It's that time again faggots. I'll even help you out

Pick one and stick with it only because you'll look like a massive faggot if you switch from the prize.

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Yeah, I wanna switch. This is high school math, what are you, 16?

>>719629947
But you do have twice the chance of winning if you switch.

I'd take a 33% chance of looking like a faggot if it means a 66% chance to win a car

You took your pick at 33.33333r%, your chance is still 33.33333r% regardless, you gain no advantage by switching.

>>719629982
No autistic cartoon poster.
Obviously I understand the problem since I gave the correct answer in the OP.

The thread is about being amused by the 50% people that refuse to believe it even after every possible attempt at explaining it to them is attempted.

>>719630103
Learn bayesian stats and try again

>>719630120
>The thread is about being amused by the 50% people that refuse to believe it even after every possible attempt at explaining it to them is attempted.
sounds boring. well, whatever floats your penis. have fun.

>>719630103
>no advantage
>66% chance you did not choose the car
>66% the car is behind a door you did not choose
>now you know one of those doors isn't the car.
>66% chance you DIDN'T choose the car
>66% chance switching is the car

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>>719630120
So this whole thread was just your shitty attempt at trolling retards?

>we have entered a permanent state of summer

>>719630206
>as I return to my precious trap threads
>that's what floats MY penis

>>719630242
It's not trolling.
I gave the answer.

You are a retard and I suggest you stay and see why it's entertaining.
Even though you'll argue it's 50%

>>719630019

I'll just stroke my neck beard and take a le sip of code red from the hip flask "to play is to live to win is die" then light a smoke bomb and dissappear with a swish of my duster. Checkm8.

>>719630550
Ok.
100% chance of looking like a faggot.

2 choices=50%
It doesn't matter

ITT: a faggot who stumbled across the Monty Hall problem and a bunch of retards who don't understand probability.

>>719631176
>stumbled across
Not seen this thread before faggot?
>newfag trying to exert superiority
I'm not the faggot... everyone else is

>>719629800

it's a famous and well discussed problem.

However, you are wrong to state that you double your chance of winning. You are lifting your chance from 1/3 with your first random pick to 1/2 after changing.

Search the web, it's well explained there.

>>719631843
But that's wrong anon.
And I'd like.you to provide a source that says it's 50%.

You chose from three.
The results will always be out of three.
There cannot be a 1/2 result

Few hours too early.
This thread never works well until Americans are awake

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>>719630550
had a jolly kek at that.
you win the faggot award for this thread mate

If you pick the right door first, you should not switch. There is a 1/3 chance of doing this.
If you pick the wrong door first, you should switch. There is a 2/3 chance of doing this.
Therefore there is a 2/3 chance that switching will win, and a 1/3 chance that staying will win.

EZ

>>719631984

you're right. I googled it. Chances are indeed doubled.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>719631984
not sure if troll......

he gave you the choice of 50/50 option after opening door 3

>>719629800

It is a famous problem and you're right. Chances are indeed doubled.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>719632285
Which was after choosing from 1/3.
The car doesn't magically move to another door.

The door you.choose first can only ever have a 1/3 chance for obvious reasons.

That means 2/3 it's behind a door you.didnt choose.
Opening a door you didnt choose just means it's 2/3 for the one door you.didnt choose since your.first choice.is still 1/3

What if you get a brain injury after they reveal the door, and for some reason the revealed door gets covered or something, and because of the brain injury you forget that there's supposed to be three doors, and then someone just asks you to pick a door and you pick one at random, is there still a 2/3 chance that switching from your original choice (which you don't remember) will have the prize? Or is it now a 50% chance?

Because youre all idiots, lets blow this problem up a little bit. Lets say there are 100 doors. 99 goats. 1 car. You pick 1 door out of the 100. Announcer removes 98 doors guaranteed to have a goat behind it. That means announcer just removed 98 goats from the odds of being picked, but you picked your door while your odds were 99 goats to 1 car. Overwhelming odds are against your door being correct in the beginning, but now you know that the only doors left are your door that originally had a 99% chance of being a goat, and another door which now has a significantly increased chance of being a car. Do you pick your 99:1 odds, or do you stop being a reatard and change doors?

>>719632638
Yes. Because your first choice is still 1/3.
From your now retarded perspective it's 50/50, But it's not in reality because the first choice still happened and nothing has been changed since then.

