What was you're aoty 2014

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>>53573539

50%

25%

>jennydeathrecordingbudget.jpg

50%?

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>>53573574

Benji

>>53573590
Oh shit. I should've read it all the way through. 50%

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Sent ;)

>>53573539
1/3
>>53573660
yes

>>53573660
Yes, because your choice is now 50-50.

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If your AOTY was not this or To Be Kind, you are wrong.

>>53573660
>2013 + 2
>Not knowing the Monty Hall problem

50%

AT LEAST ONE

Will be 50% if there's 1 billion coins

>>53573660
>>53573703
>>53573704
No, it isn't.
VSauce niggas.

>>53573732
I clearly know it

>>53573746
Are you, and I'm genuinely inquiring here, literally retarded?

>>53573703
correct, use Bayes theorem. The question would be clearer if it was less ambiguous, say "given that at least one coin will land heads" instead of "given that at least one of the coins landed heads"

>>53573794
yea but you're implying we don't know it...

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>>53573539
It's random. So 50%.

White Suns: Totem

Followed closely by Swans: To Be Kind

>>53574199
Where do you think you are

>>53573703
>1/3
2/3
you know you're stupid when you know it's a trick question (sorta) and you still get it wrong.

Giant Claw - Dark Web

>>53574341
>[T.T]

>>53574341
here's your reply

Let's assume (because why the fuck not) that every coin toss is independent to each other.

Define these two events:
A="two coins landed heads"
B="at least one coin landed head"

Omega={(head, head),(head,tail),(tail,head),(tail,tail)}
P(A)=1/4
P(B)=P(getting one head)+P(getting two heads)=2/4+1/4 = 3/4

P(A|B)=P(A,B)/P(B)=P(A)/P(B) = 1/4 / 3/4 = 1/3

>>53574285
no it's 1/3 retard

>>53574416
Dat Bayes

It's 1/3, but also a badly worded question. Answer is 1/2 to anyone who reasons through things like a normal person, but the math book says otherwise.

>>53574536
How is it badly worded? I don't see any ambiguity in the way it's worded.

>>53574584
it is ambiguous in that we do not know if one coin has already landed heads or if at least one coin will land heads.

In the first case it is 1/2
In the second case it is 1/3

>>53573660
2/3 chance you chose a goat on your first pick, meaning if the host reveals one of the other doors to be a goat, you are better off changing your pick because there is a 2/3 chance you are currently on a goat.
>>53573893

>>53573568
This shit. Blew my mind first time I heard it. In my top 4 all time right now

>>53574416
So for someone who knows little probability maths like me, this question is saying there are three possible flips:
(Head,head) (Head, tail) (tail, head), all of which have equal probability, meaning the chance of double heads is 1 in 3
(right?)

>>53574416
Baye caught me guessin

>>53573621
Fucking retard

>>53573568

This has grown on me more than anything from last year. Thought it was good.. now think it's probably the best thing he's ever done.

Benji for AOTY though.

Considering one is guaranteed to be heads, you really only need to worry about one coin, so 50%

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>>53577012

>>53577012
wait a second. I just realized why this logic is flawed.

>>53573660
no fucking way
i'd be slimming my chances of getting a goat

>>53573568
Agreed, can't wait to see him in April

Black Messiah

RTJ2 FUCCBOIS

>>53577039
it's correct

>>53574416

This is overcomplicated.

One coin got heads, but there's no reason to bring it into the equation. The other coin has a 50% chance of getting heads no matter what. So it's 50%.

>>53573746
VSauce a shit

1. th *
2. tt
3. hh *
4. ht *


1. th
2. hh *
3. ht

1/3

>>53577525
no, this post (>>53576446) sums it up accurately

Jenny Death

You need to use Bayes Theorem

>>53576958
u mad bro?

>>53577612
Or just consider the probability space since there are only four outcomes.

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>>53574272
nice