HOLY SHIT OIL.
Under $30 a barrel right now?! Buy the dip? There's no way it can dip more than this.
>There's no way it can dip more than this.
Go long 9mm's. Oilfags are on suicide watch.
The whole "it can't go any lower lel" meme is dead af. If it drops from $29 to $20, you lose 33% of your investment from here. Any retards who bought at $45 will need a 50% GAIN to break even. Most of these poors will be forced to double down to have a chance at breaking even in the next few years. $15 oil would put the bullet right in their brain.
Fucking good luck if you think it hits $40 this year.
It's all supply and demand. There is no increase in demand and it might decrease if there is a recession and there is a lot of supply and it might increase driving prices down. Buy when the supply decreases.
le stay away from oil industry meme
thanks anon who said to watch the permian basin
Wait for Iran to get involved.
Wait for Shillman sachs to start calling $10 or something dumb.
He does this when because he wants to buy the oil from those that bought in at $20, and $30...
Eventually hel'l have positions in oil going from $25 down to $19ish.
Then a geopolitical event will occur such as a nuke going off, or something that will jolt oil demand and price will rise back to 40-50 and stall there for years waiting for the next event.
Goldman will profit from $20 - $50.
ie; Goldman will invest billions into buying up cheap oil at $27 down to maybe $20. and sell billions at $50, effectively making tens of billions of dollars off this oil play in the comming years.
Be like goldman.
The bottom will be in when the press stops writing about "when will oil bottom?"
Some speculator just sold for a negative price. He had to pay someone to take the oil he would have had to take delivery on and store. Which he had no capacity to do, being a trader.
The bungee cord is getting pretty taut. Supply is only a little bit more than demand right now. Shale rig count is already down significantly. A few more players need to get knocked out now. Then it is going to rocket back to 70$.
Hopefully those Iranians have been supplying the houthi fighters with enough money and equipment to knock out some Saudi pumps. That would be the homerun needed to really shake up the status quo in the ME.
How do you "buy some"? What is the "oil store"? Where does it go? To my house? Does it sit in a port forever if I don't pick it up? Does it expire and become useless if I hold onto it for too many years waiting for the price to bubble?
Oil is a commodity. Commodities are things businesses use to make money. When they make money everyone likes them and wants to be in their business. The company says OK and sells shares of the company. The buyers hope the company uses commodities wisely and makes a profit.
Oil producers spend money to drill holes in the ground and suck the oil out of the ground. That is because they know there are buyers of their oil. Those buyers are companies who either refine the oil or transport the oil to resell later.
The oil gets a lot of attention. People who invest in refiners or pipeline companies watch oil to see what the price of it does. Some people like to make bets on the direction the price of oil might take in the future. They make a business out of those guesses. You can start such a business on your own. Or you can make a business of investing in the various publicly traded companies.
Another way you can "make money in oil" is to hire a big titted dominatrix to run a BDSM parlor (in Houston, New York, Singapore or Zug, Switzerland.) and cater to oil and gas professionals who will pay (via company expense accounts) for therapeutic visits to your parlor. A propane trader in Houston has done this but his industry peers don't like to talk about it.
it hasn't hit the bottom yet, stay on target
anyway, you should be less interested in the price of oil and "muh 8X leveraged futures" and more interested in panicking speculators fleeing from lower risk oil stocks
When you buy an oil futures contract, you are literally agreeing to buy 1000 barrels of crude oil at whatever price you lock in. If you wanted to you could have it delivered to your house.
And yes oil expires.
>If you wanted to you could have it delivered to your house.
This isn't correct. The clearinghouse would deny it due to "the rules" of the exchange. Also, no delivering entity would agree to such a delivery.
The clearing house would force the liquidation of your position gain or loss.
it's the dollar that is rising, and will continue to raise to insane levels coming years. that's why oil is FUCKKKED as all commodities priced in usd
Good delivery on a crude futures contract is at Cushing, OK.
if you want delivery at your house, you're going to need to pay some combination of pipeline fees, barge fees, and trucking fees to get it there.
Gas Prices drop below a dollar in Michigan.
Oil dip buyers on suicide watch.
>you thought them paying you to buy was a meme.
yeah sure kid, buy away. There isn't a glut or anything
mehh. most people use unlimited or mini futures meaning you can sell and buy whenever you want. you just track the price with the leverage of your choice
>OP is basing decisions on the hope that middle easterners are going to act rationally.
No need to be rational. Those ME countries are running a huge budget deficit.
They will eventually have to capitulate or will go bust and ISIS is going to take over.
In either case, oil goes up.
the reason they ramp up production at a loss is
1. firing employees or paying them not to work is more expensive than pumping at a loss
2. bigger oil companies are trying to maintain their market shares and squeeze out the competition which goes bankrupt
when iran gets involved they will do the same
safe mode: chevron, exxonmobil, maybe statoil
moderate risk mode: some big but depended on production and have little refining things -companies
high risk mode: gazprom, noble corp
absolute madman mode: transocean, seadrill
>There's no way it can dip more than this.
