>>1045186 Screenshot this shit. Oil is going to keep falling and it'll bottom out around $10.00 per barrel.
OPEC can't do shit and American companies are going to drastically increase supply up until 2025. The EIA predicts that demand will meet supply around 2017, but I think they're wrong. This is all a hunch, but I believe that oil companies feel bullish for the future demand for oil, but they're going to be wrong as fuck.
>>1045365 None of you assholes must be in the oil producing business. % years a go a shitload of drilling took place onshore and offshore. Producers were smart engineeringly and found oil offshore and onshore in the tight oil strata.
All those projects are coming online now as sellers compete with each other to sell oil as fast as possible. This will happen for at least another 5 years.
The producers want the fucking money they borrowed to drill themselves to death back in their wallets. When oil was near 100 they drank the investment bank kool-aid and "leveraged " their assholes open to be exploited for 5 to 10 years from now.
Just because you find an oilfield doesn't make you a trader or a speculator. Just like finding a huge oilfield doesn't make you a instant fucking A380 pilot.
>>1045186 Yes, fuck yes. Not only should you buy you should get the max cash advance on your credit cards and buy with that money too. Pawn anything you have of value for cash. Don't worry about having to get your shit back out of hock or paying off those credit cards, you'll be laughing all the way to the bank when oil fucking skyrockets to $40 next week
>>1045467 Actually it's not that big of a deal to shutdown relatively inefficient shale and tar goo operations compared to say the Saudi sea water injection programs of 10 million barrel a day because if they do they rick fouling the fields.
Not to mention the increasing year on year risk of a major conflagration in the middle east, throw in an unstable Russia and shit could go sideways any day and you can kiss cheap oil goodbye. I foresee many shocks and demand destruction cycles, an oscillation if you will into some dark ages. Betting against the very substance that built the modern world and the goo it relies on to function is not a good one.
>>1045198 We're blowing up a balloon. People have been calling it to burst since it was the size of a basketball.
It still hasn't burst.
It is now the size of a large watermelon. We are still inflating it.
Is it MORE or LESS likely to burst now then at any point in the past?
But by that logic it is always more likely to burst then before we inflated it. We must measure it with something external to the ball and the rate of inflating.
Saudi oil cost of production. Cost of production is estimated at $10USD. They need $40 USD to maintain their government expenditure. Right now they are losing money.
I would say yes. Buy oil. Don't expect it to go skyrocketing up, don't expect to pick the bottom. But slowly at this time dump whatever you have to spare from your savings and weekly income slowly into oil. Buy in all the way down to $25 ish.
>>1045186 everyone is long oil right now, though looking at the pattern movement last months a bounce is possible but this does not feel like a bottom, it most likely wont be V shaped like it was in 2009 iran entering the market also
>>1045823 >At that point why would you extract and sell it to pay off the loans instead of writting the project off or putting it on an indefinite hold
That is exactly what companies like Exxon Mobil and Shell will do. The issue is the hundreds of small E&P companies that don't have the cash to service their debt without selling from the wellhead. They have to sell at a loss to generate cash to pay back the banks. A lot of these guys will go under in the next 2-3 years if oil stays below 50.
>looking for other ways to pay the money bank.
This discounts how hard it is for companies, even small ones, to venture into other areas of business. Not a lot of oil producers will open restaurants to cover cash burn. They'll just go bankrupt.
>>1046221 I'll sell you some for $100/bbl now. Just hold it to $200 and think of all the money you've made. While you'll be $70/bbl "underwater to start, remember what they say here on /biz/......"It's not a loss until you take it..."
You fags keep talking about supply, but what about demand? China has slowed down tremendously. I suspect the 7% growth figure is "massaged". Look at BDI # still record low and falling. Without an increase of global growth the supply will continue to be a looming issue be it $20 or $40 oil.
What's the saying "wall street's graveyard is filled with guys who were right too soon."
We're probably going into another recession (see durable goods orders and inventory/sales ratios.) Oil will stay depressed for a long time if that's the case. Are you going to buy calls on oil? Be prepared for those contracts to expire worthless until we see another expansion. You could be buying calls for years before they start to pay off.
What you would want to do is look at the gas prices at the gas station. When it goes over, let's say $2.00 per gallon (it's like 1.80 here) then buy oil stock. However, for now, we should wait and watch the news.
You can also wait until oil stock goes lower than 20 bucks. When it does, then buy it.
>conventional oil production peaked in 2005 >by 2008 a barrel was $140 due to limited supply >new oil production from fracking financed by low interest rates comes online >oh shit we drilled too much, prices collapse >fracking requires constant new drilling because the wells deplete fast >new drilling no longer possible, fracking companies will fail and oil will be in limited supply again
Eventually it has to go back up, pic related China will need shit tons of oil in the future
>>1047150 Kek I live in Alberta too, graduated from a trade school engineering technologist course last year, pretty fucked job wise but managed to get a labour job at an oil company but I could get laid off at any moment
Feels bad man should have become an accountant or some shit
Peak oil is no longer worth considering. It's peak consumption that's the real boogie man. Consumption should rise in the medium term but we could hit a point where the world is industrialized to a certain point and oil consumption starts declining with efficiency. That's when it's time to actually abandon ship. Probably a century away though.
>>1047038 I visited with a former EOG petroleum engineer last week who is selling houses now in the Dallas area. He told me that he got laid off recently. Then he said that the 1,000 sq ft house near facing the feeder road to I-30 was "a fucking steal" at $198k.
>>1045186 geologist here. no it won't. Iran just opened up it's oil markets to the west. now you have a ton of more, cheap, oil flowing into the west. It's going to crash even harder after this. expect it to drop below $20 a barrel. on top of that, everything will be going electric in a few years. invest in lithium.
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