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>Japan is in a recession http://www.japantoday.com/categ

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>Japan is in a recession

http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/what-japans-recession-means-for-the-country

How will this affect out animu?
>>
Better start buying BDs
>>
Not much.
Anime is not pro-cyclical.
>>
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>>117067564
They lift all bans such as incest and lewd loli to appeal to wider audiences and encourage spending.

I can dream
>>
>Shinzou Abe fucks anime and manga even more than it was fucked already
>Shinzou Abe fucks Japan's economy even more than it was fucked already
Is anyone else seeing a pattern here?
>>
Hopefully less series per season so I could have more time for backlog
>>
It's probably helping. Bad times fuel escapism.
>>
>>117067564
less quality and more QUALITY
BDs will contain fewer episodes (from 3 to 2) and wont fix so much the animation
More 15min or less shows will be airing too
More 3D CG anime will be done too
>>
This isn't anything new. Japan is the recession capital of the world. It's almost more abnormal when their economy is doing well.
>>
>>117067564
Less worrisome than the impending war in that region.
>>
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>>117067564
Japan has been alternating between recession and stagnation for around twenty years so probably not much at all
>>
>>117067564
Relax, as long as uncle Sam is strong economically, they'll do just fine
>>
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>Japan’s economy shrank 7.1% in the April-June quarter
>sales tax hike
>7.1%
Who ever could have predicted this?
>>
>>117069150
Hey, the last time Japan got into a big war, the anime and manga that followed were amazing. Maybe Japanese artists just need a little fascism to rebel against to perform at their peak.
>>
>>117068949
>>BDs will contain fewer episodes (from 3 to 2
But 2 is the norm.
>>
Otaku are recession proof. In fact in the 90's during the lost decade, otaku stuff (anime, games, manga, toys) was the one area of growth.
>>
>reforms of labor regulations, the tax system and the health industry, among other areas, to help improve Japan’s competitiveness
Oh boy, I'm really, really glad I'm not Japanese.
>>
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>>117069236
>Shrank 7% in one quarter
Jesus christ
/a/ - Macroeconomics
>>
>>117069236
They're probably not going to do the sales tax hike. Tax hikes on regular consumer spending during a period of economic instability are a bad idea.
>>
Japan is declining.
>>
Japan better do something because while they just keep falling into recessions, ageing, and not having kids, China is getting bigger and bigger economically and having more kids.
>>
>>117069635
Just wait for the bubble to bust, it will be glorious.
>>
It likely means we'll revert from the current 50+ anime per season to the 20+ like it was in 2008 - 2010.
>>
>>117069524
They already did, according to the article. They might delay (not cancel!) a second one.

I wonder how much more expensive everything has become, I'm pretty sure anime & manga sales have suffered because of it. Food > little girl cartoons, so my guess is they just pirate more anime now.
>>
>>117069728
This and turning the yen in toilet paper money, what the fuck was Abe thinking?
>>
>>117069319
There won't be much left of Japan in the wake of WW3.
>>
>>117069401
>>117069236
It was 7% annualized. That means they take the actual growth in the quarter and multiply by 4
>>
What would decensoring all the porn and lowering work hours do to Japan?
>>
>>117069878
Honestly I think the latter point would help a bunch; right now there's so much work there's little play, so spending on nice things is fuck all.

But then at the same time the cost of living is so absurdly high, it's not like that'd be a solution in of itself.
>>
>>117069950
The problem is, they don't have money to spend on nice things.
>>
So everything is back to normal again.
>>
>>117069336
Otakus are the bastard offspring of the economical recession.
>>
More Naruto/Bleach/OnePiece
>>
>>117067564
They either crank out less, or they crank out a shitton more.
>>
>2hu starts to die
>japanese economics starts to die
Give money to ZUN.
>>
Did they ever stop being in recession?
>>
>>117070354
Yes, every once in a while they get in stagnancy instead.
>>
It doesn't really hurt the anime industry any.

>Abe continues raising sales tax, further crippling consumption
>otaku buy anime anyway because muh collections
And the industry keeps on chugging.

