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Spreadsheet Guy is back
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You are currently reading a thread in /biz/ - Business & Finance

Thread replies: 51
Thread images: 3
Calling all value/fundamental investors.

Haven't posted for a while but for those who remember Spreadsheet Guy, I'm back.

3 transactions in the last few days:

$20k AAPL
$20k OFX
$20k IVV

Taking any questions.
>>
>>1055863
Thought process behind OFX and IVV purchases?

Is the ASX headed down or going back up in your view?
>>
>>1055863
Further to that, your views on WOW moving forward? I'm thinking of getting in - seems solid despite the gloom and fear mongering regarding Masters
>>
>>1055870

I want to own US equities but don't have the time at the moment to research individual companies so the SP500 is the next best option.

OFX is an interesting one. Think it's a great company, and bought it initially around $2. Has since had a takeover offer a few months ago. On one hand I'll make a quick dollar if the takeover goes through, otherwise I'm happy to hold for the long term.

WOW.. I'm unsure on. Pretty low conviction on this one. The concern is when I go to Woolworths stores they are legitimately shit. On the bright side we are buying when everyone hates it, so I can't see it being significantly derated from here.
>>
>>1055902
Woolworths is Woolworths though - and that's why I have a reasonable sentiment. I don't give a fuck what people say about Aldi, some of the products from there taste like dogshit knockoffs.

OFX is interesting - just read the $3.50 to $3.70 target for takeover, could result in a handy little profit.

Do you try to put a certain amount of income in each month into the market?

Do you have any views on CCL?
>>
>>1055906

Every dollar I can save each month gets poured into my margin loan account. The loan is so I can buy opportunistically (like last week).

On CCL, I'm pretty confident soft drinks are causing the obesity epidemic, and personally don't drink them. That's enough for me to put it in the "Nah" basket.
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I only recently started a pf spready. Pretty barebones stuff at the moment.

OP, can you link to yours so I can cherry pick the formulae?
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>>1055920

Nah don't want to get doxxed by some degenerate on here. Will answer any q's though. First tip is to 'unit'-ify your spreadsheet, so you can tell true performance.
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>>1055920
Out of curiosity, what's your strategy? I see you made a killing on Vocus but a couple of others have gone backwards
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>>1055936
You think STO will weather the storm? Someone else was mentioning they think Origin is going to bounce, but it looks like a long run home
>>
>>1055863
what do you think of LNY and RCE? LNY in particular is a weird one because its very very cheap but the company owns a massive gold ore field, they just havent quite been issued a license to mine it yet. theres a small discussion going on over here on it >>1055832
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>>1055937

I've been investing since 2010 and I've never had a conscious strategy.

Looking at my behaviour in the market I reckon my strategy is investment in industrials with growth potential. Capital growth is the only reason I invest, frankly.

I figured the Vanguard fund purchase would perform two functions: provide some overseas exposure, as well as act as a stabiliser of returns in case my stock picks all turned south. The Argo Infrastructure purchase was made out of a desire to hold less cash, and it was going for a 13pc discount to nta.

Mesoblast I am happy holding for another ten years. Their trials are well funded and they're sticking to their knitting instead of chasing trends.
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>>1055942
STO and ORG are two huge clangers and big lessons for me. Will never buy another business that is reliant on a commodity again. Easier to just say no. In saying that, I just can't bring myself to sell and what would seem to be a cyclical low in the oil price. This is poor investing on my behalf here, speculating on commodity prices..

>>1055944
They both appear to be shit businesses that don't make any money. Not interested.

>>1055920
Also, RMD. Great company. Great result on Friday. I would own some myself but can't due to work restrictions.
>>
>>1055942
>>1055948

Of all the (large cap) oil exposures on the ASX, Santos is the least attractive in spite of its massive depreciation.

