Calling all value/fundamental investors.
Haven't posted for a while but for those who remember Spreadsheet Guy, I'm back.
3 transactions in the last few days:
Taking any questions.
I want to own US equities but don't have the time at the moment to research individual companies so the SP500 is the next best option.
OFX is an interesting one. Think it's a great company, and bought it initially around $2. Has since had a takeover offer a few months ago. On one hand I'll make a quick dollar if the takeover goes through, otherwise I'm happy to hold for the long term.
WOW.. I'm unsure on. Pretty low conviction on this one. The concern is when I go to Woolworths stores they are legitimately shit. On the bright side we are buying when everyone hates it, so I can't see it being significantly derated from here.
Woolworths is Woolworths though - and that's why I have a reasonable sentiment. I don't give a fuck what people say about Aldi, some of the products from there taste like dogshit knockoffs.
OFX is interesting - just read the $3.50 to $3.70 target for takeover, could result in a handy little profit.
Do you try to put a certain amount of income in each month into the market?
Do you have any views on CCL?
Every dollar I can save each month gets poured into my margin loan account. The loan is so I can buy opportunistically (like last week).
On CCL, I'm pretty confident soft drinks are causing the obesity epidemic, and personally don't drink them. That's enough for me to put it in the "Nah" basket.
I only recently started a pf spready. Pretty barebones stuff at the moment.
OP, can you link to yours so I can cherry pick the formulae?
Nah don't want to get doxxed by some degenerate on here. Will answer any q's though. First tip is to 'unit'-ify your spreadsheet, so you can tell true performance.
I've been investing since 2010 and I've never had a conscious strategy.
Looking at my behaviour in the market I reckon my strategy is investment in industrials with growth potential. Capital growth is the only reason I invest, frankly.
I figured the Vanguard fund purchase would perform two functions: provide some overseas exposure, as well as act as a stabiliser of returns in case my stock picks all turned south. The Argo Infrastructure purchase was made out of a desire to hold less cash, and it was going for a 13pc discount to nta.
Mesoblast I am happy holding for another ten years. Their trials are well funded and they're sticking to their knitting instead of chasing trends.
STO and ORG are two huge clangers and big lessons for me. Will never buy another business that is reliant on a commodity again. Easier to just say no. In saying that, I just can't bring myself to sell and what would seem to be a cyclical low in the oil price. This is poor investing on my behalf here, speculating on commodity prices..
They both appear to be shit businesses that don't make any money. Not interested.
Also, RMD. Great company. Great result on Friday. I would own some myself but can't due to work restrictions.
Of all the (large cap) oil exposures on the ASX, Santos is the least attractive in spite of its massive depreciation.
The fact is that it has an equal chance of going bankrupt than it has of being taken over. And even if you waited for a great entry price to take advantage of a take over, there is the real risk that one purchases for $2.50, it proceeds to sink to $1.20 over six months and the buyer offers only $2.20 incl premium.
Guess that means you don't have strong sentiment on trying to catch BHP at the right price then.
I'm thinking SUN and NAB are looking cheap for what should be blue chip, but then again, all this crap about financial institutions taking it in the back of the head is a worry
It's an interesting portfolio. You clearly seek out exchanges (OFX, ASX) and marketplaces (TME, CAR. SYD can even be considered an endpoint of many marketplaces).
Of those types of business that you seek out, what are your criteria for appraising investment?
If you were to name the three main red flags that lead you to not invest in a stock, what would they be?
Just started investing, and I feel I have a harder time seeing weaknesses than strengths.
lowering 2016 smart phone shipment growth numbers (from 9% to 5% y/y) – taking AAPL, QCOM numbers down too. On AAPL, i think stock may be range bound this year as they deal with macro challenges, stronger dollar and possibly less exciting product cycle (vs recent larger screen). Get easier comps beginning March 2017 and likely strong support for stock around $75/share (6x TTM PE ex cash). Our FY16 iPhone shipments 207mm vs 230 mm in FY15.
AAPL: VZ numbers confirms iPhone upgrade cycle weakness – upgrade rate down 8.4% y/y (vs 9.8%). Overall smartphone sales/iPhone sales maybe down 10-20% y/y on this data. Maintain short selling rating and still think stock likely trades down from here.
Anyone with experience in the stock market, who feels they can contribute is invited to join our live group chatroom.
This think tank can make us all a lot of money.
Create a user name
Post it here, along with your level of experience
I would warn anyone with any sense to not join this group of misfits.
They are working with under 100k combined AUM and cannot hold their emotions when day-trading, the only sort of trading they do.
Not only this, but what you're doing is against the Securities and Exchange Commission's policies.
You all pick one stock and buy it at the same time and sell it at the same time.
Here is a paraphrased, yet accurate, generic chat:
a: What's on the watch-list boys?
a: When do I get in?
b: At open
c: Got it.
d: How many shares?
b: As many as you can afford.
b: Alright, time to unload boys.
b: Sell FREE now
a,c,d: On the way, hope RH fills my order.
Haha no we don't you fucking dumb dumb,
We argue about different stocks, go in and out whenever we personally decide.
We couldn't reach that level of organization nor agreement if we tried.
Christ, you must have been picked on a lot in high school
Any onlookers, look at the differences in composure between him and I.
You're grasping too much. I don't want to see this shit again.
Else "Jews Clues Inc." is going down. https://bizmemeblog.wordpress.com/about/
When creating your spreadsheet for your portfolio, do you manually enter the current price or do you link it from somewhere?
Can you link the sheet to google finance so that it automatically updates?
From what I've read I quite like The Intelligent Investor.
I'm looking ideally with business with a competitive advantage, no debt and companies that spin off large amounts of free cash flow. I think it's a coincidence that exchanges and online marketplaces meet these criteria.
From what I've learnt.. Remove all of these from your list and it's not a bad place to start: IPO's, resource/commodity based companies, companies that make no profit, large amounts of debt, anything that appears to be a fad.
I use the 'SMF' add in for excel, which automatically brings down prices from yahoo finance.
Keep in mind sell side/broker analysts don't know shit. They are just trying to sell a product. Encourage a trade. How do I know? I am one.
>Will the company be around for decades or drift into obscurity eventually?
Not sure I can answer that question. Everything will come to an end eventually. Luckily enough my investment thesis on Apple isn't predicated on it surviving perpetually.
I'm buying a company making $50b a year for $500b. Doesn't take a lot to go right for the investment to work out alright.
Putting that simplistic view of things aside, I'm a believer of the 'ecosystem' side of things. Everyone throws up the example of Nokia etc but in that case people can just pull out their sim card and put it into another phone. I have an iPhone, a mac, all my apps, apple music etc etc. There is a lot more 'stickiness' there. Not to mention the huge amount of corporates etc that are all locked into the iOS ecosystem now.
Apple on a 10%+ FCF yield is an extremely compelling investment for me. I'm happy to sit and wait while Apple buys back 10% of their free float every year. They don't need to post huge growth now to make satisfactory returns, given how cheap they are.
Dividends are paid against the margin loan. Therefore they increase the equity portion of the portfolio and increase performance.
A $1 dividend on $10 of equity would show up as 10% of performance in that particular month.
Thanks for your reply. I would be interested in your evaluation of a stock such as Sainsbury's in the UK.
It's a market leading supermarket chain (similar to your Coles in Aus) with strong profitability and a credible approach to new store openings (steady rate, not overly aggressive). https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ASBRY&ei=deulVsnJM8fGsAH53ZqwCQ
Just a quick glance surmisation would be great, so as to get a better understanding into how you sort your candidate stocks from those you pass on.