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Hello all,
I decided to use BTC for this, but anything would work. 17th century tulips would've educated the same, but I feel like this is something you guys are familiar with.
http://imgur.com/8fDUJIN
Please consult the image- we look at the bubble in stages, and show the full cycle, from $.01 to $.01.
The first step is stage A - This is the "pump" . People buy in for pennies, some buy in for more pennies- everyone that buys in here, is smart.
'Smart' people aren't the people that hold bags- the vast majority will exit near the peak- they're smart for a reason.
So, Stage A- rapid growth. Prices go up and up and up- quickly and rapidly approaching Stage B.
The people that buy in near the end of stage A are the ones that will typically, never sell the penny stock/tulips/bitcoins/etherum/litecoins/space rocks- they are 'bag holders'.
Suddenly, during stage A, there are tremors- rumblings. People get scared- they exit. The people that buy @ $100 and sell for $750 are what we call 'smart'- they pass fake assets to bag holders, who pay for these assets with cold hard cash.
Enter Stage B- The 'pop'. A correction occurs- bag holders either sell for pennies on the dollar, or they hold.
We can usually expect losses to around 25% of the 'peak' value.
Now, once the pop is finished, the smart people that bought at $100 and sold for $750 buy back in- they buy back in at $200 in the hopes that they will make MORE money- and they will. They're smart- the smart take money from the bag holders.
Enter stage C- recovery stage. The people that sold for $750 and buy at $200 go on reddit, they go on bitcoin websites, and they shill, to urge bag holders to hold, and suckers to buy.
The recovery stage will never get to the top of the peak, but we can expect 50%-%100 gains- double your money if you bought at the end of stage B.
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>>1067866
In the old days, stockbrokers would get on the phone and say 'JOHNNY I KNOW YOU LOST A LOT OF MONEY BUT ITS GOING TO $10,000 YOU NEED TO BUY BUY BUY BUY FOR $350'
This is the second pump- we create new bag holders.
Stage D- A return to zero.
The penny stock which was worth $0 not so long ago, now crashes to $0. Everyone sells- other than bag holders. They hold the bag- it's what they do.
The people that bought back in at $200 sell their coins for $350-$400- the new top, the bag holders buy them for $400 because 'hey it was $1000 not so long ago, it's doubled in price from $200 to $400- it's going to $10,000!'
Please note: If you are planning to hold this stuff until mid 2016, please don't do anything stupid during stage D- the suicide hotline number is 1 (800) 273-8255 - they save people's lives and you can call them ANY day, ANY time, and they will LAUGH AT YOU FOR BUYING BITCOINS WITH DOLLARS.
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>>1067866
Kinda agree with the chart except that C won't get as high as you think it will. I would say we are already pretty close to another dump.
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>>1068172
I personally think that C's top is $400, maybe $450.
Maybe it's $350? Who knows.
Personally, If I bought in at $200-$250, I would sell RIGHT NOW because stage D is SOON- could be tomorrow!
>>1068167
I'm glad you liked my work, all I want is to educate people that will listen, it makes me sad to see Average Joe invest $1000 and lose $1000 so Mr.Pumper can make $1000 off joe, and $1000 off 999 other joes.
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>>1068172
You're right, I drew the top of stage C at $600- I think $475 is the magic number.
I see bitcoin going to $475, then people will sell, and the ones hoping to sell for $500 hold the bag
The peak is always a little bit less than what most people thought it would be- that's why BTC crashed at $950, not $1000.
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>>1068179
Agree.
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>>1068183
I mean, there is still room to make money on BTC.
You can buy 1000 coin for the price today, what $350,000? and sell for $450,000.
The reason I don't recommend that is RISK. What if it foes to $0 tomorrow? You lose 350,000.
You want to buy this stuff is 2012, not 2016.
If you want to buy for $350, buy 1 coin as learning experience- you may learn you are not as smart as you think you are and be a bag holder
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>>1068177
>I'm glad you liked my work, all I want is to educate people that will listen, it makes me sad to see Average Joe invest $1000 and lose $1000 so Mr.Pumper can make $1000 off joe, and $1000 off 999 other joes.
I think they deserve it to be honest.
I'm just interested in learning more about it and how it works.
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>>1068201
So you bought in at $200 post crash, or did you buy in for $1 a long time ago?
It's important to pay attention to people like this- they seem like an idiot at face value, but in reality- they are smart.
This guy buys for $200- of course he says to buy for $350- he wants it to go to $400 so he can sell it for $400!
These are the 'pumpers', they own 1000 coins they bought for $200,000, they try to convince average joe to buy for $350, then they take joe's money and fuck his wife
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>>1068208
I mean, Joe the plumber doesn't deserve to lose his $1000.
