>>44029381 I'm okay with this This will put pressure on Pakistani Islamic immigrants as well as Muslim separatists in China
They will either succeed and make billions while also quelling extremists or more likely... Pakistan's incompetence will result in the deaths of many Chinese and an increased terror activity in China now that extremists in both countries inevitably end up working together.
China wants to build a highway system (and in parallel with that, high speed rail and new oil/gas pipes) which spans the entirety of the Asian continent. India is the only possible exception, but I'm sure they'd rather connect to it in the long term as well.
Pakistan has been courting both USA and China for years. Pakistan gave up it's claim on the Chinese part of Kashmir in order to be more friendly with them in hopes of using the alliance to defeat India. Pakistan has also been using American military aid to resupply the forces in order to attack India.
Pakistan would ally itself with North and South Korea if it thinks they could help Pakistan bomb Delhi.
>>44031977 >the entirety of the Asian continent I don't think even the chinese have that kind of money. That would take trillions of dollars. Pakistan alone cost them over 40 bil, right? Do they already have a deal with Russia and the stans?
>>44032002 I honestly don't like Pakistan. Their only export is refugees and terrorists, and they don't have any oil unlike the other ME countries.
I have a feeling with the new Modi government and new worries over China is going to lead to better India/US relations when the new President comes to power in 2016. India already hates muslims and have good relations with Israel apparently, so adding them to our sphere of influence shouldn't be that hard.
>>44032145 It's already been confirmed that the Pakistani government has been aiding terrorist groups that focus on attacking India, however no one is willing to get involved since it is a purely regional conflict. America/NATO/Israel would have nothing to gain by picking a side in that fight.
>>44032325 They are the biggest sponsors of the Taliban in the region and actively funded Al Queda and protected their leader Osama for many years. Just like with Saudi Arabia though we have taken a soft approach towards dealing with them and are making the mistake of trying appeasement, because we are tired of all these wars in that fucked up region of the world.
>>44029381 >The projects will give China direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond.****** ******Through the fucking Himalayas Seems like a waste for a route that is far from ideal. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that it would just be faster to ship something from hong kong.
>That would take trillions of dollars. And? National vision in Beijing is not subject to four-year election cycles. For all of its (deep) flaws, the Chinese government is probably the greatest organizing force the world has ever seen. Money is not an issue, nor is the time necessary to accumulate it; countervailing geostrategic tides (or their absence) will determine whether or not China succeeds at economically and politically unifying Asia under its aegis.
As for what's already on the agenda, well, the revitalization of the overland and maritime Silk Road routes is a serious project. You can find reading material easily enough if you're interested. I believe I've heard tentative rumblings about a high-speed rail link between Moscow and Beijing, and we know they've already got that $400 billion pipeline deal going (plus plans for other pipes linking western China to Iran). Pic related lays out possible routes for high-speed rail going from southern China to Singapore (see the link below as well).
>What the hell is Beijing thinking? Consider the other side of the coin, which is that Pakistan is giving China easier access to its territory, thereby possibly facilitating future Chinese military intervention in Pakistan.
>>44032519 Rapprochement rarely takes such large steps all at once. The reestablishment of diplomacy between the countries removes the religious caste's ability to blame all their failures on the US and the West. Iran wants to liberalize but can't do it all at once. It will be a gradual process, the first step of which is to engage in trade and diplomacy. Khamenei and his future replacements will start losing relevance and power until they're weak enough that turning them into ceremonial figureheads of a powerless institution will go mostly unnoticed.
>>44032585 >I believe I've heard tentative rumblings about a high-speed rail link between Moscow and Beijing First stage is a Moscow-Kazan link, construction will supposedly start in this year or next. China will be investing heavily.
>There is also a kind of a rail link between Beijing and Moscow Yeah, and it's 19th-century vintage. I'm talking about entirely new infrastructure.
Here we are: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-22/china-russia-plan-242-billion-rail-link-from-beijing-to-moscow >China will build a 7,000-kilometer (4,350-mile) high-speed rail link from Beijing to Moscow, at a cost of 1.5 trillion yuan ($242 billion), Beijing’s city government said on the social networking site Weibo.
Hopefully this works out and is beneficial to Pakistan Not a paki, but grew up there as a kid. The country has great potential and there are some brilliant people there, too bad the country is corrupt as fuck, and isnt taking a hard enough stance on the terrorists. Although that has changed a bit after the school shooting
>>44029381 This is suddenly news? This is been in the works for over 15 years. Chinese-Pakistani relations are incredibly close, and China has been wanting a warm water port close to East African coast since loosening economic conditions.
