>Japan is in a recession
How will this affect out animu?
They lift all bans such as incest and lewd loli to appeal to wider audiences and encourage spending.
I can dream
less quality and more QUALITY
BDs will contain fewer episodes (from 3 to 2) and wont fix so much the animation
More 15min or less shows will be airing too
More 3D CG anime will be done too
Japan has been alternating between recession and stagnation for around twenty years so probably not much at all
>Japan’s economy shrank 7.1% in the April-June quarter
>sales tax hike
Who ever could have predicted this?
Hey, the last time Japan got into a big war, the anime and manga that followed were amazing. Maybe Japanese artists just need a little fascism to rebel against to perform at their peak.
>Shrank 7% in one quarter
/a/ - Macroeconomics
They already did, according to the article. They might delay (not cancel!) a second one.
I wonder how much more expensive everything has become, I'm pretty sure anime & manga sales have suffered because of it. Food > little girl cartoons, so my guess is they just pirate more anime now.
It was a good run.
Honestly I think the latter point would help a bunch; right now there's so much work there's little play, so spending on nice things is fuck all.
But then at the same time the cost of living is so absurdly high, it's not like that'd be a solution in of itself.
It doesn't really hurt the anime industry any.
>Abe continues raising sales tax, further crippling consumption
>otaku buy anime anyway because muh collections
And the industry keeps on chugging.
Worst case scenario we see a minor scaling back in production.
Except it does, because globalization happens and extending to western market.
They're cutting out the more niche part of the industry, just like they already abandoned lolicon anime.
Just stop censoring porn. People can handle it.
A bubble popped in the 90s and everyone else caught up
Globalization and China's rise have been major external factors, while their soul-crushing self-destructive culture of uniformity is a major internal factor
Many young people in Japan have never known anything different than the "current" decades of virtually standing still and just don't give a shit anymore
>Otakus are the bastard offspring of the economical recession.
You merely adopted the unemployment. I was born in it, molded by it.
>going to Japan in a few months
>mfw incoming exchange rate
In 1981, it was 340JPY to 1 USD. In other words, everything would cost 3x what it does not if you're buying it from Japan.
But now that they're economy is shit it's 1/3 what is used to be ~100 JPY to 1 USD.
I really feel bad for Japan. I admired Japan even before watching anime. I remember how my grandpa taught me about the Japanese miracle.
>You'll never get to experience the bubble era.
>Japan was in a recession in the 1980s
What the fuck am I reading
>What the fuck am I reading
Clearly, the more of one currency is needed to exchange to another, the better country 1 is doing compared to country 2. That is why Zimbabwe is a global economic powerhouse!
I live in Canada my friend
>the angst and depression following war, political unrest, and economic upheaval results in more anime with actual messages instead of an endless parade of moeshit, pandering, and grinding franchises into the ground
it's the best thing that could happen to anime at this point
>Japan cannot go to war
>North Korea would be committing suicide on the spot if it went to war and couldn't escape South Korea
>China has 0 projection force and would have to go through both the SKN, US Navy, Royal Navy, and Japan's Navy to go anywhere by sea, or cut through two of the largest countries with the most heavily equipped militaries on the entire continent to get to anywhere by land
>nobody can transport any nuclear payloads due to the US Navy and AEGIS
>nobody can fire any nuclear missiles due to satellite defense
>any country which went to full scale warfare right now would be committing irrecoverable economic and political suicide
>Russia would swoop in on any part of Asia that went on the offensive just for the excuse to take all of their resources
That war can impend all it wants but it won't happen.
>What the fuck am I reading
I don't see the problem, I checked Wolfram Alpha and those are accurate exchange rates.
In the 1980's JPY bought USD more favorable than it does now?.
That would imply, indeed, that currency traders believe to be the USD more valuable relative to the JPY in the 80s, which directly implies that investors believe the countries dealing in USD are fiscally stronger than countries (Japan) trading in JPY.
>Otaku are recession proof. In fact in the 90's during the lost decade, otaku stuff (anime, games, manga, toys) was the one area of growth.
That's because the Otaku market basically can be thought of as a market in "Inferior Goods"*.
