this is just a meme right?
Some sort of joke that mathematicians tell eachother and have a great time when people act like they've understood it, right? RIGHT?
I have one of the easiest explanations:
If you guess right the first time, you have to stay to your choice to get the right door.
If you guessed wrong, you have to switch.
Basic probability says:
1/3 times you are right from the first time.
So 1/3 times you need to stay, 2/3 times you need to switch. So: switch to get it 66% of the times correct.
Oh shit, I think you actully just made me get this thing. It's been tormenting me since Twilight.
If you're having trouble explaining to people just increase the number of doors and they give up on there intuition.
Nobody is going to say stick when there are a 1000 doors initially and the host opens 998 other doors.
Or at least if you did you're probably stupid enough to warrant scientific investigation.
There are 3 doors
If the door you chose didn't have a Goat, then the other 2 doors has goats behind them and the one you chose has the car.
You wouldn't change doors, you chose the car.
Its pretty simple
Everyone claims their explanation is the easiest, but anyway here is mine.
The crucial fact is that the host cannot reveal the door that you have already chose.
All other doors had an equal chance of being revealed, while the initial pick had not.
It's ez. Consider the following:
Pick door 1 chance of winning is 1/3
Pick door 2 and 3 chance of winning is 2/3.
I don't see how you cannot understand. Picking 2 doors is always better than picking one.
Follow up, I presume it's because most people assume the chance after a door opens becomes 1/2 of the car being behind a door, while in reality it stays 1/3 for door one, and by switching you gain a 2/3 chance.