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>TFW you tried to do a combination of dollar cost averaging

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>TFW you tried to do a combination of dollar cost averaging and timing the market retardedly for a year after getting an inheritance

Why the fuck didn't you tell me to just invest it right away...
>>
you didn't lose any money by doing this unless you were selling short.

if you were buying valleys of different stocks you were watching, you should be better off anyways.
whats the problem?
>>
>>1638303
try r9k
>>
>>1638304
I missed out on significant gains...

I inherited $25k when the s&p was almost at 1900. Literally right at that time. And i retardedly invested and wasted time until it's now over 2200.
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>>1638309
why didn't you look at a history chart?

you would know if u were buying in a peak or trough.

this shit aint rocket science
>>
>>1638315
that's not what he means by this.
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>>1638317
if ur just blindly buying in at peaks and troughs thats pretty fuckin dumb.

just buy low. sell high.
its not rocket science.
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>>1638324
>just buy low. sell high.
>its not rocket science.

Yeah that sounds simple, but how the fuck do you know what a "low" is?
>>
>>1638326
you need to cut your teeth on some simulations before you fuck with the market .

look at some history charts
you dont' know how to use yahoo finance, you shoulnd't be fucking with the market .

just sit ur money in a bank till you know what your doing.
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>>1638331
>you need to cut your teeth on some simulations before you fuck with the market .
>look at some history charts
>you dont' know how to use yahoo finance, you shoulnd't be fucking with the market .
>just sit ur money in a bank till you know what your doing.

Pretty much every single resource I can find says that timing the market is incredibly difficult, if not impossible.

But yet I should somehow figure it out and succeed?

Rly makes u think.

http://badmoneyadvice.com/2009/04/why-market-timing-is-hard.html
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>>1638333
>reading
>the same as experience


find a time lapse simulation and prove out your theories before you marry them.
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>not always investing a lump sum windfall right away

https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/7.23.2012_Dollar-cost_Averaging.pdf

Fucking pleb idiots I swear to god. Be a big boy with balls and put that money to work.
>>
>>1638335
The works already been done by people smarter than us.

Market timing rarely, if ever works.

>>1638339
I know I know.

I'm a fool for not seeing it earlier. I've learned now though, too bad I lost a fair bit of gains as a result.
>>
tradings not for everybody, some people get so hung up on what could have been they shut down and lie in bed all day
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>>1638340
>us
speak for yourself

i wanna see the proof on a sim of any theory your trying to put to me.

if u cant outperform me on a sim.
why the fuck am i gonna believe you?

a time lapse sim is a literal numerical simulation of the total market as hundreds if not thousands of years and different situations and possibilities take place.

most of those books were written b4 good sims existed by ppl who never used a sim.


quit being a fucking know it all if u haven't even proven ur theory out on a fuckin time lapse sim u fucking retard.

jesus.
u moron.

>believe whatever u read in a book about REAL MONEY

prove it out on a sim.

beat my score on or b4 my time.. im playing on top difficulty btw.

its so simple . otherwise ur just fucking ignorant and wrong. let it go.
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>>1638348
Not him, but there is no need for indexers to compete in stock picking with nitwits like you. I'll make more money sitting on my ass doing nothing, than you will spending 10 hrs a day staring at charts and trading.
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>>1638352
where were you to tell me to invest lumpsum?
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>>1638352
prove it by showing me your results on a sim.
otherwise ur just ignorantly running ur mouth with no facts.

its fear based and weak.

prove out ur theory. till then u have no clue what ur talking about.
you have no proof.
what dont u udnerstand about that?

YOU DONT HAVE PROOF
THAT YOUR STRATEGY AND THEORY
WORKS TIME AND TIME AGAIN
OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME
COMPARED TO ACTIVE TRADING OF COMMODITIES STOCKS BONDS OPTIONS AN D FUTURES


you dont have proof

you dont have experience

peroid.

i do

i win


the end.

its that simple.

you were #REKT

be honest with yourself and stick 2 the FACTS

thank u

gg
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>>1638358
There's no need for any sims, because I invest real money and have real results to show for it. 16.3% in a year doing nothing except chillin' and watching my portfolio grow.

>>1638355
At least you've learned your lesson now. Always invest everything you have available and don't touch it. Let it ride for 30-40 years and maybe both of us will meet on some cruise ship in the carribean one day.
>>
>>1638352
btw if ur not serious enough about trading to prove out your little financial theorys with real computational math on a sim.
then you're not to be taken seriously.
>>
>>1638362
what is ur portfolio m8
>>
>>1638367
One S&P 500 Index fund, one market capitalization weighted index fund that covers the entire world and a variation on the 2nd one that focuses on high dividend yield
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>>1638369
how the fuck do you have such high returns though

I've only gotten like 6.5%
>>
>>1638362
btw.
if your so confident in the market only going up the moment u lump sum invest

why did you buy stocks instead of options?

you would have gotten 10x the returns you have now.

it just goes 2 show u have no clue what your talking about.
>>
>>1638369
Do you think trump is going to make us rich btw?