What I mean by this, is that as the economy worsens, more men end up migrating into the realm of 2D. Less Riaju, more Otaku.
*In the economic sense -- not necessarily the quality sense as 2D > 3D IMHO.
Most of what I've seen is easily in the "acceptable, but not preferred" area for me. It looks like anime, but it doesn't move the way hand drawn anime moves, if that makes sense.
I see it similar to early animatronics, before they really got them down pat; they just look unnatural compared to what we're use to.
Nothing anusual, any economy tends to contract the months following a big tax hike. What they need to do is ensure that the extra income from this tax eventually reaches people so as to incentivate consmuption.
They also need to keep the damn inflation at 2% at least.
That isn't full scale warfare no matter how much the media drums it up to be. It's the equivalent of having Iron Man go kill a gang of Mexicans and I guarantee you almost 80% of the death toll on America's side in any recent war was grossly exaggerated and misrepresented to gain sympathy from dumb civilians who think there's an ounce of truth about what they've seen about the military from anywhere but the military. We barely even have troops in the middle east anymore for anything but occupying and have just resorted to bombing the place, yet for some reason we still get sympathy reports about USAF Airmen (?) who were for some reason on a patrol in enemy territory and got their leg blown off. Kind of weird a branch with no infantry would be on ground patrol in a hot zone.
Imagine this, you have 10,000 burgerbucks. You want to convert this money into Yen so you can go over to Japan and have a good time. If the exchange rate of usd to yen was 1 usd to 100 yen, then you would be able to convert your money into 1,000,000 yen. Pretty good, right?
Now lets say Japan's economy is doing poorly, knowing this, less people are going to want yen, its value against the dollar becomes weaker. Right down the exchange rate is 1 dollar to ~116 yen. That means with 10,000 burgerbucks, you can convert that into 1,160,000 yen. You now have an extra 160,000 yen to spend on your dumb weeaboo shit.
The weaker the value of the yen is, the more yen you can get while exchanging another currency for yen.
Your understanding is exactly the opposite of the truth. I can only assume this is because you're legitimately retarded. If it took 340 yen to make one dollar in the '80s and it only takes 100 now, that means the yen is STRONGER. Again, you are retarded
>That's because the Otaku market basically can be thought of as a market in "Inferior Goods"
Just as well
>people worrying about this
Japan's population is too high for it's land thanks to booming economies which always lead to baby booms
Same thing is happening in a lot of countries, people on the bottom are gonna die and that's the simple fact. We'll likely have a few large conflicts (not WW3 scale) which will clear a big chunk of the population's plebs
The worst thing Japan could do is following the Jude advice and importing more people in, that will only exacerbate the problem and make everyone suffer more. Which is what the Jude likes to see, lower value of human labor = more profit
I'm not him but were there any really good animated 3D CG series (not just elements but all episode 3dcg animated)? Things like Sidonia or Ronia have good plot but God knows how eye cancerous they were.
I mean, there's not much of a reason to keep it anyway. People will buy more porn, and why bother censoring violent orc rape anyway?
That's assuming prices don't rise to meet the new standard though. In some situations it can mean yeah while 1 dollar = 100 yen and a burger costs lets say 500 yen, then after inflation 1 = 116 yen but now the burger costs 525 yen when is usually the case when inflation like that happens, you're actually losing money from their economy's perspective.
It's incredibly easy for me to get over the stiffness of the animation and appreciate the benefits that 3DCG brings, in Knights of Sidonia for example, the sound design was absolutely stellar, as was the animation and details in the combat scenes, unfortunately because animation is a lengthy process all the time/resources gets put into the fight scenes and the character interaction is almost completely neglected, hopefully in future people can get over it and studios can start investing into 3DCG some more until it gets to the point where it's indistinguishable.
>Knights of Sidonia
I tried three times to watch this, and I just absolutely couldn't; the animation was just far too awful for me to keep giving a shit about the great story people always talk about.
