I own a small house in a desirable market (a nice part of Seattle) and I want to move into a bigger house a little bit outside of the city. I feel like the market is in a huge bubble right now (bought the house six years ago for $350k, did no work to it, am confident it will sell for $575-600k now). I probably don't want to spend more than $800k on the new place. Do I sell my place now and rent a place for a bit to see if the bubble bursts, or is it retarded to try and time the market? My next place will hopefully be a place I'm in for 10+ years, so maybe I shouldn't worry too much if I buy at a high point?
Increased interest rates and slowing technology profits will make the bubble burst.
I would suggest to get out if possible. Also, put the extra money in the markets with focus on US stocks and developing nations (India, western africa), maybe 5% in gold.
You will be able to retire a lot sooner by getting out of this bubble. I would wager that firms will look to other nations, as the next China and look to industrialize, so India and Western Africa are prime targets. If you get lucky, you will become very wealthy, so I would avoid getting any bigger of a house than you need.
The suburbs I'm looking at (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue) all have pretty large tech company presence, so their housing markets are pretty strong relative to Seattle. It is definitely possible though that I could find something that fits my needs for much less than $800k. That number is really just the most I'd feel comfortable spending.
If I'm planning to buy again after the bubble crash (which may or may not happen?), I don't know that I want to dump a bunch of cash into the markets.
There are supposed to be over a million new people living in Seattle proper by 2040.
I would personally hold onto it. Especially if it is a desirable neighborhood close to downtown in a historic area.