do you see the minus sign near the middle bottom of the pic? and then bottom band thats right above it? take a piece of paper and, being parallel with the rows, see how close the last close is to where the band made its most recent bottom.
>>1041375 I use bollinger bands while trading forex. Live. On a daily basis.
I use them to keep in mind what the higher timeframe is doing while I'm down in the 1 hour space.
Eg. In the one hour space I see an uptrend, with a small turn down. Buying oppertunity right?
Well with the 200 or higher bollinger band on I can see that that center line or the upper band is being approached. At 200 period we're effectively looking at 8 days worth of data. Without having to zoom out.
Quality of life thing mostly. I'd never actually trade off of it though.
>>1042359 TA is like bullets, but the gun and the guy shooting it is FA.
If you're just doing FA, then sure you can kill someone. With great effort and much punching and possibly harm to yourself you can kill someone.
But with TA+FA, it becomes a lot easier to kill (get in and out at a profit) without hurting yourself.
With just TA... It's a bit weird. Sometimes you nail trades. Sometimes they go wrong and you don't know why so you start looking thinking:
"Hmmmm maybe this little trend line here should actually point HERE, and this little heads and shoulders is actually a really bent out of shape teacup".. Yeah That's how it should've been if i'd drawn that I woulda been profitable.
When really you're trying to long CAD in an oil turndown.
>>1041375 they just measure standard deviation....
the use of them is naive at best - firstly if you're going to assume a normal distribution and start applying the central limit theorem you'd want your data to be independent... financial time series data doesn't have this quality, each entry is related somewhat to the previous and serially correlated. The assumption of normality is flase too - financial data is known to have fat tails. Lastly the sample size used is often too small to have any meaning.
Basically they're just fancy lines on a chart and like most 'technical analysis' just used by simple inumerate people who wan't an easy framework to help them make trading decisions because they don't know enough about statistics to do any proper forecasting themselves.
>>1041438 >>1043155 found the incompetent morons who failed miserably when trying to use TA and instead of accepting how stupid they are they project their failures onto everybody else. stay poor while a winner like me scalps his way to loads of money in a matter of minutes you faggot turds LMFAO.
>The seeming simplicity of just using a chart with some indicators or lines attracts many beginners. It would seem like such a great shortcut. You don’t really need to do real work, just look at a chart. Throw in a few indicators named after some authors and you’re done. It’s a seductive idea, that you don’t really need to work hard. This is why the field is attractive to retail traders and that in turn is why it’s an attractive field for those peddling products based on colorful names and back stories.
>>1043260 Except that technical analysis is not devoid of work. Hell, indicators are not really part of classical technical analysis. Professionals often disregard most of technical analysis because they have clients. Brokers need to buy or sell already certain amounts and they need to do so in a way that minimizes market impact (this is the main reason trends are generated). Also, those who profit from speculation often work in the short term because the longer the timeframe, the more factors are in play, such as macroeconomics, laws, regulations, politics, war, earnings seasons, etc. Short term speculation can be done with several tools, TA is one of them. TA IS statistics. A bar that is bigger than the last 80% of the bars doesn't arise by mere chance. Actually it does, but it's extremely uncommon. It's often generated by institutional pressure, either selling or buying pressure, and it will usually last for a while, since institutional players often have enormous orders to execute. Also, there's the expectation of all other traders (retail OR institutional) to be able to buy/sell after the surge at better prices. Why would I buy NOW something that has been falling with significant pressure? Unless there's a significant signal of a direction shift, I'll wait and buy lower. This is CROWD PSYCHOLOGY. TA is nothing but analysis of the markets' fears and expectations.
Now, indicators... Price action analysis is, by definition, devoid of indicators. Indicators are based on price. If you can read the price action correctly and infer which direction is more likely at any given moment, you don't need indicators. BB are supposed to capture something which is not easily seen: volatility. It's not an easy task to analyze, in real time, where price can probably revert direction. But I'll not buy just because price hit the lower band! I'll wait for a confirmation signal, something that shows me that selling pressure is gone, at least for a while. Volatility is statistics.