I thought everyone was saying he'd destroy the economy?
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>>1638378
dont talk 2 that moron. their never going to get rich with that lame duck strategy.

if u want trump 2 get u rich, read his book, the art of the deal.

that dumbass woulnd't know a good deal if it shit on their chest.
>>
>>1638380
How much money do you have in the market?
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>>1638381
scroll back up to where you can see i acheived 1 trillion dollars on the simulation.


i have all my savings in investments of some sort a good majority of that being in the actual market in some capacity.
>>
>>1638384
nice that's really good returns. You must have insane returns in the real market too, right?
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>>1638389


the time lapse is a more reliable scale for the ability to achieve results long term .
you shoulnd't really be interested in what someone does day to day or even year to year.

or even over an entire life time
it could have just been good market conditions .

you really need to look at consistent ability to replicate results on the sims .
the sims dont lie.
they present all sort of random market conditions.

i have multiple sucessful simulations.
but that isn't to say i havent' had "failures" as well experimenting and trying out new theorys.

but yea, i test out all my theorys before i bring em 2 my real hard earned money. ofc.
>>
>>1638303
You did it correctly. Going all in at once is not the way to invest. The only reason it feels like a failure is because the market has been going straight up. If it was lower right now than where you started, you would be feeling great that you didn't put everything in right at the beginning and cost averaged instead. Protecting your capital and not losing money is the right way to do it.
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>>1638488
This is contradictory to all research showing that lumpsum is better in the majority of cases. Yes if you invest right before a crash it would be awful, but the market is more up than it is down.
>>
>>1638490
There is almost never a reason to immediately lump sum everything and go all in unless your time frame is very short and you are willing to lose a lot.

If you're investing and you don't mind a higher degree of risk, it still would make much more sense at minimum to go half and half. Start off with half at what you would consider a good entry point and then press the gas with the other half when the market is going your direction.

Investing is the key word here. You are investing for stable returns over a period of time , not to win the lottery. Smart allocation is the best way to achieve that.
>>
>>1638495
>There is almost never a reason to immediately lump sum everything and go all in unless your time frame is very short and you are willing to lose a lot.

Completely the opposite. Lumpsum works out better long-term without a doubt. You have longer market exposure.

>If you're investing and you don't mind a higher degree of risk, it still would make much more sense at minimum to go half and half. Start off with half at what you would consider a good entry point and then press the gas with the other half when the market is going your direction.

[Citation needed]
>Investing is the key word here. You are investing for stable returns over a period of time , not to win the lottery. Smart allocation is the best way to achieve that.

And the smartest is lumpsum.

Just google it. Lumpsum is best
>>
>>1638505
When you go all in and the S&P is 300 points lower than your entry, don't forget to start a thread about how lump sum was the right way to invest.
>>
>>1638508
The likelihood of you investing right before a major correction is very unlikely.

It IS the right way, mathematically and based on empirical evidence. Doesn't mean it doesn't have risks.
>>
>>1638510

But it does happen. There are people who lump summed at the peak before the gfc... And then spent years in negative equity. However you should still lump sum if your time horizon is 10+ years.
But if you think the market could turn in the short term, don't lever. Downturns don't destroy wealth, they transfer it from over leveraged plebs. Make sure you are in a position to ride out the volatility, besides, if a stock is 'down' you haven't lost money until you have to sell. Make sure you won't be forced to sell and you're g2g.
>>
>>1638303
>Why the fuck didn't you tell me to just invest it right away...
We did.

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1638562#p1638571

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1638303#p1638339

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1578045#p1578928

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1578045#p1578858

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1524593#p1525314

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S1431160#p1431660

https://warosu.org/biz/thread/S575461#p575566
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>>1638743
>if you think
My point is that you can't know.
>>
>>1638309
How the fuck do you inherit only $25k? Is it like a far aunt or something?

If my grandparents would die (3 grandchildren) I would still get at least €200k. If my mother died (I have a sister) I'd get about €450k and if my dad died I'd get another €250k and neither one of these people are what you would call "rich".