The fact is that it has an equal chance of going bankrupt than it has of being taken over. And even if you waited for a great entry price to take advantage of a take over, there is the real risk that one purchases for $2.50, it proceeds to sink to $1.20 over six months and the buyer offers only $2.20 incl premium.
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>>1055948
Guess that means you don't have strong sentiment on trying to catch BHP at the right price then.

I'm thinking SUN and NAB are looking cheap for what should be blue chip, but then again, all this crap about financial institutions taking it in the back of the head is a worry
>>
spreadsheet guy what do you think of stock picking subscriptions such as the Motley Fool? Do you recommend any?
>>
>>1055936

I'm using Yahoo finance links to get current prices in my sheet, but I find that Excel usually freezes when auto-updating the links. Are there proper settings to avoid this?
>>
It's an interesting portfolio. You clearly seek out exchanges (OFX, ASX) and marketplaces (TME, CAR. SYD can even be considered an endpoint of many marketplaces).

Of those types of business that you seek out, what are your criteria for appraising investment?
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>>1055906
Wait a second... Woolworths is still in existence?
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>>1055902
>>1055906
Do you guys invest in American shares directly? I'm a Pomme and assume you're both Australians.
The only way I can seems to involve filling in tax forms.
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>>1056030
I don't do it, but the mechanism I think OP is using to do it is by investing a company that operates out of Australia, but invests in the S&P500.

So it's an indirect method.
>>
>>1055936
newfag here. How do you pick a company? How do you decide, for instance you have $5k AUD starting, say, I will put 50% of this here and the rest there...
>>
If you could please explain, do you account for your stocks dividends in your sheet, and if so, how?
>>
If you were to name the three main red flags that lead you to not invest in a stock, what would they be?
Just started investing, and I feel I have a harder time seeing weaknesses than strengths.
>>
>>1055863
lowering 2016 smart phone shipment growth numbers (from 9% to 5% y/y) – taking AAPL, QCOM numbers down too. On AAPL, i think stock may be range bound this year as they deal with macro challenges, stronger dollar and possibly less exciting product cycle (vs recent larger screen). Get easier comps beginning March 2017 and likely strong support for stock around $75/share (6x TTM PE ex cash). Our FY16 iPhone shipments 207mm vs 230 mm in FY15.

AAPL: VZ numbers confirms iPhone upgrade cycle weakness – upgrade rate down 8.4% y/y (vs 9.8%). Overall smartphone sales/iPhone sales maybe down 10-20% y/y on this data. Maintain short selling rating and still think stock likely trades down from here.
>>
>australian

Yeah, no. I'd rather take advice from the bobbleheads on cable tv.
>>
Your thoughts on the lasting power of Apple? Will the company be around for decades or drift into obscurity eventually?
>>
Notice

Anyone with experience in the stock market, who feels they can contribute is invited to join our live group chatroom.
This think tank can make us all a lot of money.

Download kik
Create a user name
Post it here, along with your level of experience
>>
>>1056363
I would warn anyone with any sense to not join this group of misfits.

They are working with under 100k combined AUM and cannot hold their emotions when day-trading, the only sort of trading they do.

Not only this, but what you're doing is against the Securities and Exchange Commission's policies.
>>
>>1056490
>>1056490
No it isn't shit mac, there is no semblance of trading at similar times. No pump and dump.

Yes we have some beginners, who are learning.

Christ does it just sucks being you?
>>
>>1056496
You all pick one stock and buy it at the same time and sell it at the same time.

Here is a paraphrased, yet accurate, generic chat:
a: What's on the watch-list boys?
b: FREE
a: When do I get in?
b: At open
c: Got it.
d: How many shares?
b: As many as you can afford.
(Later)
b: Alright, time to unload boys.
b: Sell FREE now
a,c,d: On the way, hope RH fills my order.
>>
>>1055936
Doxxed? Just put it in Google sheets. You can share spreadsheets. Just remove the stuff you don't want, make it public, post the link.
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>>1056500
Haha no we don't you fucking dumb dumb,
We argue about different stocks, go in and out whenever we personally decide.
We couldn't reach that level of organization nor agreement if we tried.