The smart take from the stupid- joe is stupid. So in a sense, joe does deserve to lose his $1,000.
But ideally, Joe doesn't lose his $1,000, because Joe has bills to pay, Joe has kids to feed, and it's sad that Joe's wife and kids have to eat bread and ketchup because joe pissed away his money.
Here is how it works: The smart take from the stupid.
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>>1068214
>Here is how it works: The smart take from the stupid.
Seems pretty fair. It's like punishing some guy trying to screw others over and 'get rich quick'.
It's just teaching them that no, greed and speed does not mix.
Average Joe the Plumber thinks: "Hehehe look I found a secret way to make 300% returns! I'm going to be so rich in two weeks! I'll show all my friends and family!"
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>>1068211
Are you a fucking moron? Prijecting your bullshit theories onto someone who gives no fucks?
I bought BTC when it was $90 a piece. And since then I didn't spend a single penny on it because I EARN it through my business. And I have never sold a single bitcoin! Because I SPEND them on business expenses like online advertising (and gambling them away like a silly man)
You are applying your experience of some penny stock bullshit to something that you DO NOT COMPREHEND!
Buy ethereum.
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Embarrassing m8 you are so poorly educated on the subject. Can i ask what you do for a living? Do you clean toilets or what? Because literally every job is above your paygrade.
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>>1068227
>gambling
How am I surprised?
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You DO NOT HAVE TO PAY MONEY FOR BITCOIN.
You can offer your goods and services in exchange for them! It does not work like a penny stock!
You earn them! Only speculators buy them! I FULLY RECOMMEND EVERYONE PAY NO MONEY FOR BTC! DONT BUY A SINGLE ONE!
OFFER YOUR SERVICES and EARN THEM!
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>>1068228
I wholesale semi conductors. Make good money.
My career is not relevant to this discussion, neither is yours.
>>1068221
Yeah, I mean it's all fine and dandy to say 'Joe should pay the price for his stupidity'
But then you see Joe's kids wearing clothes with holes in them.
THATS the price of Joe's stupidity.
It's a much better world where joe isn't stupid, and can buy new clothes and good healthy food for his kids.
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>>1068234
What? Don't tell me you never gambled. What are you either 12 years old or a mormon or someshit?
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>>1068236
>It's a much better world where joe isn't stupid, and can buy new clothes and good healthy food for his kids.
Joe would just buy some other bullshit though.
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>>1068236
>wholesale semi conductors
Thank fuck for that. At least you don't have peoples lives depending on you. You can be as thick as you like i can sleep soundly.
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>>1068238
No, actually I don't gamble and it has nothing to do with religion. It just comes from liking money a lot and not liking to lose it on speculative bets. I'm not poor so I don't need to take unnecessary risks with my income (like keeping it stored in a volatile crapcoin longterm)
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>>1068240
Not if you EDUCATE Joe.
If you teach Joe, show him this thread, show him the price of Tulips in 1637, then Joe DOESNT lose all his money.
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>>1068250
LOL! Is this what this thread is about?
What about the housing market thats pricing young people out? The WAAY inflated stock market. If you're issue is with "pyramid scheme like" investments there are far far more threatening ones to "joe the plumber" than bitcoin which actually will bring enormous BENEFIT TO SOCIETY
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>>1068250
Penny stock and crypto coin pumpers prey on ignorance and greed.
If we eliminate ignorance and greed, we can protect Joe's children.
Joe needs someone to explain to him how it works, show Joe that he can make 3% a year return, every year, with little risk.
Someone needs to show joe that he can turn his $1000 in $1030 in 1 year, or he can lose IT ALL.
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>>1068251
The problem here is people like this- the pumper.
He will tell Joe : JOE YOU CAN GET RICH! JOE I WILL MAKE YOU RICH!
And Joe will go and listen to mr pumper promising 1000% annual returns, not me, who promises Joe 5% a year.
It's TRAGIC
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And things like bitcoin are not pyramid schemes! The community that uses it is the community that GENERATES it! People MINE it on their computers and issue new coins. The reward to the miner for helping to process transactions and secure the network!
Can you generate a penny stock with your home computer? Does a penny stock add any value for society?? No! Bitcoin adds tremendous value! A p2p censorship proof financial transaction network OUTSIDE OF ANYONES TOTAL CONTROL!
Its a fucking GODSEND!!
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>>1068252
>>1068259
Patronising codswallop mate.
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>>1068261
>Can you generate penny stocks
NO. YOU CANT.
