What does /biz/ think of Turtle Trading? I was at like a 2 hour talk earlier where a guy was pushing it really fucking hard and it's got me curious.
The fact that the people giving the talk were more interested in spending two hours telling people about Turtle Trading or whatever than actually growing their own portfolios should tell you all you need to know about this "system". They probably do not get rich from buying and selling stocks. They get rich from selling books and seminars.
I made an easy 15k shorting Guac bowl shares as soon as I saw Jeb! touching them.
>lol was she trying to sell his "system" at the same time?
Actually no, he sounded like a con artist but he wasn't really trying to sell anything, he mentioned that he does some tutoring but it was more of an off-hand comment while he was slagging off places like Learn2Trade.
>The point of the Turtle Trading program is to show how most people will be unable to make money even with profitable strategies, proven so in the long term.
True, that's what the guy at the talk spent quite some time pushing, is there any source for the shock statistics that something like 95% of traders eventually lose all of the money they've invested?
Alright OP, sit down and listen
I don't think TT system works anymore. In the 80s futures used to have spectacular trends who used to make new highs or new lows with little retracements. A lot of guys got rich during that time, and you could have become a millionaire in months simply by buying the highs and selling the lows.
Now, i'm not saying breakout systems no longer work. I have backtested TT and various breakout models. They worked only when you have very strong trends, they tend to fuck you when market goes sideways.
Protip: learn to identify trend markets and lateral markets. Build stategies you can use on both type of markets. Learn multitimeframe analysis. Learn the fundamentals and the correlations of your asset class
>pushing it really fucking hard
Obviously he is shilling something, but turtle trading was a success for a few years until the market changed, then the algorithms stopped working.
You are always competing with other investors who can price things in faster than you. Professionals who have done this for years and have l33t programming skills and shit, they know far more about this than us and so turtle trading is probably obsolete, but it is an interesting meme to look at if you judge it on its merits. If there is anything to it then you would have to build on it some more and discover something your competitors haven't.
>I don't think TT system works anymore.
>turtle trading was a success for a few years until the market changed, then the algorithms stopped working.
Pic related is from the presentation he gave (I imaged to get my hands on the slides), can anyone source the content, or tell me if it's just total bullshit?
They are not using the original Turtle. All of these are more or less trend followers, in this case Turtle simply means buying or selling new lows and trailing the profits accordingly. As simple as it seems, the devil is in the details (which means, every single one of them has proprietary developed filters/risk management modules/way to determine the asset class accordingly, which is why performances differ among traders).
And no, not bullshit, you can google the individual names to see the respective audited performance.
Mind you, these guys run hundreds of millions, and as such they need to prioritize capital preservation over growth. Their size also prevents them from getting in and out of market as they please. There is no doubt that a single investor can do way better, provided you could copy the exact strategies they are using.
The takeaway concept is that trend following WORKS. With a few filters and some good diy backtests you could put on a trend following strategy yourself and have a very good chance of succeeding (provided you can stand the low win rate, the long periods of time without taking new positions and so on)
My 2 cents? All of these guys in the list use proprietary methods (although based on the same concept), and no amount of money you will pay them is going to convince them to tell you how they do it.
Still, if the guy doing the course has some track record, i'd say he is being honest. But i would never give away my strategy, not even if they paid me handsomely.
Eventually it's up to you, but i'd say he is legit
>is there any source for the shock statistics that something like 95% of traders eventually lose all of the money they've invested?
many professional traders believe that statement.
The truth is that 95% of untrained traders lose money. You have to be trained to trade in order to be successful. Or, just have fantastic luck all during your career.
>95% of untrained traders lose money
I'd throw in under or unprepared as well.
The vast majority of these people lack sufficient capital, time, or both.
Yet they're always included in such surveys.
I just know that there's no fucking way they're controlling for 8+ hours a day of work, $XX,000 minimum starting cap, etc., no matter what survey.
By definition, they're including a lot of amputees competing in marathons.
trend following works, but these days it is done most successfully by guys with PhDs in Statistics etc.. working at large CTAs
see firms like Winton, AHL, Aspect Capital, Systematica etc.. they manage billions each essentially using a trend following system
they're continually long or short several dozen futures markets and/or FX forwards and they have a rather small edge from that process - still it seems to work, at least it has done for them for some years now - founder of Winton was one of the founders of AHL and the founders of Aspect were the other founders of AHL - together those funds manage huge sums simply trend following in futures markets
The thing was, trend-following systems *were* an edge in the 80s. Others traded on gut instinct, fundamentals, etc., and only the most disciplined of those made money.
Richard Dennis' hypothesis was that if I give a bunch of untrained traders a half-decent system and they stick to it, they'll make money. That hypothesis was largely proven correct.
That does *not* imply that the original turtle trading system still works today. It merely implies that risk management and stop loss discipline is key to the execution of any successful strategy, whether it be a $100M supercomputer with fiber-optic links to the exchange, or throwing darts at a list of stocks.
It's really that simple. It doesn't take an 150 IQ to analyze the markets, but it does take a ton of discipline to be successful as a trader. Most beginners are not ok with a 50% accuracy, they drop good strategies after a few losses, even if the expected return would pay off the losses in the long term.
The human brain is not designed for trading, read "Thinking Fast and Slow" if you wanna know more about the human psychology behind financial decisions.