There are numerious people saying it might hit 10 dollars by the end of the year.
You forget that Iranian oil hasnt hit the market yet, and the US has not started exporting yet. Combined with Iraq and Libya cranking up in the next month prices are going to plunge before April
24 is the first buy signal. second signal is lower but 24 is safe buy already
>There are numerious people saying it might hit 10 dollars by the end of the year
True, but there is no way that $30 is the long term equilibrium price. So it must go up in the medium term.
Holy shit we need a sticky I can't take this any more.
Why do I keep coming here?
The memes are funny sometimes, but in terms of actual business/finance discussion you have to swim through all of this shit.
I mean GOOD GOD!
You are right. Equilibrium for oil has always been assumed to be 40-50 a barrel. That however was in a world where China consumed every spare drop the world had and the US did not export a drop either.
The US exporting is worth 5-10 dollars a barrel alone to world prices. You are realistically looking at 30-40 a barrel medium term. Long term, who knows. Iran could be banned from sales period (if found to have a nuclear weapon for example) Saudi Arabia could run the tap dry and keep oil at 10-20 a barrel for the next decade just to spite Iran. Godzilla could attack Tokyo.
How do you faggots feel about my latest aquisition?
No industry in the US destroys capital better than the energy business.
>24 is the first buy signal.
Only if the price is rocketing through it up from 9/bbl, because that is where it is going.
Would you get on a southbound train because you hoped it would go north?
Also another probably pleb tier question, but say there was a trade embargo declared on the US. Is fracking enough to sustain our country for 10-20 years? Or would we be completely fucked?
>There's no way it can dip more than this.
-last words of some jackass before oil tanked even further and wasn't able to break even for another 4-5 years
Those faggots were calling $90/bbl back in 2014 prior to the crash, then $60, now $20. Either they're retarded like everyone else and their predictions can't lead the data or they're le meme jew fucking everyone over. It's a combination of both. I don't see why a giant investment bank like who can manipulate the market would put out anything trustworthy.
kinda like all the financial advisors/economists of late. They spout all kinds of comments, and maybe one in 200 has a clue what they are saying. If you are wrong, nobody will remember it, but if you are right the media will hail you as the new fucking Midas.
>happeningfags cry wolf about peak oil economic collapse
>happeningfags now crying about free oil economic collapse
There will be countries going bankrupt. I cant deny i dont enjoy oil dependent leech countries to blow
Saudi Arabia could in theory produce oil without losses at $ 10-20. But it needs a price of $ 100 to balance its budget. The budget cuts would have to be very deep, in order for a $ 40-50 being sustainable for them. The other OPEP members are feeling the pain as well, being Venezuela the first to go.
Prices will have to go up. For us it's an investment in a portafolio, for them it's the integrity of their nations.
Everyone knows about the oversupply right now.
Let's think about demand. Developed countries were in demand decline, but that has stabilized. China has about 20% middle/upper class people who will not go back to riding bicycles. So, that's 250 million people who are fairly new car buyers.
Demand will stabilize and then grow rapidly. OPEC is following the standard drug dealing biz model. Give it away for free > Once they start clucking > rape em
Its gonna rock bottom around 15$ is my pure guess, so Im waiting for it to go very low and start going up. The Iran situation is gonna fuck the price up badly anyway so if youre buying now....
Hey anon, what's the daily oil supply and demand?
I've read from some sources that it's only about 2 or 3 million barrels extra supply.
At these prices everyone is hemorrhaging money.
Only a couple more companies need to fall before demand and supply are balanced. Then the price is bound to overshoot in the other direction.
>I've read from some sources that it's only about 2 or 3 million barrels extra supply.
Tht's about right. The extra oil is filling up giant storage tanks and ships that carry crude. The realization that the ocean of oil from underground is filling up tankage above ground is what hammered the back of the crude oil price curve in the last few days. Lots of oil with prices for it lower for longer.
Why are retards blaming the Arabs? There are no feasible production cuts without suicide, look at the 80s. Everybody else is pumping full speed, so why the fixation on OPEC? They stopped being bitches and let oil find its true market value?
Okay you stupid motherfuckers, I'm about to drop some knowledge on you.
Oil is going down further and its staying down for a long, LONG time.
How do I know this? Well I'm going to tell you.
The Cushing oil storage facility is at literally the highest levels it has ever been before. What does this mean? This means it is cheaper for oil producers to pay for storage and wait for higher prices than to sell their oil right now. Oil rigs are literally storing all of their oil which would normally drive down supply, AND OIL PRICES ARE STILL DROPPING.