That's why penny stocks are safer than bitcoins- THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A MINUTE.
Also, penny stock, you own share in a company- with bitcoin WHAT DO YOU OWN?
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>>1068261
....and here we have the ETH shill in his natural habitat. Take a few pictures but don't get too close folks. He gets a little mad when provoked. You will see a lot of these wandering back and forth between these bushes. They have literally nothing better to do. Moving on...
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>>1068267
Lol just lol. So you're proving my point that youre a fucking idiot.
You just said penny stocks are a good investment.
With bitcoin you own a part of something that a common dribbling pleb like you wouldn't understand which for me makes it priceless. I love the fact it confuses you
>bu-bu-but what do you own?
A priceless slice of the future. You will slowly come to learn in the coming years.
To me, you lot are like those tards that float in from /pol/ occasionally that try to claim that the stock market is all just a sham or mass delusion, and then you point out that it's how businesses recieve the money for investment by selling shares. And then they realise they're retarded.
The only difference is, you're not going to recieve the truth from the TV. Just people like me. Gradually though, you will be shown. Because it will creep into your life wether you deny its reality or not.
The cat is out of the bag now you can't put it back in. In my opinion the inventor of bitcoin should get a nobel prize.
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>>1068317
NO. I said penny stocks are BAD. Crypto is WORSE.
>Priceless slice of the future
Give me a break
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"Technical analysis" is akin to homeopathy and dousing.
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>>1068201
>Says he has "Peer reviewed science."
>Doesn't show any of it.
Links or lies.
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>>1068536
Even if he has peer reviewed sources, so what?
Scientists will say anything if you pay for them to have a 18 year old fuckslave lab assistant.
Remember all the peer reviewed studies that said cigarettes are healthy? All the scientists that said the earth is flat?
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>>1068536
the people that helped "develop concepts" that led to bitcoin Hal Finney, Wei Dai and Satosh- *cough* i mean Nick Szabo. Are all respected polymath computer scientists, cryptographers smart smart people.
Picture of Hal Finney (pbuh) before he died of ALS in 2012
You plebs need to show respect where its due
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>>1068536
http://szabo.best.vwh.net/
Collection of Nick Szabos papers and essays covering a huge range of subjects.
Everything from law to history to economics to cryptography and everything in between.
If you want to understand what money IS and understand how the world actually WORKS i suggest you take a look.
Once again you plebs couldn't hold a candle to him.
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>>1068536
Wei dai
Game theory, cryptography, security, computer science.
Professor, imperial college london
http://www.weidai.com/
Get educated plebs
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Reminder that nocoiners should be fired from the human race for ignoring the beauty and technical genius of the product of some of the finest minds ever to walk the planet.
You should be grateful that they created a unfuckable financial transaction method that will ensure our freedom and our childrens freedom for generations to come.
Be grateful and bow before these bringers of the light.
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>>1068632
No one is saying that these guys aren't smart- they got in the bubble at .01$- they are the SMARTEST guys.
The guys that get in at $350, 'Joe', aren't smart.
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>>1068632
I will bow if, and only if, they can weather the market storm that will ensue within these coming years.
They will get an eye of interest from me at this point.
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>>1068647
Oh, I have my foot in the door, but damned if I'm going to put my future on the line for a currency that, by rights, will likely stall out by decade's end.
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>>1067866
Op should I purchase eth? I have 200$ fun money is since I have a minimal life
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>>1068676
NO.
Etherum is nearing the end of stage A on my chart.
Stage B has begun.
Once stage B has concluded, you may purchase eth
If I understand coin base, the price has more than doubled in 1 week, yeah?
You're late. Should have bought it last week, and sold today
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>>1068598
>conspiracy theories
Fuck off with your tinfoil
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>>1068680
>Ever selling ETH
Your credibility is in tatters penny stock man.
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>>1068676
Yes of course you should. You are lucky to hear about it at this stage. Lucky i tell you. Lucky to be able to buy it now.
These two plebs
>>1068687
>>1068680
Are high grade chumps who do not see what is in front of their faces "pyramid scheme" they yell "bubble!" They shout without ever considering that they might be wrong. What a grave mistake they are making to pour scorn on a literal gift from god. A incorruptible economic model backed by immutable mathematics and the very laws of nature. I hope their children forgive them.
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>>1068696
I'm a Bitcoiner you dumb fuck. I have a lot of Bitcoin. Nice stupid ass assumption you made though. Nick Szabo isn't Satoshi. Your little conspiracy theory is dumb as fuck. You just want ETH to be Bitcoin but it's not. ETH is and always will be a shitcoin pump and dump.