Worst case scenario we see a minor scaling back in production.
>>
>>117067564
>The Yen goes down in value
>My hug pillows get cheaper
Get fucked Japs
>>
this is what happens when the population starts aging badly.japan needs to open its borders for immigration.hand rubbing
>>
>>117067564
When is Japan not in a recession?
>>
>>117069693
Thanks god.
>>
>>117067713
They will just ban the latter even more.
>>
>>117070447
banning content will never increase your audience
>>
Is Japan ever not in a recession?
>>
What happened to Japan's economy to get this bad?
>>
>>117070528
Except it does, because globalization happens and extending to western market.
They're cutting out the more niche part of the industry, just like they already abandoned lolicon anime.
>>
>>117067564
Anime had a good run.
>>
>>117069150
>impending war
What
>>
>>117070714
Fuck off LRD, nobody likes you.
>>
>>117070587
The recession won't go away until Japan left its fucked up business model. Just an example

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2q3jQUZTis
>>
Maybe Japan should learn that there is more to competitiveness than "keep doing at what you have been doing for decades but for longer hours".
>>
>>117070714
As if they can get rid of the tentacle rape stigma in the western world.
>>
>>117070672
It's never just one thing

In general though, Japanese businesses are goddamn retarded.
>>
>>117070770
I don't care about those people who hates me, sorry.
>>
>>117070835
Damn you Jon Stewart
>>
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>>117070835
Just stop censoring porn. People can handle it.
>>
>>117070819
Japan's working hours have declined a lot since the '80s
>>
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>>117070672
A bubble popped in the 90s and everyone else caught up
Globalization and China's rise have been major external factors, while their soul-crushing self-destructive culture of uniformity is a major internal factor
Many young people in Japan have never known anything different than the "current" decades of virtually standing still and just don't give a shit anymore
>>
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>>117070190
>Otakus are the bastard offspring of the economical recession.
You merely adopted the unemployment. I was born in it, molded by it.
>>
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>going to Japan in a few months
>mfw incoming exchange rate
>>
>>117067564

Japan has been in a recession for the last 35 years.
>>
>>117071163
Me too. Is it a good thing or a bad thing?
>>
>>117071246
It's a great thing.
>>
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All hail our new Korean overlords!
>>
Japan is the third biggest global economy, they're doing fine.
>>
>>117071246

In 1981, it was 340JPY to 1 USD. In other words, everything would cost 3x what it does not if you're buying it from Japan.

But now that they're economy is shit it's 1/3 what is used to be ~100 JPY to 1 USD.
>>
>>117071264
I hope that's not sarcasm. I've been wanting to get out of the country for a long time.
i hope they don't notice i'm half korean or something
>>
>tfw I was going to order some kitkats from Jlist
>I have now hopefully saved some money
>>
>>117071386
They're trying to stimulate exports by tanking the value of the yen. The yen is currently a lot cheaper than it was, say, a year ago. It's a great time to be a buyfag.
>>
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>Abenomics
>>
>>117071443
>tfw I live beside an asian supermarket
>every kitkat flavor at my disposal
>>
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I really feel bad for Japan. I admired Japan even before watching anime. I remember how my grandpa taught me about the Japanese miracle.
>>
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>You'll never get to experience the bubble era.
>>
>>117071359
I don't think you understand what you just said.
>>
>>117071455
Oh good. Maybe I could grab a figure or something. Cousins say that there's some good ramen out there too.
>>
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>>117071193
>Japan was in a recession in the 1980s

>>117071359
What the fuck am I reading
>>
>>117071494
Times like this I envy Americans.
>>
>>117071583
>What the fuck am I reading
Clearly, the more of one currency is needed to exchange to another, the better country 1 is doing compared to country 2. That is why Zimbabwe is a global economic powerhouse!
>>
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>>117071600
>american
I live in Canada my friend
>>
>>117071332
Hey, people who dont know shit about the subject ought to shut up
>>
Do you think the high corporate tax (35%) and aversion to foreign things might have something to do with it?
>>
>>117069150
>the angst and depression following war, political unrest, and economic upheaval results in more anime with actual messages instead of an endless parade of moeshit, pandering, and grinding franchises into the ground
it's the best thing that could happen to anime at this point
>>
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>>117069150
>impending war
>Japan cannot go to war
>North Korea would be committing suicide on the spot if it went to war and couldn't escape South Korea
>China has 0 projection force and would have to go through both the SKN, US Navy, Royal Navy, and Japan's Navy to go anywhere by sea, or cut through two of the largest countries with the most heavily equipped militaries on the entire continent to get to anywhere by land
>nobody can transport any nuclear payloads due to the US Navy and AEGIS
>nobody can fire any nuclear missiles due to satellite defense
>any country which went to full scale warfare right now would be committing irrecoverable economic and political suicide
>Russia would swoop in on any part of Asia that went on the offensive just for the excuse to take all of their resources

