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Are we about to enter a depression?
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You are currently reading a thread in /biz/ - Business & Finance

Thread replies: 40
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Are we about to enter a depression?
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Yep.

/pol/ was right
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>>1051002
lol

/pol/ har been "predicting" this yearly since '09. it was all a matter of time
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If we start having negative GDP right now, it won't be a recession until the end of the summer earliest. Then, the statisticians won't recognize this fact until a couple of months shy of the new year.

The stock market is not the real economy. Where are the lost jobs? Where is the negative GDP? Stop being a fag.
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>>1051009
The stock market still affects the economy though, and it's looking like it will drop sharply. Even more than it is now.
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>>1051006
They knew the happening was just being delayed and that when it happened it would be bigger than we could've imagined.
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>>1051009
>The stock market is not the real economy. Where are the lost jobs? Where is the negative GDP? Stop being a fag.
Well management is legally obligated to look out for the interests of stakeholders, and those for public companies are.. Shareholders.. When the share price goes down, that hurts the shareholders, and thus stakeholders, of a company and management has to respond (to protect the stakeholders' interests, of course). Thus they cut jobs and whatever.
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>>1051020
"looking like"? That's some top notch technical analysis, son. I will repeat again, we are not in a recession unless the underlying economy shows signs of a recession. Unemployment is just fine and companies are doing just fine too. Who cares that traders are nervous about where things will be in 6 months? This doesn't mean we're in a goddamn recession. The consecutive quarters of GDP loss requirement for a recession is exactly to avoid us losing our shit because of a 2 or 3 week dip in investment markets.
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>>1051074
>2 or 3 week dip in investment markets.
It's nearly been 3 months already.
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>>1051074
The fundamentals may not be there. Unemployment is high if you look at the drop in labor participation. The GDP numbers and equity market were levered by the interest rates and now with the hikes, the market may be catching up to the economy. You may be right, senpai. But you could be wrong too.
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>>1051094
Give me a break. There is a peak around Christmas that is only a percent or two lower than the peak you chose to start from. A 12 percent drop in 3 weeks is a much bigger deal than a 14% drop in 2.5 months if you ask me.

Regardless, a bear market and a recession (or Depression, for fear mongers like OP), are completely different things.
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>>1050999
Nope.

Pic related.

Nothing special.

Learn about market fluctuations.
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nope
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>>1051102
>1995
>what is the internet
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not me lol
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>>1051227

>investing in a meme
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>>1051074
The underlying economy hasn't changed since 2007. Unemployment is low because people have given up on finding employment and companies are still accumulating wealth at the top. We are entering a big crash.
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Can someone explain everything going on right now? Or at least point me to some resources?

I mean with the oil price going down, the stock market plumetting, China shitting itself, etc.

I don't know what any of this actually means.
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>>1051302
>Can someone explain everything going on right now? Or at least point me to some resources?

This is my adult life.
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>>1051302
Well right now it means most stocks are worth less money.
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>>1051302
>I don't know what any of this actually means.
don't worry you'll fit right in
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>>1050999
I don't think so. I believe in China. They want to be rich like a western countries, and the government has strong influences on markets there. The problem is how bad were the inefficiencies during the boom? Those ghost towns/malls are going to be complete losses.
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>>1051302
For decades and for many people, existence in the world has looked peachy as entire nations accumulate debt with little regard on how to repay it. Those who accumulated debt (USA) rejoiced in the toys, homes and other shit which they purchased with said debt. Others (China) tagged along for the ride, sinking boatloads of their own money into the debt economies.

Now, slowly but surely, nations are no longer buying into this weird fucking myth than money will keep producing money. USA's supposed 'boom' has simply been an accumulation of debt. Those who are owed money and facilitated the debt accumulation (China) were also haphazardly spending money on their own silly shit. It's at the stage now where China can't sustain its false growth any longer, USA is still trying to fool itself but is showing signs of fatigue, and all the while "muh humanity, plz halp us" is swimming across oceans and raping Europe.

