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Is Amazon stock overvalued? It's looking extremely expensive

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Is Amazon stock overvalued?

It's looking extremely expensive to me.
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>>1503506
many people (especially in my county) are starting now to sell chimichonga stuff on amazon making good money.
theres are even courses for this.
amazon expected to be really big next few years and the rise begins now.
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>>1503509

That sounds like classic bubble behaviour.
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>>1503511
will rise... will fall... like anything...
but the you need to ride on the wave (assuming there is still one but it seems like there is)
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Anyone who says amazon is overvalued hasn't looked at their AWS stuff. Their generating fucking stupid revenue through their cloud platform.

IT loves it because it's flexible, saleable, secure, relatively cheap for most applications, and it's a line item expense. Bean counters can't squeeze it to 'increase efficiency' because IT just goes, lolthatshowmuchitcosts, so even when it does cost more, it's still treated as better because of office politics. The ability to just scale up and down as you need it is so powerful. Monthly automated audit? Run it through their python 'fee per operation' system to crunch without impacting performance of anything else. Let it run for 5 hours, and only pay for the time used. Company growing? Let me just double the ram, and add an extra core or two for our database server.

Selling shit made in China to people is practically their side business at this point.
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Amazon will become the largest company of the world at the end of 2030.

By 2090 they will have an interplanetary delivery service.
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>>1503527

Largest company by what metric? Revenue, EBITDA, net income?

inb4 'all of them'
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>>1503525
your wrong, sellind shit made in china is in a huge rise right now.
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>>1503525
Their cloud servers are a complete fucking meme and come out more expensive than just renting a VPS if you have any usage at all.
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>>1503529
I am not sure if it will be the largest company, but definitely in the top 10.

Companies like Royal Dutch Shell and other BigOil will fade into the history books by ~2050

Bezos said he wanted to make Earth one large nature reserve.

By the end of 2150 there will be millions of people working and living in outer space

By the end of 2200 Mars will be completely terraformed and we will have colonized multiple planets in our solar system

(and the good thing is, only the intelligent people are allowed to go)

The first people that will become hundreds of years old are already born (most likely billionaires)

if you want to experience all of this, you want to get rich and buy that life extension technology when its there

otherwise die with the plebs
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>>1503535

> by 2200 Mars will be completely terraformed

I want to believe this, but how? The atmosphere bleeds out into space.
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>>1503533
Most things don't require full power all the time. That's why their pay for usage model is so successful. If you do need dedicated (usually CPU usage), they have some options available too. Most VPS providers are oversold memes and even the good small ones like Ramnode are subject to DOS attacks. Enterprise level protection is expensive, and big cloud providers can just roll it in in ways that most small providers can't. If someone can nuke you in an Amazon data center, even Google probably wouldn't have the plumbing strong enough to defend you.

I fucking hate the cloud computing meme, but for a hell of a lot of business operations, the flexibility over dedicated boxes is extremely useful. You pay more for what you get, but if you only get what you need, you still save.

My company still has a shit ton of stuff through OVH, but we do enough serious data crunch that we have to have a bunch of boxes sitting in a data center chugging away at full CPU usage 80-90% of the time. For anything that isn't data crunch, we've progressively moved more and more shit over to pay as you go. It's generally cheaper, and it's substantially easier to manage.
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>>1503553
I will at least concede it's a lot easier to manage, my personal experience is that it's just not wurf it to go 100%, the staggered approach might be more viable.
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>>1503557
It's seriously great. One of our sites hit the first or second page of reddit for a bit, and the system just dynamically scaled past what our old dedicated box could have handled (and it's not like we had it on a piece of shit either). We didn't even notice until it was already coming back down. Most of the lag on page generation/transmission were from the limitations of apache scaling.

So what if it costs a bit of extra money. Management was happy the site never showed any real sign of stress. That's the enterprise world.

I know some companies are using AWS or other cloud providers to spin up several thousand high end boxes for an hour or two to do a massive parallelized crunch. They can turn a problem around in a day, and the cost is still less than having dedicated boxes. We only use dedicated boxes because turn around on those problems isn't as time critical, and we are running jobs nearly continuously.
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>>1503585
could you give a small list of "jobs". web isn't my niche.
apoogies for my plebery
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>>1503545
That's why you add more atmosphere.
I think NASA has a plan for this.
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>>1504538
We mostly do stat analysis of enormous blobs of data, looking for trends. Won't go into stuff that's too specific other than that it's vaguely marketing related.

A 'job' could be anything. Monthly/weekly/daily audits. Rendering a video. Parsing and restructuring a huge database (I've seen a couple that were well over a petabyte). Running a backup. Restoring a backup. Rolling out upgrades/updates. Verifying the integrity of data. etc. Basically anything that has a clearly defined start and end, and which you can often just throw horsepower at to finish it faster.

