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File: MSTX.jpg (53KB, 415x546px) Image search: [iqdb] [SauceNao] [Google]
53KB, 415x546px
Alright boys, let's talk MSTX strategy. I tried to do some research for myself, so I prepared this set of notes, and an if/then flow chart. Basically, this is my first shot at something like this, so if anyone has any pointers to give, I will welcome them.

Hopefully this will also help bring some of us up to speed, if anything. But really, I'm interested in your opinions. If you think I'm way off-base please let me know.
Is this a joke? The text in the OP imagine is completely fucking unreadable
File: MSTX.jpg (42KB, 745x392px) Image search: [iqdb] [SauceNao] [Google]
42KB, 745x392px
FFS can't see anything.

The purpose of this chart is to determine the most probable results of Mast Therapeutics Inc. (MSTX) Vepoloxamer phase III clinical trials (EPIC).

"If vepoloxamer succeeds in becoming the first approved therapy for vaso-occlusive crisis of SCD, the company’s revenues are expected to shoot up significantly." While a "failure would force it to prepay $10 million of the principal balance of the loan to its debtors in October 2016".

In order for the vepoloxamer study to succeed the tested data must pass through a QA/QC process, after which the company may present an approvable non-disclosure agreement to the FDA.

"EPIC is a double-blinded study, which means that neither Mast, the physician investigators, nor the patients involved in the clinical trial know the outcome of the study. The EPIC study data will remain blinded to Mast, including to its management and employees, throughout the completion of the QA/QC process and database lock procedures."

Mast has "completed 100% of the first round reviews and approximately 60% of the second round reviews." There will be a third and final set of reviews, after which the QA/QC process will be completed.

Mast's lender, Hercules Capital has approved a deadline extension till October 14, 2016, after which Mast must prepay $10 million of the principal loan for carrying out the study.

Once the QA/QC process is completed, Mast will then lock the database of results, "the blinded data will be transferred to the independent biostatisticians, [and] unblinding will occur."

As of July 25, 2016, the QA/QC process has still not been completed.
Pic related is a chart which seeks to resolve why the results have not been released, and offers propositions whether further investment into Mast Therapeutics is a good decision. It should also be noted that until the quality assurance/control process is completed, Mast will not have the results of the study available for processing.

Prediction: The stock may slightly rise, but will mostly continue at a price of $0.50-0.60 until October. As we approach the cut-off date of October 14, 2016, the price will start to decline drastically; however it is most-likely that Mast will release data before that date.
If the data is unfavorable, it is in the best interest of Mast to inform at a high point in order to prevent drastic devaluation in stock price.
If it is favorable, they will release it as soon as possible.
An important question which needs to be answered is: has the QA/QC data been released to Mast? And if so, when was that done?If it was released a long time ago, the chances are that Mast is intentionally delaying the announcement.
If the QA/QC data has not been received yet, the main question is: will it be received before October 14? If not, does the company still have a chance for profit after that date, provided the results are favorable?

I know, baby. Give it time.

File: Data.png (163KB, 448x252px) Image search: [iqdb] [SauceNao] [Google]
163KB, 448x252px

Who knows, but we all go down with the ship.
The conference tells us that they cannot purposely delay the data from being released and only have within 24-48 hours to release when they obtain it.
True, I considered that too. But when you think about it, its all so subjective. If you wanted to hold it, you can always say 'we're still processing all the data, and it's not ready for submission' even though you're finished.

The biostatistician is supposed to be a third-party, but I'm sure there's some sort of comment/review process which allows them to hold it up.
Can anyone confirm whether or not they got the data from the QA/QC review, or is has it still not been released? I feel like that would tell us a lot.
Thread posts: 9
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