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/Econ/ Economics General #6: Tom Brady Edition

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This thread is for a discussion of economics. Politics belongs on >>>/pol/

Economic Calendar:
http://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Economic News:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4042777-fx-oil-week-ahead-great-nonfarm-numbers-poor-wage-growth-stronger-dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/06/were-going-to-have-a-dollar-collapse-like-the-1980s-analyst-says.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/trump-advisor-gary-cohn-everything-were-doing-is-to-promote-growth-and-job-creation.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/us-factory-orders-increase-more-than-expected-shipments-surge.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/feb/06/british-bosses-brexit-german-factory-orders-draghi-gig-economy-live

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2017/feb/05/greek-debt-crisis-existentialist-drama-schauble-tsipras-lagarde-trump

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5300625518001/?#sp=show-clips

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/02/05/michigan-leads-effort-to-shift-workers-away-from-pensions.html

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/02/05/dollar-subdued-after-us-wage-growth-disappoints.html
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>>1779107
OP starting the discussion. What economic trends do you guys forecast for the Eurozone in 2017?
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Oh boy the eurozone current account surplus continues to grow. Brexit keeps on giving.
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Any economic plan that doesn't call for the culling of old people will be inadequate and unsustainable.
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>>1779107
>David Marsh, a financial specialist that advises asset management firms, is predicting a dollar crash akin to that seen in the 1980s, as the world's reserve currency continues to rally off the back of the new U.S. administration following continued gains seen over recent years.

fuck off
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>>1779120
I've heard a lot about the London financial center moving to European areas, like Paris and Frankfurt. If the EU doesn't fuck up and pass the financial transactions tax and Macron is able to pass things like the Loi Macron in France, is there a chance of this happening? Would it still happen, even if England cuts its corporate tax rate to around that of Ireland?
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>>1779161
The most immediate issue is the status of euro-denominated clearing. The eurozone is very keen on repatriating it, which would drag 80k-100k jobs from the City to the continent.
The market and US regulators are against putting geographic restrictions on clearinghouses, because it unneccesarily divides capital pools, but the EU seems rather intransigent on doing this to punish the UK.
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>>1779204
Shit. Seems like Brexit really fucked the financial sector then. Could Trump influence the EU to stand down in his meeting with NATO members at some point this week?
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>>1779219
You mean the one in May?
I suppose he could, but then he hasn't exactly gotten off on the right foot with the EU. He has enough power over trade to bully them into a lot short-term, but Brexit is going to last longer than 8 years.
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>>1779235
Oh yeah sorry about getting the date wrong, I just saw the headlines. Once London gets replaced as the center for the euro-denominated clearing, where would the trade go? Would Dublin be a good competitor, or is it most likely heading for established centers like Frankfurt or Paris?
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>>1779144
What's so unlikely about a decrease in the value of the USD? I understand the rate hikes, but Trump himself has said that the US Dollar is overvalued and the last protectionist president we had was Reagan, who negotiated the Plaza Accords that caused the Yen to appreciate and the Dollar to depreciate.
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>>1779317
>protectionist president we had was Reagan
usa has always been part protectionist-mostly free trade
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>>1779324
I meant that Trump echoed a lot of Reagan's rhetoric regarding trade and even though Reagan did set the stage for NAFTA, he also imposed auto quotas on Japanese companies and made the Yen appreciate.

Presidents like Obama and Bush may pass small tariffs here and there, like tires in the case of the former and steel in the case of the latter, but with stuff like TPP and CAFTA it's hard to argue that they aren't free traders in principle and a mix of both in practice.
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>>1780528
I'd say that applies more so to Bush than Obama, who rallied against NAFTA and CAFTA and promised to not negotiate any similar trade deals as president back in 2008.
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>>1779116
Bump for interest
Thread posts: 15
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