Asia is fucked, North America is fucked, Europe is fucked, Africa has always been fucked, the Middle East has always been fucked but now it's getting double-pumped, Australia can't piggy-back off of China's growth any longer since China isn't growing and Russia is a desolate wasteland. NFI what South America can offer the world other than deforestation and migrants.

What does that leave you with?

You think your shares are gonna make you rich?

The world is already up in smoke. It's not happening. It's already happened. We're all just too fucking far in to see it.
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>>1051276

>>1051094 is pretty pessimistic and says there has been a 14% drop in 2.5 months. You really think this is signs of a big 2007 level crash? There were days in 2007-2008 where the stock market dropped 7 or 8 percent.

China's financial market problems will probably mean US will spend even less on Chinese goods for a while and may be able to make big dents into our debts to them. If anything this may be a boon for our economy. Same with cheap oil. Sure, Texans and North Dakotans may be hurting right now, but everybody else is benefitting by under 2.00/gallon gas! Look at the sales of SUV's recently if you really think that this is doing anything but good for the economy at large.

The stock market is really just the pessimism you're expressing because we haven't really recovered from 07/08. This doesn't mean anything is fundamentally wrong with the US economy. Let's look at the indicators:

-Is consumer confidence high? Hell yes, for the first time since 2006, people actually went out and spent buttloads on Christmas.
-Unemployment? Lowest it has been since the 2007 fallout.
-How about companies? With some exceptions, like a dinosaur pretending to be a modern tech company, most companies are doing just fine. Many companies are seeing some pretty decent profits.

So, I'll ask again, is the stock market (how people "feel" about the economy at large), some sand nigs giving away almost free oil, and some chink banks collapsing really a sign that the whole US economy has fallen apart? Or are you just listening to Cosmo Kramer's report on MSNBC?
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>>1051335
#BroEconomics. Top kek
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No one is exporting. Look at the Baltic dry index data. This is what diving the global markets.
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>>1051335
Doesn't matter. The printing press will keep printing, and everybody who bought into financialization before will tag along.
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>>1050999
Depression, maybe. Stock market crash, Negative. That is simply Impossibru. It would mean investment banks and pension funds whitdrawr their moneys and hide them under a pillow.

There is abssolutely no place for money but stocks, and especially us dollar stocks. Euro is in serious danger.
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>>1050999
I have already been.
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>>1051469
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>>1051346
The direct connections between America and China are minor.

The indirect connections are massive.

It's much more likely in the next 12 months America enters a bear market and a minor recession, instead of a 2008 collapse.

Oil and commodities crashing has helped the poor and middle class. But it has killed the stock market, companiesc and inflation.

That means unless the American consumer starts spendig like a madman (not happening) the rest of the world is pretty fucked.

If shit gets worse, Developed countries will stagnate, while developing countries, especially commodity producers, will get butt fucked.
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didn't ghaddafi wanted to start a united states of africa with a gold standard and got promptly killed for attempting that?
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>>1051242
>coping
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>>1051009
They have to get two quarters of negative stats before they can say it's a recession no? Wouldn't a stock crash would be your early indicator rather than waiting 6 months?
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>>1051009
>The stock market is not the real economy. Where are the lost jobs? Where is the negative GDP? Stop being a fag.
This scene came to mind. particularly starting at 1:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coDtzN6bXAM
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>>1051067
And this precisely is why the stock market is so cancerous.
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stock market has nothing to do with real economy. it's simply have become a place to park money cause there is no other place anymore. interest rates are 4000 years low or something.

>>1051602
it's less cancerous than many other options. like real estate which some people have seen as another place to park money. stocks are atleast somewhat goods producing companies. real estate does not produce anything. it's the real cancer when people try to safe park their moneys to real estate
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>>1050999
Most likely, my country is starting to go to shit again. How will you prepare anons?
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>>1050999
Who the fuck is "we"?
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>>1051335
GTFO Ron Paul, no one is buying your shit and I don't want a free copy of some faggots book telling me to stockpile gold and buy stock in the pyramids
Thread replies: 40
Thread images: 9
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