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>>1068706
>my coin is worth money
>your coin is worthless
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>>1068706
Lol. The bitcoiners conspiracy of silence.
What are you worried about? That the value will fall if the mystery is removed?
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>>1068712
No I'm saying that Nick Szabo isn't Satoshi. I've seen you post that in another thread and its retarded as fuck. You look like you have no clue what the fuck you are talking about every time you post it.
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>>1068715
So prove it. I have plenty of evidence pf it being him. Short of his own admission
If it isn't him give me one thing that proves it couldn't be him.
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*crickets*
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>>1068726
You prove it jackass. The burden of proof lies in the one who made the claim. Also even Szabo and everyone around him says he is 100% NOT Satoshi. He was working on another project when Bitcoin even came out. Your claim is so braindead stupid that I'm not even willing to answer you more than that. That's how retarded you are.
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>>1068734
This faggot cares because Szabo is affiliated with ETH and he thinks if he says that Szabo is Satoshi then it makes ETH more credible. The only problem with that is he's talking out of his ass.
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>>1068736
>>1068739
Nick is a smart guy, and those around him want to protect him. but I've read all there is to read on the subject of bitcoin and there is a striking similarity in the modes of thought contained here http://szabo.best.vwh.net/ to the writing of "satoshi nakamoto"
And as long as no evidence to the contrary comes along I will continue in my assertion that nick is satoshi
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>>1068739
One last tidbit for me and then I'm off to bed-
These 180 IQ Polymaths, they're smarter than you or I-
Smart people ALWAYS find a way to make money off people less smart than them.
Think that over for a little, before you start buying this coin, that coin.
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>>1068745
Poor effort penny stockman. 1/10 for effort.
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It's a noble cause OP but ultimately pointless. You're missing the most important point: Joe deserves it. Joe is willfully ignorant most of the time too. To the point he will reject your assertions.
>A fool and his money are soon parted
>Sucker born every minute
This has always been true and always will be. From junk bonds to amway to bitcoin.
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>>1068752
>comparing bitcoin to amway
You are the weakest link. Goodbye
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>>1068756
Why so defensive? It's common knowlege. Go to a bitcoin meetup.
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>>1068753
I said OP. Go gamble with your little crypto coins or something.
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>>1068757
I have been to Bitcoin meet ups faggot. I am pretty sure I know more than you since you are just an ETH shill and I am a true Bitcoiner.
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>>1068760
>true bitcoiner
Well get behind ETH then. Bitcoin was never meant to be the final say, it was proof of concept.
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>>1068763
Fuck no. You're retarded for not putting everything you have into Bitcoin. Your little shitcoin is going nowhere. The amount of venture capital put into Bitcoin makes ETH look like a little lemonade stand.
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>>1068765
>More money has been invested in my bubble than yours so therefore my bubble is a better investment.
>>1068759
True, at the end of the day , if Joe is determined to lose his money, Joe is determined to lose his money.
The smart take from the stupid.
But there are two kinds of Joes- Joe that won't listen to reason, and Joe that had a temporary flash of insanity and can be reason with
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>>1068765
Might as well be theymos coin at this point. And the mining is controlled by 4 chinese individuals. All it would take is for 3 of them to collude and you have centralisation.
So trapped in your bitcoin bubble that you forgot what the mission was, you forgot the why. Why has zero progress been made in 3 years?
Venture capital? You mean greedy businessmen sucking value out and putting nothing in.
ETH makes that impossible. To build a business around it you have to operate as a dapp or be second rate. Which means if any profit is extracted the churn will be burning ETH. No more outside exchanges everything onchain. No more gox, no more coinbase. No more leeches.
Ethereum is cryptos best hope.
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>>1068766
Stfu you stupid twat
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>>1068774
Don't be a fag. Everyone knows you're full of shit.
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>>1068778
It's now saturday GMT. The weekend and payday. Futures traders are bored over the weekend now they will play with their new toy. You saw what happened to ETH price last weekend.
Have fun.
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>>1068779
No seriously. Stop.
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>>1067866
Thanks OP, that was enlightening. I never bought into BTC at all since I missed the initial stage and couldn't be bothered guessing when it would plummet later. Do you have any past examples/graphs of bubbles that follow the same pattern?
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>>1068789
So this is the 'tried and true' bubble model.
Now- here's the thing. This doesn't apply to stuff with no value- this chart assumes that the asset in question has a value. That's why the chart doesn't end at 0.
Pretty much every bubble follows this.
This is a very, very old picture. A lot older than bitcoin- but it sure does look like a bitcoin price chart, huh?
And they say technical traders never win!
