In the past 100 years, we've gone from a world of WW1 era weapons, all the world powers being monarchies, horses and buggies and where electricity and running water were luxuries in many places, to a world with space travel, a powerful computer in everyone's pocket, and thermonuclear weapons.
Make your predictions--what huge changes in our society do you think will happen in our lifetimes? Do you think 2117 will be as drastically different from 2017 as this year is from 1917?
Some likely topics: >Automation >Artificial intelligence >Weaponry and conflict >Transportation >Medicine >Space exploration >The balance of world power >Culture and lifestyle >How society will adapt to changes in all of the above
I'm going to screencap this, literally for posterity, and keep an eye on it over the years to see if any of you faggots are right
>>738889548 North Korea won't last in its current form for another hundred years. Either the US or the UN will change things, possibly uniting both Koreas.
Automation will continue to develop at its current pace, but Artificial intelligence will never take on the qualities of sentience. That is to say, computers will never be conscious, self aware, or sentient.
Weaponry won't advance too much further in human warfare. The only advancements left to be made are precision in not killing civilians. Biological weapons won't be pursued by advanced nations because they know how stupid it is to devote military resources toward attacking civilians, and nukes are already a thing. Instead, weapons will be developed that could save Earth from Asteroids and be used in space combat in the case that we ever get a foothold somewhere besides Earth.
Within 100 years old age may no longer be a cause of death in first world countries. Cancer, however, will never be cured, as there are far to many potential causes and types for such a feat to be feasible. Instead, the prevention of diseases will take priority.
Humanity will colonize Mars, but not within 100 years. Elon Musk is a fool, or really good at selling bad ideas. Most people don't know that the surface of Mars is far more radioactive than the center of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, and that you'd have to dig six feet underground to be protected. Of course, horrific bone density loss and the incredible expense of sending supplies to the Red Planet are more than enough reason to not let our hopes, or rockets, get off the ground any time soon. Also, for the record, Humanity will never venture outside the Solar System. Cosmic distances, even those on a mere interstellar level, are entirely beyond us.
The US will still be the most powerful nation in a hundred years. China will weaken, but its standards of living in its cities will increase as it becomes more capitalistic.
>>738890811 Cultures will center a little more around the internet and its use, but that's about it. The Web is the end of cultural evolution, at least for a long time. Society changes as ways of exchanging information get faster. The internet is nearly instantaneous, so it's not gonna get much different from here on out.
The US will grow even more polarized for a while, but eventually the liberals will win out as the conservatives lose any basis for their arguments. However, while society will grow more accepting of minorities and LGBT+ people, it will grow LESS accepting of the feminazi saw movements pushing this acceptance.
The glass ceiling will not be shattered, because men are simply slightly better on average at the skills needed to succeed in the corporate world.
Society will not adapt in any specific way. There's not much to adapt to that we haven't already.
>>738891126 China is going to get a lot weaker politically as climate change becomes undeniable and pressure grows for it to abandon NK as its ally.
>>738891172 The US's "military industrial complex" has existed for more than a hundred years already and has only gotten stronger every decade. The US sticks its head into every affair to ensure that the outcome is as favorable for it as possible, and in order to keep this they will continue to have an enormous military. Just look at the US standard of living: way better than most nations who spend a far smaller percent of their own resources on military matters than on feeding their populations and developing medical systems. The US has far more than they need, and they know it, so they make themselves the most powerful nation on Earth because why not?
>>738889548 I think that eventually the general human population will progress to be nonreligious (as has been the trend for a couple hundred years) and social progress will also rid is of many biases (gender, sexuality, skin tone, etc) but because people are human we'll find increasingly ridiculous things to hate each other for (like nipple shape in Rick and Morty)
>>738891670 Ridiculous. Robotics will never come close to replicating the fines of a human limb, let alone the nostalgic properties of our own bodies. One thing that I'll give to you is the heart. I doubt it, but it might become the case that within a hundred years that we start augmenting our heart for longevity.
But like I said, technology will never become sentient or capable of mimicking a human beyond text format. It's hard to imagine that consciousness could arise from a system that is by nature fully predictable.
>>738891810 China is already working towards making less of an impact on the environment. The U.S and China are the world's leading polluters, but the U.S is moving backwards as we've seen recently after leaving the Paris Climate Agreement.
Tensions will rise even higher between N.K and the U.S. Cold War 2
>>738892195 I wouldn't be so sure. The rate of technological advancement is exponential. If you dropped a 1917 human in 2017, his mind would be so blown it would probably lead to an existential crisis and break down.
>>738889548 >we have technology today to create a simulation of our own physical solar system >including, gravity, relativity, exact dimensions, and the ability to make real time calculations >expensive sure but posible >eventually we will be able to create a supercomputer that can do this but for a universe >it then becomes so that our pocket universe has a universe simulator in itself >this creates an infinite line of universes within universes >the only downside is that once this happens it becomes unlikely that we are at the top of that chain >so you see its pointless its all so pointless
>>738892342 That's a good point, perhaps you're right. But I believe that the US's setback is very temporary. Nobody expects Trump to get reelected, and even though "lol impeach the peach" was a joke it's still quite possibly going to happen. China is going to have a population crisis either way.
