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>u can go in the draw for 10 billion dollars,...
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You are currently reading a thread in /r9k/ - ROBOT9001

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>u can go in the draw for 10 billion dollars, and the odds of winning are 1 in 100
>u can go in the draw for 5,000 and the odds of winning are 1 in 3

What u do anon?
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First one, obviously. The payout is just too big. I might get lucky.
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10 billion dollar draw, easily. $5k is pretty much useless now.
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10 billion only because I'd feel worse if I lost the 5k one.
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>>26219986
E1 = 10 000 000 000 * (1/100) = 100 000 000
E2 = 5 000 * (1/3) = not a hundred million
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>>26220075
That's not how probability works anon
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>>26220208
Yes it is. Or were 'odds' used in the literal sense for once?
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>>26220234
Pretty sure OP meant you have a 1% chance at 10 billion or a 33.33% chance at 5k
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>>26220257
Which is different from what I did how?
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>>26220279
Is this literal autism?
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>>26220322
It's literal 'studying statistics at uni for the fourth year' actually.
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>>26220279
You seemed to imply that no matter the results, you'd end up with 100,000,000 from the 10 billion bet.
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>>26220374
It's called an expected value. As basic as it gets.
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>>26220447
Why would you insert and expected value when set values were already given? Is this hectism?
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>buy 100 tickets for first draw
>guaranteed 10 billion
Checkmate
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How are people this retarded?
Jesus christ. This is basic math. Probably underaged posters.
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>>26220501
>Is this hectism?
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10 billionof cource, the expected value is much higher
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>>26220371
Sure you're not studying autism you dumb twat. It's very simple, 1% chance at 10 billion or a 33.33% chance at 5,000. Stop being a spastic.
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>>26220600
You do realize that there are methods for comparing the options rationally?
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>>26220501
You're an idiot.
He's right, in theory.
Expected value = the value that each individual ticket would reach if a near infinite number of tickets were bought and all of those values were averaged
It's a good way to measure the raw value of one probability over another

It's a little too simplistic for this because it doesn't factor in urgency (some people might find $10b to be excessive, and really really need that $5g) and other stuff but in terms of raw probability the top one is by far a better deal.
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>>26220616
Which is why you go by the values OP set. 100 people including you buy a ticket for a 33.33% chance to win $5000. You don't add your own values into the equation. Some top tier hectism here.
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>>26220374
you're incredibly stupid and i cringed at how retarded your post was. if you really thought that was the correct interpretation of his post, you should genuinely kill yourself.
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>>26221002
he didnt add his own values in you collossal retard. stop arguing math when you clearly have no fucking clue what you're talking about.
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>>26222073
Oh well, no point arguing with a hectist. I'll let you get back to your wizard tier "life".
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the 5 thousand

that's like a year or two of hobby, gas, and food expenses, i live at home so i don't worry about real world shit like rent or bills
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>>26219986
5000
The ramifications of getting a massive amount like that are too great. I'm mentally weak so getting so much money without work would ruin me.
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The $10b.

The only reason for anyone to ever take the $5k is if they're about to die on the streets or something, even then it's not even really worth it.
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>>26220374
you are fucking retarded LOL
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>>26220616
Expected value is the correct way to decide this, but not expected value of money, instead the expected value of the utility of that money. Money has diminishing marginal returns, and traditionally this is modeled as utility = ln(total wealth). This means the correct decision depends on how rich you are already. If you are heavily in debt (owing more than $4998) then you should go for the big gamble, otherwise go for the $5000.
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