They live very basic lives, almost never waste money on stupid shit like expensive holidays and just save their money like I do. Hell, I even have €14k saved up at the moment and I'm still in uni.
>>
>>1638932
Well if the S&P just dropped 50% any time in the past 4 years then you can be ~90% certain that another huge drop ain't coming any time soon and you're probably best off just lump summing it.
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>>1638984
>Well if the S&P just dropped 50% any time in the past 4 years then you can be ~90% certain that another huge drop ain't coming any time soon

>Well if heads comes up on a coin 4 times in a row then you can be ~90% certain that the next flip will be a tails
>>
>>1638403
>but yea, i test out all my theorys before i bring em 2 my real hard earned money. ofc.
so you havnt actually made a single penny in profit, you just deride others due to jealous contempt?
>>
>>1638324
Time in the market, not timing the market.

More to the point, if you can time markets with any regularity, why aren't you a billionaire yet?
>>
>>1638743
>But it does happen.
people win scratch off lotto tickets, doesnt mean investing my lifes savings on lotto scratchoffs is a good strategy to make money
>>
>>1638984
No, you can't.

Simply put, the odds are not in your favor - not in the slightest. Your "gut instinct" is wrong, more often than not (and the times where it is right can be attributed purely to luck).
>>
>>1639057
do better than me on the sim then i will listen 2 u.
ur just ignorant .
>>
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>>1639057
ig·no·rant
ˈiɡnərənt/
adjective
lacking knowledge or awareness in general; uneducated or unsophisticated.
"he was told constantly that he was ignorant and stupid"
synonyms: uneducated, unknowledgeable, untaught, unschooled, untutored, untrained, illiterate, unlettered, unlearned, unread, uninformed, unenlightened, benighted; More
lacking knowledge, information, or awareness about something in particular.
"they were ignorant of astronomy"
synonyms: without knowledge of, unaware of, unconscious of, oblivious to, incognizant of, unfamiliar with, unacquainted with, uninformed about, ill-informed about, unenlightened about, unconversant with, inexperienced in/with, naive about, green about; informalin the dark about, clueless about


ur ignorance is never gonna trump my knowledge and experience no matter how hard u try . especially not with character assasination..read over what i wrote again and u will see i already adressed ur point into the ground , in an undeniable fashion.
>>
>>1639089
How much real money have you invested and what are your returns. Simple question.

If the answer is "none" then gtfo, /biz/ isn't a roleplay board.
>>
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>>1639100
mad and jealous you cant constantly prove out successful trading strategies ?
trolling?
or just lonely and begging for back and forth conversation with someone of higher value than yourself?


i have 10billion dollars.
and i get 2000% returns a year

wanna take the market simulator seriously now and stop talking out of your ass?
or are u gonna find a problem with everything that doesn't perfectly align with your ignorant and narrow understanding of math, computing and finance?
>>
>>1638369
So VOO VTI and VYM?
>>
Do any of you have a fucking clue what you're doing? Why wouldn't you research the concept before putting it into action?

The sword cuts both ways. If a stock is on the way down, dollar cost averaging will lower your ACB and minimize losses. However, if a stock is on the rise then dollar cost averaging will raise your ACB and minimize gains.

Just learn from it, pick yourself up and keep moving. Take a course on securities if you're this retarded, /biz/ is not the place you should be seeking advice.
>>
>>1639108
>VOO VTI and VYM?
Jesus christ you're gullible. That's a terrible selection to put together.
>>
>>1639110
I know they all track almost the same thing but thats what the other guy said, i guess it would be VOO VT and VYMI though
>>
>>1639120
No it wouldn't. The proper portfolio would be VTI, VXUS, BND, and BNDX.

Unless you happen to like duplicating your portfolio, missing asset classes, paying higher fees, and investing in meme stocks. In which case, do whatever the fuck you want.
>>
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>>1639110
>>1639108
>>1639138

Conclusion
The gist of MPT is that the market is hard to beat and that the people who beat the market are those who take above-average risk. It is also implied that these risk takers will get their comeuppance when markets turn down.

Then again, investors such as Warren Buffett remind us that portfolio theory is just that - theory. At the end of the day, a portfolio's success rests on the investor's skills and the time he or she devotes to it. Sometimes it is better to pick a small number of out-of-favor investments and wait for the market to turn in your favor than to rely on market averages alone.(To learn more, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
Read more: Modern Portfolio Theory: Why It's Still Hip | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/mpt.asp#ixzz4RFsaVmf8
>>
>>1639143
>The gist of MPT is that the market is hard to beat and that the people who beat the market are those who take above-average risk. It is also implied that these risk takers will get their comeuppance when markets turn down.
This is sophistry on its own. Adding risk is neither inherently good nor bad. Risk-adjusted return is what we should be looking at, not risk.