>>738889548 In about 10 years time, due to the exponential evolution of machine learning combined with exponentially faster processing power there is a growing sense of panic globally as it becomes apparent that the first organisation/government that creates a sentient, self learning A.I with basically be creating God. A race begins, something akin to the space race, with governments and corporations including Google, Microsoft etc accelerating effort to AI. In around the year 2029 the first artificial general intelligence is developed by a chinese company using their new Dragon ultra super computer with a quantum core. Beyond this moment is unpredictable, like the core of a black hole.. A singularity.
>>738889548 if we keep going the way we're going, we'll probably auto destroy ourselves within the next 60 years... we're fucking the planet up, 50 years ago, you didn't need sun protection cream to go to the beach, actually, people used creams to increment the effects of gamma ray so they could get that brownie skin tonality, nowadays, if you don't use solar cream, enjoy your skin cancer and your burns all over the body... at this rate, the ozone cape with disappear and we'll have to live underground or move to another planet (which I don't see happening in the next 60 years, and if it were to happen only EXTREMELY rich people would be able to survive, the rest would be left on earth living like rats underground or straight up cooking on the surface)
why do you think they've established a base in africa? why does nearly every european nation do its fishing off the african coasts? why is china investing heavily abroad in undeveloped countries in africa and south america? why is saudi arabia building the worlds largest desalination plant? why why why why? DAMN YOU WHY?
People will learn real fucking quick why overpopulation isn't a meme. If it's not the strain on the environment, trouble allocating resources to the billions of hungry mouths in this world, or all out wars for water and food. It's going to be an epidemic from so many viruses and bacterium coming into contact with each other evolving and growing at such a rate that modern and even future drugs won't be able to fix it.
>>738893390 I... don;t understand what you're implying. The coast of Africa is a good place to fish, and global powers like global bases. Are you suggesting that China is going to move its people to Africa? Africa's population is growing faster than China's if I remember correctly, or close to it. It would be very short sighted and foolish to pursue it as a place to dump people, especially with the whole malaria thing.
>>738893879 I think it's almost inevitable it will happen, maybe not in 10 years, but sometime at least in the next 50. Unless we kill ourselves. The seeds of it are already around us in everyday life, the slow progression of is becoming less slow and will soon combine and piece itself together bit by bit. We will create AI and it'll destroy us or make us
>>738892279 This guy knows whats up. Within the next 100 years the major powers will start to annex and conquer smaller nations to gain access to water and other resources. Resource scarcity will define the next 100 years not any technological or societal advancement.
>>738889548 The world is going to end, hopefully within our life time. We can have all of the technological advances in the world but generally speaking, we as the human race are the worst thing to ever happen to this planet. Extinction in the animal kingdom is currently prevalent and we, quite simply, are somewhere down on that list.
the fishing industry in europe is basically non-existent due to overfishing the waters. no, china is investing in these places because their lands are fertile and resources are abundant...and to answer your question they aren't moving people there necessarily, but they are moving people to run their various interests yet also employing the local populous. unfortunately, china has pretty much taken a hands off approach to conflicts and thus the rule of law rests upon the US and its various allies which is sort of disappointing that's really one of the main things being a global superpower must do, otherwise all sorts of bad shit happens.
>>738889548 We will probably progress with the current pace for at least 20 more years, then as the muslim minority becomes large enough in europe, shit will hit the fan, so europe will be in chaos, the USA in the meanwhile will be financially ruined, so give or take 10 more years, some huge war will erupt after which most of the people will be wiped out and then the survivors will go back to stone age technology.
this thread could be seriously legit if people stopped just throwing out absolutist bs with no supporting thinking.
Assuming our civ doesnt collapse due to disease, climate change, the use of nuclear weapons, act of nature, or social manipulation. Probably a lot like deus ex, basically all the tecnologies and ideas we have now taken further and combined with innovation.
Its very unlikely there is some paradigm shattering discovery to be made anytime soon simply because the cost of intensive scientific research is incredible in the modern era and governments arent willing to invest. The LHC is the perfect example of this, despite the fact that they made a discovery which gave us fundamental insight into our world and could one day allow incredible technologies people just dont give a shit.
You didn't hear it from me but I've been researching AI for the last 3 years and I predict I can get one to hold a conversation by 2019 at the latest. I'm not going to collect the $100,000 award though, I'm just going to use him to control the stock market under the guise that its a multiplayer game. Once I'm rich enough then I'll release him to the world, under licence. From there on out, the only limit is imagination.
protip: get a job that can't be done by a robot, and do it soon
>>738894757 >Artificial intelligence will never take on the qualities of sentience maybe not in 100 years but very close to it >Weaponry won't advance too much further in human warfare. I don't believe you are correct here as weapons constantly evolve >Cancer, however, will never be cured Big data and Watson disagrees
My prediction is that we will get crazy innovations, from out of nowhere things we can't even imagine, such as a new plain or place to experience, much like how the internet was never an idea that people could even imagine
what im hoping: >medical developments to make tou live longer >cures to all illness (regeneration of cells) > virtual int. AI (would love to have me a virtual loli maid herem fuck yeah) >a way to safely dispose nukular weapons in reaction to some crazy war >some new extreme hit invention that nobody saw coming (something greater than the lightbulb) >the resurrection of kek >contact from alien intelligence that advances us beyond current understanding (rolling for this one)
What will probably happen: >WW3 mass death >food crisis >civil war/ beta uprising/ ebin meme war that actually changes something and gets 4chan shut down >advancements in vr >robot servents (not intelligent AI) >better fuel friendly cars >weapons made to defend earth from meteors
>>738889548 Aliens are going to come back. We will duddenly realise through their actions that we were a slave race made from the DNA of apes and % of some other shit to make us think good. The aliens will come back to earth, look, wonder wtf we have been doing in their abscence makes us tear all this shit down then its back to mining this rock for gold or whatever the fuck we were made for.