>>719632638
still 2/3

what nobody ever fucking explains in this thread is that the host will always open a door with a goat because he knows damn well where the car is and he's not opening that shit. So you pick your 1/3 door, with 2/3 chance the car is elsewhere. The host removes the extra goat door, leaving just one goat and car remaining. That's why you switch.

>>719632638
the goats eat you

>>719632976
The thing you say is never explained is clearly stated in the OP image

Two easiest ways to explain why it's 2/3 if you switch

1: How many times does switching win vs how many times does staying win?

Say the car is behind 2. You pick 1, you switch you win. You pick 3 you switch you win. The only time staying wins is if you picked 2 to start with

2: There are 100 doors. You pick one, 98 goat doors are opened. Do you stay or switch?

Americans are waking up soon.
>INB4
But I want a goat
I'm a Muslim
Other door is goats ass
There's another but I can't remember it right now

>>719629800
It's still 50% if the opening of the door isn't a given.

I think. I know it's 2/3.

>>719633158
The opening is given.
Look at the image... it has words in it
You could read them

>>719633201
It isn't. I mean that it's not transparent from before you pick the first door that one will be opened. I've thought for about 8 more seconds, though, and I was wrong. It's always better to switch.

So I think that I understand what you're saying, but there isn't a truely random chance here? I mean, the car is behind one of the doors,and it remains there regardless of the door that the person opens, right? Pls explain, I was put in speshil math.

>>719633042
nice, you're right

brb deleting my account

>>719629800
After the reveal the Bayesian priors are updated, the probabilities are resampled and both remaining doors have a 50% chance.
For retards: Choosing not to switch is still doing a new choice at 50%, whatever door you pick.

>>719633303
It is.
You didn't read the words

>>719633670
Trolltarded?

>>719633670
That's the dumbest thing I've ever seen in a Monty Hall thread.
And I've seen a lot of threads

>>719633426
Yes the car stays where it was.
So first door chosen has 1/3 chance of being the car.

That means 2/3 you did not choose the car.

If there becomes only one does left you didn't choose it must have a 2/3 chance since the door you first chose still has a 1/3 chance.

>>719629800
OP is retatd
Is 1/2 choice if door be removed.
What a dumb

chance is 50% if you switch, not 66%
if you stay, your initial 33% chance stays

>>719635312
But is 66% chance if you switch.
If you agree your first choice remains 33%, surely.you.understand it's 66% you first choice isn't the car?

The only choice left is your first choice (admitted 33%), and what you didn't choose ( which has to be the remaining odds after your.first choice ((admitted 33%))
100-33...=66...

>>719635312
That's wrong

>>719630103
No it isn't.
See the autistic cartoon faggit above you

>>719636409
Yes it is

THE ONLY THING LEFT, IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT YOU PICKED. 2 OUT OF 3 TIMES, YOU PICKED A GOAT. ITS NOT THAT FUCKING HARD.

>>719636709
Caps doesnt make it any truer

>>719630176
Tell it to this fag
>>719633670

When people won the goat, did they actually get to keep it and take it home?

> 3 doors, 1 car
The odds you picked the car to start with are 33%.
If the announcer cannot remove your chosen door, and cannot remove the car, by logic that means the two that are left are the door you picked (which has a 33% chance of being a goat), and a car, which now has a 67% chance of being a car.
So, if you switch your door, you now have a 67% chance of chosing the car, and a 33% chance of picking a goat.
The only way to lose this game is if you picked the car when there were 3 doors.

If you expand it, you can see the difference;
> 10,000 doors, 1 car
If there are 10,000 doors, 9,999 have a goat and 1 has a car.
You choose one, which is a 1 in 10,000 chance of being the car (0.01% chance of getting car)
9,998 are removed that are definitely goat.
The announcer cannot remove your door, and cannot remove the door with a car.
So, the odds you picked the car to start with are 0.01%, and are still 0.01% even with all the other doors gone.
This means that the other door has a 100% - 0.01% chance of being a car - 99.99%
So switching gives you a 99.99% chance that you have switched to the door with a car.
The only way to lose this game is if you picked the car when there were 10,000 doors.

Don't discount your prior knowledge of the problem.

>>719637570
50% you tard

>>719630103
Let's say I have a full pack of cards and say if you pick the right one you win a car, otherwise you win a goat. Then when you pick a card I say I'll take out 50 goat cards leaving just one goat and one car and offer you the chance to switch.

Assuming you'd rather have a car than a goat would you switch?

