Rate my get rich plan /biz/. Will be trading /ES.
1 point = $50 per contract. I'll start with 1 contract. I will need $5,000. My goal is to double our size from 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, etc until I'm trading 200 lot size. 200 is realistic, and can get filled easily, as there's usually 1-2K bids/offers on the doms at every price.
By trade day 100, I should have made $5,000 ($50 x 100 = $5,000), and now have $10,000 in equity, which means I can now trade 2 contracts.
Our next goal is 4 contracts, so we will need $20K. If you understand basic math, every 100 trading days, I will be sizing up on our contracts. There is about 250 trading days per year, so lets just assume I have two bump ups per year.
First Bump 1 -> 2
Second Bump 2 -> 4
First Bump 4 -> 8
Second Bump 8 -> 16
First Bump 16 - > 32
Second Bump 32 - > 64
First Bump 64 - > 128
Second Bump 128 -> 256
By my 4th year, I should have met my goal of being able to trade 200 lot contracts in /ES. 200 * $50 = $10,000/day * 250 = $2,500,000/year.
How do I make a point a day? It's very simple. That's only 4 ticks. I will use a 1 point range chart, and buy/short pullbacks on a moving average crossover on the open after a confirming candle at market, then set a limit order 5 ticks (1 tick to cover commissions) from my average fill price (doubt I will get 200 contracts filled at once price on market order due to slippage). I will use limit orders to make sure my lots are executed at that price to null slippage. There are at least 50 of these signals every day. I don't even need to work hard. I will set my stop one tick above the high/low of the confirming candle.
That's an opinion, unless you have facts to back up that there is statistically a better chance at winning roulette than making 5 ticks in /ES. That's your limitation, not anybody else.
If you don't make your tick, you start to chase making up for your loss plus making your tick. As you lose more you have to recover more. It sounds neat but is a lot harder than you think
I didn't say you would reach -10 ticks. Yeah you'd be more safe if you used a stop loss, but that's not my point. If you lose 1 tick, you have to make up that 1 tick plus the other 5 you need to make that level of profit for the day. When you lose it makes your job double as hard
ever hear of slippage?
You will experience. Unless you have a zero ping feed to CME, you will experience some slippage entering/exiting trades.
On a 200 lot, that slippage will add up fast.
ive been in the futures business for a while, and a hearing a plan like yours is VERY common from beginners. i thought id do something like that too when i first started years ago. i know youre probably convinced you can do this and think its a great idea.. but its just not that simple. it sounds good in theory but im 99.9% sure you wont be able to execute your plan in reality, which is what matters. by all means, try. it will get you some experience, maybe even some money. but your goals are extremely unrealistic.
>OP follows his strategy
>Everything works great
>July 29, 2015
>Sees brilliant trade set-up at 1:55 PM
>Goes in, places stop-loss 1 handle below
>Doesn't know it's FOMC day because he's an idiot
>Yellen hikes rates 1,000 bps for the lulz
>Spooz drops a gajillion handles in a millisecond
>Stop isn't executed because lol gap
>OP is broke
That's why your strategy won't work you fucking moron. And you're the one accusing people of never having traded before? Top fucking lel.
>OP gets his drivers licence
>doesn't know what a stop sign means
>gets in car wreck
>should of known what a stop sign means
Pretty much the scenario you just described is implying there's no such thing as common sense.
OP is shooting about 60 standard deviations outside of the Gaussian distribution of noob trader returns. A distribution that is skewed, already, horrendously to the left of "Net Profit = 0".
Some kind of glorious compounding strategy that never fails, is not subject to slippage, has zero commission, and does not have a complete cretin trying to execute such system. And even if you were some kind of trading savant (which you are not seeing as you don't have any proven strategy of capturing 4 ticks a day with 100% rate of success), you will eventually fall victim to behavioural pitfalls, error, and unexpected events.
And seeing that you already got your hands on the demo of Think or Swim (piker platform + ridiculous commissions), you are a noob with the most unrealistic of expectations.
If you put this plan in action, I would give you 30 days before you pack it in from failure (being generous)