>>45384820 Russia fucking hates China, and China hates Russia. Mongolia is seen largely as a buffer between Russia and China by the Russians, and is still viewed as being a part of China by the Chinese.
>>45384820 Mongolia is a buffer state. It likes Russia more than China because it's because of their support that they were able to permanently break away from China and avoid being reconquered. As a result, China regards Mongolia as land stolen from them by Russian imperialism. Regardless, it's such an irrelevant shithole that no one is likely to make much of a fuss about it.
Russia and China also don't like each other much because they are rivals who compete over influence over Central Asia, Mongolia, Korea and other places. Of course, Russia is collapsing into total irrelevance as we speak with a rapidly shrinking population and a joke economy, while China's star is rising, so it'll all fall into China's sphere soon enough.
If the Apocalypse takes place in the future, China will just wreck Russia completely and take whatever it likes. Mongolia would support Russia in a desperate attempt to preserve its independence, and fail at doing so.
>>45385669 >irrelevant shithole Well, Mongolia is an actual democracy, and it's among the lower half of the countries considered by the UN to have high human development. It has the same score as China and is a bit above world average. Can't be that bad. If you like steppes, that is.
>>45385669 >Of course, Russia is collapsing into total irrelevance as we speak It'll in the medium term depend on the shape of oil price... but with Iran returning to the market and the House of Saud wanting to squeeze out the frackers, there's little hope of that going up anytime soon. They were a bunch of utter fools if they thought having half their income depend on oil was a good idea and not diversify. Even for that alone they deserve all they've got coming. (The same goes for Venezuela where the figure is 80%.) If there were a war right now, China would stomp the shit out of Russia, maybe even to the point that poutine would decide to go nuclear.
Fun fact there's more Mongolians living in China then there is in Mongolia. The Actual amount of Mongolians living Mongolia almost has them as a minority. So to keep up relations with the Mongolians that are living in China, Mongolia has to play nice with the Chinese
>>45385669 As much as this is largely accurate and likely correct, I like to imagine that China and Russia still remember Genghis Khan and flatly refuse to fuck with anything Mongolia. Not because it has any basis in historical fact, but because it would be awesome.
>>45391280 Not really.. It's complicated, of course.
Current economic stagnation is partly because last year was a shitty year for agriculture. That isn't true everywhere, but in general, it was a bad year to be growing things. That fucks with everything down the line.
The EU staggered a bit and the US dollar went apeshit as the bottom dropped out of the oil market.
China is an interesting case because it should be doing well on cheap oil but with agriculture haveing a bad year and construction bubble popping it's instead doing something that -should- be a recoverable adjustment but instead looks vaguely around the edges like fucking imploding, something that is making everyone else nervous as fuck because even if you don't like China it turning into Africa 2: Africa Harder would be a Very Bad Thing.
>>45384820 >What kind of relations do Russia, Mongolia, and China share with each other? Honest geopolitics or people-relationships? Geopolitically they're on OK terms because firstly they have and enemy-of-enemy relationship with a lot of people (Japan, America, Muslims), and secondly because Russia is a massive raw material exporter and China is a massive raw material importer
Personally, there's a lot of bad blood. The China side of the Russo-China border is patrolled non-stop to keep Chinese from crossing into Russia (Russia doesn't have the manpower to do this) and keep drugs from crossing back. China textbooks from the 70s and 80s detailed how USSR was a traitor to global communism and had devolved into dictatorship, and those chapters have largely remained in modern books.
Summary: Russian gets annoyed at collapse of Russian Empire. Conquers Mongolia from China almost singlehandedly. Brutally slaughters anyone he doesn't like. Declares himself the avatar of some insane Khorne-like Buddhist fringe god. Gets sponsor from the Dalai Lama of the time.
>>45384820 Chinese hate Russians and the same is true on the other side. When I say hate, I don't mean the fire of 10,000 burning suns, but the regular sort of racial hatred you might hear from your parents. They just, really, really have contempt for one another.
Mongolians hate the Chinese because the Chinese ruled them for a long time and never treated them well. They're friends with Russia because the Russians basically keep them as a buffer state. And they're commies.
>>45391927 There's no shift anon, the stock market is something tacked on.
