China markets now closed for remainder of session after CSI300 falls 7% after 15-minute trading halt.
What does this mean?
Market will be extremely red all day. $DJI already down pre market, as are other Indexes.
If you have any market orders, close out of them. It'll be a fire sale today.
means the chinese government just liquidated some of the position they had put on buying a bunch of stocks to "stabilize" the market in august. if they got more to sell in the near term i guarantee some chinese crooks already know about it and will be sending china lower. in the mean time american firms remain generally short china and will chalk this one up as a win.
really, what it means is that people weren't buying at certain levels, leaving people to believe they are holding too much risk, and then the shorts start getting loaded on. then a short squeeze will happen. kinda like a bull trap
why do Iranian/Saudi relations spook China? Less arabs liking each other means less collusion in oil market which makes for lower oil and a happy chinese economy no?
i don't see a short squeeze happening in china, i mean maybe but didn't they stop everyone from shorting stuff, so who's gonna get squeezed? i thought china was going to rip up again like it did in late 2014/early 2015 but that doesn't appear to be on the menu
there's a lot of pipeline control that russia and america are heavily invested in, both which affect china
think about it: if people were panic selling because they saw a certain price not being traded, who are these people selling to? for the people being sold to, why are they buying lower and lower prices?
for people shorting, who are they borrowing stock from and selling it to?
>who are they selling to
>why are they buying lower and lower prices
because they're bullish and are getting a better and better deal
>who are they borrowing from and selling to
they're borrowing from people already long the stock and selling to people initiating new longs. so what?
i just don't really get what your point is, you think china got spooked on some arab news, fine. but then you think we rip higher because shorts are squeezed? again do you even know general chinese short interest on their homeland stocks (i don't), but i'm pretty sure they made it illegal.
you borrow stock through a clearning house. that clearing house has stock from people just being long their stock in their account. could be a market maker (though equity market makers don't usually hold overnight positions), could be a hedge fund, could just be some jo schmo.
Again i dont know enough about the chinese financial system to verify thats how they do it (but i'd guess it's the same/similar).
people would be selling into people who are trying to increase their long position or to close out their short position.
the lower price goes, the more incentive people have to cover their shorts to realize profits.
people shorting the stock are borrowing it from the people who just covered their shorts. these people are selling their borrowed stock to the people they just borrowed stock from.
>again assuming you can short chinese stocks on the mainland
ok whatever, i get your point but it's kind of meaningless
yeah... no... that's true, and oil ripping back up would be pretty shitty for china while they're devaluing their currency. i'm just so used to thinking oil up means expected strong demand and thus a healthy chinese economy, we could be kind of shifting gears on that relationship here.
i hadn't read about that yet truthfully and do think it was material for china's move today (though i doubt america will give too much of a fuck, we want to watch that region burn so we can swoop in and have it for ourselves)
Most of the S&P main stocks not only have factories in china, but are now selling their products and services in China.
When China loses money, China stops buying American company products. When Chinese companies lose value, they reduce staff. When China's middle class loses their investments, they don't jump to American stocks.
You're gonna see a selloff tomorrow and some stops are gonna trigger. When those stops are hit, the falling happens faster.
Last days of the old year and first days of the new year are when people and institutions do tax trades. Reading too much into market movements during this time is pretty retarded.
But this is /biz/ ... so bring out the memes. More memes, more memes, more memes.
i mean first off i don't doubt we're down tomorrow, futures are already down 1%. august-like vertical sell-off though? maybe... i dunno. i don't trade on a horizon where one day makes too much of a difference so if you're betting on it tomorrow godspeed. i would expect there to be a lot of other sharks in the water trying to sell US stocks down so it could be herky jerky like we've been the past two weeks (just sayin' be careful anon).
normally i'd agree with you but china doesn't have the same rules or calendar and they're the main party in question here. shanghai down 7% is a bit odd, even if it's before our first trading day of the year.
What happened in August was awful. I am going to bet we go at least to 1980 and I really hope not much more.
I'm actually neutral into jan but I could use a reason to go short.
Just what happens when China or Japan drop is shorts hit and there are some major pain points in the week.
Pic related. I'm pretty much at 0 for the market.
What happened in August was only because of stops triggering. It was awful because lots of people lost money from thinking that there was some system in place to protect them and it ended up making them lose more.
It's why nasdaq is killing stops.