But that aside; while Pakistan is certainly nationalistic as fuck, the public there is not nearly as weary of China as it is of the US. And if Beijing keeps pouring tens of billions of dollars of infrastructure investment into the Pakistani economy, well... sentiments change.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will no doubt lubricate this process enormously, if China gets it working the way it wants it to (the way the US fears it will, incidentally).
>>44032859 Fair enough. However can China's economy handle all this expansion? The Chinese economic bubble is invariably going to burst like it has with all of the other nations that has been through this.
>>44032874 This is China we are talking about. If they are unhappy with Pakistan funding the rebels in Xiajing they can use the new infrastructure to easily invade Pakistan.
>>44032585 Vassal implies that they can easily be controlled. We tried before and failed. No fundamentalist Islamic state can be properly controlled and stabilized. The Paki government can't fully control their own borders let alone the dozens on militant groups operating in the country. Don't even get me started on the disconnect between the ISI intelligence organization, the military, and the civil government.
>>44031752 >>44031783 >China becomes pals with Pakistan Why are you people so fucking dense about the most rudimentary geopolitics outside of Europe and North America? Chinese-Pakistani relations are legendary, the Chinese have an almost big brother attitude to Pakistan. Go to a Chinese University - loads of Pakistanis studying.
Fuck me, this is ridiculous. How do you people not know about this? How do you not know about Chinese-Indian border conflicts?
>>44033042 China's economy has seen signs of it slowing down. This quarter they are expected to drop to 7% then drop next year down to 6-6.5%. The growth that came from fixed-assets has dried up. They need to rely more on consumption and services, which will lead to smaller growth rates. On the services side they are going to see big problems. Years of stealing international secrets and not respecting foreign IP or internet services is going to hamper their international growth in that sector.
>>44033128 Destroying Israel will not unite the ME, nor will it make us their allies. The region is fucked up thanks to a culture that worships an inherently violent and unpredictable religion, combined with years of ethnic squabble and foreign meddling.
To add to that their astronomic growth rates of 8-15% are effectively dead and will never return. 4-6% growth rates are what they should be expecting going forward. They won't surpass us until 2030 at the earliest.
>>44032585 Clearly you're more informed than I am, so I'll trust your judgement.
Jut one more thing: Wouldn't a pipeline going through the other stans (besides afghanistan) be a more sound investment? Turkmenistan, Uzbek, etc. are all far more stable than their neighbors to the south. Plus, the routes through those countries more closely mirror the old silk road.
Does China already have pipelines in place in that region?
>>44032619 Now that I think about it, the new connection to the Arabian sea would ease trade with the rich gulf states. It would certainly be more geographically convenient to ship goods from there through Pakistan than all the way through Southeast Asia. The only problem is Pakistan's political instability.
The chinks have run out of room to expand and their growth is quickly falling well below expectations, so they're doing what Japan did in the 80s and 90s before their collapse and investing in foreign projects to maintain some income and trade after their own economy melts down and is reduced by 50% or more; which will come soon,
China is screwed; their rich know this and have begun to flee or invest in the west or, if unable to do so, in China's neighbors, so they can keep a source of income once it takes ten trillion yuan to equal a peso.
>No fundamentalist Islamic state can be properly controlled and stabilized. Not by a power that is burdened (strategically) by an internally fragmented democratic government which aspires to complicated and often contradictory moral standards in international affairs. Not to mention is big on Christianity. China, on the other hand, doesn't care what kind of forces control Pakistan as long as they keep their Islamist spaghetti in their pockets. It will deal with anybody, which gives it much more latitude in projecting power locally.
Of course I'm sure the ISI is still terrible for Beijing to deal with, but you do what you have to do.
>Does China already have pipelines in place in that region? I believe so, but I think there's also plans for expansion. And yes, China is definitely intent on battling Russia for influence throughout central Asia.
>>44031739 >Pakistan's incompetence will result in the deaths of many Chinese and an increased terror activity in China now that extremists in both countries inevitably end up working together. sounds great!
>>44033397 You have to understand the the Chinese market is completely saturated in the fixed asset market. Real estate, factories, etc. are almost all overvalued and overabundant in the market. The only exception is military spending and infrastructure, their homegrown market can't take any more investment in the fixed-asset market, or the bubble will grow too big for them to control. They want to shift to more fluid assets and services like insurance, financial services, technology etc. but this also means lower growth rate and demands a higher educated population.
