What was you're aoty 2014

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What was you're aoty 2014

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50%

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25%

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>jennydeathrecordingbudget.jpg

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50%?

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Benji

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>>53573590

Oh shit. I should've read it all the way through. 50%

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Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

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Sent ;)

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>>53573539

1/3

>>53573660

yes

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>>53573660

Yes, because your choice is now 50-50.

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If your AOTY was not this or To Be Kind, you are wrong.

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>>53573660

>2013 + 2

>Not knowing the Monty Hall problem

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50%

AT LEAST ONE

Will be 50% if there's 1 billion coins

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>>53573660

>>53573703

>>53573704

No, it isn't.

VSauce niggas.

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>>53573732

I clearly know it

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>>53573746

Are you, and I'm genuinely inquiring here, literally retarded?

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>>53573703

correct, use Bayes theorem. The question would be clearer if it was less ambiguous, say "given that at least one coin will land heads" instead of "given that at least one of the coins landed heads"

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>>53573794

yea but you're implying we don't know it...

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>>53573539

It's random. So 50%.

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White Suns: Totem

Followed closely by Swans: To Be Kind

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>>53574199

Where do you think you are

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>>53573703

>1/3

2/3

you know you're stupid when you know it's a trick question (sorta) and you still get it wrong.

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Giant Claw - Dark Web

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>>53574341

>[T.T]

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>>53574341

here's your reply

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Let's assume (because why the fuck not) that every coin toss is independent to each other.

Define these two events:

A="two coins landed heads"

B="at least one coin landed head"

Omega={(head, head),(head,tail),(tail,head),(tail,tail)}

P(A)=1/4

P(B)=P(getting one head)+P(getting two heads)=2/4+1/4 = 3/4

P(A|B)=P(A,B)/P(B)=P(A)/P(B) = 1/4 / 3/4 = 1/3

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>>53574285

no it's 1/3 retard

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>>53574416

Dat Bayes

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It's 1/3, but also a badly worded question. Answer is 1/2 to anyone who reasons through things like a normal person, but the math book says otherwise.

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>>53574536

How is it badly worded? I don't see any ambiguity in the way it's worded.

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>>53574584

it is ambiguous in that we do not know if one coin has already landed heads or if at least one coin will land heads.

In the first case it is 1/2

In the second case it is 1/3

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>>53573660

2/3 chance you chose a goat on your first pick, meaning if the host reveals one of the other doors to be a goat, you are better off changing your pick because there is a 2/3 chance you are currently on a goat.

>>53573893

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>>53573568

This shit. Blew my mind first time I heard it. In my top 4 all time right now

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>>53574416

So for someone who knows little probability maths like me, this question is saying there are three possible flips:

(Head,head) (Head, tail) (tail, head), all of which have equal probability, meaning the chance of double heads is 1 in 3

(right?)

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>>53574416

Baye caught me guessin

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>>53573621

Fucking retard

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>>53573568

This has grown on me more than anything from last year. Thought it was good.. now think it's probably the best thing he's ever done.

Benji for AOTY though.

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Considering one is guaranteed to be heads, you really only need to worry about one coin, so 50%

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>>53577012

wait a second. I just realized why this logic is flawed.

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>>53573660

no fucking way

i'd be slimming my chances of getting a goat

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>>53573568

Agreed, can't wait to see him in April

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Black Messiah

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RTJ2 FUCCBOIS

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>>53577039

it's correct

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>>53574416

This is overcomplicated.

One coin got heads, but there's no reason to bring it into the equation. The other coin has a 50% chance of getting heads no matter what. So it's 50%.

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>>53573746

VSauce a shit

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1. th *

2. tt

3. hh *

4. ht *

1. th

2. hh *

3. ht

1/3

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>>53577525

no, this post (>>53576446) sums it up accurately

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Jenny Death

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You need to use Bayes Theorem

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>>53576958

u mad bro?

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>>53577612

Or just consider the probability space since there are only four outcomes.

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