That war can impend all it wants but it won't happen.
>>
>>117071668
>>117071332
S. Korea took Japan's place on technological innovation, China is a fucking monster and Sony is at the border of bankruptcy. What else is left for Japan?
>>
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>>117068949
>More 3D CG anime
>mfw
>>
>>117071583
>What the fuck am I reading

I don't see the problem, I checked Wolfram Alpha and those are accurate exchange rates.

In the 1980's JPY bought USD more favorable than it does now?.

That would imply, indeed, that currency traders believe to be the USD more valuable relative to the JPY in the 80s, which directly implies that investors believe the countries dealing in USD are fiscally stronger than countries (Japan) trading in JPY.
>>
>>117071732
The only exception is when the US get's its panties in a bunch and wants to go blow shit up in some dirt poor country.
>>
>>117071668
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy#Economy_.E2.80.93_overview
>>
>>117071857
>implying CG anime is bad
I can't hear you over the sound of your fedora wildly tipping, m8.
>>
>>117071857
>more gdgd Fairies
Yes, please.
>>
>>117070971
This. Get rid of censorship and people will go nuts buying it
>>
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>>117069336
>Otaku are recession proof. In fact in the 90's during the lost decade, otaku stuff (anime, games, manga, toys) was the one area of growth.

That's because the Otaku market basically can be thought of as a market in "Inferior Goods"*.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferior_good

What I mean by this, is that as the economy worsens, more men end up migrating into the realm of 2D. Less Riaju, more Otaku.

*In the economic sense -- not necessarily the quality sense as 2D > 3D IMHO.
>>
>>117071844
Sentient waifu AI.
>>
>>117071945
Most of what I've seen is easily in the "acceptable, but not preferred" area for me. It looks like anime, but it doesn't move the way hand drawn anime moves, if that makes sense.

I see it similar to early animatronics, before they really got them down pat; they just look unnatural compared to what we're use to.
>>
>>117067564
Bring back my 2007 all winrars anime goes from there.
>>
Nothing anusual, any economy tends to contract the months following a big tax hike. What they need to do is ensure that the extra income from this tax eventually reaches people so as to incentivate consmuption.

They also need to keep the damn inflation at 2% at least.
>>
>>117071878
That isn't full scale warfare no matter how much the media drums it up to be. It's the equivalent of having Iron Man go kill a gang of Mexicans and I guarantee you almost 80% of the death toll on America's side in any recent war was grossly exaggerated and misrepresented to gain sympathy from dumb civilians who think there's an ounce of truth about what they've seen about the military from anywhere but the military. We barely even have troops in the middle east anymore for anything but occupying and have just resorted to bombing the place, yet for some reason we still get sympathy reports about USAF Airmen (?) who were for some reason on a patrol in enemy territory and got their leg blown off. Kind of weird a branch with no infantry would be on ground patrol in a hot zone.
>>
>>117071246

Imagine this, you have 10,000 burgerbucks. You want to convert this money into Yen so you can go over to Japan and have a good time. If the exchange rate of usd to yen was 1 usd to 100 yen, then you would be able to convert your money into 1,000,000 yen. Pretty good, right?

Now lets say Japan's economy is doing poorly, knowing this, less people are going to want yen, its value against the dollar becomes weaker. Right down the exchange rate is 1 dollar to ~116 yen. That means with 10,000 burgerbucks, you can convert that into 1,160,000 yen. You now have an extra 160,000 yen to spend on your dumb weeaboo shit.