Ins some years, Japan won't have an industry for making sentient AI waifus or at best it'll make crappy AI waifus while S Korea make better, cheaper waifus and sell them around the globe
I'm fairly new to macroeconomics so correct me if I'm wrong, but usually when an economy is doing poorly, it has to do with either inflation or unemployment (or a mixture of both). If the problem is inflation, then yeah like you said, the price of goods will rise and you won't be much better off with the exchange rates vs purchasing power. If the economic downturn is related to unemployment, then it is likely that you will get a favorable exchange rate and purchasing power.
This is more fun than discussing anime.
You have to remember that the exchange rate is not the only thing that influences inflation.
If none of the japs are buying those fucking burgers then there the prices go down
No matter what else happens, the Japanese waifu industry will never die.
>more CG Idols
I can get behind that.
I thought Japan's economy has been in the shit since the 90s?
If Japan would just let its fucking sunset industries die they would be out of this shithole, but no, they have to keep their precious 70-year old grandmas farming rice and making textiles employed
It's just a slightly different version of shit.
They stabilized and perched themselves up a bit for a while, but it was a shoddy patchwork job and it collapsed beneath their feet and now they're going back to where they were.
>nobody can fire any nuclear missiles due to satellite defense
When did we get Star Wars running?
>1981: 340 JPY = 1 USD
>2014: 117 JPY = 1 USD
Looking purely at the numbers, the yen is currently worth about 3x as much relative to the dollar as it was in 1981
But this is a massively oversimplified way of looking at things, and assumes that things like the real value of both currencies and various prices of goods and cost of living has remained static.
Using the CPI:
>1981 JPY = 1.25x 2011 JPY
>1981 USD = 2.5x 2011 USD
The exchange rates don't determine value, it's very much the other way around
All those old people might as well be doing something
>All those old people might as well be doing something
Except that their "something" is being subsidized by MITI, preventing actually competitive foreign markets taking their place
It has. It was just mostly stagnation rather than full-on depression, and now it's
I guess that the problem with being the one that asks to lift the porn restrictions is that you will always be known as "the porn guy". Sure, otakus would love you, probably make you a shrine or something, but for the rest of the citizens, that's shamefur dispray.
/pol/ taught me that the only way to fix an economy is to throw the lower-class under the bus. In the end this will benefit them too, though.
Though, I'm hoping the apocalypse will just happen already.
Fuck it, desparate times call for desparate measures. If you made work hours shorter, people wouldn't mind the whole porn thing anyway.
My aunt bought a LG television because she watch K-dramas. In fact, she bought many Korean stuff because she thinks Korean product are prettier and better than Japanese products.
Generally things like entertainment and alcohol don't feel the recession as much.
infact the opposite tends to be true people tend to put more money into escapism than they normally would.
The Obama administration actually supports Abe changing the constitution because of how much it would save in US defense spending in the region, and China and Korea being fucking tumblr-tier easily triggered babies shouldn't be a reason to keep from moving to the same level of defense preparedness as every other nation in the entire world
>China has 0 projection force
You're forgetting Russia has allied with china m8
Nips back then were very motivated in every activity because they were working for rebuilding the nation. Now they don't give a shit about anything, especially the people working on the animation industry
I wish Japan would turn to Russia instead of the US as an ally, if Japan could get Russia disentangled from China and get Putinmacht on their side, they could become an actually intimidating power taken seriously assuming >>117073129 happens instead of being the US's little sister
People don't care about where a product comes from, no matter what they want you to believe. I general, if two products are of comparable quality, people will always choose the cheaper one.
The reason japan has been doing poorly on the international market when it comes to technology is that, among other things, their currency has been awfully uncompetitive. They still dominate the auto industry because of their know-how, but the yen hasn't helped.
I know how to be happy with nothing too. So even if all the anime is QUALITY and low-budget I will be happy.
It's true, otaku market is the shadow market, that does good in economic crisis. Now all our anime will become high-budget and awesome.
They haven't. They're TRYING to ally with China, so that they aren't quite so dependent on Eurobux if/when more sanctions come down, but China has been moving very carefully when it comes to Russia.
Why would you want Russia to be more powerful, Russia is a bully, do you support bullying?
They aren't trying to increase consumption though, that will naturally happen when they manage to sustain a decent inflation rate. What they are trying to do is what they should have done two decades ago, pay their public debt and stop financing their expenditure with bonds.