>>719637782
Doesn't matter its now 50%.
It's like lotto.
You either win or you don't so it's 50/50

>>719637978
No, because your choice can affect my choosing the goat cards

>>719638150
No it can't.
That's like saying your lotto can affect my lotto.
It can't.
I can still only win or lose so it's 50%

>>719638150
Did you really not get the lottto 50/50 part?
You're fighting your allies

50/50 everytime all the time

>>719629800
Oh, this thread again. You idiots dont realize that when you pick a door..YOU ALREADY KNOW THAT A DOOR WITH A GOAT BEHIND IT WILL BE REVEALED, thus its essentially cancelled out, becuse you know 100% that it wil have a goat, you have a 50/50 chance from the beginning.

>>719639722
What a retard.
Everything you said was sounding correct right up until that ending.

>>719639722
>he thinks the car can change doors

>>719639722
HER ARE SOME CAPS TELLING YOU THAT YOU'RE WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I figured the exclamations would fit in with the caps angriness

You need to get more sMart faggit

Monte Halparin should shove his 95-year-old boot up half of your asses.

>>719640677
He can start by halpering himself to my dick.

>>719640916
alright, you got me. I kek'd

>>719630019
Is the double chance worth the embarrassment and regret of switching off the good prize? Everyone you know will never let you forget it

>>719641070
Was too good to resist

>>719632638
What the fucking shit. Do YOU currently have a brain injury. What are you trying to say?

>>719629800
If you switch your odds increase to 2/3

>>719641235
It's double the chance of no embarrassment though.

Is take a 33% chance of being embarrassed for a 66% chance if winning a car.

Nobody's going to give a fuck either way.

>my friends laughed at me because I didn't win a car
If your friends would do this you need new friends

>>719632946
>3 and 100 are the same number
Fuckin kek

>>719641534
I said what is brain I hired from I hired and the brain gets inhuuurred and brain j him and brain injjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjnjjnnnnjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjnnnnnnnnnhhhnnnjjjjjjjjjjjjj

>>719641768
The principle is still the same you fuckin' idiot.

>>719641768
It's the same concept you retard.
1/3 choice, all but one you didn't choose revealed.

1/100 choice, all but one you didn't choose revealed.

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>>719629800

>>719642093
daaaaaaaammmmmmnnnn

>>719633042
But wheres the numbers and math shit saying that he opens that door? How does mathmatics indicate the announcer opens said door. Is it math or a concious decision on how to run the game show. Is the gameshows rules and prizes based on mathmatics or just what stupid people want as a show and prizes.

The question assumes the world works based purely on math and logic. But tump is president, people deep fry candy bars. Asians eat mans best friend, and veggiemite is a thing despite the existence of tastebuds. The world doesnt go by logic and reason.

>>719641986
1/3 = 33.3 repeting
1/100 = 1.00
> same concept
Kek even the ratio doesnt add up.

>>719642440

>1/100 = 1.00
>1/100 = 1.00
>1/100 = 1.00
>1/100 = 1.00
>1/100 = 1.00

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>>719642275
Numbers and math?
Can't you read?
Pic related to explain your stupidity

>>719642440
Focus on what you didn't choose.

Take your time and really think about it before you post again

>>719632077
It bothers me that people need more than this.

>>719643043
Prepare to be bothered
Americans are waking up.

>>719643319
Americans are smart you cocky fuck.
We will dominate this thread saying it's 50/50 because we aren't fucking dumb like you europoors

>>719643673
I'm conflicted on how to respond to this

>>719643673
> Most retarded post so far

>>719629800
You can't fuck a car...

>>719642935
How does he know the goats posision though

>>719644622
He works for the gameshow.
He can look before you even get there...

Or you could realize how is irrelevant, only that he does know matters.
You can see that here....
>>719642828

>>719629800
There are gifs of people fucking both, so does it really matter which you win?

>>719644966
Post gifs or gtfo
Also accept webm or gtfo

>>719644966
>both
Goats and cars?

>>719644966
Claims inferior gifs
Won't post them.

So they don't exist and you're just a lying faggit then?
What a surprise.

50%

>>719643673
We 're smrt you faggit
Fire me in real life and see what hOpen

>>719629800
It's obviously 50/50 after a door is removed

This question is stupid and I'll tell you why, and even the most stubborn "muh statistics" autist would agree.

Now. here is what is going down

When you first made your first pick, the chance of winning was 1/3.

