doesn't mean that we can just arbitrarily assume it's 50/50 and call it a day. Instead, we just say that the probability is "unknown" until further information is obtained.

If you like, you can make up a virtual, statistically-defined model of a person, and calculate the probability for that person. To do that, take the total number of people who snoop dog will ever meet in his lifetime and divide it by the population of the world. You are obviously not the same person as that virtual model, so it doesn't tell you anything about yourself. But it might satisfy your curiosity somewhat. That's about the best you can do.

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