Not really. After the war Japan was in ruins in all likelihood would have become a failed state had not the Korean war kicked off a demand for industrial goods and ensured a continued U.S. interest in the region.
So in a sense Japan can only win if Korea loses.
They are trying to increase consumption! That's part of the point in trying to raise the inflation rate. More dollars can't chase the same amount of goods if no one's chasing goods in the first place
Otaku shit isn't really an inferior good. It's a luxury. There is no real replacement for it and demand doesn't fall with consumer income, especially when you look at how pricey some of the shit is. NEETs aren't the only people who collect plastic crap there
What am I reading?
They are trying to raise the inflation rate because deflation absolutely destroys an economy and causes, among other things, lower consumption of normal and luxury goods despite increasing incomes. Consumption will reach a normal level when the economy becomes healthy.
One of japan's big problem was financing their gigantic public expenditure with public debt. That had to stop, it's not something you normally do as it's not sustainable.
Having a sale tax of 5% was extremely unrealistic for a country with that kind of infrastructure. People never like taxes, but they exist for a reason.
Japan stuck in a liquidity trap for over a decade because
>Hurr economy not werking, rets raisu sares tax because muh baranced budgettu
>Riquidity Trapp? Wuts dat? Quantitivu easing and NEGATIVE Ihnturhest raits Wirr wurk! Ahnd morr sares tax! Good forr rainy day
The nominal growth of Japan's public debt is actually pretty normal for a developed country. Low real growth and especially the lack of inflation are the reason Japan's denbtz are so high
There are so many misinformed posts in this thread...
Japan has been in 4 technical recessions in the past 7 years. 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2014.
4 periods of back-to-back quarters of negative growth over the past 7 years.
The main problem in Japan is the deflation trap that they've been stuck in for 20 years. Abe's sales tax hike caused this technical recession, but the main thing is that Japan has basically been hovering in and out of recession for 7 years...
Japan has almost as many quarters of negative growth as positive growth since 2008. They are pretty much an example of an economy treading water...
Japan's problem is that consumers have become conditioned to falling prices over the past 20 years.
Deflation = falling prices. It's when consumers believe that prices will be lower in the future, so they reduce current demand for goods/services in favor of future demand for goods/services.
The problem is, it generally results in a shrinking economy, and given that wages are sticky, it creates all sorts of bad effects that generally signal a stagnating economy.
A sales tax hike of 3% (from 5% to 8%) when consumers are already conditioned against consumption is just going to cause more demand contraction...
Japan's focus on keeping their government budget balanced, meant dragging their economy into recession after recession with horrendous deflation, causing interest rates to be stuck at zero (liquitidy trap) while the deflation makes real interest rates high. Expansionary monetary policy a la quantitative easing wont do shit in this stage, yet for some dumbfuck reason, the government has focused on monetary expansion and contractionary fiscal policy (rises in taxes)
Also, for even more laughs, they've still targeted inflation at fucking 2%
It should have been done after stabilizing the economy and reaching a decent and sustained inflation rate, but that would have probably taken more than one administrative period so fuck it.
Still, it's not the internal market that they are worrying about at this point.
What merch do you fuckers buy when you go to a con/are in Japan?
>inb4 buying merch at a con
>inb4 not answering my question
Most Japanese government debt is purchased by pig-ignorant Japanese people who can't think of anything better to invest in, and the rest by the Bank of Japan. There is no risk of default whatsoever. Worst (best?) case scenario is that they would start monetizing it, which might finally get them some inflation
Most of Japan's debt is domestic, so it really isn't that bad. And the debt's only going to get worse if they keep the economy in the shitter. Fewer people employed = fewer tax receipts and greater spending on benefits
Well, the problem is that the deflation trap is a primary reason why the debt problem has gotten so out of hand.
Inflation (through nominal GDP growth) is a major reason why Debt-to-GDP ratios look a lot better in other countries like US/UK compared to say Japan.
If Japan doesn't fix their deflation problem, they'll never solve their debt problem.