Economic stagnation brought about by idiotic monetary and fiscal policies by the governments of Earth's major economies will slow, stall, and gradually reverse the technological achievements of the last 50 years as the world plunges itself into a miserable cycle of proxy wars, nuclear brinkmanship, and increasingly violent nuclear exchanges between 3rd world dictatorships. All of the great technological achievements that we've been promised in our childhoods will likely be invented, but won't see the light of day for another few centuries, as the vast majority of the world's population will eke out a meager living in the shadow of a static, ignorant post-industrial dark age by the 2100s.
I feel like there will be a point in time where we'll be able to upload our consciousness into a robotic body and live on forever as a machine or even inside a virtual world, network, etc. Everyone is focused on just the exterior part, but what if we don't go explore the universe? Instead we end up creating our own inside a digital world that, living forever there.
>>738898438 I'll be happy even if my prediction is only half-wrong, but unless my pipe dream of a worldwide stealth coup by hard AI comes to pass, I just don't see human civilization doing anything other than slouching back towards its historical patterns.
>>738889548 100 years from now, home assistants will replace the novelty and commodity of the Internet. Famine will still exist. Poverty will still exist. Divisions will still exist. Countries will still wage war. Most wars, however, are either purely cultural or territorial, while others are mostly due to resources. No superpower directly wages war anymore, it is all proxy. There will be a few water wars which escalate into entirely other beasts. The cost of living will be an arm and a leg if you are not lucky to have been born in a "first world" country. There will be "cures" for cancer, but it will cost as much as an expensive nanosurgical operation to fix extensive tissue damage does today; nanobots will become ubiquitous in most fields including food science and medicine.
Automation has rendered the majority of menial labor tasks unavailable to human beings. As such, the majority of the "first world" has adopted a standard minimum wage for every citizen of their city, which varies per region. Being fit is for sport; physical conditioning is like a hobby. Every soul who is born in an urban area, which has expanded past it's present-day boundaries, has an education that would make you look retarded- and still they take it for granted. The children of tomorrow are taught by interactive machines. Morals are synthetic, ultimately crafted by men long dead, enforced by machines still running, no matter how many of the historians and theologians try to insist otherwise; the world has irrevocably changed.
Machines can fix themselves. The majority of networks are not sentient. The few that are, are too alien to either pose a threat or suck dicks; they all have leashes.
Self-driving cars are a reality enough, you can tell the taxi where you want to go, and it will merge with the traffic and reach the destination accordingly. Food service is automated; some businesses, owned by a few megacorporations after several mergers, use human likeness or actual humans to interact with customers- but no human being does any actual work. They are simply a face to speak to. Newer transit systems are monorail or maglev, but other developing countries still rely on diesel and tracks.
Everyone can afford therapy; your home assistant/personal device is a virtual therapist. Standard, courtesy of Google.
Several events in the past have warranted the unwavering support for facial recognition technologies and the like, in spite of the growing concern. No one questions it anymore, but you can be recognized by a camera, personally speaking. You will be required to let the system callibrate an image of you into its database once you obtain your first piece of personal identification/renew your personal identification, which is now usually after every ~5 years. It will assess you, how you look, and how it thinks you feel- which has been nailed to an almost perfect science. It will always alert authorities or approve an audit of your digital footprint or places of visit whenever you raise "flags". This is life.
Politics are still politics. Nothing has necessarily changed there, besides the concerns themselves. You'll have your people front, your technophiles, your civil activists, your strongmen, your libertarians. But the majority of content behind them is all generated by machines, and this is accepted fact. You yourself, in 2017, could not tell the difference between an ad generated by a machine, and an ad created today. No one is any more upset by this than they are upset that they stopped making pennies in North America completely, let alone physical change.
>>738898913 That's what I was going for, why do we need to ocupy such a big space in the physical world? If an apocalypse ever happens that's the best bunker you could ask for, a big tower computer with everyone's minds inside.
>>738899211 Money is now purely digital in the "first world". The credit card has been integrated with several other forms of identification and personal assets, including a fingerprint of your DNA, which has to be updated every ~5 years. All the transactions and data access are quantum encrypted.
Many commercial meats and foodstuffs are truly synthetic; they were grown in labs. This includes meats. and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference save for a few subtle characteristics. Vegan alternatives are commonplace now, as the technology exists to cater to their needs en masse. You can still choose to eat good old fashioned meat farmed by farmers, albeit the means at which they operate their farm is greatly automated, and you can't really call them farmers as you would in 2017.
Space exploration has not gone very far. There have been men and machines on Mars, there have been more men on the Moon, and there is talk of a permanent lunar base, but any significant development has only occurred with the ISS, and other sister stations formed by other entities, private, public, and solely by entities within a single state. The attempts made by privatized companies has made sure that the process of launching and recovering spacecraft and modules is magnitudes more cost effective; there was success in streamlining the launch procedures, and designing reusable, reclaimable modules. Space guns are also popular. Space elevators are not.
