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Market Redpills: +99.9/100 times the market has priced a security

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Market Redpills:
+99.9/100 times the market has priced a security correctly based on available information.
+You will never find a wrongly priced large cap stock. There are a million buy and sell side analysts who are better resourced and smarter than you. You're just gambling.
+You will never make a risk adjusted alpha off of option spread trading. Your shitty little spreads with a couple regressions will never compete with the Physics PhDs.
+You will never make risk adjusted returns off of arbitrage opportunities in options markets/merger scenarios/different stock classes. The machines will beat you or you will disregard probability and get lucky 1/100 times and lose your shirt the other 99.
+You will never make money scalping the news. The robots will beat you.
+Market making will always be more profitable than directional trading.
+If you have less than 100mm AUM you won't make a dime in distressed debt.
+Retail ForEx trading is a scam.
>>
>>1743799
> you will never get alpha off of options
> you will never beat directional trading

well its gotta be one of those dumbass
>>
>>1743799

> +99.9/100 times the market has priced a security correctly based on available information.

> +You will never find a wrongly priced large cap stock. There are a million buy and sell side analysts who are better resourced and smarter than you. You're just gambling.

Both of these are demonstrably false. Example: any bubble basically ever. Analysts and other smart people suffer from cognitive biases just like the rest of us.

Efficient Market Hypothesis has also been so thoroughly debunked that I can't believe that people even bother with it anymore.
>>
t. Year 2 Finance major

LT GXY holders say hi.
>>
>>1743920
holy shit OP #rekt
>>
>>1743920
>Efficient Market Hypothesis has also been so thoroughly debunked

It's not so much debunked/wrong as it simply doesn't apply 100% that often. It's important to understand as a basic scenario for modeling, like the ideal gas law. You learn it as a student because it's great at illustrating the basic mechanics of market phenomena, but ultimately it doesn't apply perfectly to almost any specific case.
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>>1743799

anything more you got to project?
>>
>>1743799

As someone work works alongside buy and sell side professionals on a daily basis, you'd be surprised how dumb most of them are.

Fixed income guys are the real smart ones
>>
>>1743799
Shitty bait
-1/10
>>
>>1743799

>emh
bullshit
>analysts
LMFAO
>spread trading
here i must agree
>arb/news
mostly true but there are opportunities even intraday
>market making
well yes
>debt
dunno
>fx
probably
>>
>>1744527
>Fixed income guys are the real smart ones

elaborate
>>
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I majored in finance and work a shitty 60+ hour a week job at a shitty firm. It sounds like OP read a basic introductory to finance textbook and thinks he's an expert now. I'm assuming he's a junior or senior at a shitty public college with no real experience.

Let me break it down for you.

Financial professionals are humans too. They have emotions, they have bias, and they have their own flaws. Just because investment banking firm X says ABC is worth $50 a share doesn't mean shit. Also not everybody is a 150 IQ quant or PHD. There are some serious mentally retarded people even in the biggest firms. You don't need to be a genius or smart even to get into banking. You just need to be good with people, have a strong work ethic, and stick to your word. When you get interviews you will always get asked what do you think of X or tell me about something you researched. You explain and then they will pick you apart. Why. That's absurd. Etc. The correct answer is to always stick to your word no matter what. If you can easily be swayed differently then you aren't cut out for financial research. Its also a who you know industry. It doesn't matter if you reprogrammed Microsoft 8 by yourself in 2 months and developed your own AI that learned how to scrape the web for any details related to a stock when you were 14, you won't get anywhere (well you probably will if you can do that) unless you know people. I've seen people come in the door that are retarded as fuck simply because they knew somebody in the firm. They don't know a thing about anything. They majored in hipster glass painting and got a 2.1 GPA. But they are good with people and "make a good image for the firm" so they hire them anyways and have some poor bastard analyst attempt to teach them finance while doing their own job for the next 6 months. Meanwhile John Smith applies. He had a 4.0 GPA at UVA in finance and had an internship at a quant fund. But nobody knows him. Better not take the risk.
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>>1745223
so what do you do at the firm you're hired at?

>You explain and then they will pick you apart. Why. That's absurd. Etc. The correct answer is to always stick to your word no matter what.

better hope the interviewer doesn't have more experience in the subject than you do...
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>>1744203
hi
Thread posts: 14
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