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>>1068789
>>1068800
So to make it clear, with assets like real estate, if real estate enters a bubble- it doesn't emerge from the bubble that $0. That's because real estate has REAL value- land is worth something-
Stuff like bitcoins, , tulips, pennystock, is JUNK, so it exits at $0
Think of it like this- there is a vase worth around $100- it's a nice vase. It's worth 100 bucks.
Everyone starts buying these vases, driving the price up and up to $1000- after the bubble pops, we expect the vase to be worth around $90-$110- because it's still a nice vase worth money.
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>>1068800
Looking that, I suppose that if the media attention phase never comes, that pretty much sums it up and the value starts declining right there?
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>>1068809
Depends on the asset- if it's vases, like I used in my vase example, no, the asset doesn't decline too much- vases go from $125 to $110- a correction of $15.
You still made money if you bought the vase for $100. And in 10 years, the vase will probably be worth $150- due to inflation .
If it's an asset like bitcoin or a penny stock, if media attention never comes, we expect to see a slow decline.
SLOW decline, not a pop, because people keep hoping and hoping that media attention will come soon. One by one, bag holders lose hope and sell, so the price slowly goes to $0
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>>1068813
Understood.
Sorry to pester, but is there an explanation as to why the bear trap and bull trap would happen in this case?
Specifically the bull trap - I would think that, if the price started falling at, say, $400 for BTC and fell to $350, it wouldn't be a trap because most people would panic and sell and the price would plummet.
How do you explain the price going back up after that event?
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>>1068817
No problem. Always happy to help.
Look, the bear trap happens because people buy the stuff for $1, and all of a sudden it's worth $2-
Lots of people, people with kids, people with bills to pay, just say you know what? Fuck it.
I made 2 times my money- I'm out. I'm finished, over done.
These people lose upside, because the stuff was going to go to $9.5- they just had to wait.
That's why it's called a 'trap'.
The bull trap, is a trap for the buyers and bag holders- they see it go down 10% and they hear the shills say ' Down 50%? BUY BUY BUY! It's cheap now! If you're smart, you buy low, sell high! Don't you want to be smart?'
So they buy the stuff for $5- that's a trap. The stuff will go from $5 to dollars $6- BUT IT IS STILL A TRAP BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY, $0.
In terms of bitcoin, the bull trap was when the stuff went down to $200.
The people that bought at $200 are making money if they sell right now- in the return to normal stage.
But the return to normal stage is fleeting- the people that bought for $200 may be patting themselves on the back now, but if they wait to $500 to sell? They will NEVER see $500, so they paid $200 and sell for $.01- they fell for the 'bull trap'
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>>1068821
>hey see it go down 50%**
Typo there, sorry, hope not too confusing.
Anyways, usually, the stuff is worth a dollar, it goes to $1.15, bear trap, goes to $1.10, then it goes to $1.99- the 'peak'.
From $1.99, it goes to $1.5- bull trap. Then it goes down to $.66, then back up to it's REAL PRICE- $1.
You always want to buy the guy that buys at .66$- but only REAL assets.
If real estate goes down 50% in 2016, then buy a house, because it will go up 25% in 2017- you get it?
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>>1068824
If we really break it down, it usually goes from $2, to $ 1.5, to $1.6, to $.66.
The 1.5-1.6 is the bull trap area, lots of bulls are, well, trapped.
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>>1068821
Thanks bro. Fookin' screencapped. I was confused by the traps because it's hard to get into the mindset of the person trying to make a quick buck without doing any research whatsoever, but apparently that's a large chunk of the market.
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>>1068836
It depends on the market.
If you want steady returns over a few decades, buy bluechips or index.
If you want to make quick bucks- you have to accept a lot of risk, because now you're buying tulips and selling tulips a month later- but if your bet is right, you stand to make you know, double your money every year instead of 5% a year.
But if you're wrong? Forget 5% a year, you lose all your money!
If you want to fuck with stuff like bitcoins, penny stocks, you better be sitting there, checking the price every 15 minutes.
With an index, you can check the price every 10 years and be OK, since you won't sell it until you're dead and your kids sell it so they can piss away your investments on drugs and hookers
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>>1068840
>With an index, you can check the price every 10 years and be OK, since you won't sell it until you're dead and your kids sell it so they can piss away your investments on drugs and hookers
>b-but I want to piss away my investments on drugs and hookers
I am just getting into finance since I finally have enough money to build a portfolio. I am learning about diversification and variances etc and will be sure to do my homework before plunging into anything.
>>
The funny thing about OP is that there is no supporting evidence except a hand drawn chart with a projection pulled out of his ass.
