Lets say that the Archduke never gets killed. What would have

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>>517611
WW1 was planned by Germany for a long time
The assassination just gave them a pretexte to pressure Austria into starting the shit

Some other silly little thing in the Balkans.

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When in doubt, you can always count on unrest in the Balkans having something to do with it.

>>517611
I just wrote a large paper on this, and can name a couple of reasons.

Of course there are many historians who goes with the idea that Germany were going to start a war regardless, which is based on the fact that Germany was basicly walled in by the triple-entrente. Germany at the time had an advantage over its enemies, in terms of industrial and millitary power. For them it was a matter of "We need to attack our enemies, before they get too stong and attack us".

Meanwhile all the other great powers were playing with their muscles at each other.

>>517611
Who else getting killed might spark the war?

>>517800
It doesn't (didn't?) need to be an assassination. There had been numerous conflicts boiling up over colonial possessions in Africa for instance that could have sparked all out conflict. Hell, Germany and France almost went to war over the Kaiser pledging full support to Moroccan independence fighters in an open letter.

>>517720
Everyone in Europe was preparing for war, you would have to have been retarded not to

I think it's likely it would have started soon ish anyway, particularly if you look at the rate of industrialisation in Russia, and the impact this would have on the balance of power

>>517611
The attempted assassination of the Archduke

>>517720
And so it was by the Russians, the French and the Brits.
Literally everybody knew shit was going down, they just didn't know when

>>517611
By that point it would be inevitable that an ultimatum would be served anyway just to instigate the serbs into saying no. Im sure the Austro Hungarians would have just gone ahead with it anyway regardless of having a dead Archduke.

Probably something fucky with the Ottomans. ie; more balkan shit

>>517720
>WW1 was planned by Germany for a long time
Complete unhistorical nonsense backed by nothing.

Germany literally went into the war without any sort of strategic goal. They only came up with them around 1915 after to their own surprise they were quite successful against Europe.

>>519027
Schlieffen plan existed since 1905
All nations planned for war against their neighbours

>>519263
Of course they had military plans. Such plans even exist today as "what-if" scenarios in pretty much any nation. However, they had no goals they wanted to realise through war. The idea that Germany went into the war with some political ambition is factually wrong because most of the plans were only come up with well into the war.