I'm trying to figure out a flowchart for this process of wrong betting. I hope i'm on the right board to do this. If i'm not please refer me to a better place.
This is a strategy of betting in the game of craps. My goal is to create a Computer program that will replicate this process in order to test to see if this author is full of shit or not. The problem is, is that i'm not sure if i have my flowchart drawn correctly. I came here to get a second opinion on this.
OP here. 4chan's servers crashed on my side. I'll finish uploading the rest of the documents
that's what i thought too. The case that he set down is only one instance which is why i want to test this solution. But of course i need to make sure the steps for his solution make sense.
It's not a 'solution'
It's a system that operates on the assumption that prior distinctly random events predicate or predict future random events.
Since that doesn't obey the laws of physics and violates entropy the premise is therefore false.
Given enough random events the house will always hold the edge.
Here's my flowchart. Since it was the point of this post to begin with.
Yes. Thats what im saying. The entire thing boils down to the assumption that preceding random events predict future random events. This is the gambler's fallacy and it is proben to be a fallacy.
Heres the truth of the thing. If this guy's betting system ACTUALLY worked, why would he publish it so that everyone and their uncle knew it. If EVERYONE started beating the house on craps, the house would modify the game to regain the edge or just stop offering a losing game. The very fact he's published this book proves that his system doesn't work.
>the assumption that preceding random events
Since OP wants to simulate shit, it might be mildly interesting to simulate the case where the random events actually aren't fully random. That is, the dice are weighted or something.
The main reason this seems like it might not instantly explode is the betting system, where you either end up slightly up, or you double down every loss until you lose all the way.
In a fair gambling game, someone who starts with twice as much money is 4 times as likely to leave with all of it because other people don't stop betting until they run out. The house has basically infinite money compared to you.
That said, I have heard that you can get craps betting down to fair, where the odds and payout are the same. so combined with the betting system you will end up where you started, on average (well, unless you play until you lose every trip.)