More than a billion dollars of venture capital has flown into the Bitcoin/crypto space, with last year being the peak year (ie. investments in Bitcoin are in an uptrend and have been for years).
There is such a tremendous infrastructure being built around Bitcoin that you have to be blind to miss. Same for promising coins like Ethereum. Not putting at least some spendable dollaridoos into crypto is just plain stupidity by now.
After the news of R3 (which is backed by Barclays, BMO Financial Group, Credit Suisse, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, HSBC, Natixis, Royal Bank of Scotland, TD Bank, UBS, UniCredit and Wells Fargo) starting testing with Ethereum, how can you NOT at least put 100 dollars in ether. I mean seriously if this becomes the go-to platform for interbank settlements your ether will appreciate so fast and hard, how can you not see that?
Source:
https://jo-lang-z7qm.squarespace.com/press/2016/1/20/r3-brings-eleven-major-global-financial-institutions-together-on-a-cloud-based-distributed-ledger
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>>1068912
Let me provide some more actual sources.
Other banks testing ether: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ethereums-william-mougayar-20-plus-banks-testing-blockchains-outside-consortium-model-1529080
R3 testing ether:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/41u7m6/r3_connects_11_banks_to_distributed_ledger_using/
Now for Bitcoin:
Record investments:
http://www.coindesk.com/state-of-bitcoin-q1-2015-record-investment-buoys-ecosystem/
All these startups are still in the actual start up phases. Meaning 2016 and 2017 WILL SEE A SHITLOAD OF CRYPTO FUELED SERVICES BE RELEASED UPON THE WORLD. INVEST NOW, IDIOTS.
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>>1068921
Fucking Microsoft adding Crypto service to its azure platform. 3 great investment tips:
Factom
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/factom-price-soars-integration-microsofts-azure-blockchain/
Ether:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/microsoft-will-offer-ethereum-blockchain-tools-to-azure-users/
Emercoin:
http://www.coindesk.com/press-releases/emercoin-joins-microsoft-azures-blockchain-platform/
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>>1068926
Community is alive and well:
http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/11/28/hot-events-on-2016-bitcoin-agenda/
Interesting startups coming up:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/25-most-exciting-bitcoin-startups-in-the-world-ethereum-21-coinbase-coindesk-2015-3?op=1
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>>1068932
even ripple might be going places still:
https://ripple.com/ripple_press/ripple-strikes-multi-national-deal-with-sbi-holdings-to-meet-growing-demand-for-ripple-solutions-across-asia/
>>
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>>1068936
To conclude my rant BACKED BY SOURCES not some wishy washy projections, cryptocurrencies offer the most exciting and promising investment opportunity at this moment. One of these protocols is gonna strike it big (even though Bitcoin already made it big, the next one, or BTC itself, is going to be HUGE).
This effect will be exacerbated by the slump or crisis that the current fnancial position is already in / going to be in, and when over time it is shown that the protocols hold/are safe, meaning non-tech savvy people will increasingly dare to store value in the blockchains.
It is like being able to buy a share in TCP/IP before the internet blew up. It is like being able to get a share in the next Federal Reserve, And you can still get in while most of the world doesnt even know what a blockchain is
But they will be using it in the future.
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>>1068939
You should forget the whole "my pops will never buy his bread with Bitcoin" mentality.
Its the same as saying "my pops will never pay his bills with TCP/IP" in the 1990s. And now actually, many people are paying their bills using TCP/IP. Even without them understanding the protocol.
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>>1068946
Or even without them knowing they are using TCP/IP. " Normal" people will be using a blockchain to transfer value in the future, whether they want it or not. Big companies, institutes dealing with property and banks will build their infrastructures on them. The technology is just too robust and cost-saving to ignore.
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>>1068946
No, that's not what I'm saying. I lived through the period you speak of and saw the promise of TCP/IP because I used it and understood it.
Likewise I also took the time to understand crypto currencies. I had some I gave away when /b/ was mining them as a joke trading them a few years ago.
I just don't see it. From the delayed confirmation to the lack of clear transparency, the lack of refund-ability, the confusing spikes and drops in value. I could go on and on about the real world challenges it faces to have a chance at being adopted widely. Especially for trusting it with real wealth.
Absent a clear front runner instead of a confusing patchwork of completing coins and some widespread adoption, I'm not putting in a cent. If I'm wrong I've still got my money and you make your fortune. Alls well that ends well.
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>>1068951
Last piece of information before im off to working on my own crypto application:
just check out http://factom.org/ using the bitcoin blockchain to create digital documents, which are stored on the blockchain forever and unchangeable/tamperproof.