The weaker the value of the yen is, the more yen you can get while exchanging another currency for yen.
>>
>>117071870
Your understanding is exactly the opposite of the truth. I can only assume this is because you're legitimately retarded. If it took 340 yen to make one dollar in the '80s and it only takes 100 now, that means the yen is STRONGER. Again, you are retarded
>>
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>>117072039
>That's because the Otaku market basically can be thought of as a market in "Inferior Goods"
Just as well
>>
>>117072068
Oh, I totally agree with you. I was just tossing that little fact out there.
>>
>people worrying about this
Japan's population is too high for it's land thanks to booming economies which always lead to baby booms

Same thing is happening in a lot of countries, people on the bottom are gonna die and that's the simple fact. We'll likely have a few large conflicts (not WW3 scale) which will clear a big chunk of the population's plebs

The worst thing Japan could do is following the Jude advice and importing more people in, that will only exacerbate the problem and make everyone suffer more. Which is what the Jude likes to see, lower value of human labor = more profit
>>
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>>117071945
I'm not him but were there any really good animated 3D CG series (not just elements but all episode 3dcg animated)? Things like Sidonia or Ronia have good plot but God knows how eye cancerous they were.
>>
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>>117072013
I mean, there's not much of a reason to keep it anyway. People will buy more porn, and why bother censoring violent orc rape anyway?
>>
>>117071945
Stop being blind, fagtron.
>>
>>117072126
That's assuming prices don't rise to meet the new standard though. In some situations it can mean yeah while 1 dollar = 100 yen and a burger costs lets say 500 yen, then after inflation 1 = 116 yen but now the burger costs 525 yen when is usually the case when inflation like that happens, you're actually losing money from their economy's perspective.
>>
>>117072055
It's incredibly easy for me to get over the stiffness of the animation and appreciate the benefits that 3DCG brings, in Knights of Sidonia for example, the sound design was absolutely stellar, as was the animation and details in the combat scenes, unfortunately because animation is a lengthy process all the time/resources gets put into the fight scenes and the character interaction is almost completely neglected, hopefully in future people can get over it and studios can start investing into 3DCG some more until it gets to the point where it's indistinguishable.
>>
>>117072300
>That's assuming prices don't rise to meet the new standard

These fuckers can't even get inflation to 1%
>>
>>117072310
>Knights of Sidonia

I tried three times to watch this, and I just absolutely couldn't; the animation was just far too awful for me to keep giving a shit about the great story people always talk about.
>>
>>117067564
Japan is gonna get fucked
I feel bad, man
>>
>>117072412
Try watching it with SVP.
>>
>>117072044
Ins some years, Japan won't have an industry for making sentient AI waifus or at best it'll make crappy AI waifus while S Korea make better, cheaper waifus and sell them around the globe
>>
Isn't Japan's economy gloomy since the 80s?
>>
>>117072300

I'm fairly new to macroeconomics so correct me if I'm wrong, but usually when an economy is doing poorly, it has to do with either inflation or unemployment (or a mixture of both). If the problem is inflation, then yeah like you said, the price of goods will rise and you won't be much better off with the exchange rates vs purchasing power. If the economic downturn is related to unemployment, then it is likely that you will get a favorable exchange rate and purchasing power. This is more fun than discussing anime.
>>
>>117072300
You have to remember that the exchange rate is not the only thing that influences inflation.

If none of the japs are buying those fucking burgers then there the prices go down
>>
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>>117072457
No matter what else happens, the Japanese waifu industry will never die.
>>
>>117070354
Yes, for the past two decades they've essentially been in a liquidity trap.
>>
>>117071844
Japan still has monopolies on a lot of technologies.
>>
>>117071857
>more CG Idols
I can get behind that.
>>
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>>117067564
I thought Japan's economy has been in the shit since the 90s?
>>
If Japan would just let its fucking sunset industries die they would be out of this shithole, but no, they have to keep their precious 70-year old grandmas farming rice and making textiles employed
>>
>>117072705
It's just a slightly different version of shit.

They stabilized and perched themselves up a bit for a while, but it was a shoddy patchwork job and it collapsed beneath their feet and now they're going back to where they were.
>>
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>>117071732
>nobody can fire any nuclear missiles due to satellite defense
When did we get Star Wars running?

>>117071870
>1981: 340 JPY = 1 USD
>2014: 117 JPY = 1 USD
Looking purely at the numbers, the yen is currently worth about 3x as much relative to the dollar as it was in 1981
But this is a massively oversimplified way of looking at things, and assumes that things like the real value of both currencies and various prices of goods and cost of living has remained static.