Japan faced a similar crisis in the 80s-90s, and they made the mistake of investing their capital into the also overvalued fixed asset market here in America, and other trophy purchases. When their technologies and services market fell behind their economy suffered, and all that investment money they poured into our assets devalued themselves. The Chinese are smarter than this though, and use the government to create lock-ins to domestic companies for Chinese services like search and e-commerce. Foreign investment money is also concentrated in FDIs for fluid assets like American bonds for our debt rather than fixed-assets. Their decline in growth rates won't be like that of Japan's.
>>44033371 >Turkmenistan, Uzbek, etc. are all far more stable than their neighbors to the south.
Turkmenistan would be a great place to build a railroad to Afghanistan. Develop cattle, sheep and grain farms in Turkmenistan and mineral resources in Afghanistan Deport Chinese Muslims and colonize with Han "managers", trade Chinese manufactures products for foodstuffs.
>>44033574 The ISI can go fuck themselves after orchestrating the Bhutto assassination. They exist only to train militant groups to fuck with India, who are now turning to domestic terrorism against them. They are now actively trying to subvert the military effort to eradicate the fundamentalists within their own borders. The entire government over there is gigantic circus.
>>44033462 I honestly agree with you in that regard. China is a much better country to deal with the ME and the fundamentalist groups. They operate more on pragmatism and won't be burdened by excessive morality and internal politics like we are. Their absolute control of the media and one party system puts them in a unique position to take very hardline foreign policy approaches and not worry about domestic opposition as much as we do. Not to mention they don't have to defend their relationship with Israel, who in many ways is not that much different than the other countries in the region, like we do.
>>44031752 if you didn't see that china needed to make moves to warm up relations with neighbors for the last few years then you are retarded. then again, im an investor, so i've learned how to forecast things.
>america's manufacturing base shows a slight recovery >china shits itself and wonders who will buy their cheap labor >china gets the idea that maybe countries like russia or india might want to buy up their cheap shit >or that they could end up becoming like america and buying cheaper labor from india, giving china a stronger grip on asia and ultimately russia while america becomes more self sustained
>>44034268 India is going to become the next cheap labor market, and probably get the same growth rate China had in the 90s-2010, for the next two decades, as they industrialize.
Chinese are going to transition to a consumption and services based economy that is less dependent on manufacturing, and as a result has less reliance on the American market, and much slower growth rates.
What will be interesting is who is going to warm up the most to India in the near future. America or China, it will be an interesting turning point if China and India form a duo alliance to dominate the rest of Asia and give America the cold shoulder, or if India will join the American sphere of influence and be used as a counter to Chinese aggression. Meanwhile, Russia is pretty much irrelevant, only meaningful as an energy provider and arms dealer. Their economy and growth rates are not enough to make them relevant in the 21st century, their era of being a world power has passed.
>Their absolute control of the media and one party system puts them in a unique position to take very hardline foreign policy approaches and not worry about domestic opposition as much as we do. Not to mention they don't have to defend their relationship with Israel, who in many ways is not that much different than the other countries in the region, like we do. Quite so. With that said, China could still run afoul of all sorts of bullshit to its west if it drinks too much of its own Kool-Aid. For example, its response to IS so far has basically been "let merrica handle it", which isn't indicative of a mature power at work.
>>44034602 India will never join China, way too much bad blood. India will most likely try to carve out it's own sphere of influence out of national pride, however it will find that China, Russia and Europe/America have already gotten there first.
>>44034623 Africa is just a resources and investment market. The Chinese are incredibly cash rich now and need to reinvest their money into a less competitive, higher investment potential market than their domestic one.
Africa is not a stable region though. The only way they are going to be able to protect their investments is through military intervention. They have invested a lot into the UN peacekeeper corps who they hope can keep the volatile, cash-rich regions stable enough to invest into, but I think they are severely underestimating the endemic problems in Africa. Proxy wars by PMCs, funded through Chinese investment groups and the Chinese government could become a genuine reality in Africa, setting it up to become the next global hot spot.
Foreign geopolitics hasn't been this interesting since the 60s, the next era of new Asian Power vs. Western Hegemony will be fascinating to watch.
>>44035059 People said the same about China, and then bam they opened up to us in the 70s during the years of Nixon and Deng Xiaoping.
They will of course maintain their own sphere of influence in South Asia, you can't be a true regional power without a sphere of influence.