Something like a website wouldn't really be a 'job' in this sense since it's a service that is constantly running, and largely/mostly idle. That's on demand. That's a 'service'. Same with running a game server, or whatever.
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AWS Engineer here. I hope amazon doesn't stop growing. AWS certainly is showing no signs of slowing down
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>>1504609
Where'd you learn AWS? Currently starting to get into cloud stuff for my job, looking for some good courses.
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>>1504614
I meant I'm an Amazon employee. All of my experience with AWS has been working for AWS lol.

General advice though would be youtube videos or this udemy course, there's lots of different "AWS Certifications" now
https://www.udemy.com/aws-certified-solutions-architect-associate/
>>
>>1504599
>>1504609
salary????????????

I googled it, it said architect associate makes ~115k
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Good question.

It looks like a bubble, especially since the S&P 500 has been almost flat for a while, but there is a chance we have missed something and we have to research it a little to have any kind of accuracy.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amzn/sec-filings

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn/financials

revenue has been growing consistently at 20% per year the last few years, gross 25%+, this hasn't manifested in net income due to widely fluctuating taxes and Non Operating Income/Expense which I haven't really looked into yet, not sure how to make a decent valuation, but the current p/e on the S&P 500 is 25 and AMZN's market cap is 364.89B, so it is the equivalent of a low growth company with a net income of 14.6B, far higher than its average net income (which comes to 244.2M from 2011 to 2015), of course AMZN is a growing company and a lot of its expenses are essentially investments, its gross income in 2015 was 34B

A recent current report is about the election of Daniel P. Huttenlocher as director, he seems to have a technical background, might not be important

Their most recent quarterly doesn't say much about the EU taxes

>In addition, in October 2014, the European Commission opened a formal investigation to examine whether decisions by the tax authorities in Luxembourg with regard to the corporate income tax paid by certain of our subsidiaries comply with European Union rules on state aid. If this matter is adversely resolved, Luxembourg may be required to assess, and we may be required to pay, additional amounts with respect to current and prior periods and our taxes in the future could increase.

the recent EU tax debacle is coming up I think, so that might have an effect, it looks like it has already started to

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/30/after-apple-ruling-amazon-and-mcdonalds-are-eus-next-target/

if I were a speculator I would assume that the price will drop when the EU makes an announcement of some sort
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>>1503506
7.1 to be exact.

their financials look bad. but I think at least this year they are going to have positive numbers.
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No, they are undervalued if anything. They have only just started expanding all their business tools like crazy. People seem to value amazon because of its online retailer aspect but they dont realize that amazon provides shitloads of business tools and software that is way more valuable than anything else they do.

Just check out their web services
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This
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And this . According to the reverse d c f the earnings are supposed to grow at 50% for the next 10 years in order to justify the current price
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Yeah mom and pop stores are about to make a huge comeback once trump wins and absolutely blows China the fuck out
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>>1505430

7.1 what, sorry?
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>>1504706
glassdoor? Amazon people make good money. A lot of my customers have clients at Amazon. Work big hours get big money, funky rsu schedules. mean girl workin the fryer though
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>>1504706
>MFW I'm such a fucking neckbeard I thought you were talking about jobs as in shit we run on our servers, and didn't even consider you meaning jobs as in employment.
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>>1503525
This so much
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>>1503535
It sounds nice but I doubt it. Countries are not really interested in colonizing other planets, take into consideration how long it took to even renew space exploration interest since the first moon landing, which was only achieved because ussr was doing it. Besides terraforming will take so long that I doubt mars will be colonized before 2500
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>>1503506
overvalued.

buy the dip when it happens.
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>>1505891
no you got it right. that's what I asked the first time. Suck that neckbeard back in.

After you said your responsibilities I googled it and my ass fell out. I see a 15 hour course to pass a cert and make 100k. but I'm sure there is more to the job than that but its a start.
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>>1503506
>one of the largest digital distributers in the world
>top 10 website
>own massive data centers
>one of the primary streaming platforms
ya totally inflated value bubble inc
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>>1505837
you have the premium membership?
is it worth? what I do is just clear my cookies and it let me use the charts again but I have to interpret the data by myself. but I dont have access to guru picks and the warning signs.

>>1505866
according to the intrinsic value fcf, is overpriced 7.1 times. it is not a bad company is just people investing blindly on it. Just because hurrr durrr I like to buy in Amazon and they have a lot of magic stuff and a nice parking lot. financial statements what are those?
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i figure it's worth it for a year just to learn some stuff it has great definitions, definantely great for learning if anything. I bought it for the stock screeners. Are there any better stock screeners out there? Especially for net nets
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buy put options nao
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>>1507638
I use google stock screener with a very conservative numbers and ratios to filter most of the crap then start looking the financials of the companies over 10 years, I see the net income graphs, eps, book value per share and debt to equity.

I use market cap over 100M, p/e ratio 4-15, div yield 2-7%, price to book .6-1.5, total debt/equity (MRQ) 0-1, current ratio over 1.5, ROE (5yrs) over 7%, ROE (10yrs) over 7%.

after that, if I didnt find anything I play with the numbers according what risk I want to take.
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>>1505953
There's a lot more to it than that. If you don't have the mindset for it, it will be readily apparent at any company that has serious career opportunity.
Thread posts: 40
Thread images: 7


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