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I'm considering picking up a new hobby, making money on sportbets (while knowing next to nothing about sports). Now I know this sounds like a recipe for disaster, but please keep reading.
I started reading some book on gambling (by a somewhat reputable sharp bettor, I think). The guy obviously knows what he's talking about and he can make better decisions by interpreting the publicly available news better than most.
Instead of doing this, I'm considering line shopping (aka scanning a wide array of bookies regularly and betting on lines that are clearly overvalued by mistake). Of course I'll have to implement some anti-ban features in order not to get banned, and also take into account the bookie's vig, the odds of the bet (probably not wise to bet on a 7.50/+650.00 line) etc
Anyway, my main concern here is whether this would indeed be +EV in the long run (aka will I make money) or am I overlooking something? I think my reasoning is flawed however I can't really say why
not sure whether /biz/ is the right board for this, the rules say nothing on gambling.
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>>1070741
It's not a bad idea. Betting small on long-shots until one pays off big-time. I see no reason why it wouldn't work, but you'll need a few thousand dollars of seed capital to make it work, and you may have to setup some shady banking depending on the gambling laws in your country.
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>>1070741
if you already have access to the lines you will monitor without needing to place bets why don't you try paper trading for a bit? from your post it doesn't appear you have your betting strategy down yet (you need to bet more when you have higher EV, ala kelly criterion). keep a ledger and pretend you're actually betting with like 5k for a few months and see how you do. if it's going well and you've figured some stuff out you can start actually putting money down. if it's going horribly you saved yourself some cash.
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