What do you supposed will the pillars of the console consumer electronic industry in year 2020 be?
For every decade of the foreseeable future. Sony will always be in the console market, they simply can't pull out. Consumer trust is too high for them to exit. Nintendo might step out of the home console market, and this would impact the market far less than MS stepping out.
I expect that MS will mirror Sega and make one last console, which will be short lived. Think about it.
>first console was untouchable against the Japanese giant
>second console kicks the Japanese console's ass
>confident in their success, they decide to coast the rest of the race away
>they make a bunch of mistakes along the way
>third console was made out of arrogance and bad decisions
>third console is raped alive, and has a low profile in general
Yeah I know Sega made the SG-1000, so that means Sega made 5 consoles. You could argue the Dreamcast was the Xbox version of the SG-1000, since MS had some input in it, and the SG-1000 was a rebranded Colecovision.
There are only two vendors for x86 hardware, and only one of them can produce a worthwhile SOC. Meanwhile in the ARM market there are a number of vendors who all have competitive products. Nvidia and other ARM makers just missed out on having a competitive SOC the last time, next time they or another ARM SOC vendor will almost certain to be successful.
Plus in the console industry switching CPU architectures is relatively simple as the console maker gets to dictate hardware. Only Valve would have an issue switching because SteamOS and its massive game library is tied to x86.