> investors such as Warren Buffett
Uggh. For the millionth time, Buffett isn't an investor. He does mergers, acquisitions, integrations, and strategic combinations. As soon as you have the capital to play the same game he does, then you can get the same score. Until then, you're not even competing in the same sport.
>>
>>1639138
What about just VT and BND, isnt that like yours but simpler?
>>
>>1639168
>What about just VT and BND, isnt that like yours but simpler?
No, its demonstrably worse.

VT has an expense ration of 0.14% compared to 0.05% for VTI and 0.13% for VXUS. Fees matter.

Also, BND is only the U.S. bond market, which is why I included BNDX.
>>
>>1639172
What allocation would you use for yours?
>>
>>1639176
It depends on your age, your goals, your needs, your income, and your risk tolerances. But assuming you're an average 18-24 year old, there's no reason to second guess the Target Retirement 2060 allocations: 54% VTI, 36% VXUS, 7% BND, 3% BNDX.
>>
>>1638743
>if your time horizon is 10+ years.
this is the key
Lump sum wins long term.
Dollar-cost averaging is for if you're worried about short-term losses, and anyway you still shouldn't time the market but just invest once a week or once a month.

>I'm a robinmeme shitter and even I know this
>>
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>>1639159
>she thinks shes arguing with me

>arguing with investopedia

>doesn't understand the concept "as above so below"
>>
>>1638943
Well for it makes sense from my perspective. My Dad just finished building his new home about 10 years ago.

His policy is worth roughly 500,000, enough for each child to have about 100k.

My dad still owes about 200k on the mortgage, and I'm sure about another 50k with the two cars, one for him and one for my Mom, and various credit cards.

If he croaked today, God forbid, he would leave me somewhere between 30 and 50k, after all bills were paid. Assuming of course we paid off all liabilities, and didn't leave my mom to get schlonged. The house and other properties would be distributed according to the will.

So it's possible that if we auctioned of the estate, I'd be left with more, but that is not certain.
>>
>>1639285
If you get all your investment knowledge from Investopedia, you deserve your eternal poverty.
>>
>>1639403
>>1639104
;)
>>
>>1638309
You can't look the stock market as a bunch of what ifs. If the stock market had crashed further instead you'd be making this same post bitching about why you didn't just hold it all till the bottom.

The whole point of DCA is that you get an average result. That means you miss out on some gains but also defend yourself from some losses. Hopefully you knew that going in when you chose to do DCA. I have no idea why you've forgotten it.
>>
>>1639403
lmao I read investopedia for about 2 months, then went on to invest in companies that were 10-baggers. From an initial investment of ten grand, I'm now sitting at 800,000. And the best part is I don't even have an econ degree.
>>
Ok you sissy faggots, I'm going to throw you a bone once more. If you are investing long-term, lump-sum is still guaranteed to get you the best results. This assumes that you are not a weak-willed faggot who will sell, and that you invest long-term.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

The market goes up most of the time, choosing to delay your investment, you are betting on it going down soon. Invest, stay the course, grow rich.
>>
>>1639104

You get 20 trillion dollars a year?
>>
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>>1639793
>the market is rational short term
>>
>>1639190
am I missing out if I dump all my shit in VWRL? europoor btw
>>
Why didn't you just put your inheritance in a safe investment like property?

>safe asset
>safe income
>acceptable interest
>etc
>>
>>1639969
>am I missing out if I dump all my shit in VWRL? europoor btw
You're missing any bond exposure. Personally, I think its a mistake to have less than 9-10% bonds. regardless of how young you are and regardless of the current interest rate environment. Bonds help even out the performance of your portfolio, and can provide a bit of a hedge when equities underperform.

While VWRL looks like it has good global coverage on the equity side, it wouldn't be my first choice if you had access to better alternatives. It's an actively managed fund, and it's fees are highers than what I'm accustomed to seeing for broad index funds. I do understand that sometimes EU folks have fewer options and higher fees, so do you due diligence to be sure you're not overpaying for management.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/EU_investing
>>
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>>1640361
>It's an actively managed fund

VWRL is a beast, 3k securities covering almost all of the investable market. TER is alright, for European standards. You amerifats don't even know how good you've got it.

I own VWRL, VHYL and VUSA, shit's the best.
>>
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>>1640546
>VWRL
Apologies if I was wrong about the management style. When I looked up the fund on Vanguard's site, it gave me pic related, which seemed to imply active management. But I admit I don't know Vanguard's non-US offerings as well as some of you do. Which is why I included the link to Boglehead's EU advice wiki.
>>
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>>1640563
m8, your picture lists several actively managed funds, VWRL is not among them. I assume that the yellow box is a general "warning" of sorts, displayed on every fund.
>>
>>1640568
You seem to assume that I care a great deal about European Vanguard funds. I assure you I do not. There's no need for you to tell me facts that I now already know and that I never really cared about in the first place.

m'kay?
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