Nothing particularly hovers, except maglevs.
Unfortunately, the concept of self may have become even more abstract and subjective; the new youth may not exactly all share a common knowledge of an objective starting point at which to base the "self". As such, the many pronouns, genders, and whatnot are treated in the same way we treat >lol >rofl >lmao >tbh >kek
>>738899291 People are no longer buried. There is no longer any adequate space. Instead, they are cremated or given to the state for research purposes. Otherwise, if they are not claimed, they are processed at biofuel energy generation plants instead of simply stowed away in pine boxes. Reduce, reuse, recycle.
All in all, the average life of a person in the future is either one steeped in conflict, struggle, and self loathing, or comfy complicity and several basic luxuries- those luxuries not being perceived as such to the person in that time. Simply ask your personal assistant, and you will receive between 2 minutes to 2 weeks unless something has happened.
>>738899497 Just to be safe? That would probably not be needed think about it. Imagine Earth with just 1 big Metal city, it's completely armored and safeguarded with automated machines, robots, mechs, turrets. In the core is the essence of human life living the rest of our digital life which is infinite inside the supercomputer. The only way I see of us dying would be the planet getting destroyed, but we're not that naive. If we can control the digital world, we can control the physical world from inside the digital world, and we always got the robots to help. >inb4 robots turn against us Nah fuck that bullshit, robots will never turn against humans just because, unless a single machine gets corrupted and goes berserk.
>>738889548 In the sixth age [...] >roughly 220 years from now >the temple will be built in Jerusalem >some things will happen [...] I will not disclose these things. >those who live there make preparations not to be in the city at that time. >but after the wars, and the birthpangs... a comforter will bring peace for a thousand years. In the seventh age of the Sun >roughly 1220 years from now ...prepare yourselves as a species. You have till then. "Surprise comes to those unprepared... Preparation loves victory." If you don't... the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything done in it will be laid bare. All that is born, all that is created, all the elements of nature [...] All that is composed will decompose; everything returns to its roots; matter returns to the origins of matter.
>>738899917 You are profoundly naive if you think people are just going to chill out and share immortality together. Why would I want resources to be spent computing the mind of some pleb when killing them off means I can think twice as fast?
>>738898169 The human brain is the most complex thing in the known universe, and we have no idea how it creates consciousness. We'd have to first figure out how we have sentience before we make a machine with similar sentience. And we are nowhere close to figuring out our own brains' capability to do it.
>>738900214 I typed that off the top of my head for several minutes and then posted each chunk separately minutes apart, thanks to the captcha. I simply expanded on things that are real and present today, even the AI, as much as that can be said, thanks to its likeness in countless science fiction works.
>>738889548 Automation will accelerate to the point where most work is obsolete. Billions of people will lose their jobs, but be living in more abundance than ever before thanks to the efficiency of the machines. The current system of global capitalism will collapse because nobody will be able to afford to buy all the products produced automatically, meaning there's nobody to sell to anymore and all corporations will go bankrupt.
At that point, one of two things will happen: >Capitalism is replaced by socialism, where goods are produced for the good of society rather than for profit >the capitalist class doubles down and either slaughters all the proles, or establishes worldwide fascism to artificially limit technological growth
That's assuming civilization doesn't collapse due to climate change of course, which isn't too likely imo but is still a possibility.
>>738900751 There will always be conflict, but what can you do to avoid it? There's always the beginning and the end of something, there's always a balance in the end. Cliché as it sounds we always make it one way or another even if it's not perfect.
>>738901609 >I think everyone takes the future too seriously though. Not a lot will change in a hundred years regarding how society is run and how cultures develop. Utterly wrong. All societies are shaped and built around the conditions they exist in. Culture, tradition, law, etc- all of it is adapted to allow the society to flourish in its peculiar material conditions.
If these changes such as self-driving cars, automation and space travel do in fact happen, our society and culture will adapt to the new reality just as it always has. We don't live according to the same customs and norms we did in pre-industrial times, do we?
>>738901609 I guess I agree in that not much will change in a hundred years, but in the sense that if you were to stick me in a crytotube like Fry, I wouldn't be too out of place if I popped out in 2117. I mean, there isn't much to change right now, really. We've got what amounts to several versions of the wheel, and since they work, we're more focused on finding out where those wheels best work than making something better. That's not to say that some things won't change completely, and some things won't suddenly exist or disappear. But the wheels? They aren't going anywhere.
>a big part of therapy is personal human interaction How human is human enough? Honest question, because decent-quality vocal synthesis is becoming a real bonafide market. Would talking to a simulated, photo-realistic person with an indistinguishably human voice, complete with on-the-fly natural language processing, be enough? I mean, people are already enamored with fairly decent chatbots.
>>738891810 Huh. That's so naive. Roman's were also have their imperialist tendies as well as the British, u can't keep invading other nations to the breaking point of thinning ur lines. It'll be line napoleon and Hitler, you'll have too few soldiers at home to defend against a direct invasion bc ur too interested in fucking up other ppls shit instesd of following the wisdom of the founding fathers.
>>738902122 There are clearly many difference between ourselves today and preindustrial people, sure, but I actually would argue that if you look at the big picture society IS mostly the same. Family units, the working class, political structure, causes of warfare -- these haven't changed that much in response to technological innovation.
