If I was to put 1000 dollars on NYMEX crude oil at roughly 30 bucks a barrel and waited a year or so what is the likely hood oil failing? Will oil always be this cheap?
First off, you're not buying crude with 1000$. You're not even close to the margin requirement. Secondly, it's a good bet but trying to run a directional when you have no clue on what youre doing is bound to backfire. So yes op. Go buy some.
so when do the bandages from 2008 come off alex?
The fundamentals of oil haven't changed significantly.
Demand is rising as economy grows and renewables aren't enough to suppress demand growth in oil, since it's mostly transportation.
Supply wise it's been growing, at a steady rate. It's up to OPEC and oil producing countries. I'm betting on Saudi Arabia not continuing its temper tantrum and slashing production at another OPEC meeting at some point.
Plus if peak oil is a thing, sooner or later prices will skyrocket. Now's the best time in years to grab this opportunity.
oil will probs stay low. There is a lot of supply out there and the supply will only slacken off when the dilapidated facilities in the likes of Venezuela and Russia actually break or the bores that the frackers have made run dry. In the meantime Iran is starting to pump. There are still mega projects in the pipline which were started in the heady days that need to come on line which will increase production. And lets be honest, why would demand increase? Cars are getting more fuel efficient, there are moves to clean energy production in the west, China is a slow moving disaster, the Indians just burn coal, and fuck africa.
1. The fundamentals of energy supply have changed, mainly there is a lot of gas replacing oil.
2. Peak oil isn't a thing, stop trying to make it a thing.
I'm not saying its likely m8. But nothing is a certainty. I don't rule out any outcome entirely.
Iran just entered the market though, and is probably going to modernize and shit on Saudi hard to wreck them as the hegemonic power. Sanctions gone.
Also the Economy isn't growing. Hello? China?
No meant are you serious? Oh noes etc really happening?
>First off, you're not buying crude with 1000$. You're not even close to the margin requirement. Secondly, it's a good bet but trying to run a directional when you have no clue on what youre doing is bound to backfire. So yes op. Go buy some.
You sir are only partly right. If the op were to be a dumbfuck inbred like yourself and buy into the NYMEX yes fucking moronic decision. Trading on the FOREX however makes thing smore interesting considering every broker on the FOREX will leverage you to a certain extent on every single trade, allowing you to trade in most channels with a mere $100 let alone $10000
Most of oil is used for transportation. Tesla doesn't seem like it's taking off quickly enough for me to be concerned in the long run, maybe the next decade or so.
I don't mean peak oil in the meme sense, just common sense. The cost of extracting oil will increase as the cheapest forms of extraction run out.
Yes, all this has risk. Maybe ethanol or a new oil substitute will be invented. Maybe the increase in extraction cost won't outpace the increase in supply. All investing is risk.
World consumes/produces about 96 million barrels a day. Iran wants to increase output by 500,000 barrels a day, and it'll take months to do this.
>referring to crude oil as "crude"
>referring to headphones as "cans"
>referring to desktop computers as "rigs"
When will the pain stop.
So do we expect oil prices to skyrocket as reserves start to run out or are alternative energy sources likely to overtake a large enough part of the market by then that it won't matter until one day oil collapses completely?
An account which was being used for trading SPI200, a very nice movement in the market this day resulted in a large Net PL slightly before China's bubble had popped, very good timing, luck played a larger role than predictions in my decision to move with this instrument at this time.
Point for me of foreign exchange market is to move through channels otherwise impossible to you... By means of large brokerage fees or no leverage on very large markets
Actually, you proved yourself retarded with this post. I'm not the poster you are calling dumb, but I dont even know where to begin with your post.
First off, anyone who trades with the CME margin for crude oil is taking a significant risk from the start and isn't looking to up their leverage even more. This margin is usually around 10:1 (~$4500 margin to control the 1000 barrels)
Now of course, if the price drops some then the CME will call for the trader to deposit more cash to bring their maintenance margin up to the required level.
Also, delivery date is an important aspect too because you can't just hop in and buy a contract of oil, because if you do this and don't pay attention to what month of delivery you are buying, next thing you know you are gonna have your broker calling you asking where to deliver the 1000 barrels of oil.
Now point #2. Do you even fucking know the tick value of a crude oil contract? Let's say you are trading a CFD for crude oil from one of these FOREX brokers. What the fuck do you think is gonna happen if the price moves a little bit with your shitty $100 shoestring? You really think you can nail the price reversal with less than 10 cents of risk ($100) or even 20 cents (if you are trading the mini) ?
Then of course there is the whole poorly regulated practices aspect of trading commodity CFD's with forex brokers, but I'm almost certain you have never even traded anything to do with crude oil.
You are an idiot.
"FOREX however makes things more interesting"
Yeah, like trading in a market that has almost no crude oil volume and piss poor CFD liquidity, plus if the price moves 30 cents against you, your entire suggested margin of $100 is wiped out, and you owe the broker some change too.
I'm still laughing at how you called buying into the WTI/CL on the NYMEX a moronic decision as opposed to FOREX. Please respond, I can't wait for you to show even more of your ignorance.
>First off, anyone who trades with the CME margin for crude oil is taking a significant risk from the start...
Fair enough, but I would say trading outside of stable sectors is risky business by definition regardless of opinion or experience
>Also, delivery date is an important aspect too
>Your broker calling you asking where to deliver the 1000 barrels of oil.
>Owe the broker some change too
First I do not know how you get these assumptions (with a legitimate forex broker)
You are only required to cover your spread... All the rollovers are dealt with by your brokerage. Your fee is your spread on the position... you will NEVER owe the broker anything
>your entire suggested margin of $100 is wiped out
I never suggested a $100 margin let alone suggested it for oil....learn to read. I said "allowing you to trade in most channels with a mere $100 let alone $10000"
>WTI/CL on the NYMEX a moronic decision as opposed to FOREX
>"FOREX however makes things more interesting"
I only cover a tiny spread on most instruments I deal with. 35k position nets 17k (SC above) with what I recall a 5 point spread in a few hours of movement. I find that very interesting, yes.
Never set more than 15% of my total account balance as a projected loss on any given open position. Including my spread costs
For example, the spread was 5 (might have been a bit lower at the time I think it's sitting around 2 right now)
The cost of spread which was included in the total 15% of my entire account balance at the time of the trade. Roughly 200k give or take a bit.
$5 X 505 = $2525 USD.
So roughly 40k would have been a loss at worst from a total balance of 200k