Take this, for example. Disregard the colored lines, it's a volatility indicator which serves other purpose (StopATR).
I don't buy a hammer (or bull reversal bar) just because it's a hammer. It's not a kids game, for fuck's sake. I made this trade because it showed buying pressure at an level universally recognized as an interest zone: the previous day close.
OP, you need to understand what volatility means and how an indicator of volatility is supposed to be used. You need to study price action. Period. Some beginners are attracted to indicators because they seem easy and simple, but price action is not simple. Al Brooks wrote around 3000 pages on it, go read it, just skip the first book (Bar by Bar). Indicators are to a trader like a good pair of shoes are to a runner. It serves a purpose, but it's not the main source of the runner's work and performance.
>>1043315 Not worth my time. My account speaks for itself. Then again, I don't need 100% of my trades to work to make a living of trading. No human being has an accuracy of 100% or near near 100%, not even macro analysts. You just need to profit enough from winner trades.
>>1043332 Actually, classic TA came first, then a bunch of mathematicians came and created indicators, but no one but themselves knew how to use them. These days, most indicators are not used how their creators intended and most beginners pay most attention to the indicators than to the price.
>>1043380 well the thread is about bollinger bands...
which are pretty crap as already pointed out
if you want to define TA as anything using historical price data then sure - some of it has uses... most of what is labeled as TA though and talked about in books specifically about 'TA' is absolute garbage
>>1043490 prices are never random like price just doesn't randomly move there's a reason why price is where it's at and that's because two people came together and made sweet, sweet financial decisions together
>>1043484 >you said you needed independent data to do time series analysis
no I didn't... you need to learn to read - I pointed out that the normal distribution is applied to independent data
>im basing my numbers off of a normal distribution. literally google "standard deviation" and you'll see. >what is your data? seriously? "no this" "no that" that's all you say. you're a fucking troll.
you're a fucking retard as suspected previously... you're applying the normal distribution to financial time series data
even though you're claiming to be using the normal distribution you can't even get the percentages correct... 95% of the data is within 2 standard deviations of a normal distribution and it isn't even applicable here....
>>1043518 >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem In probability theory, the central limit theorem (CLT) states that, given certain conditions, the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed,
bollinger bands are based on statistics and give an indication of whether a stock is likely to be oversold or overbought. it's not voodoo magic, alchemy or luck. you're a pathetic pleb if you blame everything you don't understand as "luck" or whatever.
>>1043531 Honey, I don't need to prove you anything. Scammers show fake/demo account track records because they are trying to sell you something. The system works, there are countless traders making money at SMB Capital and others using this system. What doesn't work is the trader.
In finance, fat tails are considered undesirable because of the additional risk they imply. For example, an investment strategy may have an expected return, after one year, that is five times its standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, the likelihood of its failure (negative return) is less than one in a million; in practice, it may be higher. Normal distributions that emerge in finance generally do so because the factors influencing an asset's value or price are mathematically "well-behaved", and the central limit theorem provides for such a distribution. However, traumatic "real-world" events (such as an oil shock, a large corporate bankruptcy, or an abrupt change in a political situation) are usually not mathematically well-behaved.
>>1043531 the only way to prove that what track record i give is actually mine is to give you my log in details. i've already been through the rodeo.
>>1041438 This basically, if you are merely human you should go long term with fundamentals because there is no way you can compete with algorithmic traders and data analysis experts in the short term with weak ass technical analysis, it will be no better than a random walk for you. If you are interested in technical analysis I'd suggest learning AI in Computer Science and Economics/Statistics and working for a Hedge Fund or something.
>>1041375 I prefer the Donchian channel. Bollinger bands move too much, balloon out weirdly and so on. The Donchian channel is more like an upper and lower limit (average), the way you'd expect BBs to behave.
Pic is just googled (name is misspelled even), pay no mind to the buy/sell signal stuff, I just use it to get a better idea of levels where price may do something (it's easier to identify with the channel there).
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