Awesome stuff like this is just the beginning. All these kind of services will make the bitcoins themselves more valuable as well.
I therefore foresee Bitcoin becoming more of a store of value itself (a bit like gold but without the physical drawbacks) that can still transfer value across the globe pseudo anonymously, unrestricted and very fast (which is already a very strong unique selling point in itself), and another coin becoming a true "digitial cash".
Well anon, I blessed you today, hope you lose the sour grapes mentality soon.
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>>1068968
>Well anon, I blessed you today
Thank you father crypto coin. Amen.
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>>1068966
>delayed confirmation
Most transfers are done in under an hour, if you pay a higher (still under 10cts dollar) fee you are almost certainly gonna transfer within the hour. Try transferring 100000 dollars through any other system internationally, any other method is beat.
>the lack of clear transparency
Every transaction ever is recorded for ever, which is transparent as fuck. Third parties like banks can develop systems to mark coins and addresses as owned by someone, if identification is needed. If not, it's a plus to be anonymous, not a minus.
>the lack of refund-ability
This is actually a great feature. Only the owner is 100% responsible for how he moves his value.
>the confusing spikes and drops in value
i agree this is annoying, and is a minus to me. My prediction is that the market will find an equilibrium at some point though. Also, I think Bitcoin can have a more realistic price discovery than most financial assets as it is unregulated, and can not be controlled by one party, with a bottom being the mining costs.
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>>1068978
An hour. Using your bread story, how's that work? I just stand there and wait? Block chain waiting rooms?
Transparency wise ties into confusing spikes and drops in value. The market could be completely cornered by ten people. There's no way to prove what I just said right or wrong. That's a problem.
Again, it's not practical in real world applications as it exists at the moment. To deny that is being delusional.
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>>1068986
It's fair to say that Bitcoin has some serious drawbacks. Probably the most noteable is bandwidth.
I would not put it past governments to choke bandwidth to a crawl if they want to stop capital flight (or information transfer).
I witnessed the Arab Spring first hand and watched Govts. choke bandwidth down to a crawl to shut down protests and cause confusion.
Having said that, you can still carry Bitcoin in a paper wallet, making it easy to move across borders.
With respect to international transfers, it is vastly superior to conventional banking at present. Massively, in fact, and until someone enterprising comes up with a way to screw this up (which they will if the Govt. throws enough shekels at it) it will continue to be a disruptive technology.
For rapid electronic transfers, I agree it needs some additional thought.
The biggest threat Bitcoin faces, other than vested interest (legacy bankers, govt. etc) going to war with it, is outside competition.
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>>1068994
Bitcoin is not bound to a transfer protocol per se, meaning it can run over other networks with some creative engineering. I could set up a bitcoin network over radio waves.
Network traffic can be disguised.
I really think the blockchain cat is out of the bag, hard to put back in.
A first world government destroying its own bandwith suicides its economy as well.
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>>1068939
>>1068940
With regards to Etherium, question for both of you.
OP: if Etherium is just another bubble, what stage would you say it's in now, and if it's only starting, why wouldn't you get in at the ground floor and sell before the apex?
other anon: How do you think Etherium measures up against Bitcoin and where do you see it going next?
>>
>>1069005
That's an interesting point but I'm not sure how effective it would be. Let's just say I'm a skeptic until proven wrong.
>A first world government destroying its own bandwith suicides its economy as well.
Possibly, but in the sort of situation where measures like this were considered, we'd be talking about a general crisis anyway.
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>>1069027
Obviously it's at the early stages. The software is 2 releases away from being finished. Cunt.
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>>1069084
What is the purpose of ending everything you say with an insult? Are you 12?
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>>1069027
Etheruim is in stage A. If it's at the end or the middle of stage A is up for debate.
Doubled in price in 1 week?
Sure sounds like rapid growth to me. I'm aware it's been going down yeah? Bear trap OR start of stage B- hard to say
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>>1069027
I'm wasn't considering the bubble theory as much as I am the practicality of crypto currencies in general.
As far as the bubble part I would not get involved to begin with. In a system that has no money in it no one can cash out. The only money in these systems from BTC to ETH is the money people are buying in with. Without them buying in no one holding can cash out and the bubble never happens to begin with.
Similar to junk penny stocks. No rubes adding liquidity and your stock goes to zero.
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>>1069634
>system with no money
But there is money. Joe pays dollars for ETH, which allows a cash out equal to the number of dollars joe pisses away
Joe doesn't provide most of the money- speculators are providing millions of dollars hoping they will sell it for 10s of millions to joe
>>
>>
Is there a guess floating about when Ethereum's Proof of Work becomes too difficult for even the top of the line GPUs? That is when they plan of switching to Proof of Stake?