Using the CPI:
>1981 JPY = 1.25x 2011 JPY
>1981 USD = 2.5x 2011 USD

The exchange rates don't determine value, it's very much the other way around

>>117072721
All those old people might as well be doing something
>>
>>117072611
Which technologies? I don't know, maybe Japan should spend a little more on international lobbys. For the casualfags, Japan looks like S. Korea's retarded brother.
>>
>>117071716
>Shitty nationalist propoganda

u wot m8
>>
War. The solution is war. Cull the weak so the strong may grow.
>>
>>117072820
>All those old people might as well be doing something
Except that their "something" is being subsidized by MITI, preventing actually competitive foreign markets taking their place
>>
>>117072820
>that dip at 1945

lel
>>
>>117072928
Senator Armstrong pls
>>
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>>117072705
It has. It was just mostly stagnation rather than full-on depression, and now it's tumbling down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuRwRlicEmw
>>
>>117072847
Casualfags have absolutely no influence on a country's economy, but it's cute that you think they do.
>>
>>117072254

I guess that the problem with being the one that asks to lift the porn restrictions is that you will always be known as "the porn guy". Sure, otakus would love you, probably make you a shrine or something, but for the rest of the citizens, that's shamefur dispray.
>>
Just cut out the government health care, the elderly will die and the government's expenses will decrease. Problem all solved.
>>
Can we all agree that scrapping Article 9 so that Japan could have an actual defense industry is probably the best thing for Japan's economy and regional security that could happen?
>>
>>117067564

/pol/ taught me that the only way to fix an economy is to throw the lower-class under the bus. In the end this will benefit them too, though.

Though, I'm hoping the apocalypse will just happen already.
>>
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>>117073057
Fuck it, desparate times call for desparate measures. If you made work hours shorter, people wouldn't mind the whole porn thing anyway.
>>
>>117073047
My aunt bought a LG television because she watch K-dramas. In fact, she bought many Korean stuff because she thinks Korean product are prettier and better than Japanese products.

True story
>>
>>117073129
Between China flipping their shit and being the US's largest military colony it'd be hard to justify the trouble
>>
>>117067564
Generally things like entertainment and alcohol don't feel the recession as much.

infact the opposite tends to be true people tend to put more money into escapism than they normally would.
>>
Are these fuckers seriously complaining about a measly 8% sale tax? They have some of the best public services in the world and they complain about paying that? Fuck them.
>>
Anime survived 60 years with low budget and slave animators.

Why should break now?
>>
>>117073203
Are you the half-Korean anon from earlier in the thread?
>>
>>117073252
The Obama administration actually supports Abe changing the constitution because of how much it would save in US defense spending in the region, and China and Korea being fucking tumblr-tier easily triggered babies shouldn't be a reason to keep from moving to the same level of defense preparedness as every other nation in the entire world
>>
>>117073202
Izzat some Ono Kenuji?
>>
>>117071732
>China has 0 projection force
You're forgetting Russia has allied with china m8
>>
>>117073297
This. The money has to come from somewhere.
>>
>>117073350
I'm not even asian
>>
>>117067564
Well, anime is really low budget, like Hanna-Barbera levels of low budget, it will find a way.
>>
According to Akumetsu, we need to start murdering politicians.
>>
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>>117073321
Nips back then were very motivated in every activity because they were working for rebuilding the nation. Now they don't give a shit about anything, especially the people working on the animation industry
>>
>>117073350
Nah, that's me. I'm half Jap, if that makes anything better for me.
>>
>>117073444
I wish Japan would turn to Russia instead of the US as an ally, if Japan could get Russia disentangled from China and get Putinmacht on their side, they could become an actually intimidating power taken seriously assuming >>117073129 happens instead of being the US's little sister
>>
This means I'll be able to buy more plastic butts right?
>>
>>117073203
People don't care about where a product comes from, no matter what they want you to believe. I general, if two products are of comparable quality, people will always choose the cheaper one.

The reason japan has been doing poorly on the international market when it comes to technology is that, among other things, their currency has been awfully uncompetitive. They still dominate the auto industry because of their know-how, but the yen hasn't helped.
>>
>>117073195

I know how to be happy with nothing too. So even if all the anime is QUALITY and low-budget I will be happy.