When you are offred a choice to change your pick, that means your previous choice had no meaning at all.

now you get to pick one door of 2 instead. if you choose to "stay" on the same door, that just means you pick the same fucking door except this time its a 1/2 chance of winning

ergo, it doesnt matter if you change or not, your chance of winning is still 50% because you made a choice to pick the same door again.

Joke's on you I want the goat!!!

>>719647812
That's retarded.
>your first pick was 1/3
>I open a door you didnt choose
Somehow this magically moves the car.
If the car did not magically move, the first choice is still 1/3.

You're misunderstanding this.
I don't want to call you a retard u less you refuse every attempt at explanation of why you're wrong....

Read the thread and then post.
You will.either understand or be a retard.

The choice is yours.

>>719648171
>inb4'd you dumb fuck

>>719648351

well this is just trolling for the fuck of it

>>719648545
It's truthful fact.
Your ability to understand it is irrelevant.

>>719648545
Eat more dicks and you'll feel better

>>719649071
I don't like dicks

>>719649486
Yes you do homo

>>719648618
Is true.
I am fact. Can confirm

>>719629800
I ask monte which door he would pick. Checkmate.

>>719651158
He knows where the car is.
Checkfail

>>719631103
you daft or something?

>>719652277
I'm super smart.
Are you suggesting you disagree with me?

1 2 3
[Car] [Goat] [Goat]

choose door 1, switching loses

1 2 3
[Goat] [Car] [Goat]

choose door 1, switching wins (read the third bit of orange text in op image to know why, he HAS to reveal a goat that you did not select)


1 2 3
[Goat] [Goat] [Car]

choose door 1, switching wins.

in 2/3rds of possible scenarios, switching wins.

>>719652277
I am daft.
Am also a punk.
I am daft punk.

Bubba dunba bubba down

Googly.ooglt.down
Wanna gonna Google now
Off my doogle.niw.

Wagga Duggan daaaaa
Fikka lilka dilka k ow

>>719653222
Did you do your homework?

>>719652514
You are clearly wrong. Just check the other replies and watch the mythbuster episode about this problem.

>>719653975
> You are clearly wrong. Just check the other replies and watch the mythbuster episode about this problem.

>>719630206
Whatever floats your GOAT

>>719654628
Trap threads float you cock dick penis boat goat

You aren't fooling anyone by giving your dick a codename

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>>719629800
>you double your odds by switching.

This is theoretical but wrong, like a paradox.

The effects of the third door are not physically regressive to the remaining two, even if mathematically one could "prove" it.

Last choice is discrete 50% chance: One door has goat, other not goat.

>>719655152
You are stupid and you should feel bad.

It's been explained too.many times to excuse you

>>719655152
Can be explained further why the math is blatantly divergent from reality.

Pretend you have a token u put at the door.

You place token, a door is opened, goat! U *pick up* token and now place at one of remaining doors. 50% chance.

The seams as above but you *do not* pick up token, but can switch if u want. "2/3 change to win by switching".

Smh

Only mathematically relevant to preten they are not discreet choices, is basically a gambler's fallacy.

>>719655405
Gamblers fallacy. The initial choice doesn't affect the second.

Need data, is there a site that simulates this and tabulates results?

Do u honestly believe the math will be proved if I make one?

File: JmemNwx.png (1MB, 750x1334px) Image search: [Google]

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> HOLY FUCK >

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>>719629800
door 1 is winner

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>>719655405
Also math to it is simple to understand, but is simply one of those times where math and reality diverge. How many times can u divide 1 in half? How many times can u divide 1' in half? I can write (copy and paste tbh) a function that creates a cone of infinite volume but finite surface area, doesn't mean it corresponds to reality.

U are stuck in the matrix taking the "2/3" blue pill my friend. U need to look at reality as it IS, not how u want to pretend it is. Take the 50% red pill.

>>719655822
Yes is do.
Not only because I think you at incapable to write that program, but if you could you would fuck it up and apply random choice to all doors like most retards do when they simulate this problem.

It's already online...
Look it up and learn you are wrong.
Learning is good

>>719656025
oh shi-

>>719656303
>
whats stopping me getting a knife, cutting the blue pill into thirds, same for the red pill, taking two thirds blue one third red? BAZINGA!

>>719655637
So you're saying a door is removed before you choose?

Sure that's 50%.
But that's not the question.
You are dumb and should probably an hero considering how deep your stupidity goes.

>>719655822
Thays not what gamblers fallacy means.
Look it up.
You still won't understand it though.

