How is the illegal immigrant crisis in Europe going to affect the respective economies?
Let's assume no civil war breaks out (if it doesn idgaf about this money), it goes out with a fizzle, everybody gets cucked and taxes raised for these poor women and children (pic related).
Will increased taxation and subsequent spending on social housing, cheap consumer goods etc. cause growth in EU markets? Or will they grind into a communism-induced halt like the USSR? What if rich people skip town and move to AUS/USA/Asia?
it's a serious question, /pol/ will probably just blame the jews and say the happening is happening soon so money doesn't matter, it's for jews anyway.
This is obviously going to have some sort of impact one way or another, and I have maybe €15,000 in EU markets so I'm wondering about this.
I suppose you would have to see if the immigrants are net benefit or detriment on the economies in their respective hosting countries based on their productivity, cash spent on goods and taxes compared to what they take out from the government in the form of services. Shouldn't be too tough to track down history of immigrant economics in those countries. Can also look at past immigration waves (say, instances of several thousand refugees in a local area at one time) and the effects they had on the regional economies.
Never studied euro immigrant economics but impacts and results should be not too difficult to find
Yes, it strongly depends on what skills are in demand. I live in a small Austrian town and recently a Syrian refugee started working at a hairdresser for men here and the owners told me they are happy to have him because they could not find any Austrians for this job. But I guess that is one of the fewer examples where it worked out well. In general I think they are not suited very well for an economy that relies heavily on manufacturing.
What also matters is the willingness to work oneself up from the bottom. Romanian guy moved here with his family in the early 90s. Didn't speak the language but worked hard. After some years it started to pay off and when I saw him driving around in his new Audi one day i was really happy for him. Then there was the Albanian guy who moved here with his family. Told me "In Austria you not need work, just make boom boom" What he meant was that just from making some kids he would get enough money from the government. Obviously you don't want trash like that coming to your country.
I just hope there are more Syrians coming that are like the Romanian guy...
>you would have to see if the immigrants are net benefit or detriment on the economies
even if you completely ignore their abysmal education, incompatible culture and hostile religion - europe simply does not have excess demand for unskilled labor.
what it will do is pretty straightforward
>state spending goes up
>taxation goes up
>standard of living drops
>begin to slowly spiral into mediocrity and stagnation
over time (will probably take a few decades to fully manifest) the deteriorating economic situation and the continuously increasing exploitation of the natives for the benefit of hostile foreigners will induce an exodus of upper class and upper middle class people, further accelerating the overall decline.
if (or how long) the situation will stay stable isn't easily predictable. if it goes unstable, the resulting backlash and turmoil might fuck up the economy real bad. if it stays stable, you're facing slow and steady decline.
either way, if you're looking for long-term investments, look elsewhere.
Everything I've read on the subject seems to agree that it is a solid economic decision in the long term, personally I believe this is Merkel's true motivation.
Not just because of more labour and consumption, but also studies show diverse workplaces solve problems and innovate more efficiently.
There will be short term costs, but 3 generations from now Europe will be much better off economically because of the migrants. Culturally is another question.
Well here's an actual study, but it's rather long, and there are more too if you look at the references of this study. How about you show some evidence that it's horse shit?
> Empirical research on whether and how diversity is actually related to work group functioning is limited, however, and the evidence is mixed
This is probably going to be the case, whoever is advising Merkel on economic policy needs to explain where all these jobs for the migrants will come from. With outsourcing and increasing automation in the workforce the labor market need for low-skilled labor jobs will only continue to decrease in the coming years. The main reason they want to bring these people in is so there is a workforce to tax and support all the old German's socialist retirement benefit programs. However, what happens when there are not enough jobs for the migrants to earn income for the government to tax?
how? literally how?
Every single article I've read about the issue that tried to force the idea that it is an economically sound decision always seemed to be extremely contradictory, and ignoring huge obvious flaws.
Can you point me out any study that you find that defend this idea soundly?
Just buy gold.
Land, bernie can tax you on.
Money, bernie can seize.
Stocks, bernie can seize.
Gold? Bernie can't take it from you.
Buy gold, hide it, bury it under floorboards, hide it in the insulation,
>still falling for the "we need more workers" meme
top kek, if that were the case they could use the legions of unemployed Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, French, or Greek Youth to work in Germany, most of them probably already speak English and share a similar culture, but apparently what teh high tech german economy needs is a bunch of ex-fig farmers turned militiamen
These are refugees, NOT immigrants.
Immigrants are hard working people who are willing to risk everything and start at the bottom in a nation that they willingly choose. They take pride in their choice and work hard to climb the ladder for their children; that's why they left their country in the first place. Refugees are average people who already put in their time in work/school and think they deserve a good lifestyle.
Immigrants outweigh their cons with hard work and a willingness to do the jobs nobody else will. Refugees aren't necessarily bad people (plenty of these ones are, unrelated), but they're awful in bulk.
It's more like you want things to go bad and arrange your assumptions accordingly.
Why not assume that the welfare states manages to reform themselves? The social democrats in Germany managed to reform in 2003-2005 - years before the Syrian civil war.
Consider this: A crisis says that you either reform or suffer. Before Pearl Harbor, USN and USMC was two really, really bad jokes. USN couldn't defend the eastern seabord from german submarines. USMC was only good for giving natives a trashing. If USN and USMC continued on the same tangent after Pearl Harbor, no one would know about them today.
Relative worth is constantly diminishing.
Is not hewn from rock.