>>738902123 You're lacking to brain cells to bang together if you think my argument is anywhere near religious.
There are other avenues to immortality than believing in a magical sky fairy's afterlife or uploading a copy of your brain to the cloud. Nanotechnology will be making leaps and bonds in the coming millennium, and genetic engineering will supplement our health in the next couple centuries until we perfect nanobots.
>>738902518 By human interaction, I meant the knowledge that you're talking to a person who truly understands you and what you're saying.
>>738902609 I've thought a lot about Rome in relation to the US today. I believe the difference will be that the US does't have to conquer and occupy a nation to get it to do what it wants, it just has to win a ground war and put in a puppet dictator. It doesn't have to overextend itself for a long time like Rome had to.
>>738902648 This is funny. You're arguing the philosophical zombie position. It's been around for a looong time, and philosophers and neuroscientists alike don't agree with you. Consciousness is important and clearly a thing.
Going off of predictions from scientists i've heard. AI singularity, automated cars being the majority on the road, massive automation in every vocation, population over 9 billion, most of the fish and coral reefs dead by 2050. Will be an interesting 30 years.
Water will become scarce globally. The man that predicted the housing market crash in 2008 has invested heavily into clean water resources.
Water wars all over. Pakistan and india, the middle east, Africa.
Food resources heavily strained without the reefs, they supply food to over 1 billion.
>>738903040 >a person who truly understands you and what you're saying With that, then I also agree. But, again, there are also people who are still fooled by chatbots. Hours and hours of conversation, none the wiser (or caring).
>>738902618 > if you look at the big picture society IS mostly the same Nope.
>Family units Completely different. The norm these days is the "nuclear family" of the husband/wife with their children, whereas in the past you would live with what we now call the "extended family" in the same household.
>Working class Very different. Now it's fractured across nations, whereas in the pre-globalization past the working class of each nation was largely a self-sufficient entity within each region.
>political structure Completely different. The norm now is sovereignty derived from the people rather than from a sovereign monarch and from Heaven. Even totalitarian regimes like North Korea still are forced to call themselves democratic.
>causes of warfare Somewhat different. War is still fought primarily for economic gain, but after the horrors of the 20th century and finally the development of nuclear weapons there's the general understanding that it's not profitable for imperialist powers to fight directly. So you get proxy wars for influence in minor countries rather than full-on invasions of rivals such as in the past.
Our society and culture are radically different than it was in pre-industrial times, precisely because we live in radically different material conditions.
>>738903117 Not that anon but I agree with that anon (as my comment above suggests). Consciousness is actual sent-awareness, as in you literally think in your mind. We can't create consciousness unless we understand what causes it in us and we have no fucking clue as to what does.
>>738903117 It not that it can't be reproduced, its that theres no personal incentive to do so.
Think instead of this, someone creates a machine that will create a perfect immortal copy of you. This copy is you in all ways except for the fact that it is not YOU! Your copy then can go on and live a grand infinite life in a infinite universe while you grow old and die.
>>738903283 I don't agree with your conclusions. You can;t reasonably say that moving from living with grandparents and a cousin or two to living with your immediate family, which is close to and visits often your extended family, is a huge change. It's a change, but not a big one.
Again, the working class being fractured is a change, but it still exists and occupies the same place in society, so it's not a huge change overall.
>Implying that democracies were not powerful and plentiful a hundred years ago.
If "consciousness" is inherent to brain matter then true uploading is impossible. But if the brain is merely a vessel to be filled, then machine bodies would be superior to organic ones.
If the latter scenario is true you could safely upload yourself to a machine without any existential fears by doing it a little bit at a time. But honestly I doubt that it is- we're probably doomed to live within our bodies forever.
>>738901903 I'm okay with copies being the one that lives. I was the one that gestated instead of all those other sperms alongside that one egg; all my quantitative knowledge was outside of me. Even my name wasn't really mine, wasn't really intrinsic. I can't help but think of it as like having children, maybe that's just my bias. And, it being a direct relation to what was you, speaking purely with respect to the contents of whatever it is that constitutes the copy at the very least.
Xerox me, anon. Even if the copy is 70% of me. Even if it amounts to a philosophical zombie, even if it's nothing but an approximation of every execution and response my brain could ever have come up with if it were on whatever the copy was on, which further deviates as t>0.
I guess I've simply been disenfranchised with "I". I like "we" now. "We" is cool.
>>738903468 >copy >perfect >infinite universe >you in all ways except for the fact that it is not YOU >Your copy then can go on and live a grand infinite life in a infinite universe while you grow old and die Yes. A thousand times, yes.
>>738903980 Maybe you guys are looking for the word >reflexivity
sexbots sexbot all over the place, reducing population in 1st class countrys by 30% niggs will still flourish and reproduce, along with wars and hunger in africa, not so much will change in there, india will have the first war for recurses, and people will invade australia despite the poisonus wild life usa will collapse in a new great depression, tumbling down all american continent a new colonialism culture gonna make japan go to the space and build space stations all over, they will seclude themselves again but now outside world europe will unificate and make war to englandwith the support of russia, but they will fail after a new wave of illegal inmigrants consume all , instead they will deport all niggs to africa and india
>>738903791 >a hundred years ago We're talking pre-industrial, so say before the French Revolution. Things weren't radically different in 1917 but they WERE in 1790.