Iran entering the market doesn't help. The saudis and the Iranians can continue to make money at these small margins, PLUS drive out any shale and offshore drilling while they are at it. So lets say Iran does cap oil and market (albeit artificially) does start to see a supply drop and the prices raise. What happens next?
What happens is the oil companies start to release reserves, probably the second they can start to make money per barrel. What happens when they start to release these massive reserves?
I'LL TELL YOU WHAT HAPPENS!
Oil supply remains constant, and the price per barrel stays low until all the reserves are drained. And that's if everyone drains their reserves! What happens when the big boys can afford to keep all their reserves in storage? Then we never see the storage numbers drop significantly and we stay in contango for literally fucking years.
Until the Cushing oil storage facility is at 20,000 barrels, (1/3 of its current reserves) OIL IS NOT A BUY.
BUY THE DIP!!!!
A barrel of oil cost less than the barrel that the oil is kept in.
Oil is cheaper than milk and water.
What's even the point of these threads? You all know it's impossible to predict the market right? If some event were about to occur that would affect the price, and everyone knew about it, then the price would be affected by the knowledge that the thing was about to happen. Nobody knows what will happen before anyone else. The only way to guarantee you make money is to be an insider or have a fiber optic cable running out the window of the NYSE into your computer
>20,000 barrels, (1/3 of its current reserves)
You sure about them numbers friend
The scariest article ive read in the last few weeks was about oil production in North Dakota.
Last week a producer PAID 50 cents a barrel for it to be taken away.
Later in the article it explained it cost a lot more than that because right now the oil inside the barrels is actually worth less money than the barrel itself was to buy
A vehicle is factually by all accounts the most far thing from an investment possible. You can save some money on a vehicle but there is no way you can generate more from it with standard use.
The reason is because tensions have risen so badly between the Saudi's and Iranians that Saudi has literally said, "fuck it we are going to kill your money and supply."
Saudi factually has more oil than practically anyone. They are selling it and driving the market way down so that Iran is going to be selling all they have and taking a HUGE financial hit. It's literally kind of a "fuck you" situation. In the short run Saudi will lose, but they have so much supply that they can take the hit now for a huge return down the road and eliminating competition.
With standard use no, but cars can be investments.Nothing holds its value like a Ferarri. An F40 was 399k brand new in 1992. Today a registered F40 can get well over 2 million. An Enzo was 700k in 2003, today they regularly get well over 3 million
Are you that same jackass that wants to buy the Ferrari f430?? The f40 didn't increase in value because it's a Ferrari, it's because there was a limited amount made. Almost any of their other cars are complete wastes of money. Don't be that stupid
No im not. I am actually not a big car person, but you are correct to an extent. Limited production cars from big name companies like Lamborghini, Ferrari, and to a lesser extent Porsche appreciate very well.
Interestingly though, limited production from someone else doesnt appreciate at all. A prime example is a Mercedes Benz SLR. In 2003 they listed for 489k. Today a registered SLR in perfect condition can be had for under 150k all day despite low production numbers
Actually this place was pretty good a year ago. Twas pretty spot on with quite a few bets and I made a killing on it, just from betting it would go up or down. Twas fun.
Give it a chance there are a couple experts
I just got off the phone with the CFO from the largest foresting company in Norway.
We're investing in real estate in the U.S. together and we were talking about how the oil crisis would impact Texas.
He told me Statoil has apparantly heavily invested in all of the shale projects in Texas and is bleeding heavily right now.
Assuming third world countries run on first world economies
Lots of stupid fucks in this thread talking about how a barrel is more expensive than the oil like it means something. It's a unit of measurement, oil doesn't touch a barrel these days, it goes in tanks, tankers and pipelines
it was announced months ago and already priced in, further drops can be attributed largely to the panic
a drop of 4 billion when before oil prices dropped they were netting at least 20 billion is not catastrophic, I think "maybe statoil" is an apt description
You said just what it is, bets. There's no such thing as an expert. The top fund managers in the world don't beat the market. Sure, there are some with great historical records, but it's all luck. Those with great records don't continue to do better than anyone else on average. And you can never guess who will have a great guessing record before it happens, otherwise the stocks they promoted would artificially increase in price thus negating the value of the prediction
Anyone dumb enough to be buying oil right now deserves the ass kicking the market is going to give them.
I took a very very small position in DWTI at close to 307.50. WTI was around 31.74 at the time. Looking for oil to go under $20 over the next month. I haven't screwed around with these etfs since back in October when DWTI was in the 80s. I was riding it up and down and made nice profit. But wow, really didn't see it pushing $500 then.
dude, get ready. The only thing propping oil up in reality right now is countries stepping in and trying to stem the bleeding with initiatives. But that won't hold for long. If we break through supports even once for dwti or the likes when oil is dropping again, we're going to 500+.