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Anonymous

This... 2016-01-16 18:20:36 Post No. 7788333

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This... 2016-01-16 18:20:36 Post No. 7788333

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this is just a meme right?

Some sort of joke that mathematicians tell eachother and have a great time when people act like they've understood it, right? RIGHT?

>>

>cant comprehend basic probabilities

>>

Suppose there are 1000 doors

The host opens all but two and the one you selected

Do you switch?

Now reduce the number of total doors to three

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>>7788333

They did a MythBusters episode on this, apparently it actually works.

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>>7788333

I have one of the easiest explanations:

If you guess right the first time, you have to stay to your choice to get the right door.

If you guessed wrong, you have to switch.

Basic probability says:

1/3 times you are right from the first time.

So 1/3 times you need to stay, 2/3 times you need to switch. So: switch to get it 66% of the times correct.

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>>7788355

Oh shit, I think you actully just made me get this thing. It's been tormenting me since Twilight.

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>>7788361

>Running a physical experiment to 'prove' a trivially provable mathematical fact

Fucking normies bring the quality of the show down, no wonder it's ending

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>>7788948

It was never oh high quality.

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>>7788355

Wrong analogy. In the 1000 door scenario the host opens only 1 door.

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>>7788388

If you're having trouble explaining to people just increase the number of doors and they give up on there intuition.

Nobody is going to say stick when there are a 1000 doors initially and the host opens 998 other doors.

Or at least if you did you're probably stupid enough to warrant scientific investigation.

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>>7788333

There are 3 doors

If the door you chose didn't have a Goat, then the other 2 doors has goats behind them and the one you chose has the car.

You wouldn't change doors, you chose the car.

Its pretty simple

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>>7788333

Think about it, when the host opens door 3 instead of door 2 he gives you the information that there it is less probable that door 2 hides a goat.

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Probability is a meme.

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Everyone claims their explanation is the easiest, but anyway here is mine.

The crucial fact is that the host cannot reveal the door that you have already chose.

All other doors had an equal chance of being revealed, while the initial pick had not.

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It's also possible to write simple programs that numerically demonstrate the fact that switching is better.

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It's ez. Consider the following:

Pick door 1 chance of winning is 1/3

Pick door 2 and 3 chance of winning is 2/3.

I don't see how you cannot understand. Picking 2 doors is always better than picking one.

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>>7790825

Follow up, I presume it's because most people assume the chance after a door opens becomes 1/2 of the car being behind a door, while in reality it stays 1/3 for door one, and by switching you gain a 2/3 chance.

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