In terms of actual production the US hasn't actually decreased very much. The issue is the *type* of production has shifted - the US remains the most capitalized (as in, physical capital) manufacturing sector in the world, which is why we have the highest production shares of complex goods.
tl;dr - shifting from making textiles to making microchips isn't actually less manufacturing, but the numbers employed and regions where they are employed change, which shakes shit up. Like, the Appalachians? They're just fucked. We don't want coal anymore - and we're not gonna suddenly want it again in the future, so they are just caught out with their pants down.
>>45392235 I'm not talking about a shift in what kind of goods that are produced, I'm talking about austerity.
What in happening today is that we're removing the consumer base by relocating the jobs (or removing them by automation) to places that have lower wages but not the actual buying power to consume what they produce.
Risk of a Chinese invasion in Russia’s far east is illusory. It is impossible for an Asian power to invade and successfully conquer Siberia. It's the world's biggest buffer region. The terrain is hilly and barren. There are almost no north-south roads leading deep into Russia; those that exist can be easily defended, and even then they end up in dead-end lightly populated regions. The season without mud or snow is less than three months. After that time, resupply of an invading army becomes impossible. It might be possible to get the Far Eastern provinces of Vladivostok by sea. But invading, conquering, and exploiting the resources of deep Siberia is virtually impossible.
Central Asia is more doable and arguably more useful to both Russia and China. But this area is also a superb defensive position thanks to the mighty Himalayas, the Tien Shan Mountains, and harsh deserts largely impassable by large armies.
The lure of the Chinese is stronger there than Siberia thanks to their economy and countries not directly in control of Russia. The Old Silk Road ran through this area. However, the frontiers there were designed by Joseph Stalin himself to prevent full independence from Moscow. Many are suffering shortages in water supplies. The only ones with a real independent policy are those with a significant amount of oil.
>>45392492 I'm just going to point out that Germany did amazingly well invading Russia during World War II until they started not doing amazingly well anymore. Then they did amazingly well again for a little while. Then shit really started to suck for them. But Germany had a shortage of the men and materiel they needed to accomplish the job (and, of course, they were already at war with other folks, and occupying northern France, which tied up a not inconsiderable amount of resources) and was so confident of a quick victory that their units weren't winterized (and, of course, they got hit by a particularly bad winter). Soviet casualties during the war were astronomical, but they had more than twice Germany's population, and a combination of fear of Stalin and Germany's brutal treatment of prisoners meant that the Soviets fought tenaciously under conditions that would normally prompt flight or surrender. So I guess what I'm saying is that if Germany had a population almost 10x that of the Soviet Union (like China's compared to Russia's), wasn't already occupying another country and occupied *with* another, and was properly prepared and supplied for a long term conflict, shit would have been very different.
The back of the Wehrmacht was broken by Soviet Short-supply lines vs German Long-supply lines. The traditional Russian strategy is winning time in exchange of distances, which they have plenty on the East. The idea that the Soviets won by employing human wave attacks is Hollywood nonsense.
>>45385586 >they both have governments that don't take shit from anyone and are very serious about pursuing their national interests True, as opposed to most of western countries where interests of politicians to get elected override any strategic interests their countries may have. If Russia so chose (and could actually afford the expense, which it fortunately can't), it could probably take Europe one country at a time and nobody would object, with possible exceptions of the countries being gobbled up themselves. Hell, look at them now, they are unable to put up even token resistance to unarmed civilians crossing their unguarded borders and are completely helpless against criminals who organize and facilitate the transfer
>>45391798 >Where do you think all our cheap crap comes from? Besides Guatemala and the Philipenes.
Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh... China is not quite that cheap anymore either. Even eastern europe is competitive in comparison.
>>45384820 Well it's your setting and you could justify either party invading first, also for political reasons not just flat out resources. But it seems to me China would have more motivation to expand to secure resources than Russia would. On the other hand, Russia could for instance invade to get out of disadvantageous deal it was forced to sign with Chinese earlier, if it saw an opportunity.
The Germans had it easier with Northen European Plain. There are no place to anchor itself and no geographical defenses there but distances and weather. It's even worse because it leads directly into Russia's core. It has always been Russia's most vulnerable and fluid frontier.