Christ, you must have been picked on a lot in high school
>>
>>1056505

Any onlookers, look at the differences in composure between him and I.

You're grasping too much. I don't want to see this shit again.

Else "Jews Clues Inc." is going down. https://bizmemeblog.wordpress.com/about/
>>
>>1056507
Fuck you Alex
>>
>>1055863
When creating your spreadsheet for your portfolio, do you manually enter the current price or do you link it from somewhere?

Can you link the sheet to google finance so that it automatically updates?
>>
>>1056505
Fuck the other guy, I'm interested.
Kochya
>>
>>1055963
From what I've read I quite like The Intelligent Investor.

>>1055966
I'm looking ideally with business with a competitive advantage, no debt and companies that spin off large amounts of free cash flow. I think it's a coincidence that exchanges and online marketplaces meet these criteria.

>>1056109
>>1056077
From what I've learnt.. Remove all of these from your list and it's not a bad place to start: IPO's, resource/commodity based companies, companies that make no profit, large amounts of debt, anything that appears to be a fad.

>>1056857
I use the 'SMF' add in for excel, which automatically brings down prices from yahoo finance.
>>
>>1056152
>quoting analysts
Keep in mind sell side/broker analysts don't know shit. They are just trying to sell a product. Encourage a trade. How do I know? I am one.

>>1056199
>Will the company be around for decades or drift into obscurity eventually?

Not sure I can answer that question. Everything will come to an end eventually. Luckily enough my investment thesis on Apple isn't predicated on it surviving perpetually.

I'm buying a company making $50b a year for $500b. Doesn't take a lot to go right for the investment to work out alright.

Putting that simplistic view of things aside, I'm a believer of the 'ecosystem' side of things. Everyone throws up the example of Nokia etc but in that case people can just pull out their sim card and put it into another phone. I have an iPhone, a mac, all my apps, apple music etc etc. There is a lot more 'stickiness' there. Not to mention the huge amount of corporates etc that are all locked into the iOS ecosystem now.

Apple on a 10%+ FCF yield is an extremely compelling investment for me. I'm happy to sit and wait while Apple buys back 10% of their free float every year. They don't need to post huge growth now to make satisfactory returns, given how cheap they are.

IMO..
>>
>>1056093
Dividends are paid against the margin loan. Therefore they increase the equity portion of the portfolio and increase performance.

A $1 dividend on $10 of equity would show up as 10% of performance in that particular month.
>>
What's your general spreadsheet layout.

What's your source to pull-in stock data from?
Also how do you fundamental analysis. Any particular online source you pull figures from?
>>
>>1055863
Awesome to see this is still live - even minus the hijacking attempt above.

Good work lads, awesome hearing the questions and answers
>>
>>1055863
Bump to save
>>
I love you spreadsheet guy. You should write a blog. Is there anywhere I can find updates from you? I would happily suck your dick (no homo)
>>
>>1055863
>3 transactions in the last few days:
>$20k AAPL
>$20k OFX
>$20k IVV

What are your thoughts on dollar cost averaging? Did you bulk buy 20k worth of apple in a single trade?
>>
>>1057706
want to know this too
>>
>>1055965
If it's excel for mac then its time to commit sudoku, it crashes if there's a gentle breeze
>>
Market down or up in the next week?
>>
>>1060231
Down. Happening, etc.
>>
Thanks for your reply. I would be interested in your evaluation of a stock such as Sainsbury's in the UK.

It's a market leading supermarket chain (similar to your Coles in Aus) with strong profitability and a credible approach to new store openings (steady rate, not overly aggressive). https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ASBRY&ei=deulVsnJM8fGsAH53ZqwCQ

Just a quick glance surmisation would be great, so as to get a better understanding into how you sort your candidate stocks from those you pass on.
>>
DWTI , FXP, YANG, etc.,
Thread replies: 51
Thread images: 3
Thread DB ID: 466656



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