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Help. I want to get a shiny wynut off of...
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Help. I want to get a shiny wynut off of mirage island but I can't into probability so I don't know if i'm wasting my time.

http://www.serebii.net/games/mirage.shtml
http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Mirage_Island

If I have 400 pokemon in my party to check with the old man, is my chance 400/65536

Or is it 1/65536 on 400 seperate attempts
>>
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*400 total pokemon to check with the old man
Added that part to clarify

Also in case of
>Why not hatch a shiny wynut
The location saying it came from route 130 and implying it was from mirage island is why I want this one
>>
Once you get to the island it's not going to go away so your chances of getting a shiny are normal at that point. Thinking about it as compound probability is unnecessary.
>>
>>20613730
But that won't show up in future games.
>>
>mirage island
>mossdeep space center
>the white rock
>houses with barricaded doors
3rd gen had so much bullshit

OP quit while you're ahead, it's just a wynaut
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>>20613745
To be clear i'm just trying to know my probability on making the island appear in the first place.
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>>20613759
Those doors are opened with the cards.

>>20613730
If you're planning to transfer it then you're wasting your time, it'll only say "from Hoenn".
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>>20613777
1/356 or whatever the national dex is for that game. Today it could be fucking mew for all you know.
>>
OP is underage or just a fucking dunce.
Why wouldn't you take advantage of breeding in the newest games to create the best shiny wynaut possible?
>>
>>20613797
Wrong. The number of the island has to match the personality value. One Charmander can work and another can't.
>>
Like the other anon said, Mirage Island is based on the personality value. It's harder than finding a shiny.

"A Pokémon's personality value is an unsigned 32-bit integer that is created when the Pokémon is first encountered. It is set when a Pokémon appears in the wild, when an Egg is first received from the Pokémon Day Care by the player (in Generation III* except in Pokémon Emerald and in Generation V) or by the Day-Care man (in Emerald and Generation IV), or when a Pokémon or its Egg is received from an NPC. As an unsigned 32-bit integer, its value can be anywhere from 0 (32 zeroes in binary) to 4,294,967,295 (32 ones in binary),"
>>
>>20613814
>>20613814
I'm doing this strictly for the sake of having a shiny that came from the rare mirage island. I'm planning on keeping it in this game as a collectible trophy shiny.

I do stick to competitive breeding for serious pokemon


So its 1/65536 each time I check one of the 400 pokemon I have with the old man? That doesn't only make a shiny pokemon look like a joke but it makes pokerus look like a joke. I would probably never see the island even if I cycled through 800 pokemon a day for a year doing this

Glad I asked first
>>
>>20613926
>1/65536

More than actually, considering all the posssible personalities combinations. See >>20613857
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Good luck. This easily took me over three months.
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>>20614065
From the mirage island bulbapedia
"Although Pokémon Ruby, Sapphire, and Emerald include a location pointer for "Mirage Island", any Wynaut caught here will simply display "Met on Route 130" in their summary. This is because the player is still technically on Route 130's map"

Either i'm interpreting that wrong or you posted a fake wynut
>>
>be 8 years old
>read about mirage island
>try to get there every day for 2 years+
>never got there

feels bad man
>>
Is this you OP?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1yqyFUFyoU
>>
>>20614065
>Mirage Island
>Not Route 130

lel
>>
>>20614102
Here. If you're posting a fake picture to be funny but you were serious about finding your own shiny wynaut i'd love to hear what your process was. How many pokemon did you cycle per day on the old man?
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>>20614113
>>
>>20613857
>>20613965
I'm not sure i'm reading into how this works correctly.

It says the number value generated from a range of 0 to 4,294,967,295
is divided by 65535 and that is the number of the pokemon in the party

But what happens when a number under 65535 is generated? How does the game handle 65535 dividing into a smaller number to get the personality value?
>>
>>20614407
Well Bulbapedia says the REMAINDER is what counts. All divions have remainders, even it's 0 (because the island's number can be 0 too).

You can divide smaller numbers. 2 divided by 4 is 0.25 and the remainder is 0.

14 divided by 65535 is 2,1362etc. The remainder of that division is what must match the island.
>>
>>20614791
Thanks. I just got so confused because the bulbapedia page says that you can purposely increase the probability of making the island appear by showing the old man more then one pokemon

But from what I remember hearing that doesn't work because they say its the same prob no matter how many times the event happens. No matter how many times you flip a coin, its 50% every time is what i've heard

Unless theres some subtle math exception going on in this situation that enables probability to increase that i'm not aware of
>>
>>20614850
>you can purposely increase the probability of making the island appear by showing the old man more then one pokemon

Well it depends on how you intepret that phrase. The island sets a new number at 00:00, that doesn't change for the whole day. Technically it's always there but invisible, and you can only access it when you have the right number for it. Talking to the old man first isn't even necessary to acess it! It's just easier asking him than surfing all the way there to check.