>>117072039

It's true, otaku market is the shadow market, that does good in economic crisis. Now all our anime will become high-budget and awesome.
>>
>>117073657

I'm sort of curious as to where you are from? Russia?
>>
>>117073752
Midwestern America, why?
>>
>>117073444
They haven't. They're TRYING to ally with China, so that they aren't quite so dependent on Eurobux if/when more sanctions come down, but China has been moving very carefully when it comes to Russia.
>>
>>117073444
>Russia
>Naval projection
>>
>>117073657
That seems pretty unlikely, given what happened at the G20 just the other day.
>>
>>117073297
Taxes on consumption when you want to increase consumption generally aren't very productive.
>>
>>117073858
The world's just being tsundere, everybody secretly loves Putin-chan
>>
>>117073828

Why would you want Russia to be more powerful, Russia is a bully, do you support bullying?
>>
>>117073601
So the solution is more nukes then?
>>
>>117073910
They aren't trying to increase consumption though, that will naturally happen when they manage to sustain a decent inflation rate. What they are trying to do is what they should have done two decades ago, pay their public debt and stop financing their expenditure with bonds.
>>
>>117074159
All those nice trains Japanese people love so much cost money, it's about time they start paying for them.
>>
>>117074005
Not really. After the war Japan was in ruins in all likelihood would have become a failed state had not the Korean war kicked off a demand for industrial goods and ensured a continued U.S. interest in the region.

So in a sense Japan can only win if Korea loses.
>>
>>117074271
So that's why they hate Koreans so fucking much
>>
>>117073962
Bullies making weaks stronger, or give them psychical trauma. Really fuck bullies, but if nature give them permission to exist, that is must be mean something.
>>
>>117074159
They are trying to increase consumption! That's part of the point in trying to raise the inflation rate. More dollars can't chase the same amount of goods if no one's chasing goods in the first place
>>
>>117072039
Otaku shit isn't really an inferior good. It's a luxury. There is no real replacement for it and demand doesn't fall with consumer income, especially when you look at how pricey some of the shit is. NEETs aren't the only people who collect plastic crap there
>>
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>>117072183
>baby boom
>Japan
>Jude
What am I reading?
>>
>>117074159
So they're trying to pay off the debt brought about by two decades of inadequate demand by taxes on the consumption of goods that people demand?
>>
>>117074677
They are trying to raise the inflation rate because deflation absolutely destroys an economy and causes, among other things, lower consumption of normal and luxury goods despite increasing incomes. Consumption will reach a normal level when the economy becomes healthy.

One of japan's big problem was financing their gigantic public expenditure with public debt. That had to stop, it's not something you normally do as it's not sustainable.

Having a sale tax of 5% was extremely unrealistic for a country with that kind of infrastructure. People never like taxes, but they exist for a reason.
>>
>>117067564
>falls into recession in the middle of the weekend
>all my stocks fall 1% at open
So fucking mad.
>>
>>117074690
>NEETs aren't the only people who collect plastic crap there
Okay, social rejects with jobs
>>
>>117074868
>brought about by two decades of inadequate demand

No, demand had nothing to do with it.
>>
>>117070445
End your life.
>>
>>117074690
>It's a luxury. There is no real replacement for it and demand doesn't fall with consumer income

Then it's clearly not a luxury good, it simply has a very inelastic demand.
>>
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Japan stuck in a liquidity trap for over a decade because
>Hurr economy not werking, rets raisu sares tax because muh baranced budgettu

Abenomics introduced:
>Riquidity Trapp? Wuts dat? Quantitivu easing and NEGATIVE Ihnturhest raits Wirr wurk! Ahnd morr sares tax! Good forr rainy day

>Nihon
>>
>>117075290
Sorry
*consumer income rising*
>>
>>117075096
The nominal growth of Japan's public debt is actually pretty normal for a developed country. Low real growth and especially the lack of inflation are the reason Japan's denbtz are so high
>>
There are so many misinformed posts in this thread...

Japan has been in 4 technical recessions in the past 7 years. 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2014.

4 periods of back-to-back quarters of negative growth over the past 7 years.

The main problem in Japan is the deflation trap that they've been stuck in for 20 years. Abe's sales tax hike caused this technical recession, but the main thing is that Japan has basically been hovering in and out of recession for 7 years...

Japan has almost as many quarters of negative growth as positive growth since 2008. They are pretty much an example of an economy treading water...
>>
>>117075298
Could you explain all that without greentexting and laughing at japanese accent, please?