>>45392946 >and are completely helpless against criminals who organize and facilitate the transfer No-one is any good at that - I can't think of a single country that can keep people on the side it wants with any sort of reliability - from Best Korea to the US border with Mexico, in the face of organised traffickers they're all equally ineffective.
>>45391280 Well, their GDB is still rising, but the rate of growth is slowing and becoming mor elike what most countries have rather than the meteoric rise they've had in the past decades. There's a big change in infrastructure going on, though (move away from industry built around cheap labour, which leads to a lot of factories getting shut down), which is bound to cause some social difficulties (lots of workers losing their jobs), but overall China's not doing particularly bad compared to other countries (but no country is really doing all that well at the moment, with the recession and all).
Chinese stock market is a huge mess, though, but that doesn't really reflect their actual economy. That's mostly because of a relatively recent developement of regular people getting in on it (previously the stock market was a lot more tightly controlled by the goverment). Most of those people don't really have experiment with how the stock market works, which leads to very erratic swings in values of stock that have little do to with the situation in the real world.
>>45384820 Russia and China are competing regional powers but they also have compatible economic and military goals (i.e. expanding the economic potential of central Eurasia, reducing the Wests power in their spheres of influence and preventing the spread of dangerous democratic values). While there are lots of examples of this co-operation at work the clearest example is probably the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. So generally speaking their relationship is much more cordial than you would expect. It's hard to justify a resource war between China and Russia, in the modern world it is almost always easier to buy other people shit than take it by force and Russia's resource rich areas are particularly inaccessible.
>>45393573 >, but that doesn't really reflect their actual economy. That's mostly because of a relatively recent developement of regular people getting in on it (previously the stock market was a lot more tightly controlled by the goverment). You're right but there are additional things to explain.
The Chinese Stock market is still very tightly controlled compared to more conventional depictions. Companies wishing for an IPO are tightly vetted and you have to ask the government, hat in hand, to allow you to get on the market. This is rare. If you do manage to get onto the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the capital controls are tight, there are restrictions on domestic investments except for imports/exports, and there are many controls on foreign investment.
Additionally, the Communist Party of China explicitly reserves the right to intervene in any decision for its interests. This reservation is explicitly enshrined in the Constitution, which states to the effect that the Party's survival comes first, and even if it weren't, the judiciary has so many members of the Chinese Communist party for this purpose that judicial independence does not exist: No 'alternative parties' may exist in Mainland China.
These kind of capital controls leads to people buying companies for the fact that they can issue public stocks, or to enter completely unrelated fields. For instance, there is a Chinese company that used to wholesale fake hardwood floors that managed to get on the market. The company then decided that hardwood wholesale wasn't good enough and so became a bank. After a few years of that, they got bored with that and bought out a Chinese video game company. They are listed on the Shenzhen stock exchange, which is simpler than trying to get a new one listed.
There are innumerable instances where the Stock Market's"Chinese characteristics" make swings more volatile.
>>45385669 >Of course, Russia is collapsing into total irrelevance as we speak with a rapidly shrinking population and a joke economy, while China's star is rising, so it'll all fall into China's sphere soon enough. >If the Apocalypse takes place in the future, China will just wreck Russia completely and take whatever it likes
Well, it depends on the type of apocalypse. If what you said is true then there might not be enough Chinese left to conquer a mostly ignored Russia and Mongolia.
>>45391798 >China is the only thing keeping that shithole N Korea propped up, so then that all goes to hell to
More like the only thing keeping them from being steamrolled. As soon as China collapses, Littlest Kim will do something stupid and get pasted by countries that no longer have to worry about Best Korea's backer.
>>45391736 falling as a result of famine floods plagues war invasion hurricanes corruption inefficiency is a part of Chinese civilization so its going to get back together. fuck just imagine the death count if that were to happen
>>45392411 No one is used to the Siberian cold, but there's no way to march to Russia (even through Mongolia) without upsetting other states, and nobody likes China. Boats are a similar problem, because where are they gonna go? The Arctic? So then there's flying, another thing the Russia will make unbearable.
>>45391714 >China is an interesting case because it should be doing well on cheap oil ... it's instead doing something that -should- be a recoverable adjustment but instead looks vaguely around the edges like fucking imploding The problem is Chinese wages are going to be too high to capitalize on its workshop of the world status, while 9% GDP growth never can last forever. That is a sprinter, not a marathon runner.
