A few months ago I made a risk map for FO4.
Claim factions like this:
>Federation of Memel
>blue bit on the map, pic related
>Confederate States of America
>bottom left corner
The CSA expands in all directions
La Isla Bonita Pepes expand west to take the captial closest to us, spills to immediate north to try to get that capital and fill that knob of land, if possible.
CSA expands to the capital to the north of us, by the lake