I'm genuinely interested.
>>
>>117070319
All he needs is beer and a computer.
>>
>>117075492
He's saying that raising taxes while the economy is shit is retarded.
>>
>>117075492
Japan's problem is that consumers have become conditioned to falling prices over the past 20 years.

Deflation = falling prices. It's when consumers believe that prices will be lower in the future, so they reduce current demand for goods/services in favor of future demand for goods/services.

The problem is, it generally results in a shrinking economy, and given that wages are sticky, it creates all sorts of bad effects that generally signal a stagnating economy.

A sales tax hike of 3% (from 5% to 8%) when consumers are already conditioned against consumption is just going to cause more demand contraction...
>>
>>117075492
Japan's focus on keeping their government budget balanced, meant dragging their economy into recession after recession with horrendous deflation, causing interest rates to be stuck at zero (liquitidy trap) while the deflation makes real interest rates high. Expansionary monetary policy a la quantitative easing wont do shit in this stage, yet for some dumbfuck reason, the government has focused on monetary expansion and contractionary fiscal policy (rises in taxes)


Also, for even more laughs, they've still targeted inflation at fucking 2%
>>
>>117075602
>>117075723
Isn't the point to tackle long-term debt at the same time?

Without that commitment, markets would lose faith in JP's debt and bail on it.
>>
>>117075602
It should have been done after stabilizing the economy and reaching a decent and sustained inflation rate, but that would have probably taken more than one administrative period so fuck it.

Still, it's not the internal market that they are worrying about at this point.
>>
Let's face it, Japan is just gonna slowly die off.
>>
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What merch do you fuckers buy when you go to a con/are in Japan?
>inb4 buying merch at a con
>inb4 not answering my question
>>
>>117075815
Most Japanese government debt is purchased by pig-ignorant Japanese people who can't think of anything better to invest in, and the rest by the Bank of Japan. There is no risk of default whatsoever. Worst (best?) case scenario is that they would start monetizing it, which might finally get them some inflation
>>
Why don't they Open up the floodgates and let white man take care of that country?
>>
>>117075815
Most of Japan's debt is domestic, so it really isn't that bad. And the debt's only going to get worse if they keep the economy in the shitter. Fewer people employed = fewer tax receipts and greater spending on benefits
>>
>>117075815
Well, the problem is that the deflation trap is a primary reason why the debt problem has gotten so out of hand.

Inflation (through nominal GDP growth) is a major reason why Debt-to-GDP ratios look a lot better in other countries like US/UK compared to say Japan.

If Japan doesn't fix their deflation problem, they'll never solve their debt problem.

It sounds like a bit of chicken-and-egg semantics, but you're best off not worrying as much about debt until you're sure you're out of the deflation trap.

One other thing to keep in mind, Japan's debt is almost entirely locally held (by Japanese institutions/people), unlike US national debt.
That means that Japan doesn't really have much of a downside from reducing its value by inflation more than actually trying to pay it down. It's worth keeping in mind that most debt reduction after WW2 was a result of inflation, not actual payments on the debts.
>>
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I have no idea why I have this thread open and keep coming back to read all it's updates.
>>
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>>117075890
>going outside
>>
>>117076067
So they just have to print some money?
>>
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>>117076172
God dammit, I didn't catch that one.
>>
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>>117076152
Maybe you're interested in economics.

On a related note, Rui-rui was a filthy communist, and doesn't belong in this thread.
>>
>>117076183
Certainly an option, yes.
>>
>>117076361
What you people are talking about is interesting but I don't get it.
>>
>>117076172
>Even considering the possibility of there being any consideration of going outside.
>>
>>117076067
This is what I don't fully understand, Abe started tanking the Yen to become more competitive internationally and generate inflation. But now he decides to raise sale tax which basically killed the internal market.

Why the fuck is he doing both things at the same time?
>>
>americans telling other countries how to avoid debt
what? i know japan has a huge debt too but still, pot meet kettle
>>
>>117076152
I just want to laugh at the demise of the grorious nippon samurai peopre, but I don't understand shit.
>>
>>117076449
No, Americans are saying worrying about debt is not helping Japan.
>>
>>117076183
As far as Japan goes, it's not entirely that simple but the first thing is to fix deflation, and printing money while encouraging consumers to increase current consumption is the best scenario (by making them think future prices will be higher, i.e. develop inflation).