>>719637570
This, you can actually play the game with a computer sim and see your win chance with switching increase as you increase "n". It was a huge problem in the stats field for a while.

Is this thread a bait or something? I have a phd in mathematics and it's obviously 50%. All of you who try to prove else are just speaking non sense

>>719656303
Toure in the matrix thi kg yor dick is is 7 foot long...
It isn't...
But apparently you aren't stuck in the matrix... there's a way out, otherwise your point would've made no sense.

It still makes no sense...
But no you've been labelled as a kooky button and nobody will take anything you say seriously ever again .

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let's start doing real fucking abstract maths

>>719656980
You are b8.
Shut the fuck up or quit your schooling if serious.

Shut the fuck up

>>719629800
This is true, 33.33333~ then add 33.33333 if you switch doors . That's 66.66666~ if you were only given 2 doors that's 50% . But 3 then a chance to switch after a wrong door is shown gives you an increased odds of the same original percent given .

What happens if you pick a door with a goat inside the car?

>>719657516
instadeath

>>719657516
That isn't in the rules.
And you thought you were so clever.

You werent, you were dumber than a boong.

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>>719657072

>>719657838
Still switch.
You aren't smart enough to do what youre attempting.

>>719657838
Fucking retard

>>719633082
Switch

>>719657413
>then add 33.3333
>add
Do you even know how probabilities work?

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>>719658232
>>719658812

>>719658824
Yes.
The post you replied to actually explained it.

You just said switch....

Why should anyone listen to you over the anon you replied to?

You didn't even say you agreed with him

>>719659337
Still switch.
Have 66% of releasing Nazis.

You really aren't good at this.

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>>719657048
>>719657516
thats a bit too complex but i can explain what happens when you pick a door with the car and mohammad inside a goat.

>>719659766
shit the cars white box cut mohammads dick off

>>719659766
But you didn't pick the door.
You'd have to switch to get that door.

You are REALLY bad at this

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>>719659578
>>719659578

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>>719659993

>>719660101
Every choice wins.
You are so fucking bad at this anon.

>>719660244
Lame cunt riding the balls of someone else who didn't get it right.

You are fucked.
He made something, you stole something.

An hero faggot

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>>719660305

>>719660621
implying im not autistic enough to make both images AT THE SAME TIME.

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what about this one ?

>>719660816
>implying that implyting is autistic

>>719660918
that goat looks like hes about to give some cold hard lovin

>>719661011
>>>/i/mplying-implicating-implying-is-autistic

>>719661115
>>>/r/retarded-cunt-is-retarded

>>719661291
>Roodypoos gonna candyass

>>719660918
Again switch.

Waiting on the jokes on you.. ..it WA test for autus...

You realise they use autists to make those tests right?

>>719661381
If I reference oldfag shit them i am become oldfag.

Nope.... still a faggot

>>719661724
>Implying i was implying i was not new.
>Implying anyone even cares

>>719629800
But I wanted the goats you fuck.

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>>719660918
>>719661548

>>719661928
>implying that implying implies implications.
>stating you're an idiot.
>and nobody cares because nobody cares about (You)

>>719661999
Still switch.

You have had too many attempts now.
Just accept you're a moron and move on.

>>719662548
>Implying i don't know what your really want is a piece of that goats ass, Zaghlool el-Abdo
It was too obvious, my friendo.

>>719662715
I didn't imply any if that.
You should look into your own mind and behaviour to get the answer to that nonsense.

That's where it came from after all...

>>719647812
Wrong.

Don't let your hubris get to you, the chances that you picked the right door on your first try ARE 1/3, but that means that the chance you were wrong is 2/3.

After the host removes one of the wrong choices, you have a new bet, you are betting on whether you were wrong or not. As i just said, the chances you were wrong are 2/3, so you switch because you don't want to go home and fuck a goat.

>>719663087
>Implying

>>719663147
>>719662925

>>719632946
that's actually a really useful explanation... thanks!

>>719663194
What was implied?

>>719663972
implications

>>719662925
>friendo
>euro rapist detected

>>719664009
What implications?

>>719664148
implicative implications

>>719637659
there are 3 choices you start with, so no matter what, one answer is 33%.
You never stopped choosing from 3 doors at the start.
That probability doesnt change, no matter what, as it was made BEFORE the opened door.

The "wrong" door will ALWAYS be opened, out of the 2 remaining doors. Therefor the remaining doors are treated as one door.
That last doors value is 2 doors. aka, the missing 66%

>>719664084
;)

>>719664238
>Implying the choice to abstain from choosing is not a choice of its own
>Implying the simple act of parking the car at door one would break the laws of the universe as we know it.