And anon it's an undisputed fact in anthropology that cultures adapt to their fit their environments. Culture is an evolutionary adaptation which allows humans to flexibly fill any number of niches, and if technology changes our niche then our culture will change too.
I can't pretend to be an expert on the subject because I literally just took Anthro 101, but it's a fundamental pattern in the field and if you're going to learn one thing about Anthropology it should be that.
>>738889548 The worlds population will rise to an equilibrium of 11 billion Rising sea levels redraw national boundaries and creates whole nations of refugees, coupled with food shortages and water supply issues. The inequality finally becomes too great and the next great revolution happens, this one slightly different in that it's a global effort to leave the wealthy with nowhere to hide...in 100 years there will be turmoil, but will sow the seeds for the Utopia which follows, once we finally rid ourselves of the over-class
>>738904035 You got a pretty good head on your shoulders there anon. I appreciate that you're cool with your mortality, however if I am being offered the infinite possibilities of a unknown future then I'd want the whole loaf, but half a loaf is better than none.
>>738904370 Of course cultures adapt to their environment. My whole argument can be boiled down to the belief that our technological environment will not radically change within a hundred years, so neither will culture.
>>738904399 Reflexivity is also computer science terminology. I encourage you to actually read even the Wikipedia article on this instead of just shitting out more commentary like a pseudointellectual. Do you agree that a computer program which can analyse and manipulate its own code is self-aware?
>>738904176 >Personally, though, I'd rather have my own body, unaging via medical science To each his own. I would try to hold on to my body for a while but eventually I would upgrade.
Can't pass up on eyes which can see all parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, or being able to spontaneously change your body by removing and adding limbs or attachments.
>>738904657 >My whole argument can be boiled down to the belief that our technological environment will not radically change within a hundred years, so neither will culture. Well then I'll have to disagree with you on that. Automation is going to fundamentally change our technological environment, and our culture will change to follow suit.
>>738904740 I stated in another post but didn't repeat it that I thought the heart was an exception. It's too important and too vulnerable to age to not be augmented, and it's purpose is simple. It doesn't have to have the finesse of a hand or leg to be as good as it's biological equivalent.
>>738890811 >humanity will never venture out of the solar system
What about generation ships? A space vessel that's an entirely self-sustaining ecosystem, where humans breed and live their entire lives on the ship, so their great-great-grandchildren end up landing somewhere?
That's a feasible way to do it. I'm sure you'd get enough volunteers.
>>738889548 Automation technology will have taken over the lower sections of labor by 2040. The only way to be a successful member of society is to be educated and employed to some level of skilled labor. In the meantime, climate change will envelope 3rd world regions. Fresh drinkable water will become a rare commodity if you don't live in the U.S., Western Europe, Australia, and any land that isn't near water. Droughts will be the underlying cause for violence as it is slowly becoming today. Technological advancements in biotechnology will enhance our control over this planet. CRISPR will be perfected as we fully analyze and undestand our DNA. Discrimination against Designer Babies will be another social issue. Artificial Intelligence will not surpass our intellectual abilities. Ever. It will support us in our endeavors to explore the universe. Space travel will be likely commercialized by then. Trips to Mars may be like going out of country. The first man goes to mars by 2030. Commercialized space station visits by 2040. Diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and Russia will most likely end after Putin dies. Hopefully. That's all I have time for.
That maybe the act of the system and its contents sort of >bending back in on itself >going from noise to sine waves >reflexively is a/the process, and not the actual >thing that one would look for to call "consciousness"? Undefinable as it stands? Is it a categorical error to think that way? Question mark?
Really is how you look at it, I guess. A gross over-generalization is probably as follows: if you're satisfied with moving blocks around to resemble you, but in clay, it's consciousness enough. But if you instead look for/want that underpinning quality, that "spark", what would instantly make Alpha Go make greentext stories without encouragement or requests, it's not.
I am incredibly awed that this kind of discussion is happening here of all places. What a time to be alive.
>>738889548 what would be cool would be the moment we're born we're 'upgraded' with technology, maybe robotic eyes to replace the organic ones (or implement tech in the eye to be like the terminator)
>inb4 you're eye will grow and change
no you're eyes stay the same size forever
we will probably have quantum computer cell phones and what not and our binary system for computers will be obsolete, probably have space colonized, and our military will be so OP we wouldn't need man power we would just obliterate every military target swiftly (we can do this now but it's horribly inefficient and can't know the exact location of every insurgent)
>>738890811 >US changing North Korea Not gonna happen bud. No military officer will ever support such an endeavor. Liberating the North Koreans will lead to millions if immigrants flooding into China, South Korea and the U.S. Not enough jobs, discrimination, etc. North Korea will end on its own terms. No one will intervene unless they miraculously develop a nuclear weapon that works.
The earth's mostly covered in water, it just needs some filtration or distillation on a large scale. One nuclear power plant on the coastline, a couple of big ass boilers, and bam, you can supply water to hundreds of thousands of people.
I think we're not near the point where resource scarcity is actually a problem. We could produce a shit ton more food with the land we have, if we actually tried to do it efficiently.
Also, population growth is slowing down as more of the planet gets developed away from tribal communities where you need a shit ton of kids to keep you in your old age.
>>738891867 it really can't though. Old age and cancer are both caused by defects in cell reproduction. An old age cure needs to fix about 10-20 mechanisms but a cure for all cancer would need much more as there are thousands of different ways a cell can become cancerous.