$26/day, I just rolled to feb contracts. Someday I'll get to $2600/day.
that stops shit is bullshit, all the ETF shit too. we fell like a fucking rock because everyone knows FV for the S&P is like 1200, just a matter of when the show stops and we head on down there. People, and a lot of smart people mind you, thought August was that time.
>China stops buying American company products
Apple, then, if that. Due to China's currency manipulations American products are confined to the luxury market. The Chinese luxury goods market already took the biggest hits its going to take for awhile over the anti-corruption campaign.
Expect the rats to jump the ship, though.
> When Chinese companies lose value, they reduce staff.
Implying Manager Li knows the first thing about market principles or supply/demand. This never happens, the factories just go belly-up when they can't move their over-produced goods and the banks get another default. Layoffs don't happen, closures do. There's a difference.
>China's middle class loses their investments
Good thing it's not in the stock market then. Wait for real estate to go belly-up.
>They don't jump to American stocks
They can't, few companies can even afford the cost of an outbound investments lawyer in the CCP. They would if they could, in a heartbeat, and those that can probably will.
The market might be stupid, but it is efficient. 1200 is a big jump from 1900.
I don't know what your hate is for etfs, but how short are you? This isn't some big short type of scenario, no one is completely betting on the market collapsing.
What's your portfolio looking like?
i just don't see a reason why shiller pe's shouldn't trend down to 15 or below at some point. yeah, we now know about that measure and watch it closely so it's going to be less reliable, but not that many people are actually watching it right now. I have no problem riding the wave up, you just gotta know you're riding a timebomb.
Apple, Mcdonalds, intel, yum, cat, nike, lulu, anf, wynn, well, you can just search that yourself. China has the largest growing middle class in the world and they want "american luxury". If anything impacts their spending power, the speculators in the stock market drop those stocks. I wouldn't say the S&P is highly correlated to ASHR, but they both fall together.
Manager Li may not get it, but chairman Xu knows that they are better off not making more product if the supplier of material b is going out of business because of investment values. Factories will change hands, some will close if this stuff is prolonged.
The middle class loves their stock investments. They love them so much, they are trading on margin without knowing the impacts. Real estate is no exception.
They can definitely jump on American stocks. Every brokerage in China wants to offer American liquidity. We just can't trade their factories.
>i just don't see a reason why
The market doesn't give a fuck what you think should happen, nor what you feel is right, nor what you believe is fair or reasonable. Stop being an clueless fuckwit.
kek. i think china will figure out how to lay people off through a period of slowly declining nominal revenues.
does china real estate ever go belly-up? those fuckers will just keep havin' kids.
>10k a day
See, we were trying to have a nice discussion on the markets and then you try talking about things that just aren't true.
Do you know what that would imply if you had a portfolio with $10,000 theta decay? You have to be trading with an account in the 7-8 figures and using all of the buying power.
/biz/ attracts all kinds.
What I said is that the markets don't care "what you believe is fair or reasonable." Important distinction, you deluded retard.
You're obviously desperate to get attention here, as evidenced by your pathetic roleplaying. But don't misquote people in a transparent attempt to retrench from your extremely unreliable opinions. We can already see that you're a lying crackpot. No need to punctuate the point further.
I know Chinese "middle class". Luxury for them is Forever 21. They really aren't there yet, and neither are American products. Also Wynn was fucked over the rules I just mentioned. Macau has been suffering badly all year.
That's not to say the luxury goods market isn't "big", China's upper class is enormous. But, like I said earlier, they've already been hit.They might keep getting hit, but it won't be a big drop-off.
Secondly companies don't "own" factories in the way you think of in China. Many larger companies and SOEs source components from a lot of little factories that are run by small businessmen who build first, sell later. Not to mention the forced labor factories. Chairman Xu might be a reasonable man, but he isn't really in charge in many cases. And don't get me started on the PRC education system when it comes to economics.
Thirdly, the overwhelming majority of middle class investments are still real estate. Some retirees did speculate, but it was really a lot of naive people following party sloganeering on the market. That's what created the first bubble. And yes, real estate should be fucked, but the government knows the information I just typed up. They know precisely how fucked they'd be if they let the real estate market go.
And finally, no, there are a shit-ton of rules to outbound investments. Some can make the jump, but the middle-class speculator can't. That's an HK site you linked, not a mainland site. I guess I should have clarified that I'm talking about the PRC proper, not a territory with different investment rules.