>>719629800
There is a 100% chance you will win the prize. You just have to pick tge right door.

>>719664234
So you don't know?
Good job faggot.

>>719664422
American education in a nutshell.
>doesn't understand there is more than 1 places he could've parked his car.
Because he's retarded.
Be nice to him children

>>719664238
>>719664422
being autistic aside, honestly, there has to be a better explaination then that.

Saying theres 3 doors, ABC, each door is 33.33333333333333333333333%, when door C is opened, it would be 50/50% if not for the fact that the opening of the door has two posibilites, one, It was the only choice because you chose the goat door, or B, your door does not contain a goat so it could be any door.
because of black magic it is suddenly 33% that your door has a car and the other has 66%

because fuck math

>>719664945
>Implying i am american.
im actually European.

>>719665206
That's makes it worse....
You should know better.

>>719665545
>Im actully not even european i am actually brittish

>>719665090
> because fuck math
Well that explains it

>>719664743
No, i don't know the current implications from the stating of impliers of implications implicated, however i do know the implications of the implications i just implicated upon your implications of my knowing of the state of my implications

>>719665747
I dont care you stupid faggot.
You are retarded and post retarded things hence you should be made fun of.

>>719665868
Makes no sense.
Not at all surprised.

>>719665965
slut i am actually korean jim kong uuuhnnn. ima jizz over ur face pretty boy

A new way to explain it for people who havent understood yet.

You pick a door out of 3.
You have a 33% chance to have guessed right so far.

Now, I give you a NEW option.
You can stay on that door, and open it for you reward,
OR
you can switch off of it, and open up BOTH of the other 2 doors, and get whats behind them.

What I just said, is EXACTLY the same thing as the OPs question.

It's just phrased on a manner to confuse you.
(Heck its actually phrased in a manner to confuse you less than the original version of it.)

>>719665812
but no ill try explain better
first you have 2/3 chance of picking goat, if you pick goat, the host will reveal the other goat door, soif you swap you will pick the car.

If you pick car, which is 1/3 chance and swap u get goat, so swapping is 66% chance. of win

If you choose to stay, 2/3 chance is you choose the goat. 1/3 you get car, so 33% chance of getting car.

That's my more refined argument, anyway.

And for >>719665965
i am actually australian
no lie this time

>>719666102
So I was right and your retarded...
Good job faggot

>>719665090
You are mixing up the number of possibilities behind your door, with the percentage of having picked the right door.

Opening the other door, does NOT remove it from the equation.
It never has. It just helps confirm whats behind the other 2 doors.
In fact, you dont even need to open it to begin with.

If you left it closed, and still didnt know what was behind it, the ending remains, do u switch from the door you choose, or stay on it?

You started with a choice out of 3 options, and then given an option out of 2 options.
How is 1 in 3, and then 1 in 2 stay 50%? that makes no sense.

You have a 66% chance of having picked the wrong door at the start.
If you're allowed to pick other option instead, you swap 33% with 66%.

There's only so many ways we can keep explaining this to you, as you keep changing the situation into something its not.

There is not 2 doors. There is 2 choices. There is a difference.
That 3rd opened door DOES effect yoru 2nd choice.

>>719664422
I never suggested the car couldnt be behind door 1.
You're just making things up at this point.

>>719666800
So, basically, imagine
A is car

You pick B, host opens C, you swap to A. Win (33%)
You pick C, host opens B, you swap to A, Win (33%)
You pick A, host opens B, you swap to C, lose (16.5%)
You pick A, host opens C, you swap to B, loose (16.5%)

Now for not swapping.
Opening the door does not change your choice, so we ignore this
You choose A, you win (33%)
You choose B, you loose, (33%)
You choose C, you loose. (33%)

Or if you really need the door opening for god knows why

You choose A, host opens B, you stick with A, you win (16.5%)
You choose A, host opens C. you stick with A, you win (16.5%)
You choose B, host opens C, you stay with B, you loose (33%)
You choose C, host opens B, you stay with C, you loose (33%)

>>719666800
> Seems to understand it
> claims ausfag status.

What city then Mr ausfag?

>>719667396
Perth mate.

>>719667158
There is no 1/2
cannot be.
Isn't possible.

>>719667158
see
>>719666800
>>719667382
where i cleaned my argument up some more.