Modi is making forrays into the West, and China is investing into Pakistan, so we are leaning into a scenario where we have a favorable relationship with the Indians and start taking a more hardline approach towards China. It is in our best interests to keep China and India at each others throats for as long as possible, we will lose all our control in the Asian region if they become allies, and start pressuring the Southeast Asia and ME regions of the globe heavily into joining their spheres of influence over our own.
2030 is when I am predicting the real power shift from east to west as China will overtake us by then and India will become the next industrial powerhouse and 3rd largest economy.
>>44035230 One step at a time. Right now it is too risky to start actively sending their own troops and hiring too many mercenary and PMC groups. The Chinese are trying as hard as they can to appear docile and unaggressive to the West. When they eventually surpass us, then they will reveal their true face and ambitions. Africa has an enormous amount of resources, the most in the world actually, but lack of security and stability to properly exploit it. He who controls Africa will control the largest natural resource market in the globe, China knows this and wants to be that leader.
>>44035550 Under their current growth rates it is expected to happen sometime between 2025-2030. The same time China will surpass the US as the world's largest economy. Your banter doesn't change the GDP growth rate numbers or the professional opinions of investors and bankers who are dumping billions into these developing markets.
>>44031683 I actually think it is a fuck-you to India.
Kashmir is a contested area to this day, and China is building a superhighway through Pakistan's administered area. Essentially meaning that if India ever tries to take that land, China will immediately have a pretext to become involved.
>>44035806 In terms of PPP, which is more based off of local purchasing power. That is not a good estimate of relative economic power. For example India would already be the 3rd largest economy in the world going by PPP.
The only one who is shitposting is you, as your clearly lack basic education on international markets and economies. Go back to a 'redpill on x' where someone of your capacity can fit right in.
>>44031833 the embargoes / sanctions of cuba and russia both reek of halfheartedness and insincerity and are still extremely far from completion. there's a pretty good chance both will fall apart or wind up being reversed
>>44036051 That would also be a pretext to invade if local Pakistani militants threat the Chinese investments. It will be an interesting to see whether or not Pakistan can keep their domestic terrorists in line and stop them from doing something monumentally stupid like support the Xianjing Islamic separatists. China is not the US, their foreign policy will be hard-handed and brutal, unlike the US where we just turned a blind eye to the relationship between the Taliban, Al Queda (including Osama), and the ISI+Pakistani government.
>>44032795 Are there any talks in Russia on whether the different Rail Gauge of Russian and Chinese railways will cause problems and additional costs for whoever decides to ship cargo across the railway system?
>>44036601 At this point, there is no purpose in me trying to explain the basics of how and why we measure things primarily in nominal GDP and why the size of foreign economies is not typically measured strictly in terms of real GDP, as you clearly do not have the mental capacity to comprehend it. I would suggest picking up a high school level economics textbook if you are actually willing to learn and educate yourself, if that is not too difficult for you.
Lol, listen to me mate. GDP doesn't mean shit. Does it take into account how large or small a country is? Nope. GDP per capita means that China is currently 90 and god knows where India is. Ok, so you say GDP matters because it measures output. Hmm, but what does that reflect? hmmm?
c+i+g+x-im is a good estimate to rank a country now? How about you go read a book FROM START TO FINISH, instead of reading about 1 or 2 economic theories. Fuck, I hate people who pretend to know about economics.
I am just going to take this an admission that you are clinically retarded. There is no point in trying to reason with an idiot such as yourself, and I don't intend to stoop down to your level as that would just be an even further waste of my time.
>>44037463 >I have a degree in economics. >No serious economist takes GDP seriously in terms of ranking the countries.
Alright Mehmet, you are clearly correct. You must be an expert in gauging the investment potential developing and emerging markets judging by the quality of your posts, such as>>44035806 , which actually directly contradicts your assertion. I am also 110% certain that you have a degree in economics, as no one would ever lie on the internet.
>which actually directly contradicts your assertion
Nope, I was just refuting your claim.
Do you know how much China had to sacrifice in order to join the WTO? A lot. China is a force to be reckoned with, no doubt. But the fact is that they were dirt poor before they began heavy industrialization in the 50s. They were the largest economy in terms of the GDP for 18/20 centuries. They will be strong. AIIB has already attracted EU countries and the US will likely concede its position AFTER China surpasses it in terms of HUMAN capital. That is where countries like US and UK have a comparative advantage. They will likely maintain this comparative advantage in our lifetime. See, Heckscher-Ohlin model and its implications in the long-term and I'm sure you'll understand what I'm talking about.
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