DOW JONES EUPHORIA

>>1718028
Once dow hits 20k Yellen will have more reason to crank up rates another 50 to 75 basis points. Don't expect it to happen before Feb though. If you really want to see it happen then buy GS, it's the highest weighted equity in the index.

>>1718047
>GS shares up over 75% since Brexit
>buy GS

great way to lose money lad, this euphoric nonsense in financials reminds of tech stock mania in 1999 and 2000.

>>1718047
Financials are expected to do well in the short term when rates are hiked

They will benefit first from the increased rates before loans begin to decline

>>1718056
I said, "if you really want to see [dow hit 20k] then buy GS, it's the highest weighted equity in the index." That doesn't mean I think it's a good idea or that it's undervalued.

That said, GS will continue to go up. Credit derivative markets are fucking booming and the mixture of banking deregulation which is soon to come and our next president's proposed cabinet picks mean that GS will see profit (and therefore an increase in share price) for at least a few more quarters. If you disagree and have a reason other than, "bank stocks have been green for too long," then I'd love to hear it.

>>1718064
- Default rates will rise as interest rates increase.
- A majority of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck, they can't handle significant increases in their mortgage rates (which are already up by 1 pp since election) without decreases in house prices which would have a knock on effect to banks again.
- The auto-bubble (especially sub-prime auto) is about to pop and banks exposed to auto loans will take a hit.
- We are at the end of the business cycle so delinquencies and default rates across most loan classes are already on the rise whilst unemployment has likely bottomed out.

Then there's the matter of the Fed likely backing down on rate hikes soon and shifting rhetoric towards cuts as the US enters technical recession, again hitting the financials.

Any way I see it, the financials are going to get hit hard over the next year or so. Sure they might have a bit more of this blow-off top rally to go, but there's no way I'm going to be caught holding financial stocks when this train comes to a stop.

File: emotional-cycle.jpg (153KB, 1004x497px) Image search: [Google]

153KB, 1004x497px

>>1718028
> euphoria

>>1718110
>euphoria
M'lady

>>1718096
I think you're confusing the previous credit bubble with the current economic climate. No longer are the majority of Americans' mortgages adjustable rate so default rates will not increase as interest rates are increased and there will be no "increases in their mortgage rates" since lending laws were tightened post-2010 and fixed rate mortgages became the new normal. Banks have very very small exposure to auto loans as separate entities buy these up to package them into ABSs, I can assure you banks will not take a hit in the EXTREMELY unlikely event that the EXTREMELY small subprime portion of the auto-loan market goes bad.

In reference to your statement regarding the Fed backing off of rates, post some sources or articles where Fed officials have said that they do NOT see rate hikes coming in the future and, instead, think that cutting rates again (which are already barely off of fucking zero) would stimulate the economy and help prolong the coming correction downward due to the business cycle ending and restarting.

Let me tell you some words of wisdom my old managing director told me back in the early 2000's when I started at JPM, "Time spent in the market beats trying to time the market 100% of the time." Put capital to work for returns or miss out sitting around waiting for an inevitable crash that you oh-so admittedly believe is right around the corner.

>>1718154
>Let me tell you some words of wisdom my old managing director told me back in the early 2000's when I started at JPM, "Time spent in the market beats trying to time the market 100% of the time." Put capital to work for returns or miss out sitting around waiting for an inevitable crash that you oh-so admittedly believe is right around the corner.
THIS NIGGA KNOWS WHATS UP

DJIA 20,000
THEN 2 1 0 0 0
THEN 2 2 0 0 0
THEN 2 3 0 0 0
2 0 17
0
1
7

>>1718154
Yes, everything is perfect and stable in the current economic climate. Absolutely nothing can go wrong anymore. Now I remember, I just need to go and buy stawks like all the financial media outlets keep telling everyone.

I don't give a shit what your scumbag, wanker MD at JP Morgan told you - your industry is full of sociopaths, I don't trust what any of them say.

Go ahead, keep buying financials, you're obviously in way deeper than you'd probably care to admit. I bet you're one of these guys that was yelling at people to buy them back in summer of '07.

>>1718166
I own JPM at about $30 per and GS at about $150. Assuming you don't have the same appetite for risk as my 98 year old grandmother then you should be fine seeing volatility within equity markets. There is no reward without risk, that doesn't mean be reckless but it does mean to be smart and brave.

>yes, everything is perfect and stable in the current economic climate
Nobody said that anon, I only stated that you shouldn't miss out on possible future returns due to an unnecessary fear of looming market correction. If you have ACTUAL hard-data that shows a significant portion of US mortgages are ARMs as opposed to fixed and that delinquency rates are steadily rising similar to 2005-2007 then post it.
Also, if you have ACTUAL hard-data that shows a significant number of auto-loans are subprime and that their delinquency rates are rising rapidly and that major banks have significant exposure to them then post that as well. I'm always willing to hear a dissenting opinion.

As for your comment regarding the quality of people within my industry, how many people who work in IBDs do you actually know? Or do you just repeat soundbites you've heard Joe Sixpack say in the gas station?

>>1718186
DIS IS PROOF DOW 2 2 0 0 0

>>1718190
Where did I put my "DOW 100,000" hat....

>>1718186

The market is at fedora levels of euphoria. How much longer do you think it can last?

>>1718186
yo what's up boss i'm FIG IBD analyst at JPM working under an asshole MD i don't want to say his name cause someone prolly knows him here but just wanted to say whattup dog

The market should wait for Obummer to get out office before reaching 20k

>>1718261
A smart man once said, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

>>1718290
May or may not be why I said earlier, "won't see dow 20k until Feb."