>>719667460
What's the time here then?

>>719667593
6:07

>>719667506
Im not saying 50%, im saying 1 in 2, as in the number of options you have when given "Do you switch?" Which is 2 options, both with different percentages of winning. (33% and 66%)

>>719667520
You're argument is still incorrect.
The door that opens, is BASED on your decision when all 3 were closed.
It WILL change, depending on which you picked.

So yes, you need to see every possible combination.

In scenario1, its behind door1, you pick door 1, and you pick stay.

You win: +1

Scenario 2, behind door1, you pick door 2, you stay.

Lose: +1

Scenario3, behind door 1, you pick 3, stay

Lose: +1

now lets change which door its behind, and the 1 win 2 losses remains

again, change it to the last door, 1 win, 2 loses.

Now lets do the same with all 3, but with "Switch"

In scenario1, its behind door1, you pick door 1, and you pick switch.

Lose:+1

In scenario2, its behind door1, you pick door 2, and you pick switch.

Win: +1

In scenario1, its behind door1, you pick door 3, and you pick switch.

Win+1
thats a lose+1 win+2

Repeat with it being behind a different door.

>>719632976
This

>>719667782
He's either a quick googling liar
Or is a fellow perthfag.

Don't come across many of our kind on here.

Im.6059

>>719667520
see
>>719668095
then see
>>719666685

In the end, your only real choice is, do you pick 1 door, or both of the other doors?
You're not actually picking between 2 doors. You're being tricked into thinking its just 2 doors.

>>719668095
> Im not saying 50%, im saying 1 in 2
Stopped reading at that point because you established you are a retard.

>>719642275
The math has already been presented.
You pick 1 of 3 doors.
The presenter offers you both of the other 2 doors.
Would you rather just your door be opened? Or both of the other 2 doors be opened?

People arent very good with word problems, because it adds extra words, making it harder for them to put it into simple numbers.

>>719668095
my scenario is correct. as i said, if you choose goat, (66% chance) his only choice is to open the second goats door, meaning if you switch, you reverse the odds and now have 66% chance of winning.

the 33% chance you get it right on the first choice, branches into two 16.5% chance outcomes where you loose, for a total of 1/3 chance of a loss.

>>719668277
moot did call us the capital of shitposting, i plan to make him proud, he will forever be the owner of 4chan in my heart.

>>719668446
So what you are saying, is that I offer you the option to play a card game, where you have a 90% chance to win, and then a second card game, with only a 1% chance to win, you are not receiving a question, with 2 primary options to choose from?

>>719668593
I got my ISP banned for spamming WWYD threads.
I feel.it was justified.

>>719668593
Ah, I mistook you for another poster saying 50/50, my mistake.

>>719668682
That game is not the game in question.
I don't understand your point.

>>719630550

One interweb to you sir for making me lose it.

>>719668762
Never been banned before, i did however manage to get someone elses ban somehow, even though i have a static ip, for trolling /mlp/ board somehow. Couldn't even appeal it because it was like a view this message before you post sort of ban.

But i do like my shit posting.

>>719667460
You want free drinks?
I have an endless supply.

>>719635540
So there is a 1% chance that the goat is the car.

>>719669107
No, you are just dumb

>>719668922
You said you stopped reading right there, when all i was doing was explaining what i meant when i said there were 2 options. It doesnt mean i think its a 50/50, im saying i think each of the 2 have a different percentile chance to win, that is NOT 50/50

>>719669644
Wrong post idiot.

>>719669107
you know its actually 33.3~, everyone but
>>719669385
is smart enough to know you're trolling.

>>719669706
Nope, I followed the links back to the original post, so im going to have to disagree with you.

>>719669064
I've had many bans.
There's a mid that like WWYD threads.

I'd been spamming them for a while.
One thread started reporting me.
No loss, Happened all the time..

What was interesting was they were all crying about reporting me, then some someone posted that it was all good as I had been banned....
I hadn't been banned yet.

Either he was a mid or he knows a mid because I was banned next post, But there's no way he should've know that.

>>719669818
So your assuming only the same 1 person ever rep lied t your posts?

That's fucking stupid you idiot.

>>719667460
Perthfag
04 07 14 16 13

Do it.

I would choose door 3 and fuck the goat.

>>719671336
Good for you Mr goatfucker...
Why should we care?

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>>719668593
>>719668517
>>719668279
>>719668095
>>719667382

my math i explained here
>>719666800
>>719667382
i made ms paint pic to show it graphically. many pixel.

