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Would switching increase your odds /g/entlemen?
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Thread replies: 33
Thread images: 6
Would switching increase your odds /g/entlemen?
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>>52506101
yes
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>>52506101
By reswithing the first one you are having the same odds than switching to the 2nd one, so nope.
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It would, based on mathematical chance.
In reality not so much
fuck off
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>>52506106
>>52506101
No 2 doors left 50% chance of your door being correct
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One door has goats the other has one goat so no its still 50/50
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>>52506101
yes
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>>52506101
It would increase your odds of getting the car.
>Implying that you do not want the goat.
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>>52506106
>>52506156
Why would you think that?
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>>52506101
Yes, see Bayes' theorem.
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>>52506162
I did an experiment.

>>52506123
Your reasoning is flawed.
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We've all heard of the Monty Hall problem, anon. Switching is indeed the correct strategy.

For the losers above, try googling it. The remaining two aren't 50-50 as the host will always have picked a goat
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>>52506112
>>52506123
>>52506132
The host will always pick a door containing a goat and never pick your door, so the odds of the other door containing the car are 2/3 compared to your choice of 1/3.
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>>52506162
There are three scenarios. In two you picked a goat in the beginning, the host shows you the other goat, so if you switch you get the car. In the third scenario you picked the car, the host shows one of the two goats, if you switch you get a goat. the chance of getting the car when switching is 66.6%.
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>>52506184
If the host will always have picked a goat, doesnt that mean door 1 always has a 50% chance you boon
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>>52506205
Just because you have only two options does not mean they both have 50% chance
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>>52506123
>>52506132
>>52506205
gb2 school.

your chances of having a goat on your first pick are 2/3 compared to 1/3 for a car.
the host knows what's behind each door and he has to reveal the second goat
switching is the correct way to increase your chance of winning.
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>>52506198
Another way of thinking about it is that the initial chance that you pick a goat the first time is 2/3. So it is more likely that you picked a goat in the first place. Since one goat is removed every time. It is more likely that the the other door contains the car, since you are more likely to sit on the goat from the start.
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>>52506203
Your theory is flawed anon
The car is always is door 1
Scenario 1
You pick 1, host opens 3 switch loses
You pick 2, host opens 3 switch wins
You pick 3 host opens 2 switch wins
This is where your brain ends, BUT
You pick 1 host opens 2 switch loses

There u go fgts 50%
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>>52506242
Why did you pick door 1 twice and other doors only once?
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>>52506205
>>52506205
Think of it this way.
The odds of door 1 being right are 1 in 3 at the start of the game.

The host will always pick one of the remaining doors that has a goat. You know that before the game starts, so it doesn't change anything. Your odds are still 1 in 3.
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>>52506242
That's not how it works anon. It doesn't matter which door he opens when you picked the car at the start.
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>>52506252
I didnt pick door 1 twice, i described possible scenarios.

Door 1 has 2 scenarios because the other 2 doors have goats, door 2 has 1 scenario because only door 3 has a goat same applies for door 3. Therefore there are 4 scenarios of which 2 will grant you a car, 50%
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>it's a ruseman knows the correct answer but pretends to be dumb as fuck for 200+ posts while others try to "convince" him
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>>52506310
The random event of you picking the door has 3 scenarios. The random event of host picking either goat A or goat B has 2 scenarios. Those are different random events and you can't lump them together. You have to use conditional probability instead of just counting all favorable scenarios and dividing by number of all possible scenarios - and if you do that you arrive at 1/3 and 2/3, not 50%.
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This also makes more sense if you have 100 doors and the guy opens 98 of them.
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>>52506360
I would definitely get suspicious if this was to happen.
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>>52506101
The host knows the trick and will offer you to switch only if you picked the right one to begin with. So by switching doors you're guaranteed to loose. Unless you actually want the goat, and there is nothing wrong with that. They're wondrous creatures.
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>>52506101
No, goats are better than cars.
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>>52506184
Switching is the right strategy only if you want the goat, see >>52507265
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>>52506115
>In reality not so much
Nigga experimental evidence was what finally convinced all those scientists that vos Savant was right.
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>>52506101
What's the point of posting this, everyone knows the answer, people posting the wrong answer are just pretending to be dumb.
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Still unsure about my answer
Thread replies: 33
Thread images: 6
Thread DB ID: 447087



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