What they mean is. you get more chances of finding it if you have lots of Pokémon, because that means more chances of having a mon number that matches the island. They don't have to be different mons, two Pikachus have different personality values.

Kinda like when you have more chances of winning the lottery the more different IDs you have in your boxes.
>>
>>20614850
>making the island appear

Anon, the island appears every day without exception. You need the right Pokemon to see it and step on it though. The old man sees it when you take that Pokemon to him.
>>
>>20614407
>>20614850

A PV is a 32 bit number, for the mirage island to appear a random number that is 16 bit is generated, if the 16 bit number matches the first 16 bit of a party's Pokemon's PV, mirage island appears.

Example PV: 1111001 11101110 10101010 0000001

Example mirage island generated number: 11010001 11111111

The first 16 bit did not match and so mirage island won't appear.

By chance you are pretty much wasting your time just trying getting on the Island.

Just to make it clear, you will probably need to show the old man around 65535 Pokemon, which are 10922.5 party switches.

Most people claiming they've been to the island without cheating are lying cunts.
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>>20613926
enjoy your internal battery dying.
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>>20615036
Jesus fuck, was it really that rare?
At least it'll be more common in ORAS r-right?
>>
>>20615036
>Most people claiming they've been to the island without cheating are lying cunts.
I could see some bastard that got there by luck. After all there are more than 65535 Poképlayers on the world, SOMEONE masut have been luck enough. But yeah, from the claims in the internet, only 1% must be true.
>>
>finding Mirage Island this hard
>taking the Azure Flute to the top of Mt Sinnoh was thought of as too hard
>>
>>20615069
If we get it again...

>>20615036
>you will probably need to show the old man around 65535 Pokemon
But you can still fail at that number, right? Since there are more personality numbers than island numbers.
>>
>>20615090
I'm still so mad about that, holly shit. And don't forget about other stuff like finding the right Regi diving stuff, Spiritomb, the Feebas fishing spot...
>>
>>20613699
I heard finding this island is harder then finding a shiny in 3rd gen.
Also I managed to get the island to spawn, but i did not know it was an event so i just passed on by.
>>
>>20615154
>the right Regi diving stuff
That bit is easy to find, anyone would come across it. The hard part is working out just what being said in the Braille and where the tombs where that got unlocked (although the Ruin Maniacs helped)
>>
>>20615069
>>20615083
>>20615126
>>20615215
The shiny rate in gen 3 is 8/65536 (1/8192), Mirage Island is 1/65536 .

You are more likely to meet 7 shinnies than to get on mirage island.
>>
>>20615331
But the shiny rate is always 8/65536
At least you can increase the chance of getting Mirage Island by having more pokemon
>>
>tfw for ORAS they change the requirement from having a mon with the right PV to having a mon with the right OT
>tfw significant chance increase but many people will still never see it
>>
Well shit. I guess I could try to catch 1000 a day and hope I get it before this years over. Maybe if i'm lucky it will only take a few months
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>>20615837
>>20615395
Made a program to test the odds.
Considering you have 400 Pokemon, this is how long it takes.

It mostly averages at around 160 days, and maximum days sometimes reaches 1400 days (almost 4 years).

This is in account that you show the old man all 400 Pokemon each and every day.

Good luck OP, enjoy your autism.
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>>20616042
Can you check and see my chance if I share 1200 per day?
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>>20616388
If you managed to share 1200 per day these would be your odds (Average of 10000 times).

To share 1200 per day you would need to completely empty your entire storage and refill it 3 times a day, since the maximum Pokemon on storage in gen 3 is 420.

Again, you would have to do this every single day.

You could try doing that right now and see how tedious checking 400 can be.
>>
>>20616648
>>20616042
And this would be assuming all those mons have different numbers, right? Imagine what happens if you catcg a repeated one.
>>
>>20616731
it simulates Pokemon, so the same PVs can happen.
>>
>>20616648
I can keep the batch of full boxes from the day before and use those as a free 400 the next day when the number changes. So i'll only really be catching 800 per day that way

Still tedious though.

On the upside i'll be catching wild shiny pokemon almost for sure this way. I should do an indepth study of pokemon routes that have 100% catchrate on everything there with certain ball combinations and commit to catching pokes for mirage island I wouldn't mind accidentally seeing shiny
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>>20616648
Forgot to mention,thank you for doing this for me anon

Also I am very surprised you managed to generate the event on day 1 with that calculation
>>
OP here. Going to bed now. Thanks for the help anons.
>>
>>20615331
>actually made it to Mirage Island in Ruby
>never encountered a shiny in the wild on the same save
Well shit.
>>
>>20615036
its actually not that rare if you're looking at a global scale. well over 65535 players all playing a game for potentially hundreds of hours a file adds up pretty quick to a decent amount of people who statistically are almost assured to see it. add in the factor for people who get lucky and I'm sure you'd find a good number of people making it to mirage island.

>I did
Thread replies: 48
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