>>719671021
You know the code faggot.
What'e you got to lose by trying it?

This is called the Mothy Hall Problem and was busted by the Mythbuster's.

You originally have a chance 1/3 chance to win. That means the other two doors are 2/3 chance to win. When one of those is revealed to be a loser, the remaining door (that wasn't chosen by you or revealed) has a 2/3 of being a winner while your original choice retains it's 1/3.

/thread

>>719672102
It was busted decades before mythbusters existed.

>>719672196
No shit, faggot, but it was made famous by them. Way to contribute not a god damn thing.

>>719672102
So you should understand half the thread doesn't care about you and the rest doesn't care in general.

Even though you're correct

>>719672449
>it was made famous by mythbusters
That is so fucking wrong you should really try everything you can to become an hero.

>>719672449
>but it was made famous by them
the monty hall problem was famous long before mythbusters

>>719671021

Perthfag is kill?

>>719629800

Honestly anyone who doesn't get it after the second time you explain it to them is a fucking retard.

>>719673189
Retard bump.

>>719672102
What a dumb cunt.

>>719673343
I think the explaination given lead to the correct answer but the journey seemed overly complicated or incorrect, of which i do not know.

Simply, if you choose the goat (66%), he will open the second goats door leaving the car if you swap.

If you choose the car (33%), he reveals one of the two goats, where swapping will end with a loss.

The explanation "Your original choice had a probability of 33% so the next door must have absorbed the other 66% and the 1% control the rest of the wealth" Is incorrect.

The other explanation "your original choice was 33% so you need to make a new choice to refresh reality.exe to realize its now a 50% chance" Is also wrong, because the host can only choose the goat, and if he could choose a door to show a car, then it would be 50-50 even if you stayed anyway.

No one really explained how the opening of the door had anything to do with the result, someone even said the opening of the door did not even need to happen? wot.

>>719673239
C'mon perthfag..
Surely you are alive?

Also.fuck niggers

>>719674286
Thread, I introduce you to Mr Backwards

The problem is the question -

Do you want to switch. Why not ask "ok this one has a goat - now from what's left pick again"

>>719674732
No it isnt.

>>719671818
>>719674659

>>719667460
Are you alive or dead?
Whats your fear.

>>719670371
the answer still applied, so again, im going to disagree lol

>>719675098
The answer to what?

File: i-dont-always-have-the-time-to-study-but-when-I-do-I-dont.jpg (62KB, 430x528px) Image search: [Google]

62KB, 430x528px

Fucking retards the chance is first 50% on all 3 doors then still 50% on the 2 doors

File: tmp_524-Screenshot_20170121-073831190882931.jpg (521KB, 1246x919px) Image search: [Google]

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>>719675604
Then 50% on the last door

>>719641768
retarded faggot right here

>>719676212
Welcome to 7 hours ago.
Try and keep up.

>>719674439
Scared cunt hey?
No cure for little bitches

>>719671021
>>>719667460
>Perthfag
>04 07 14 16 13
>Do it.
nice phone number there.

Ok, because a tard will eventually pop up
Chance list
>You pick car-less door #1
>Game host shows car-less door #2
1/1
>You pick car-less door #2
>Game host shows car-less door #1
2/2
>You pick car door
>Game host shows any other door
2/3

>>719677420
It's a secret code.
How can that be a phone number?
Is no phone number.... is secret code

>He thinks he's genius now.

>>719678150
> >You pick car-less door #1
>Game host shows car-less door #2
1/1

Game over 1/1
100% to pick car-less door.
That's a shit game.

>>719677420
Try it then faggot
Post results.

>>719678645
Lame faggot is lame as always.
Why so many lame faggots?

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>>719629800
always stay

>>719677420
What you gonna do faggit?
CALL ME?
No you won't because your a loser.

File: door2.png (75KB, 780x427px) Image search: [Google]

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>>719629800
Obviously door 2 because dat sweet ass.

>>719678150
That's not how maths or probabilities work.

>>719679854
Inb4'd
Dumb cunt didn't read the thread before posting..
Here is why you are a retard
>>719633153

>>719680195
yeah i noticed after posting but what's with the attitude?

>implying not rigged

>>719679525
As stated.
You could've but didn't.
That's why you're a shit cunt.

>>719680302
Because you posted before even reading the thread.

>>719680507
people do it all the time

>>719680615
And they are all cancer just like you.
>question answered and self confirmed.