It sounds like a bit of chicken-and-egg semantics, but you're best off not worrying as much about debt until you're sure you're out of the deflation trap.
One other thing to keep in mind, Japan's debt is almost entirely locally held (by Japanese institutions/people), unlike US national debt.
That means that Japan doesn't really have much of a downside from reducing its value by inflation more than actually trying to pay it down. It's worth keeping in mind that most debt reduction after WW2 was a result of inflation, not actual payments on the debts.
I have no idea why I have this thread open and keep coming back to read all it's updates.
God dammit, I didn't catch that one.
Maybe you're interested in economics.
On a related note, Rui-rui was a filthy communist, and doesn't belong in this thread.
>Even considering the possibility of there being any consideration of going outside.
This is what I don't fully understand, Abe started tanking the Yen to become more competitive internationally and generate inflation. But now he decides to raise sale tax which basically killed the internal market.
Why the fuck is he doing both things at the same time?
As far as Japan goes, it's not entirely that simple but the first thing is to fix deflation, and printing money while encouraging consumers to increase current consumption is the best scenario (by making them think future prices will be higher, i.e. develop inflation).
Japan needs a lot of economic restructuring too though... a lot of Japanese industries are inefficient due to local laws/regulations (agriculture in Japan is still much smaller scale than US for example because of the way they've insulated small farms in Japan from global trade).
A combination of developing inflation with encouraging economic modernization of inefficient industries is what Japan needs. Whether they actually have the stomach for it is anyone's guess.
TPP is the thing to watch as it pertains to making Japan more efficient. If they actually are willing to open more industries to international trade, it would help even if it causes short-term displacement...
I criticized your thought, not his action.
You got after him for his course of action already.
That's what doesn't make sense. There was a ton of argument against raising the sales tax before being sure that the seeds of inflation were solidly in place.
By not waiting, he's basically thrown Japan into its 4th recession in 7 years, and there was no reason to rush into this...
Japanese bond yields are extremely low, markets haven't been putting pressure on them to lower their debts at all yet... so they were way too early on the tax hike.
Yea that's probably it, all this is interesting, even if I some of the shit discussed flies completely past my head.
Hajime best CROWDS.
Political considerations, basically. He may call for new elections in light of the sales tax report, but as many of the seats are re-elected and/or hereditary, it's anyone's guess how much that will help.
Only if they can convince investors they're going to stick to it. Inflation brought by money being printed would hopefully encourage investment due to real interest rates rising as a consequence. The problem is that nobody has confidence in the Japanese government, because they've been so limpwristed with policies. Pretty much every event of quantitative easing is paired with a sales tax hike, as the government continues to be paranoid about inflation getting too high
Why don't we make our own economy? You guys seem smarter than the average politician.
Nature isn't giving bullies anything anon. People who don't stand up to them are. Seriously though, by increasing Russia's political influence we get closer and closer to Cold War 2; Nuclear Boogaloo. That's not good for anyone.
The worst part is that it's not like the sales tax increase was going to make a difference anyway, even if the economy had been fine. Japan's public debt is just too big for something that would raise so little revenue to make a dent
That's great, but did they have to do it right after dumping money into the economy causing the real salary of the population to drop? It was obviously going to cause a demand shock.
>Whether they actually have the stomach for it
The real question is whether the politicians have the stomach for it, and whether the voters will vote someone with a spine and economic sense (or at least the sense to listen to good advice). In fact, whether the voters can even manage, mathematically-speaking, to vote in enough members of the Diet to appoint a PM who knows his shit or will pay attention to someone who does is the real question.
Answer: they almost certainly can't. Going to have to wait until after Abenomics has utterly failed for a new course to be taken.
>always right, no matter what even when absolutely absurd
One of the worst characters ever.
One of the biggest problems Japan faces is that there's an elderly v. young element to all of this.
Japan's elderly have profited handsomely off of the deflation trap, and since Japan is one of the "oldest" countries on Earth, that constituency doesn't really care that the economy has hallowed out over the past 20 years because their spending power has been maintained into retirement, while their bonds/savings have maintained their value.
These things are as much a demographics problem as they are a political problem. This has turned into classic generational warfare.