Japan needs a lot of economic restructuring too though... a lot of Japanese industries are inefficient due to local laws/regulations (agriculture in Japan is still much smaller scale than US for example because of the way they've insulated small farms in Japan from global trade).

A combination of developing inflation with encouraging economic modernization of inefficient industries is what Japan needs. Whether they actually have the stomach for it is anyone's guess.

TPP is the thing to watch as it pertains to making Japan more efficient. If they actually are willing to open more industries to international trade, it would help even if it causes short-term displacement...
>>
Is there a way to make money off of countries going into recession?
>>
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>>117076435
He said it, not me.
>>
>>117076524
Buy bonds low and sell high later.
>>
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>>117076595
I criticized your thought, not his action.
You got after him for his course of action already.

sasuga comr/a/de
>>
>>117076438
Raising the sales tax was part of a deal the LDP made with DPJ back in 2012.
>>
>>117076438
That's what doesn't make sense. There was a ton of argument against raising the sales tax before being sure that the seeds of inflation were solidly in place.

By not waiting, he's basically thrown Japan into its 4th recession in 7 years, and there was no reason to rush into this...

Japanese bond yields are extremely low, markets haven't been putting pressure on them to lower their debts at all yet... so they were way too early on the tax hike.
>>
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>>117076332
Yea that's probably it, all this is interesting, even if I some of the shit discussed flies completely past my head.

Hajime best CROWDS.
>>
>>117076438
Political considerations, basically. He may call for new elections in light of the sales tax report, but as many of the seats are re-elected and/or hereditary, it's anyone's guess how much that will help.
>>
>>117076183
Only if they can convince investors they're going to stick to it. Inflation brought by money being printed would hopefully encourage investment due to real interest rates rising as a consequence. The problem is that nobody has confidence in the Japanese government, because they've been so limpwristed with policies. Pretty much every event of quantitative easing is paired with a sales tax hike, as the government continues to be paranoid about inflation getting too high
>>
>>117076669
And it was a terrible deal to make. Anything that reduces demand when you're stuck in a deflationary trap is a bad idea.
>>
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Why don't we make our own economy? You guys seem smarter than the average politician.
>>
>>117074522
>nature
Nature isn't giving bullies anything anon. People who don't stand up to them are. Seriously though, by increasing Russia's political influence we get closer and closer to Cold War 2; Nuclear Boogaloo. That's not good for anyone.
>>
>>117076685
The worst part is that it's not like the sales tax increase was going to make a difference anyway, even if the economy had been fine. Japan's public debt is just too big for something that would raise so little revenue to make a dent
>>
>>117076730
*real interest rates lowering
>>
>>117076669
That's great, but did they have to do it right after dumping money into the economy causing the real salary of the population to drop? It was obviously going to cause a demand shock.
>>
>>117076714
>hereditary seats
Whoah whoah what?
I don't know much about the Japanese government, they have non-figurehead hereditary positions? That's fucking stupid.
>>
>>117076497
>Whether they actually have the stomach for it

The real question is whether the politicians have the stomach for it, and whether the voters will vote someone with a spine and economic sense (or at least the sense to listen to good advice). In fact, whether the voters can even manage, mathematically-speaking, to vote in enough members of the Diet to appoint a PM who knows his shit or will pay attention to someone who does is the real question.

Answer: they almost certainly can't. Going to have to wait until after Abenomics has utterly failed for a new course to be taken.
>>
>>117076730
All governments are way too paranoid about inflation. It's so strange when you compare it to how governments acted before 1980
>>
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>>117076696
>always right, no matter what even when absolutely absurd
One of the worst characters ever.
>>
>>117076939
Well, inflation DID signal the death knell for Rome, which used to be a pretty big deal.
>>
>>117076730
One of the biggest problems Japan faces is that there's an elderly v. young element to all of this.

Japan's elderly have profited handsomely off of the deflation trap, and since Japan is one of the "oldest" countries on Earth, that constituency doesn't really care that the economy has hallowed out over the past 20 years because their spending power has been maintained into retirement, while their bonds/savings have maintained their value.

These things are as much a demographics problem as they are a political problem. This has turned into classic generational warfare.
>>
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>>117076807
>putting energy into something
Thread posts: 233
Thread images: 49


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