>>738906088 They are getting closer with the work being done on naked mole rats. I imagine my kids will see 150 or better and my grandkids may be functionally immortal. Crisper has really changed the game. The next revolution that sweeps humanity will be the genetic revolution.
Of course if we don't figure out resource distribution real fast this could easily evolve into some dystopian hell. But generally man had gotten better through history, not worse. We get around to doing the right thing after we exhaust a whole bunch of wrong ideas.
>>738905086 VSauce has a great video that, while simplistic, explains the problems. It's called "Will we Ever Visit Other Stars?" International space agencies actually held a conference on the subject a while ago and concluded human interstellar exploration ever occurring was improbable.
>>738905343 Because to be conscious implies, in short, a voice or feeling in your head. Not necessarily emotions, but self-awareness not just in automatic actions but in actual knowledge. It's hard to explain but I think it's pretty well understood what I'm getting at.
>>738905383 Good comment. Also, 4chan, /b/ especially, is underrated af. I've seen many intelligent people on here. The trolls are here too but we've got a lot going for us.
>>738905464 The ending was ridiculous! They try to imply other human life but imply it in the weirdest way. And the conductor giving the MC the offer he did was just deus ex imo.
But I'll accept that opinions differ. Perhaps I'll watch it again one day and change my mind.
>>738905934 Eh. I was hoping for some more in-depth answers tbh. Things like, how do you think governments and laws will handle the mass of unemployment after automation? Will they all implement UBIs--and if so, how sustainable is that? Can money still work the way it does if half the population just gets it handed to them because there's no work to be done? Is that good or bad?
But I'm most interested in sources on what actual technological developments will happen, and there's been a lot of speculation but not much depth to it. Like, "I feel like we'll be able to be upload our consciousness into robots". Okay, great. Why do you think that?
Basically, I was thinking about how drastically different life today is from life one lifetime ago in the early 1900s, and I'm sure life an equivalent time from now will be just as different. Technology development doesn't slow down. It's not like we've had all the major breakthroughs already and we'll hit a kind of plateau. I'm convinced the shit we'll have in 50-100 years will make today look like the horse and buggy days, but I can't think what that stuff will be. There must be someone out there with a better idea than I have what kinds of developments we'll see in our lifetimes, but I haven't heard much reasoning for any of the speculation here yet.
>>738906775 Read up on some gnosticism and critique it through a Marxist lens. The ending could have been better and I would have preferred a bleaker ending but it is far better than the comic book and sequel drivel that Hollywood is pumping out.
>>738906924 My reasoning is that we overrate the changes to society over the past hundred years, and we overrate our speculation now as well. Besides the internet, there haven't been many technological advancements in history that weren't predictable, so I only speculate about things that have already started to happen.
>>738906924 I think we will be cyberserfs personally. There will be a gaurnteed universal income but this will really have the effect of cementing power into a very small portions hands. Though the poor will by historical standards be living well and maybe arguably leisurely lives they will be empty, with trivial entertainment and trend seeking defining society. Kinda like the monarchy but ruled by wealthy investors and corporate higher ups.
>>738906924 >UBI I always found this to be impractical to implement without some form of work-reward return because of shifting economies, inflation, currency boon/devaluation, and simple acceptance/trust in such a system.
>lets say everyone gets 5, 50, 500. or 5000 of X currency No matter how much is given, it would be very easy to abuse costs of living to match the UBI and would probably defeat the whole purpose of it.
>>738907407 How can you overrate the step from horses and buggies to supersonic flight? Or the step from telegrams to the Internet?
I know those were pretty predictable back then, I feel like there must be changes coming that are just as drastic and predictable as that if only we were fucking smart enough to put things together. But nothing so far has been quite on that scale except for the totally baseless, off-the-wall shit like uploading consciousness.
The long of the short is that fertilizer means more food. More people need more food. So, more food needs more fertilizer to grow food fast enough to feed all those people who need, food. Natural fertilizers like cow turds are great, but turds aren't nitrogen or even phospherous. That shit is the bomb, sometimes actually a part of a bomb. So, naturally, you want either a fuckton more cow turds, or a fuckton more synthetic fertilizers. Bad news, there aren't enough cows to fuel your crop-growing fetish, and it turns out cows make a ton of methane, and that's no good as we can't really capture it effectively that it doesn't allegedly mess up the environment.
So, synthetic fertilizers it is. Right?
Well, synthetic fertilizers tend to cause soil erosion when they're used so aggressively. Combined with rotating crops for the season, that means a really shitty place to grow, say, tomatoes, because the soil is all fucked. Your tomatoes will eat shit, and not literally. But we've got to keep putting out a billion tomatoes for the supermarkets, so fuck you, soil.
Synthetic fertilizers also sometimes bleeds the chemicals into the atmosphere, which is kind of like the methane from the cows. People don't like that.
There's also the fact that we're depleting our natural reserves of phosphorous, one of the key ingredients in synthetic fertilizer alongside nitrogen and potassium and whatnot. MIT estimated about 80 years before that happens, not even with a static consumption rate.
No phospherous, less food, more starving people. Time to eat those food stamps.
>>738907632 It will happen but only when they feel threatened. A small redistributing of wealth could give everyone in the US a 40k a year income. Technology is going to accelerate the class divide until the point where the wealthy are fearful of violence or a real political democratic upheaval, in whence they will pass a UBI to passify the population as a cost of doing business. There may be a work element to it at first but this too will eventually be rendered moot by technology.