>it turning into Africa 2: Africa Harder would be a very Bad Thing. It won't turn into Africa 2. China has infrastructure, developed business chains, and a party who has spent 90 years of its paranoid life learning to disrupt alternative movements or parties while maintaining an absolute hold on power. They have spent about 20 years now since 1991 in stark terror of the meaning of the Fall of the Berlin Wall and Tienanmen.
The primary way China will be remotely similar is if the infrastructure, skilled population, and Communist Party are totally smashed into pieces in an era of extreme competition.
No, what'll likely more happen in the event of a Chinese destabilization is something more like the post-dissolution era of the Russian Federation while all the social controls and engineering come spiralling apart like a windup clock snapping under the pressure. Chechnya, in other words. Expect battalions of BTRs rushing country highways, PAP units knocking down doors, and cadres revisiting Maoist era intelligence gathering methods .
>>45391799 >But power vacuums and civil war were how we got get the oil so cheap. No, it's not. War drives up the scarcity of oil since it is now a strategic asset along with all the necessary infrastructure. Therefore, it's subject to being destroyed or sanctioned. Even if you didn't care about the latter, avoiding the controls is a business cost.
>>45384820 What relations they have right now might very well become completely irrelevant after an apocalyptic event, given how the geopolitical, cultural, political, and economic factors influencing those relationships might change after it. Details, nigguh.
>>45385669 If China goes Apocalyptic, it's going to balkanize like the good old days. A few thousand Petty kingdoms run by bandit or warlords. It wouldn't be organized enough to take on Mongolia, much less Russia.
>>45399060 Not thorugh the DMZ ,aka the greatest minefield on earth. They'd rather run away to China. Interestingly enough, one of the cited reaons for the Chinese support of NK is that if the jurche regime fell, China would be knee-deep in a refugee crisis
>>45397929 its dangerous to give those people weapons that's the reason the monarchs didn't arm so many of their people against the French during the French revolutionary wars >>45399423 this absolutely they north koreas couldn't even cross the parallel because the north uses electrified fences which require special equipment to bypass and then you have the mien fields after hearing about a few thousand people getting messed up by that the people will head to china
>>45391867 My personal reading of how it works is that certain parts do a lot better than other parts of the world. During the colonial phase it was parts of western Europe at the expense of everyone, China and India cycle through those periods like a fucking merry-go-round, the USA and Canada have usually done better than South America by basically colonizing them in everything but name...
>>45384820 International relations anon here. Long short of it: Mongolia has a ton of natural resources, and China is keen to extract them. Mongolia tried to play their former protectors (Soviet Union) in the 20th century (now Russia) off China to keep themselves diplomatically and economically at arms length, but the disparity of economic power in the region (38 million people in Heilongjiang alone vs 26 million in the entirety of the Russian Far East District and Siberian Federal District combined) means that Mongolia cannot stop its drift into the Chinese sphere. Mining has done crazy things to Mongolian life, the steppe is being destroyed by resource extraction and everyone is moving to Ulaanbaatar (46% of the country population in 2013 and growing). If you are interested here are some articles from The Diplomat which both give a sense of politics and how life is changing:
>>45404784 Oh yeah, and the US is involved with trade, aid, and defence deals with Mongolia, it's even now part of the US's "Pivot to Asia". The US is their fourth largest trading partner and Mongolians fought in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The US is what their ambassador to the US called their "Third Neighbour".
>>45394641 Well, to be fair, the Czechoslovak Legion was a pretty crazy combat outfit with previous experience in the Great War. Also Russia was in the middle of a civil war at the time. I think Russia would be better able to defend the Trans-Siberian railroad in this day and age.
>>45391927 Bad harvests actually fuck up a lot of shit. Think of it as a small problem spread out over the entirety of the world. Billions of people have to pay a bit more for something utterly essential (food) and thus have less money to spend on technology, investments, housing, etc. IE, everything the developing world makes.
If it was just one region, it would be tolerable. But it was a bad harvest for most of the globe. that has a signifigant impact. Worse still, this wont be the last one, because there are still plenty of people who are climate change deniers and thus the sort of changes you would need to make to account for those global changes are not happening. So its probably gonna be another bad year next year or the one after that too.
Now thats not the whole of it, obviously. But its a good part of it.
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