And even in HK they still have to get a form w/ bureaucratic approval. See: http://www.htisec.com/en/cs/form/us_points_to_note.pdf
Depends on whether China can become economically independent. The leaders are torn. On the one hand: an export-based economy has inherent weakness. It's not controllable in the way the party would like and 2008 really woke them up to that. On the other hand: to rebalance to a domestic economy they would need to accept a higher unemployment rate. This was something the party said it was ok with for awhile and then the Umbrella Revolution in HK changed their minds.
For now, their lack of strong ag is keeping them export-oriented. But part of the big urbanization push is a transition to modern ag technology and techniques. Not to mention all of the projects in Africa.
So, in short, maybe. They are terrified of unemployed or starving people. I think maybe the next five year plan will be the transitional one, but that won't be for another five years. Ten years, at the soonest, assuming some disruption doesn't know them off course.
This is China reacting to the weekend news. Saudi Arabia and Iran have now gone "hot" in their conflict. They've been fighting proxy wars for the past five years and it was bound for their heads to bump. Between them they control a large portion of the oil market. This will send oil prices into a plunge in a few hours. The people profiting are the shorters.
I'll admit, I do not know all of the proceedures, but I assume much like NYC and Chicago account for most of the financial trading in the United States, HK and Shanghai accounts for most of the trading in China.
So if the average Chinese investor doesn't have access or major paper roadblocks, then I concede on that statement. I can accept that most Chinese middle class are putting their money into real estate, or other venture aspects.
I have to figure many of them are getting involved in mutual funds, hedge funds and what not and those have access. I just can't believe such a booming country isn't finding a nice way to waste their money.
If your tinfoil hat is on, you can say that the same thing happened to england/America in the 50s.
>weak manufacturing data.
Never mind this China shitting the bed. The CCCP has been holding the stock market in a freeze, since the August rapefest. They're unraveling those measures and, well, the measures from the looks of it might fail. This will global effects. Singapore reported a weaker Q3 and they're the best indicator for Asian economic health. Their ports handle a lot of shipping traffic and those numbers down. Globally, shipping, trains, and air fright have been down for the past year. This is a sign of impending global recession.
A global recession has been on every radar. This isn't OMGERHERD END OF THE WORLD depression. This is a common recession which pops up every decade. CAT stocks are down and they have very few orders. This is a good indicator construction is grinding to a halt. Logistics of goods is the best indicator of economic health.
I think that the commies finally have been forced to pick up the bill.
I've heard that someone did an analysis of how low the absolute minimum cost for manufacturing one chainsaw is, taking the costs of raw material into consideration.
Let's say that the minimum cost is X coins. Now, the commies manages to manufacture chainsaws for X-1 coins, and that's an impossibility. Either they have some kind of secret stash of raw materials or they are cooking the books. Maybe the -1 is slave labor. Maybe it's soldiers.
And this system can't last.
>can't spell to "Bilderberg"
>think that they have any clout whatsoever
Get lost, /pol/!
>tfw /biz/ will lose more money than the avg /pol/ trader because they didn't believe in the memes
These faggots on /biz/ are idiots. They get all butthurt if you talk about buying puts on overpriced stocks like NIKE. These ignorant niggers think buying high is the thing to do. Meanwhile, Natural Gas and Platinum are undervalued and these fags don't even mention it. /biz/ is mostly asshats that lose money.
US controls oil market
>China market crashing
US market at full steam with rising interest rates
What the fuck is up with this world?
This shit is not predictable at all.
time to pull out my wallet and start buying when the niggers sell out. made 30% since the last one in august.
Stop being fucking stupid amateurs, holy shit. Get your shit together, biz. The stock market is not a place for kids, it's made for cold blooded individuals who read what the market is saying despite the fear and greed.
>Where as the piss is the traded security, being both caught on the low and offloaded on the high.
Alright, you got me.
The chart I posted shows a clear uptrend. I was long AAPL 5 minutes in, despite all the panic people were spreading around about a global crash.
Daytrading aside, what is so hard about diversifying your money in 12 different companies and following quarterly releases? In the long term, good companies go up. Stop worrying about impeding crashes and doom, stop reading and watching news.
Yes, consider looking at USO, XLE or XOP.
USO is an ETF that is based purely on west texas /cl futures.
XLE is the energy sector ETFs based on the largest energy producers and sellers, Exxon, Chevron etc.
XOP is the Explorers and Etf, this tracks how the drillers and pipeline companies are doing. Major holdings are SeaDrill, Haliburton and Transocean.