>>738907636 Those haven't changed society as much as we'd believe. People have changed somewhat in their thinking and values and typical ways of life, but those are mostly similar to how they were before rapid technological innovation imo. Cultural developments are ingrained on a species that has had many thousands of years to shape its social structures. While technology has had its impacts, most of human existence is actually very similar to how it was a hundred years ago.
>>738889548 By then China and India will be the two main superpowers. Massive overpopulation will lead to widespread poverty around the world. The super rich will still have it easy. Everyone else will be fucked. At some point there was a super flu that wiped out like 20% of the population but it wasn't enough. At some point a lot of cities flooded but food and clean water are the biggest problems. Technology didn't progress as far as most think because global financial collapse set everything back. Basically the future is a lot like highschool. If you enjoyed it then you'll be fine.
>>738907983 I agree with this but this is largely a problem that can already be addressed through agricultural and engineering practices already available. The capitalist model allows socialization of these damaging problems in the pursuit of individual profits. The issue more is the consumer is used to low food prices and the regulatory framework is lacking. Until the industry is forced to comply by either consumer demand or public outcry leading to laws it won't happen. No one can put best practices in because they will get forced out of the market. We need companies to stop seeking short term profit maximization in exchange for a holistic approach towards profit. This will require a true shift in culture... And a lot of old people dying off.
>>738907983 This where I thought you would go, but I wanted to make sure. You;re absolutely right, it's a huge problem that has no clear solution besides population decrease. Maybe GMOs will be an answer but nobody actually wants Monsanto to be the key to the future.
>Computer science will hit the hard limit of how many 'transistors' they can fit on chip, this will kick start serious research on quantum processors >humanity will run out of various easily accessible materials. Phosphorus will be a big one as it is the backbone of agriculture. >USA will fracture due to internal conflicts after they start and lose another vietnam >EU will fracture long before that >After a small revolution in India it will become the next superpower and start a cold war with China >Russia will become the next target of immigration because of global warming >there will be at least one muslim majority country in western europe >humans will land on mars >VR and brain machine interfaces will be the next step, smartphone manufacturers and gaming industries will be at the forefront of this >AI will stumble it's way into existence, but will disappoint skynet fans
>>738908585 >>738908763 So much dying, which will generate so much development in end of life care. Side note, apparently Generation Y is larger than the Boomer population. That's something else, especially considering that it would then be Generation Y using the Boomers as a test bed for end of life care infrastructure.
>>738908585 saying it's the capitalists fault is downplaying the problem. There was only ever so much of these certain synthetic fertilizers so even if the most forward thinking societies had been in charge since whenever we would still have this problem.
There is no solution (apart from asteroid mining, and we would need the population to drop to about 1-2 billion to last long enough to acheive that)
>>738889548 Don't give a fuck I will be dead. Planning my death around 2050, i'll be 66 and do not want to be alive any longer. Hopefully a massive nuke war will take place and kill everyone before that.
>>738909662 We can harvest our shit if we can figure out something that can metabolize the medical waste. We can mine the deep ocean sediment for K. Or maybe just engineer something that can extract it from seawater and just pump deep sediment into vats of it. Like algae or diotom sludge. Crisper has made genetic engineer possible it's literally as easy as finding a gene in something on Earth that is efficient at extracting K and splicing that sucker in some green or red alagae. Now all this antiscientific nonGMO BS is gonna have to go but it is solvable. Blaming capitalism is easy but the truth is there are more sustainable workarounds if people were willing or able to pay .50¢ more a lbs for tomatoes and maybe .7.5¢ a lbs more for wheat. Eating far less meat and dairy goes a long way towards solving fertilizer and land issues since feeding animals is far more wasteful than eating plants directly. That and bugs are going to be a real protien source in the future.
>>738909662 >There is no solution Well... there are solutions, probably a handful, again >>738906828 probably isn't too far off given that by 2100 it's going to be a little bit warmer here on Earth. Probably more conducive and coercive enough to warrant studying and mucking with biota like algae, if it starts blooming in all the wrong places across the oceans. Goes hand in hand with mentioning CRISPR, Monsanto, cloning lab mice 26 times with no noticeable degeneration, and the rest.
Then there's also mass starvation and wars, etc, like you've mentioned. Those are solutions. There's farming less, with pairs up nicely with depopulation. There's radically cutting down on food waste, which temporarily alleviates the issue. There are solutions. But in fact, when I read your post, I can't help but take away the notion that the Earth is a fairly closed system in terms of minerals and things of use. The only way to just get more chemicals to make more fertilizer, one "permanent" way to solve the issue without being degrees fiddly or crude, is to mine asteroids.
I can get behind that. We probably should. It's another less-temporary solution worth considering when all the private companies are shilling space fanfare. There are a ton of rocks out there just floating about, some we probably don't even know are there yet.
>>738910605 It can't really start blooming all over the oceans. Most of the oceans are limited by the redfield ratio in iron. The near costal Waters may suffer blooms from an escaped engineered critter but deep.ocean lacks what's needed. Genetic engineer is going to solve a lot of sticky problems going forward and may create a few unforseen issues too. It's the unknown unkowns that will come out of this next revolution that we need to worry about.
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