>>
a moronic comparison. Do you even know what ethereum does?
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>>1069746
No- and in the 80s I made tons of money pumping penny stocks where I didn't know anything about the company.
Who cares what the company does? It's all bullshit- just a sales pitch for joe.
Only thing I care about is the stages of the bubble that the penny stock or crypto coin is in
Only small time peanut Joes actually care what the company does.
Company is an R+D company applying for a patent to colonize the moon?
Who cares. Company won't ever get the patent- I'll buy stock and sell it 1 week later anyways
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>>1069731
I've heard 8 months away
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>>1069758
doesn't sound like you are in any position to comment in that case.
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>>1069763
Look,
What I do is predict when the stuff goes up, and when the stuff goes down.
I'm not here to deliver the sales pitch- I'm not a ETH or BTC pumper.
My pumping days are over. I no longer get on the phones and tell Jhonny to buy buy buy and give him the sales pitch.
What I do now, is I ride the work that the pumper does.
I let the pumper shout buy buy buy, and I make money off his work.
I got out of the penny stock game in the 80s senpai to sell semiconductors- my hair was turning grey at age 25, I was always looking at my shoulder scared one of my clients was waiting for me with a baseball bat.
The best pumpers are young, poor, hungry, kids. I'll let them do what they do best
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>>1069788
>>trying this hard to impress random internet strangers
>>
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>>1069788
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>>1069655
To be clear when I said from BTC to ETH I meant running the spectrum of crypto currencies. Not direct conversion of these two specifically from one to the other. As in it's not wise putting your money in at any period during a bubble.
>Joe pays dollars for ...
That's the point. Joe pays dollars. Joe, speculators, aliens, it doesn't matter. Someone bought it. Real money was put into the system. Without that right there, it's nothing.
Full circle I come back to my original point here: >>1068752
Joe still deserves it.
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>>1068250
Joe should have educated himself and had a savings buffer.
Naturally, the lesser intelligent should have a harder time breeding and are eventually genetically stymied.
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>>1068201
SHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILLSHILL
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>>1070386
>the lesser intelligent should have a harder time breeding and are eventually genetically stymied
>implying Joe won't breed either way
>implying the number of offspring isn't actually inversely correlated with income
>implying our taxes won't pay for raising Joe's 5 raggedy ass children
>implying anyone wins in this case except the broker who swindled Joe
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>>1068242
>calls op stupid
>literally gambles with shit coins
this is /biz/ not /shill/
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>>1070492
>Blublublublublu
Thats you and op thats how retarded you sound
>joe
You're joe arent you
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>"technical analysis"
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>>1070534
>"Bitcoin is not a list of cryptographic features, it's a very complex system of interacting mathematics and protocols in pursuit of what was a very unpopular goal."
>"nearly everybody who heard the general idea thought it was a very bad idea. Myself, Wei Dai, and Hal Finney were the only people I know of who liked the idea (or in Dai's case his related idea)"
>"Hardly anybody actually understands money. Money just doesn't work like that, I was told fervently and often. Gold couldn't work as money until it was already shiny or useful for electronics or something else besides money, they told me. (Do insurance services also have to start out useful for something else, maybe as power plants?)"
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>>1068808
>Stuff like bitcoins, , tulips, pennystock, is JUNK, so it exits at $0
M8, Bitcoin has some serious shortfalls, but christ man.. it isn't a fucking flower bulb. Neither is a penny stock.
You have no idea what you're talking about.
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>>1070536
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>>1070568
Great logical fallacies per post ratio, good going.
>>
>nocoiners
http://www.ibtimes.com/jp-morgan-chase-blockchain-trial-bitcoin-server-could-streamline-loans-settlements-2287500
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>>1070918
>nocoiners
A privatized blockchain wouldn't have coins, Billy.
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>>1070466
>implying the number of offspring isn't actually inversely correlated with income
I guess you could say I was asserting a natural system where the government doesn't take anon's money to pay for shit genetics and discipline habits.
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>>1070572
>Muh Bitcoin is a bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
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>>1070923
>billy
a future crypto world won't need banks
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Next level nocoiner cope ITT.
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>>1071526
It could come down a lot in value over time. It will be on account of new competition entering the crypto space or governments trying to kill it.
"Junk" as the OP claims, does not make a consortium of 40+ banks invest into a company which is trying to harness the technology for commercial application. By definition that would imply there is intrinsic value there. Whether it's adaptable to keep up with newer innovations is anyone's guess.
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