Different ways to play the market based on which sector you care more about.
Go fuck yourself.
Forecasts and dice rolling are no different.
How can you forecast anything like that? Political tensions involving the middle east change on a daily basis.
Such forecasts are useless.
KEKEKE anon, you dumbwit /biz ain't for investors, just as /sp ain't for athletes. it is a retard backwater fuckhouse for idiots to spit finance memes and 'purdy' words they picked up on marketwatch(dt)com
Iranian oil is about to flood the market and OPEC told the US to go fuck itself. The Chinese supercycle is done (as OP attests to), and current surplus will take a year to eliminate as is.
Or do you have a stronger basis for saying that it "looks like crude is basically bottomed out"?
I can't find a single place in the internet where people are serious about making money in a professional way. Apart from /biz/ it's either Elitetrader and its cesspool of negativity coupled with idiots in the search of the Holy Grail or Reddit with "all in Vanguard" faggots or wallstreetbets.
Fuck this shit.
Yeah right, I only just noticed that you didn't make the first post. With that said, you're not offering a more plausible basis for speculation. If forecasting can't be accurate then the only thing you can argue with is muh gut--and why should that be trusted for predictions one way or the other?
>Saudi Arabia and Iran could initiate a serious conflict.
Yes, but that's not likely. They've cut off diplomatic ties before (during the Iran-Iraq War, no less).
Also that's forecasting, you realize?
reddit's right, you know. actual rich guys go there (with like, 50k, 100k in stocks and more). guys that make thousands a year in just dividends. and they'll never tell you "all in vanguard" unless you have literally 0 knowledge of economics/finance
I have one forecasting system and it's the result of actions from the market participants: technical analysis. The market, at any moment, will either be trending up, down or in a range in front of me. Whenever oil is trending UP, I'M LONG. I prefer high probability over picking the precise bottom.
China changed laws considering HFT in Shenzen and Shanghai, those rules will take effect 2017-2018. Long positions did not take the news well.
that's pretty good one. i'll have to start using it whenever somebody asks what is going on with commodities
Not sure why you care as much as you do. I'm surly not understanding why an individual that day-trades Apple is belittling himself by degrading those to prove a point that has a lack of sense, credibility, and factual evidence.
I can happily say that I've earned 2.1% today as the market fell, as I've been calling that for awhile now. Personally, I'd rather be the one shorting the market and focusing on the falls, than the highs, as if 08 has anything to prove it's that everyone else is doing just that.
"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion…We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time." 4
I'm a degenerate gambler that is addicted to leveraged ETFs.
Reddit.com/investing says all in Vanguard
Which subs do those rich people go on?
Wallstreetbets is like /biz/ except doubly as annoying. I did join the slack group on there though and those guys seem to be fuckin studs. Most of my questions go unanswered though unless I specifically mention one of the admins.
So which subs should I visit? I'm still in college but I have a statefarm Ira that I plan to move to Vanguard within the next 3 months. I'm getting a master's in electrical engineering and I want to be wealthy one day so I really want to learn investing/economics/trading to help me get there.
That's the thing anon. At the end of the day you can only listen to yourself. That's the beauty of it, it's allllll you, good or bad. I skim this, wsb, corner of berkshire and fairfax, bloomberg, cnbc, reuters, yahoo finance, zacks, bookmarked blogs etc etc. All of it. Hell I even look at stocktwits even though its moronic, but it doesn't matter cause I'm not looking for opinions or random advice on what to buy. I'm reading sentiment. You know? What is everybody up to? Once you get good at tracking that, the market gets a LOT easier to follow.
This is the most Chistian thing I've ever read in my entire life.
>When we're doing beating Competition A and Competition B, Competition C will strike, but when we beat them too our main enemy will show up. Man, we're so tired from all this winning. Vote Trump.
There has been so fucking many foretelling by /pol/ that it's outrageous.
There was one on September and it was a failure. Another October. These foretelling are getting out of hand.
I understand why "/pol/ is never wrong" meme comes from. They tell so many wrong prediction, SOME of them actually come true that those are counted. The failed predictions are just swiped out of the rug.
The ones that come true get posted to shit like reddit and picked up by some of those Facebook conspiracy news sites. Most of the people who see them don't actually go to /pol/
People like us who pop over there occasionally realize that 95% of the shit they spew on that board is edgy retarded nonsense